"... Yo @avilosc2 if you win 1 out of 5 games and I can't make anything but lings queens, roaches overseers and corruptors I give you 100$
and drones of course ..."
What you guys think? SC2 needs some kind of rivalry huh? Remind me of old days, Idra rage etc. I believe people still miss that kind of negative emotions.
If this showmatch is going to happen it will be very interesting to watch
I don't think TLO will win all 5 games, and if so Avilo will have the proof that Terran is inferior and Zerg superior balanced in this MU. At least Avilo can claim the strategy TLO uses is imba.
The scene needs more of these types of grudge matches. I wonder if bttv would cast such an event? Doesnt really matter though because avilo will probably dodge TLO.
nice initiative though!!
On June 09 2017 23:24 Zulu23 wrote: I don't think TLO will win all 5 games, and if so Avilo will have the proof that Terran is inferior and Zerg superior balanced in this MU. At least Avilo can claim the strategy TLO uses is imba.
TLO just needs to pull out some bs cheese builds in the first game or two to throw avilo on full tilt mode. shouldnt be that hard imo.
I haven't played sc2 regularly in teo years and when I did I was gold. I could probably cheese twice, tilt avilo then win the next 3 games however i want
On June 09 2017 23:40 Cricketer12 wrote: I haven't played sc2 regularly in teo years and when I did I was gold. I could probably cheese twice, tilt avilo then win the next 3 games however i want
Yeah. This is the best strategy. If you tilt him Game 1, I think the tilt would snowball for Avilo.
I think TLO might be pushing it a bit here. I fancy him to win a series 5-0 in a normal game, but with these restrictions? He must have some funky play planned to make him so confident.
Anyway I love grudge matches. One of my favourite gaming moments is a grudge match from the FGC:
On June 09 2017 23:24 Zulu23 wrote: Avilo will have the proof that Terran is inferior and Zerg superior balanced in this MU
But no one in their right mind can think that with these unit limitations. The correct conclusion would be that avilo doesn't know how to use the tools he's given because even when he's in a situation heavily imbalanced in his favor, he cannot solve it, so he ought not comment on balance.
The real thing throwing this off is the conditioning of each player. TLO's mechanics are a few tiers above avilo. But still, avilo bases his understanding of the balance of the game partially on what he's personally able to do so if that's shown to be severely lacking, again he ought not comment on balance. He does base some of his comments on pro play, but then we're back to his understanding of the game. TLO's mechanics are much better but if he's strategically playing with one hand tied behind his back, avilo should be able to cleverly exploit that if his understanding of the game is so deep, despite having worse mechanics.
Avilo won't accept it, because losing when your opponent has such handicap will leave him without excuses to his losses. He rather live in his desulion than face the reality that he's just a low GM player.
This reminds me Avilo whining to Catz about Queen and Catz beating him without making a single queen next game lol. Avilo never had balls to accept any challenge in the past and never will. TLO probably knows that but still, giving a low na gm player this much attention is really disappointing, especially from a serious player like TLO.
On June 10 2017 01:24 Aegwynn wrote: This reminds me Avilo whining to Catz about Queen and Catz beating him without making a single queen next game lol. Avilo never had balls to accept any challenge in the past and never will. TLO probably knows that but still, giving a low na gm player this much attention is really disappointing, especially from a serious player like TLO.
This wouldn't even be fair. TLO is 6k+ MMR. The difference between TLO and Avilo's Terran is bigger than the difference between Avilo's main race and his Zerg. TLO can probably beat Avilo regardless of race TLO use.
Besides, Avilo won't take up the challenge. His main sells to his audience is "look at me whine guys!" Most of his chat is just there to watch him rage, and only a small minority is there to watch him play lol. Avilo would just get smashed and then complain about whatever he lost to (or call TLO a streamcheater/sniper/hacker).
I offered $500 to Doctors Without Borders (event already happening/scheduled) just for facing me in a bo7. No other strings attached. When Avilo passive aggressively declined, other streamers took me up on the offer and ended up raising over 1K$ so credit to him for a net win.
The most noticable thing, is that it's actually a win win for Avilo. If if lose, he'll still get advertisement (no advertisement is bad advertisement, especially for him), and if he wins, then jackpot. Whereas TLO has nothing to win here, except maybe some peace for himself and all of us should avilo taste some forced humility.
Avilo won't accept it and honestly I wouldn't either. If you play in a showmatch where your opponent has such a handicap it's clear that the only purpose of the showmatch is to make fun of you. If he loses he'll be completely embarrassed and if he wins he gains nothing because everyone will (rightfully) say he won only because of the handicap.
On June 10 2017 04:03 Charoisaur wrote: Avilo won't accept it and honestly I wouldn't either. If you play in a showmatch where your opponent has such a handicap it's clear that the only purpose of the showmatch is to make fun of you. If he loses he'll be completely embarrassed and if he wins he gains nothing because everyone will (rightfully) say he won only because of the handicap.
To be fair the skill difference between them is such that any challenge format would be silly.
On June 10 2017 04:02 woopr wrote: clever by TLO to only offer $100 to avilo, when he knows the value of the attention he'll get by being in a showmatch with avilo will be far more than $100
i don't think avilo will let TLO leech off him for so little money tho
The "value" is probably negative as being anyhow associated with avilo can only hurt someone with TLOs popularity
TLO's level of play is much higher than Avilos. But even so, he could get lucky and win one game. However, if he loses them all, then with the handicap on TLO, he will be completely humiliated.
Of course, being Avilo is a handicap in itself, he tilts too often, and does not know the game as well as he thinks he does.
He basically mass queens, get some roach ravager, expanded all the map, and finished game with Queen / Infestor / Broodlord / Corruptor
I would say this particular game Avilo lost because he did absolutely no pressure to TLO, and went mass expand instead. Strategy actually often works against NA GM zergs, who prefer more aggresive styles, but failed against EU zerg style - mass drones, defend pushes with as low units as necessary and rape with tier 3 units and superior economy
Not sure if TLO is able to defeat Avilo using only roaches queens and corruptors though, he might actually loss to pure ground mech which avilo loves, without support of spellcaster units like vipers and infestors + artillery spells of ravagers, it will be very hard to do.
