On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
I think your math is a level above mine
And I dig the alternative perspective it's providing.
Personally I would love to watch this, I'd be more hyped for this than WCS, it's actually interesting.
That being said, people in general care too much about what other people think about them (sadly) and I don't think the potential for 100$ outweighs that. I think I would respect avilo for stepping up, but I'm not really sure how this whole thing started in the first place.
Also I hope the general vibe behind this kind of challenge is more of a friendly grudge than dudes just getting under each others skin and fucking with each other. Does anyone know what motivated TLO, has he said why he challenged?
What you guys think? SC2 needs some kind of rivalry huh? Remind me of old days, Idra rage etc. I believe people still miss that kind of negative emotions.
Well a rivalry usually implies that the people involved are somewhat competitive with one another, actually "trading blows" as it were in head-to-head matches. TLO, you know, not a big fan personally, but he's at least a professional player competing at a professional level. It's not even close. It'd be like TLO having a "rivalry" with Bogus or TaeJa in his prime or something, a laughable idea at best when the skillgap is so large.
Also I doubt brovilo will accept, didn't he literally scam his fans out of their money with some bullshit excuse?
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
Also I hope the general vibe behind this kind of challenge is more of a friendly grudge than dudes just getting under each others skin and fucking with each other. Does anyone know what motivated TLO, has he said why he challenged?
Probably has something to do with this game: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/150462369 @ 51m~ where TLO destroys him basically using queens and infestors only. Avilo then decides to rage about how imba zerg is without knowing who is opponent is, when it is clear he is totally being outplayed. Right before he leaves, TLO remarks that he'd hope he could win considering he is 6900 MMR.... which is uh... just a bit higher than avilo to be nice.. After TLO comes to avilo's stream to say he'd hope he could beat avilo with his MMR, avilo basically just begins insulting him like a child and calling him names due to the fact that TLO wasn't playing on an acc named TLO. Therefore, that is the only reason avilo lost. (???)
Honestly, Avilo has been tryharding way too much with his replies on reddit as of late with this situation by stating things like:
"i'm still the superior in every way, shape, and form, with the hottest SC2 stream, the hottest gf, the hottest innovative "creative" playstyles, and more."
"it's 2017 and idiots in the SC2 scene still think they're capable of attacking me or using my name to their benefit - and it always works out in my favor, deal with it. Every person that has done this has always made themselves look like a complete and utter fool and i think it's funny to call them out for the lil cucks that they are."
" I am of course always the superior Starcraft 2 player as well. In the end, someone like TLO is just salty af that i'm the most talked about person in the SC2 scene."
etc...
To be truthful, I didn't care too much about him being a complete idiot years before, because... well... we all knew he was stupid. However, when I see him insulting someone like TLO who is in the actual professional space in this manner it makes me want to set aside all of the times he has said things in a derogatory manner such as "faggot" and so on to random people on B.Net, and really, just really, really wish someone from TL would forward this idiot's behavior to someone at twitch tv and have him reap what he sowed with this kind of fake childish attitude. If he wants to act that way, it's obviously his choice, but if he isn't thinking ahead to what else could come with it.... not sure what to tell him.
With things like youtube ad revenues being pulled it's always a good thing to keep in mind that your "full time streamer job" or full time content creation only lasts as long as the foundation you have built for it can support. Unfortunately, I can't really see people continuing to support such behavior. As of late, the hate train really seems to be getting all over him on places such as reddit, and for good reason.
And here I thought TLO just wanted to make a fool of avilo because hes generally disliked, I come back here to find out that its even MORE warranted than normal!
Man, I want to see this happen. If avilo lost to five 6-pools in a row the tilt would be out of this world delicious.
On June 10 2017 23:31 AbouSV wrote: So he won't accept the challenge, and he won't even actually reply to it? Not surprising, but I had hope there!
1. No, it currently looks as he wont accept the challenge. 2. He did reply to it. He said during the stream in which he got challenged that he doesnt want to give TLO any attention (Here, realizes its TLO at ~1:07:00, gets the challenge at ~1:10:00), then left some sarcastic comments on his twitter and during the SSL finals he pretty much confirmed that in the Youtube Gaming chat. His reasons are that he "can´t win", because if he wins it is because of the handicap and not because he is good, and if he loses he ist just bad. The (potential) money isnt worth the loss of pride, dignity, whatever for him. Also, he doesn´t want to give TLO any attention, as he thinks that attention is the sole reason why TLO initiated the challenge.
