NationWars IV - Group Stages

There are no brakes on the Nation Wars train. After Group Germany has concluded yesterday, we already move on to another explosive pool of teams in Group Korea.

The mighty and feared South Koreans showed once more that they can bleed even against inconspicuous opponents such as the new Croatian folk hero Ptak, who took two maps against the Koreans before finally being taken down. Brazil—an underdog of equal magnitude—will look to this tale for inspiration and guidance in their uphill battle against South Korea.

While the David versus Goliath theme is strong in the first match, the other half of the bracket is much different: Two great, northern StarCraft 2 nations face off with Canada and Sweden. Both have all killed one part of the Iberian Peninsula to qualify for this event—but now the North is divided and war must follow.

As always only two of the four teams can advance into the playoffs, and once more the group will be split into two match days—each day will see one team head into the playoffs, while history shall forget the other two.

South Korea vs Brazil

Team South Korea: ByuN | INnoVation | Zest
Team Brazil: Kelazhur | Erik | MasTeR

As always in this tournament series, Team South Korea has a target painted on its back and the team managing to eliminate the legendary country will earn enormous fame and glory. MarineLorD’s all kill against the Koreans in Nation Wars III won’t ever be forgotten, same as Ptak’s admirable resistance against them. Koreans do bleed the same way other players do, that has been well established, especially over the course of last year. With their infrastructure und decade-long way of practice and living shattered, Korea looks ripe for conquest.

But it is in times like these, when nations band together to make great things happen. Now, more than ever before, South Korea craves for victory in this competition to prove their supremacy not only to the world, but most of all to themselves. KeSPA, Proleague and StarLeague might be gone, but national pride is something held in high regard in Korea, and ByuN, INnoVation and Zest will do everything to keep this pride intact—to re-establish what has been damaged by the chaos of the last months.

If you thought a trio such as the Korean line-up could not be any more dangerous than it would be under regular circumstances, you were probably wrong. They’ll be out for vengeance, not against anyone in particular, but to make a point. If there is one weakness in this team, it’s that they couldn’t get one of their great Zerg players into the line-up because of the popularity voting contest, but other than that this is one national team to fear and respect. Korea brought a combination of one BlizzCon title, six Code S championships and six other Premier tournament triumphs.

Seeing as one of the Koreans is enough to take out Brazil by himself, the Latin Americans need a good and daring plan to get out of this mess in one piece. It’s not like Brazil is to be joked with: All things considered the Brazilians are a great eSport nation, with successes in CS:GO and Age of Empires II for instance, and they also have a very notable SC2 player and ace in Kelazhur. MarineLorD was able to turn the tide—against a weaker Korean line-up, it has to be said—and Ptak at least came close. So there is no question that it is inside the realm of possibility for the Brazilian Terran to manage to make an upset of unknown magnitude happen.

But what are the chances of the Koreans having another off day, while Kelazhur is playing the games of his life with very little back up? Erik and MasTeR surely are great players, but is quite unlikely that they can influence the outcome of this looming battle. They have flexibility and can try to tire the Korean out, sure. But winning? As a recent popular movie has stated: Rebellions are built on hope, and they have to take every chance that they can get, until none are left. Brazil cannot win. But Brazil can hope.

Canada vs Sweden

Team Canada: Scarlett | Semper | NoRegreT
Team Sweden: SortOf | Zanster | Namshar

Both Canada and Sweden have been great StarCraft 2 nations even in the beta of the game. But while Sweden most of the time had a broad line-up of talent, Canada’s strength mostly concentrated on a single player. It is like that even today. Scarlett, who recently qualified for GSL Code S in Korea, belongs to the absolute elite of non-Korean SC2 players and will certainly be Canada’s ace in this Great Northern Duel. Her guard of honour is not as well known or respected, but still a force to be reckoned with: Semper secured the qualification by all killing Portugal, NoRegreT has trained in Korea for a long time in 2016 and will be eager to show what he was able to learn on the worlds’ hardest ladder.

Since the Swedes have decided in rolling with a single-race line-up, Canada will have a solid advantage in the preparation game, knowing they cannot be surprised as easily. Scarlett has been in very good form against Zerg with a win rate in the mid-sixties percentagewise, and both the and NoRegreT have trained against some of the best Zergs on the planet daily in the last months.

But as good as that sounds, it may complicate things: 2016 has shown that Korean Zergs play very differently in many ways than their European counterparts, and if the two Canadian Zergs have adapted to the Korean way of playing, we may witness a clash of styles during these matches. If things go awry, there is still the only non-Zerg of the duel in Semper, who has a success rate of around 80% in recent matches against the race. Canada certainly looks ready to roll.

So does Sweden. After having fallen off of their top position in foreign StarCraft 2 in the last years, they seem to be in an upward trend again. Indeed, this looks like it may be their strongest line-up of the recent past. The fast SortOf, a veteran of the game, should be the ace at the moment and is known for his great macro capabilities. Equally fearsome are Zanster and Namshar, who have established themselves as very dangerous opponents in every European online tournament and qualifier, as well as in Swedish national events.

Having only one race to work with certainly hampers them, as they are going to be very predictable and easy to snipe. They do have some real quality Zerg play with a variance of styles to offer though, so at least in this regard they will be able to adapt a bit. Sweden is seeking to reclaim long lost glory, and the Great Northern Duel will be a testing ground for their ability to do so. Whatever team wins this… it won’t become easier in the next game.


Prediction

The Koreans won’t be stopped so early in the tournament if there is no miracle on behalf of the other nations in the group, and will be advance first. Behind them we should expect a close battle between Canada and Sweden, as Brazil may have one strong internationally known player, but lack the staying power and an overall solid line-up.

Between the two northern nations, the Swedes probably have the better team, as NoRegreT hasn’t exactly shown greatness over the last year despite the Korean practice, so the Canadians are at a disadvantage. They do have the star power in Scarlett though, and if the Nation Wars format rewards one thing, it’s star power.

Korea and Canada to advance!