I guess TLO gonna try some allins with nydus worms / drops or "rat style" play like sending some burrow roaches here and there just to tilt Avilo.
Avilo wont play TLO, he's too afraid. And i dont even mean that as a dig against Avilo, its just the truth. I'd like to see it happen of course, but even though Avilo puts on a big show about how great he thinks he is, I'm pretty sure he knows TLO & players of that caliber are way out of his league.
fun initiative, but avilo thinks like a conspiracy theorist - their strength is twisting logic and reality to appear favorable toward them, and there are no conditions you can establish which will cause people like him to concede their own guilt or flaws. outside of putting his paranoia on display for people to laugh at, it wouldn't accomplish much else. and avilo is good enough at making a clown of himsrlf without TLO's help
On June 10 2017 04:03 Charoisaur wrote: Avilo won't accept it and honestly I wouldn't either. If you play in a showmatch where your opponent has such a handicap it's clear that the only purpose of the showmatch is to make fun of you. If he loses he'll be completely embarrassed and if he wins he gains nothing because everyone will (rightfully) say he won only because of the handicap.
To be fair the skill difference between them is such that any challenge format would be silly.
I vaguely remember something with a cool format between scan and kogeT, scan had to win like 15 maps in a row to take the showmatch victory
He'd be a fool to accept this though (so he just might), unless he really wants the money (600 bucks is 600 bucks), he has nothing to gain and all his dignity, whatever that even is for him, to lose.
On June 10 2017 07:17 fkncontraband wrote: Losing to only basic units would just feed the delusion of zvt imbalance. TLO's T vs avilo's Z would be better to disprove imbalance.
I think Avilo would have a better chance winning in a TvZ to be honest. Avilo's zerg is only lower master while TLO used to main Terran at a pro level.
This should happen. If he loses, so what, TLO has been a far better player than him anyway even with the conditions in place. And if Avilo manages to win, $600 ez.
It would be a lose-lose situation to stepping up and doing it.
Funny following this topic, it began as everyone saying it's a bad idea for TLO, and has shifted in to now everyone saying Avilo would be a fool to accept it...
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
With these limitations you could quite literally build a couple of cc's infront of your base, make turrets everywhere and camp in your own 2 bases whilst building to 200/200 pure tanks and thors, as the terran ground mecher. After that you can slowly push forward to a 3rd and a 4th. And sit back while the zerg throws useless army after useless army at you until all his 9+ or whatever bases are dried up. I know people like to think of Avilo as the far inferior player but there is no absolutely no way he would lose to a zerg 5 times in a row that has no tools to deal with a maxed out ground mech army.
I don't really see what TLO's is trying to do here apart from acting like a clown for our amusement (Admittedly this is funny). Even if he were to magically prove his point (even though it proves nothing even if he were to win 5 times) that Avilo has no business saying anything about the game, that would just mean that everyone who isn't atleast top 100 gm doesn't have the right to say anything. Which would also include the developers of this game.
It's a bad idea for both players if they cared at all about their reputation. But TLO has thrown that to the wayside lately in his crusade against Avilo's very existence. Avilo's reputation has always been in the gutter....So sure why not.
On June 10 2017 09:03 Lexender wrote: I'm not even sure what he is trying to prove with this.
That he is better than Avilo? I don't think anyone doubts that.
That he strat is imba? Wouldn't that just gave the reason to Avilo?
That mech is not viable in TvZ? Same thing as above.
I mean, I can see it for the money if avilo accepts the challenge but not if hes trying to make a point.
It would proof that avilo isn't good and this is the reason he is losing TvZ. Not swarmhosts, not ravagers... but his gameplay.
Even if Avilo loses those 5 games it doesn't mean he isn't good, it just means he lost 5 times in a row in a given day against TLO. He's a consistent low ranked Grandmaster playing a suboptimal style. Sure, he's not good enough to be near the actual pro scene, so what? TLO currently doesn't compare to the top pro's either does he? TLO is just another pro currently.
So when can you start blaming the game instead of yourself? When your top 10? top 20? top 50? And that also means that the current balance team has a useless opinion because they aren't top GM. Even David Kim who was a grandmaster with all races still has a useless opinion if he isn't as good as TLO if that is the ''proof'' we'll get out of him beating Avilo a couple of times.
This argument of getting gud before being allowed to say things about the game is asinine. I hope TLO is just acting like a clown for our entertainment or out of a grudge against Avilo.
People don't take Avilo's position on balance seriously not solely because hes not tip top tier, but because of his childish attitude and insistence on the game revolving around his own personal play style.
On June 10 2017 09:03 Lexender wrote: I'm not even sure what he is trying to prove with this.
That he is better than Avilo? I don't think anyone doubts that.
That he strat is imba? Wouldn't that just gave the reason to Avilo?
That mech is not viable in TvZ? Same thing as above.
I mean, I can see it for the money if avilo accepts the challenge but not if hes trying to make a point.
It would proof that avilo isn't good and this is the reason he is losing TvZ. Not swarmhosts, not ravagers... but his gameplay.
Even if Avilo loses those 5 games it doesn't mean he isn't good, it just means he lost 5 times in a row in a given day against TLO. He's a consistent low ranked Grandmaster playing a suboptimal style. Sure, he's not good enough to be near the actual pro scene, so what? TLO currently doesn't compare to the top pro's either does he? TLO is just another pro currently.
So when can you start blaming the game instead of yourself? When your top 10? top 20? top 50? And that also means that the current balance team has a useless opinion because they aren't top GM. Even David Kim who was a grandmaster with all races still has a useless opinion if he isn't as good as TLO if that is the ''proof'' we'll get out of him beating Avilo a couple of times.
This argument of getting gud before being allowed to say things about the game is asinine. I hope TLO is just acting like a clown for our entertainment or out of a grudge against Avilo.
I never said you cant have a clue about balance when not being good at gameplay yourself. But avilo does not lose because he is playing mech. He is losing because he isn't playing it very good. He leaves himself vulnerable to too many options. A good proof of mech being not as strong but still viable would be GuMiHo who can mech on highest level and still win maps with it. Surely its not a s tyle that will be applyable to any map or any meta but its not that it cannot be played.