Making stupid, borderline insulting comments on a twitter and speaking in a unrelated stream chat stream is not an actual reply, my point exactly.
Also, why is avilo always defended by <10 posts accounts?
Edit: I'm sorry I replied before looking at the stream VoD you pointed. He didn't read any tweet, he just openly insulted TLO and said that he TLO didn't stream sniped and played on a barcode he would have no chance of winning at all. So exactly the opposite of refusing a 1v1. That just made your post even worse :/
Yeah because TLO needs avilo to get attention... he may not have had the results ofHuk or Stephano but everybody knows him. Talking shit along those lines is just another way to make himself the laughing stock again.
On June 11 2017 00:12 AbouSV wrote: Making stupid, borderline insulting comments on a twitter and speaking in a unrelated stream chat stream is not an actual reply, my point exactly.
Also, why is avilo always defended by <10 posts accounts?
Edit: I'm sorry I replied before looking at the stream VoD you pointed. He didn't read any tweet, he just openly insulted TLO and said that he TLO didn't stream sniped and played on a barcode he would have no chance of winning at all. So exactly the opposite of refusing a 1v1. That just made your post even worse :/
I'm sorry if you understood me wrong. I didnt actually want to defend avilo (I´m none of his fans, and I despise his saltiness and his rudeness as much as most people), I just wanted to point out that he has stated his opinion about the match (because it seemed like you would not know that already). And that is what he did in both the VoD (hes really general, but he states that he doesnt want to give TLO attention) and the twitter comments (which are surely meant to criticize the challenge and thus point out that he won´t participate). And I dont really see in which way my post count does make my argument invalid, I just today decided to finally use my TL.net account after lurking for a long time and I think it's sad that this is used as an argument against me.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
This assumes they're independent probabilities though, right? But if you win game one and really tilt your opponent you'll have better odds for the next game. So maybe Avilo's chances are only 15% for game 1, but if he wins game 1 he'll tilt TLO and have 33% chance in game 2. Then if he wins that TLO will REALLY go on tilt, and avilo will have ~60% chance each game.
More significantly, I think a lot of the uncertainty in this case is in whether TLO's limitation is too great for his skill to overcome. So I might figure there's like a 2% chance that avilo finds some goody composition like hellion/ghost that just never, ever, ever dies to ling/queen, but if that happens he'll have a 90% chance every game because he just can't die. But if avilo doesn't find something like that it's like 100% that he doesn't win a game. So TLO would reasonably have 98% confidence that he'd win all 5 games, but avilo would have about a 1% chance of a 5-0.
I really just want TLO to do like a weekly TLAttack and play with goofy limitations against average players.
Don't use MMR as an argument for why TLO would win. If you've ever seen avilo play ladder, you might have noticed that he doesn't play all that serious, and sometimes decides to leave all games at the start versus Terran, Zerg, or Protoss, whichever tilted him that day :D
In fact I'm fairly confident avilo would be able to win at least 1 game.
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
False equivalency. FlaSh was god in a different game with a completely different set of intricacies, playstyles, tempo etc. TLO and Avilo have been playing the same game since it came out basically so it's easy to see where they stand. And again, not a TLO fan or even a fan of TL as a StarCraft 2 team, but it's painfully obvious that even at the lowest slump of his career he was still leaps and bounds ahead of Avilo at whatever would be considered his peak.
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: It was a shame reading TLO but now TT1 as well...
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
im a huge newb now , haven't played SC2 (competitively) since ~2012. i'd be willing to play ppl in BW tho..? :D
i was just giving my opinion on the matter seeing as it's an interesting discussion. its a fun way to gauge and evaluate the importance of mechanics in SC2 (which has historically been ridiculed for being a much easier game to play than BW, i personally think they're both hard games in different aspects).
and i dont really understand what Flash has to do with any of this, Flash played the game at the highest level (meaning he faced high end players). bit different than the scenario we're talking about.
On June 10 2017 00:26 KrOjah wrote: I think TLO might be pushing it a bit here. I fancy him to win a series 5-0 in a normal game, but with these restrictions? He must have some funky play planned to make him so confident.
Anyway I love grudge matches. One of my favourite gaming moments is a grudge match from the FGC:
I don't know jack about SF but I've watch this match 2 or 3 times so goooood
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: It was a shame reading TLO but now TT1 as well...
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
EPT
, haven't played SC2 (competitively) since ~2012. i'd be willing to play ppl in BW tho..? :D