But there is nothing wrong with it. Not every style has to be 100% viable. TLO is top 16 pros in Europe and currently (while he is known for inconsistency) shows really good results too. Last result was qualifying for Valencia.
So my 2 cents on it: Avilo has a bad mindset (for me he is all fake anyways tbh) , doesn't work on his game. Acts like a clown and blames games/opponent while in reality he is the problem. I don't blame him for being worse than he thinks he is but it is not starcrafts fault.
On June 10 2017 10:17 LongShot27 wrote: Im no avilo fan, by any means but TLO is gonna lose 100 bucks
When there's a big gap in skill it really doesn't matter.. he's just gonna roll him with superior mechanics. TLO's unit selection still allows him to play a very strong macro oriented/timing style. He'll just a-move him with way more shit, simple as that.
But well.. maybe avilo can get lucky 1 game (or maybe he could prepare snipe builds on certain maps, i dont think he's that type of player tho).
I for the life of me don't understand the opinion of people who say Avilo is a scrub because he's not Gumiho when it comes to mech. He's still a pretty good mech player (low GM guys for christ sake) regardless of his attitude. Sure he makes a lot of mistakes, but when you compare TLO to Dark or Soo we could say the same thing about him regardless of his status as top 16 EU.
Avilo's ''insistence'' on the game revoling around his own personal play style is both true and false. He very clearly wants a lot of things gone and he hates a great many things. But the same goes for stuff that is integral to his own play style. He hates mass raven and liberators which he uses/used all the time.
Avilo just has many dreams for Starcraft 2. Unfortunately Blizzard seemingly doesn't care about making big changes in SC2 anymore and that's their right. Who's to say that they are competent enough to make SC2 even better than it already is or if they can actually spare the people to think about and subsequently implement (Design) changes.
It can however not be denied that the current SC2 design has some questionable choices. I mean Stats vs Classic featured pylon overcharge rushes and mass late game air armies. Are we all truly of the opinion that this is what we wanted Starcraft 2 to be? Will starcraft 2 ever be just this good? Is this good, good enough?
Avilo clearly disagrees and that's why he's so vocal. What Avilo wants is a game with diverse strategy and less gimmicky stuff like the invincible nydus worm and other hard to scout all-ins. What he wants is Starcraft 2 LOTV to be a better version of SC2 than Heart of the Swarm was. Other than that he wants his losses to be such, so that he loses he still gets the feeling he was beaten by a better player instead of someone who plays an easy race or strategy. I don't know how realistic that is however since some strategies are just easier to execute than others mechanically.
I felt compelled to write all this because it seems to me that everyone is too blinded to actually perceive Avilo's existence for what it is. (like Take's fake personality claim are you serious?) Avilo has streamed for 4 years or something and your telling me he has the willpower to act so butthurt for so long compared to actually being for real? I'm sure that next you'll tell me he organized his tournament so that his act would be even more believable? Like seriously what did he stand to gain directly by hosting that tournament? Absolutely nothing. He did it to ignite a spark in the development of Starcraft 2 as a game.
I hope you all learned something today and you can finally stop bringing yourselves down by misinterpreting Avilo the entire time. It's gotten old.
On June 10 2017 10:17 LongShot27 wrote: Im no avilo fan, by any means but TLO is gonna lose 100 bucks
When there's a big gap in skill it really doesn't matter.. he's just gonna roll him with superior mechanics. TLO's unit selection still allows him to play a very strong macro oriented/timing style. He'll just a-move him with way more shit, simple as that.
But well.. maybe avilo can get lucky 1 game (or maybe he could prepare snipe builds on certain maps, i dont think he's that type of player tho).
TLO can't break through a fortified base without ravagers/ultralisks/muta/broodlord/infestor/banelings/viper/swarm host.
There is literally no way he can win. You can mass repair 2 command centers infront of your base against mass ling roach while tanks shell away at that army. (turrets in bases to defend against overlord drops or use vikings)
There is no feasible way for TLO to win even if he goes 5 hatch first. And avilo lets him drone without killing any.
The reason lings & roaches & queens with timings work against mech is because a mech player is afraid of an actual transition into higher tech units that can break defensive lines. If you hyper prepare for all that bullshit it's an auto win.
Hell all he needs to do is go skyterran first and then transition into mass tanks.
This ''challenge'' is a joke.
This ''gap'' between skill is a lot don't get me wrong. But it's not bronze vs gold. It's grandmaster vs grandmaster. These people know Starcraft 2 .
hes obviously gonna mix in nydus play to throw him off his game as well.. on top of doing normal roach timings and/or later timings.
and saying its grandmaster vs grandmaster isnt very accurate. it's a top foreigner grandmaster player (eu + na combined) vs a low NA grandmaster player.. big gap.
On June 10 2017 11:06 TT1 wrote: hes obviously gonna mix in nydus play to throw him off his game as well.. on top of doing normal roach timings and/or later timings.
and saying its grandmaster vs grandmaster isnt very accurate. it's a top foreigner grandmaster player (eu + na combined) vs a low NA grandmaster player.. big gap.
And how exactly can you throw in a nydus when your camping 2 bases with an air army? First off TLO wouldn't be able to get vision and second his nydus would just get build order countered (destroyed in seconds). later timings automatically don't work like I just told you since you can just wall off with command centers and repair those against lings and roaches. Early roach timings don't have a chance vs banshees.
Skyterran therefore counters everything TLO can do with just these units.
You clearly dont' understand when a gap between players is relevant and when it isn't. It's relevant when there's constant micro and constant battle that requires your attention in a lot of different places at once.
The game Avilo and TLO would play on these terms requires the multitasking a diamond player can bring to the table. Therefore the only thing that would be required is game knowledge. And even that is sparsely necessary because Avilo just needs to open air.
To put this in terms you'd understand. If there is no gain in micro managing your units all you have to do is A click. It doesn't matter if God almighty would be playing or if a bronze scrub would be playing. All that would need to be done is the same A click. A ling roach army vs a wall is just a single battle and it has the skillcap of a simple A click. There is no skill involved in this scenario so TLO gains nothing by being the better player.
The ''gap'' is therefore inconsequential. It would be consequential if it was bronze and gold because bronze people can't even macro properly. But grandmasters know how to spend their resources.
The fact that Byun for example is so good compared to others is because he can micro like a god while keeping his macro up. That's what seperates him from master players and most other grandmasters. Remove the need to micro all game long and you might aswell put any random masters player in his place.
no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
On June 10 2017 11:32 TT1 wrote: no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
Wow. Great argument. Okay, Good day.
I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent.
On June 10 2017 11:06 TT1 wrote: hes obviously gonna mix in nydus play to throw him off his game as well.. on top of doing normal roach timings and/or later timings.
and saying its grandmaster vs grandmaster isnt very accurate. it's a top foreigner grandmaster player (eu + na combined) vs a low NA grandmaster player.. big gap.
a buncha stuff
You probably shouldn't talk down to one of the best, previous NA players in the scene so much.... I would wager his understanding of the rules set up here are much better than yours... no matter how much you type... xD
On June 10 2017 11:32 TT1 wrote: no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
Wow. Great argument. Okay, Good day.
I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent.
Hilarious.
Yeah, see, it's not about 'argument' it's about understanding. Which you clearly have none of.
Avilo will never accept it. Because if he did and lost he couldn't con money out of people any more. So in the end intresting theory but it won't ever amount to anything
On June 10 2017 11:59 showstealer1829 wrote: It will never happen.
Avilo will never accept it. Because if he did and lost he couldn't con money out of people any more. So in the end intresting theory but it won't ever amount to anything
On June 10 2017 11:32 TT1 wrote: no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
Wow. Great argument. Okay, Good day.
I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent.
Hilarious.
User was warned for this post
youre arguing over builds and over theories, i'm telling you that's irrelevant because of their skill level. of course whether you choose to believe that or not is entirely up to you, everyone's entitled to their opinion.
my argument is based on my personal experience as a player tho, what's your argument based on? clearly TLO is eager to play the match and he seems to be extremely confident, why do you think that is?
mechanics are still a big part of the game, especially when you're facing extremely high level players. you're underestimating that fact.
avilo is a 1 dimensional player so this would actually be a good case study :D, it's highly unlikely that he'll prepare a cheesy build to steal a game.
Avilo should accept the challenge - I don't see how he can lose if he goes PF expand and turtles on 3-4 bases. All he needs is tanks + hellions behind PFs to hold the entire zerg swarm (no siege breaking units). Avilo can then safely tech to BCs + Ravens and use spellcaster energy to slowly whittle down TLOs army.
On June 10 2017 13:38 Azzur wrote: Avilo should accept the challenge - I don't see how he can lose if he goes PF expand and turtles on 3-4 bases. All he needs is tanks + hellions behind PFs to hold the entire zerg swarm (no siege breaking units). Avilo can then safely tech to BCs + Ravens and use spellcaster energy to slowly whittle down TLOs army.
the problem with that idea is that avilo would more likely than not go his usual suboptimal mech build where he has 1 tank and 4 hellions inside his main + 2-3 air units that will be nowhere near his main at 7 minutes when TLO's roaches show up, bust through his wall, kill all his ground units and get 15-20 SCV kills before avilo's air units can get back and kill the roaches.
On June 10 2017 13:37 TT1 wrote: avilo is a 1 dimensional player so this would actually be a good case study :D, it's highly unlikely that he'll prepare a cheesy build to steal a game.
If avilo wins a game with a dank meme build I will sub to his channel for 1 year even though I dont really watch.
On June 10 2017 11:32 TT1 wrote: no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
Wow. Great argument. Okay, Good day.
I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent.
Hilarious.
User was warned for this post
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm not sure why you choose to critique TT1's slight grammar error, when you yourself make some really odd choices in terms of grammar and sentence structure.
Like, "Okay, Good day."
Why is 'good' capitalized? It's not a proper noun, as far I can tell. Then, the next sentence you wrote is almost downright baffling:
"I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent."
Which, with some corrections, should read:
"I, too, can form ad hominem arguments. For example, I could say: 'You seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize the beginning of your sentences', but that would not be productive."
The sentence "it's extremely apparent" (which, ironically, is not capitalized at the beginning) can be omitted entirely. Furthermore, I think it would have been much more productive for you to reply with something along the lines of: "My level of skill may or may not have an influence on my opinion, however, that seems irrelevant to the larger point of my argument. Regardless of me being Bronze or Grandmaster, I do not think TLO can overcome the self-imposed handicaps he's placed upon himself to be victorious in every game. I may be wrong, but that remains to be seen."
On June 10 2017 11:32 TT1 wrote: no matter the amount of theorycrafting you want to do he still wont be able to overcome the skill gap. no offense but your perspective is that of a player who has never played a high level game of SC, it's extremely apparent.
Wow. Great argument. Okay, Good day.
I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent.
Hilarious.
User was warned for this post
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm not sure why you choose to critique TT1's slight grammar error, when you yourself make some really odd choices in terms of grammar and sentence structure.
Like, "Okay, Good day."
Why is 'good' capitalized? It's not a proper noun, as far I can tell. Then, the next sentence you wrote is almost downright baffling:
"I can do this too by the way, you seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize your sentences. it's extremely apparent."
Which, with some corrections, should read:
"I, too, can form ad hominem arguments. For example, I could say: 'You seem like an idiot because you don't capitalize the beginning of your sentences', but that would not be productive."
The sentence "it's extremely apparent" (which, ironically, is not capitalized at the beginning) can be omitted entirely. Furthermore, I think it would have been much more productive for you to reply with something along the lines of: "My level of skill may or may not have an influence on my opinion, however, that seems irrelevant to the larger point of my argument. Regardless of me being Bronze or Grandmaster, I do not think TLO can overcome the self-imposed handicaps he's placed upon himself to be victorious in every game. I may be wrong, but that remains to be seen."
On June 10 2017 11:59 showstealer1829 wrote: It will never happen.
Avilo will never accept it. Because if he did and lost he couldn't con money out of people any more. So in the end intresting theory but it won't ever amount to anything
Please elaborate how he cons people out of money?
I'd be here all day. A lot of his scams are well documented though, suffice to say he cons people out of money pretty much by existing.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
All you need to beat mech is Queens, Nydus and Roaches. As soon as the mech player moves out you kill his main then teleport back to yours.
If he does not move out you just take over the map and win by having twice the economy.
So basically it is not possible for Zerg to lose against mech if he does not screw up.
I do not understand what TLO tries to prove? Is his aim to prove that Zerg rolls over mech even without using Swarm Hosts and Vipers? I thought that was really quite obvious anyway?
Or is his goal to show that even low tier pro players are better than GM players? But that is also obvious.
On June 10 2017 18:53 MockHamill wrote: All you need to beat mech is Queens, Nydus and Roaches. As soon as the mech player moves out you kill his main then teleport back to yours.
If he does not move out you just take over the map and win by having twice the economy.
So basically it is not possible for Zerg to lose against mech if he does not screw up.
I do not understand what TLO tries to prove? Is his aim to prove that Zerg rolls over mech even without using Swarm Hosts and Vipers? I thought that was really quite obvious anyway?
Or is his goal to show that even low tier pro players are better than GM players? But that is also obvious.
TLO won a ladder game going roach/queen/infestor vs Avilo, who did some bizarro mass expand turtle build and just let the Zerg take over the map and Avilo spent the entire stream bitching about how OP "energy units" are for Zerg and Zerg can only win because of that, then he called him a retard. Basically Avilo went full Avilo. I guess TLO took offense.
No statement from avilow yet? I would love to see this happening!!!! Besides the reasoning on why any of them should do this and if any of the players proofs anything, I think the HYPE that this is creating is a good thing.
On June 10 2017 19:52 AlexGPunkt wrote: No statement from avilow yet? I would love to see this happening!!!! Besides the reasoning on why any of them should do this and if any of the players proofs anything, I think the HYPE that this is creating is a good thing.
im not sure but TLO is a top progamer and avilo is some big noob.i dont really understand what TLO is doing here except maybe getting some hype for him.^^ and so avilo haters can dinner him over and over.
On June 10 2017 19:52 AlexGPunkt wrote: No statement from avilow yet? I would love to see this happening!!!! Besides the reasoning on why any of them should do this and if any of the players proofs anything, I think the HYPE that this is creating is a good thing.
im not sure but TLO is a top progamer and avilo is some big noob.i dont really understand what TLO is doing here except maybe getting some hype for him.^^ and so avilo haters can dinner him over and over.
I get the reasoning and motivations pro and con for each side, I just dont care :D I like this grudge match and the Hype around it. My point is that it is a good thing for the scene.
On June 10 2017 18:53 MockHamill wrote: All you need to beat mech is Queens, Nydus and Roaches. As soon as the mech player moves out you kill his main then teleport back to yours.
If he does not move out you just take over the map and win by having twice the economy.
So basically it is not possible for Zerg to lose against mech if he does not screw up.
I do not understand what TLO tries to prove? Is his aim to prove that Zerg rolls over mech even without using Swarm Hosts and Vipers? I thought that was really quite obvious anyway?
Or is his goal to show that even low tier pro players are better than GM players? But that is also obvious.
TLO won a ladder game going roach/queen/infestor vs Avilo, who did some bizarro mass expand turtle build and just let the Zerg take over the map and Avilo spent the entire stream bitching about how OP "energy units" are for Zerg and Zerg can only win because of that, then he called him a retard. Basically Avilo went full Avilo. I guess TLO took offense.
It is also worth noting that TLO played on a smurf account, and when Avilo realized who it was he claimed that TLO stream sniped him and that he would beat him if they played a "real best of 5" under their actual names. I think that was the statement that triggered TLO to challenge him to a Bo5.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
And that calculation is even assuming that both players have the same chances on every map. If you manipulate that a bit (f. e. 1% on the first map for Avilo, 100% for him on every other map -> avilo still has 1% chance for 5-0) the chances for TLO are even smaller (0% in the example above). Poor guy, being really underestimated here. Makes me wonder what the Liquibets on this match would look like.
Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money.
My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses.
You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
I think your math is a level above mine
And I dig the alternative perspective it's providing.
Personally I would love to watch this, I'd be more hyped for this than WCS, it's actually interesting.
That being said, people in general care too much about what other people think about them (sadly) and I don't think the potential for 100$ outweighs that. I think I would respect avilo for stepping up, but I'm not really sure how this whole thing started in the first place.
Also I hope the general vibe behind this kind of challenge is more of a friendly grudge than dudes just getting under each others skin and fucking with each other. Does anyone know what motivated TLO, has he said why he challenged?
What you guys think? SC2 needs some kind of rivalry huh? Remind me of old days, Idra rage etc. I believe people still miss that kind of negative emotions.
Well a rivalry usually implies that the people involved are somewhat competitive with one another, actually "trading blows" as it were in head-to-head matches. TLO, you know, not a big fan personally, but he's at least a professional player competing at a professional level. It's not even close. It'd be like TLO having a "rivalry" with Bogus or TaeJa in his prime or something, a laughable idea at best when the skillgap is so large.
Also I doubt brovilo will accept, didn't he literally scam his fans out of their money with some bullshit excuse?
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
Also I hope the general vibe behind this kind of challenge is more of a friendly grudge than dudes just getting under each others skin and fucking with each other. Does anyone know what motivated TLO, has he said why he challenged?
Probably has something to do with this game: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/150462369 @ 51m~ where TLO destroys him basically using queens and infestors only. Avilo then decides to rage about how imba zerg is without knowing who is opponent is, when it is clear he is totally being outplayed. Right before he leaves, TLO remarks that he'd hope he could win considering he is 6900 MMR.... which is uh... just a bit higher than avilo to be nice.. After TLO comes to avilo's stream to say he'd hope he could beat avilo with his MMR, avilo basically just begins insulting him like a child and calling him names due to the fact that TLO wasn't playing on an acc named TLO. Therefore, that is the only reason avilo lost. (???)
Honestly, Avilo has been tryharding way too much with his replies on reddit as of late with this situation by stating things like:
"i'm still the superior in every way, shape, and form, with the hottest SC2 stream, the hottest gf, the hottest innovative "creative" playstyles, and more."
"it's 2017 and idiots in the SC2 scene still think they're capable of attacking me or using my name to their benefit - and it always works out in my favor, deal with it. Every person that has done this has always made themselves look like a complete and utter fool and i think it's funny to call them out for the lil cucks that they are."
" I am of course always the superior Starcraft 2 player as well. In the end, someone like TLO is just salty af that i'm the most talked about person in the SC2 scene."
etc...
To be truthful, I didn't care too much about him being a complete idiot years before, because... well... we all knew he was stupid. However, when I see him insulting someone like TLO who is in the actual professional space in this manner it makes me want to set aside all of the times he has said things in a derogatory manner such as "faggot" and so on to random people on B.Net, and really, just really, really wish someone from TL would forward this idiot's behavior to someone at twitch tv and have him reap what he sowed with this kind of fake childish attitude. If he wants to act that way, it's obviously his choice, but if he isn't thinking ahead to what else could come with it.... not sure what to tell him.
With things like youtube ad revenues being pulled it's always a good thing to keep in mind that your "full time streamer job" or full time content creation only lasts as long as the foundation you have built for it can support. Unfortunately, I can't really see people continuing to support such behavior. As of late, the hate train really seems to be getting all over him on places such as reddit, and for good reason.
And here I thought TLO just wanted to make a fool of avilo because hes generally disliked, I come back here to find out that its even MORE warranted than normal!
Man, I want to see this happen. If avilo lost to five 6-pools in a row the tilt would be out of this world delicious.
On June 10 2017 23:31 AbouSV wrote: So he won't accept the challenge, and he won't even actually reply to it? Not surprising, but I had hope there!
1. No, it currently looks as he wont accept the challenge. 2. He did reply to it. He said during the stream in which he got challenged that he doesnt want to give TLO any attention (Here, realizes its TLO at ~1:07:00, gets the challenge at ~1:10:00), then left some sarcastic comments on his twitter and during the SSL finals he pretty much confirmed that in the Youtube Gaming chat. His reasons are that he "can´t win", because if he wins it is because of the handicap and not because he is good, and if he loses he ist just bad. The (potential) money isnt worth the loss of pride, dignity, whatever for him. Also, he doesn´t want to give TLO any attention, as he thinks that attention is the sole reason why TLO initiated the challenge.
Making stupid, borderline insulting comments on a twitter and speaking in a unrelated stream chat stream is not an actual reply, my point exactly.
Also, why is avilo always defended by <10 posts accounts?
Edit: I'm sorry I replied before looking at the stream VoD you pointed. He didn't read any tweet, he just openly insulted TLO and said that he TLO didn't stream sniped and played on a barcode he would have no chance of winning at all. So exactly the opposite of refusing a 1v1. That just made your post even worse :/
Yeah because TLO needs avilo to get attention... he may not have had the results ofHuk or Stephano but everybody knows him. Talking shit along those lines is just another way to make himself the laughing stock again.
On June 11 2017 00:12 AbouSV wrote: Making stupid, borderline insulting comments on a twitter and speaking in a unrelated stream chat stream is not an actual reply, my point exactly.
Also, why is avilo always defended by <10 posts accounts?
Edit: I'm sorry I replied before looking at the stream VoD you pointed. He didn't read any tweet, he just openly insulted TLO and said that he TLO didn't stream sniped and played on a barcode he would have no chance of winning at all. So exactly the opposite of refusing a 1v1. That just made your post even worse :/
I'm sorry if you understood me wrong. I didnt actually want to defend avilo (I´m none of his fans, and I despise his saltiness and his rudeness as much as most people), I just wanted to point out that he has stated his opinion about the match (because it seemed like you would not know that already). And that is what he did in both the VoD (hes really general, but he states that he doesnt want to give TLO attention) and the twitter comments (which are surely meant to criticize the challenge and thus point out that he won´t participate). And I dont really see in which way my post count does make my argument invalid, I just today decided to finally use my TL.net account after lurking for a long time and I think it's sad that this is used as an argument against me.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
This assumes they're independent probabilities though, right? But if you win game one and really tilt your opponent you'll have better odds for the next game. So maybe Avilo's chances are only 15% for game 1, but if he wins game 1 he'll tilt TLO and have 33% chance in game 2. Then if he wins that TLO will REALLY go on tilt, and avilo will have ~60% chance each game.
More significantly, I think a lot of the uncertainty in this case is in whether TLO's limitation is too great for his skill to overcome. So I might figure there's like a 2% chance that avilo finds some goody composition like hellion/ghost that just never, ever, ever dies to ling/queen, but if that happens he'll have a 90% chance every game because he just can't die. But if avilo doesn't find something like that it's like 100% that he doesn't win a game. So TLO would reasonably have 98% confidence that he'd win all 5 games, but avilo would have about a 1% chance of a 5-0.
I really just want TLO to do like a weekly TLAttack and play with goofy limitations against average players.
Don't use MMR as an argument for why TLO would win. If you've ever seen avilo play ladder, you might have noticed that he doesn't play all that serious, and sometimes decides to leave all games at the start versus Terran, Zerg, or Protoss, whichever tilted him that day :D
In fact I'm fairly confident avilo would be able to win at least 1 game.
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
False equivalency. FlaSh was god in a different game with a completely different set of intricacies, playstyles, tempo etc. TLO and Avilo have been playing the same game since it came out basically so it's easy to see where they stand. And again, not a TLO fan or even a fan of TL as a StarCraft 2 team, but it's painfully obvious that even at the lowest slump of his career he was still leaps and bounds ahead of Avilo at whatever would be considered his peak.
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: It was a shame reading TLO but now TT1 as well...
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
im a huge newb now , haven't played SC2 (competitively) since ~2012. i'd be willing to play ppl in BW tho..? :D
i was just giving my opinion on the matter seeing as it's an interesting discussion. its a fun way to gauge and evaluate the importance of mechanics in SC2 (which has historically been ridiculed for being a much easier game to play than BW, i personally think they're both hard games in different aspects).
and i dont really understand what Flash has to do with any of this, Flash played the game at the highest level (meaning he faced high end players). bit different than the scenario we're talking about.
On June 10 2017 00:26 KrOjah wrote: I think TLO might be pushing it a bit here. I fancy him to win a series 5-0 in a normal game, but with these restrictions? He must have some funky play planned to make him so confident.
Anyway I love grudge matches. One of my favourite gaming moments is a grudge match from the FGC:
On June 10 2017 22:55 Sogetsu wrote: It was a shame reading TLO but now TT1 as well...
The skill gap is big but not that huge with the handicap he is giving, so I wouldn't be so sure TLO will win 5-0, reminds me of Flash when played SC2, he was "god" and what happened? Mechanically he was better than most players and it wasn't easy.
Also, not-that-good-pros mocking at someone like Avilo instead improving to not be ashamed when facing Koreans (or even other foreigners right now on top of them) is so silly to say the least.
I don't like Avilo, I don't even watch his streams, but sometimes he make good threads when talking for real in the forums, so he likes to act as a jerk and whinny guy sometimes and others he get serious, but it is his life, and I don't care that much about it.
I hope Avilo don't even waste time in this, because like a lot of people said, whatever is the result it will be Avilo a reason to claim stupid things or to whine about balance even more... Please, if you TT1 and TLO are so so good, go there and win something actually, or at least give us a decent showmatch vs Koreans.
If you saw the avilo games in the WCS qualifier versus Zergs that are way worse compared to TLO he still managed to get insanely pressured or lost maps to basically roaches while I wouldnt even call the zerg gameplay well rounded. If he is not directly playing a counter with the knowledge of restrictions TLO has there is a real good chance TLO will just win 5-0.
People thinking he will simply nydus really just underline their lack of knowledge with the reason being that the nydus is actually fairly easy to counter. Any cyclone opening or reactor cyclone will destroy it.
whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.
While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw.
But we will never find out because he wont play :S
On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote: Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money.
My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses.
You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen.
Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.
On June 10 2017 06:03 Riner1212 wrote: TLO what if avilo 5-0 you? then would you considering retiring from the sport?
there is that possibility lol.
The odds of that happening I would put at 1%. Avilo is awful when compared to pros who play the game. There is a reason he's always low GM. I would be shocked if TLO didn't 5-0 him. It's really not hard to beat Avilo.
If you say that the probability of avilo winning 5-0 is 1%, then you are saying that there is a 0.01^(1/5) = 40% chance for avilo winning one game. Which means a 1 - 0.01^(1/5) = 60% chance of TL winning one game. Which is a (1 - 0.01^(1/5))^5 = 8% chance of TLO winning 5 in a row. And that sounds pretty low, seeing how confident he is in the challenge.
So in conclusion, I think you are overestimating avilos chances with 1%.
This assumes they're independent probabilities though, right? But if you win game one and really tilt your opponent you'll have better odds for the next game. So maybe Avilo's chances are only 15% for game 1, but if he wins game 1 he'll tilt TLO and have 33% chance in game 2. Then if he wins that TLO will REALLY go on tilt, and avilo will have ~60% chance each game.
More significantly, I think a lot of the uncertainty in this case is in whether TLO's limitation is too great for his skill to overcome. So I might figure there's like a 2% chance that avilo finds some goody composition like hellion/ghost that just never, ever, ever dies to ling/queen, but if that happens he'll have a 90% chance every game because he just can't die. But if avilo doesn't find something like that it's like 100% that he doesn't win a game. So TLO would reasonably have 98% confidence that he'd win all 5 games, but avilo would have about a 1% chance of a 5-0.
I really just want TLO to do like a weekly TLAttack and play with goofy limitations against average players.
Yeah, it assumes independence. They did a study on that by looking at penalty shots in NBA, looking for "hot hands", checking if a player was more likely to land the penalty shot if they hit the previous one. iirc, there was some controversy on the analysis I remember, they first claimed an effect in the paper (as is customary...) but proper reanalysis then removed the effect. Or was it the other way around? Don't remember... Have a look at the wiki entry if you want to dig deeper. Either way the suggested signal was pretty small, so shouldn't affect it too much. It's very possible that avilo (and TLO for that matter) is less mentally composed than an NBA penalty shooter, so definitely a concern with the calculation, although probably not breaking it completely.
And yes, uncertainty in the single-game winrate propagates in fifth power to the 5-0 probability. As we saw, difference between 40% and 60% in single game makes the difference between 1% or 8% for 5-0. And as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty even in the single-game win probability. My argument was based on the confidence in TLO's challenge. I'd say TLO himself thinks he has at least 50% probability of 5-0. Which translates (with independence assumption) into a 87% single game winrate and 4*10^-5 probability for 0-5. So if we trust TLOs judgement, it'll be well below 1% (even accounting for reasonable tilt effects). As you say though, maybe TLOs estimate is off for the single-game winrate, and at that point it can be anything. And it's probably fair to say that it's more than 1% probability that TLOs estimate is quite off.
I also want TLattack back!! TLOwnage with the nuke rush and all that! :D
On June 10 2017 21:55 xelnaga_empire wrote: Avilo was watching the SSL finals tonight and was in the Youtube chat. More or less, he doesn't think he will get anything out of it. According to Avilo, if he wins, it was because TLO is handicapped. If TLO wins, then it will all be just a show to embarrass Avilo. He is not even interested in attempting to win the $600 (if that was the last reported amount of the prize from everybody contributing), even though he isn't risking his own money.
My guess is, Avilo values his pride more than the potential of winning $600. I would guess if the people who are donating money to the prize offer Avilo a minimum amount of money to simply participate in this show match, in addition to the total prize, Avilo may consider it. I don't know what this "minimum amount" is but you guys could probably negotiate this with Avilo. This way, Avilo walks away with something, even if he loses.
You can also increase the prize but I'm guessing Avilo feels even if you increase the prize, he may still walk away with nothing. This is why I suggest offering him a "minimum amount" for simply participating, separate of the total prize. Otherwise, I don't think this match is going to happen.
Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.
He said a few times something to the effect of: Mech is still broken, Solar is trash & Inno is so much better that he could just win with a bio push every game.
In other words: "of course he wins with his mech - but he's not doing it right really but he's so much better than this garbage zerg so he wins anyhow".
It struck me in the moment as exactly what needs to be true so that Avilo can be right & doesn't have to question himself.
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.
That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
hmm.. maybe giving vision to your opponent? if i wanted to prove that mechanics trump everything in BW, that's what i'd do.
While I believe TLO's mechanics are far superior avilo's mech style isn't really that heavy on mechanics but I feel his strategy is really lacking, especially if we consider mass roaches. He is going hellion heavy with 2 factories and late tanks which should be the biggest issue. At least from the WCS games I saw.
But we will never find out because he wont play :S
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.
That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.
I know that bio is not viable in BW TvP, that's why i used it.
Playing against even a low GM terran with roach ling? TLO is not making an easy bet, that's for sure.
On June 11 2017 10:48 RKC wrote: Can avilo even take down Livibee?
No, I saw the youtube video.
Also, absolutely nothing is at stake here besides egos. The only reason why it would be a "bad move" for either of them to do this is because of ego. Otherwise, it's just a couple of people playing StarCraft 2. JUST DO IT.
Just looking at this for what it is, If I'm a low GM streamer and a pro gamer is giving me a challenge "bo5" with tongue-in-cheek restrictions I'd totally do it even if there's no prize pool. What other stream offers this?
Did anyone cath what Avilo's thoughts were on Innovation's mech play? I'm curious if he thinks Solar is subpar compared to the hackers he faces in NA low GM or if he would acknowledge that it is possible to win with mech play if used correctly.
Here is your answer :
Low tier masters NA Zerg coulda put up more of a fight vs Innovation in those games...
On June 11 2017 08:18 Liquid`Drone wrote: whats the bw parallel to this? saying you're gonna win zvt with only hydra ling? tvp without vultures (or m&m?) zvp muta ling?
also, there should be a huuge difference between this type of self-imposed restriction being something you play with without announcing it, and stating the restriction as part of the challenge. The former I do very often, and then I can still beat opponents of comparable skill very often, but the latter really allows you to prepare a counter.
bio+wraiths terran in bw tvp, if we had to make a parallel.
That does not come close. Bio is not viable in Broodwar Terran vs Protoss - at least not on a good level. It can work as timing or in situations where you catch your opponent really offguard but not really as style. Chargelot + Storm is just too strong or reaver harassment.
It can happen! YOU make it happen! Just make a matcherino pot (you all send the money.. 5 bucks or whatever) they wait until the pot is around 1k and then agree on how to split the money...
Also please show courtesy towards people trying to save the gamer side of sc2 (grudge matches or other) i would type the morrow twit ch emote (RIGHT HERE right now) that shows this (u sub to morrow on twit ch, type morUp and you will see the emote! .. + Show Spoiler +
it showcases tlo's head in recognition
. <3
Same for struggling streamers on sc2.. give them an honorable way out (disclaimer: matcherino (and i get no `$ for typing this) would help provide this service)
if both players get money..
just ask for a best of 7 and both get fiftyfifty on the money donated (they play standard or with the limitations whatever)
and then you ll get your grudge match (got to do your part is what i mean)
Also, absolutely nothing is at stake here besides egos. The only reason why it would be a "bad move" for either of them to do this is because of ego. Otherwise, it's just a couple of people playing StarCraft 2. JUST DO IT.
It can happen! YOU make it happen! Just make a matcherino pot (you all send the money.. 5 bucks or whatever) they wait until the pot is around 1k and then agree on how to split the money...
Also please show courtesy towards people trying to save the gamer side of sc2 (grudge matches or other) i would type the morrow twit ch emote (RIGHT HERE right now) that shows this (u sub to morrow on twit ch, type morUp and you will see the emote! .. + Show Spoiler +
it showcases tlo's head in recognition
. <3
Same for struggling streamers on sc2.. give them an honorable way out (disclaimer: matcherino (and i get no `$ for typing this) would help provide this service)
if both players get money..
just ask for a best of 7 and both get fiftyfifty on the money donated (they play standard or with the limitations whatever)
and then you ll get your grudge match (got to do your part is what i mean)
MONEY MATCHES <3 ! I hope this become a thing in this scene. MM in smash bros are fucking legendary. SC2 need those tooo when players put a lot on the table and play the game with all they got! :D
On June 11 2017 21:31 TheKhyira wrote: I´m a little disappointed the mods are allowing this thread to continue when it involves slander and borderline harassment of a singled out persona.
I fully agree. It doesnt matter if you like or dislike the guy , but this topic turned into a witchhunt and a lot of users use the opportunity to rant and be insulting towards an user. "yes but avilo is toxic etc blablabla" that might be, but its no excuse to act the same way.
On June 11 2017 21:31 TheKhyira wrote: I´m a little disappointed the mods are allowing this thread to continue when it involves slander and borderline harassment of a singled out persona.
I fully agree. It doesnt matter if you like or dislike the guy , but this topic turned into a witchhunt and a lot of users use the opportunity to rant and be insulting towards an user. "yes but avilo is toxic etc blablabla" that might be, but its no excuse to act the same way.
Indeed, one could say this thread is bringing out the avilo in all of us.
On June 11 2017 21:31 TheKhyira wrote: I´m a little disappointed the mods are allowing this thread to continue when it involves slander and borderline harassment of a singled out persona.
Only because it involves TLO. I guess when the WCS system is catered to foreigners and they still can't place in anything this is what they do?
This is all TLO has going for him, so they let the thread keep going. Kind of shocked a "professional" team allows it. This is all he has done for the past month. And his results are not getting any better.
On June 11 2017 21:31 TheKhyira wrote: I´m a little disappointed the mods are allowing this thread to continue when it involves slander and borderline harassment of a singled out persona.
I fully agree. It doesnt matter if you like or dislike the guy , but this topic turned into a witchhunt and a lot of users use the opportunity to rant and be insulting towards an user. "yes but avilo is toxic etc blablabla" that might be, but its no excuse to act the same way.
Indeed, one could say this thread is bringing out the avilo in all of us.
... I'll see myself out
Sadly there are always people who wont find the appropriate tone. But it does not change the fact that most of the people posting here are excited for the possible match and behave in an ok manner.