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On October 25 2016 12:30 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 12:22 MLuneth wrote:On October 25 2016 10:44 Hider wrote:
Neeb is so hilariously overrated lol. I guess this is where the "choke" meme came from. Plebs actually think he is (by far) the best foreigner and so whenever he doesn't win a tournamnet he must be choking. He recently stomped his way through a tournament with a similar format to blizcon vs players similar to those he'll play at Blizzcon, the hype is justified He won KeSPA cup off the back of one match-up, his PvP. His PvZ has shown a lot of cracks recently especially in his games against Scarlett.
A number of Koreans have won their GSL off of the back of their strongest matchup(s). Zest won KeSPA cup off the back of PvP. The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement.
And yes, his PvZ doesn't look amazing right now, but I think there are a couple caveats. First, given its proximity to Blizzcon, he may not have practiced for this as hard as Scarlett might have. Second, Neeb and Scarlett were basically practice partners for a while, and team kills in the individual leagues ranged from great to wonky to completely one-sided. I remember in particular herO vs Byul was a stomp. (Though Zest vs TY was quite good).
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Absolutely insane ranking from TL!
http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/20340606/
I would agree with Neeb being rank 5 or so right after KeSPA cup, but I don't think you can ever rank him as number 2 with a single tournament win.
And after seeing him perform at WESG NA, it was a reminder that he has yet to prove himself as the best foreigner and is just not consistent enough to earn a top 5 spot imo.
His PvP is absolutely insane, but he is not the all around best foreigner imo, just too shaky for that.
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On October 25 2016 17:24 Musicus wrote:Absolutely insane ranking from TL! http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/20340606/I would agree with Neeb being rank 5 or so right after KeSPA cup, but I don't think you can ever rank him as number 2 with a single tournament win. And after seeing him perform at WESG NA, it was a reminder that he has yet to prove himself as the best foreigner and is just not consistent enough to earn a top 5 spot imo. His PvP is absolutely insane, but he is not the all around best foreigner imo, just too shaky for that.
Yeah Neeb is way too high at #2. I could see anything between 5 and 8.
Also the entire paragraph about Solar... Not a fan.
Even the article on battle.net is still in early access and has mistakes:
He reached the semifinals of both GSL seasons, beating Patience, Maru, and TY in the first, and besting sOs and TY in the second.
(those are in the wrong order)
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On October 25 2016 17:24 Musicus wrote:Absolutely insane ranking from TL! http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/20340606/I would agree with Neeb being rank 5 or so right after KeSPA cup, but I don't think you can ever rank him as number 2 with a single tournament win. And after seeing him perform at WESG NA, it was a reminder that he has yet to prove himself as the best foreigner and is just not consistent enough to earn a top 5 spot imo. His PvP is absolutely insane, but he is not the all around best foreigner imo, just too shaky for that.
Classic TL.
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Russian Federation1613 Posts
So, they made Power Rank by TL before TL? ;D
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On October 25 2016 12:22 MLuneth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 10:44 Hider wrote:
Neeb is so hilariously overrated lol. I guess this is where the "choke" meme came from. Plebs actually think he is (by far) the best foreigner and so whenever he doesn't win a tournamnet he must be choking. He recently stomped his way through a tournament with a similar format to blizcon vs players similar to those he'll play at Blizzcon, the hype is justified
"He won one tournament against koreans so he must be by far the best foreigner". It's the type of prediction made by people who are overly reliant on "storylines" rather than "raw data", and thus as a consequence heavily overrates a player.
But if you actually look at all of his results you realize two things:
1. Bracket was absolutely perfect for him - He only faced one top 15 player in the world (Stats) and won against him in his best matchup.
2. His overall results over the lats 3 months haven't been particularly great
Btw, Neeb's most recent offline result is losing to Scarlett in a bo5. And after losing 3-1 to Scarlett, he only barely managed to beat Kelazhur 3-2 to get 3rd place.
Even Aligulac - which heavily overrates foreigner over koreans - has dropped him down to 8th place in their rankings (which would be even lower if they improved the rating methdology). And this was the guy who just 2-4 months ago was top2!
But nonono, let's ignore most of his games played over that period and only take into account the results of one single tournament. Maybe uThermal was also the best foreigner after he won IEM Shanghai?
Btw, remember who Neeb beat in the Kespa Cup final: TRAP!!!!
If you are going to use the results of that one tournament and be consistent in your weightings, Trap must also be one of the best players in the world right (!) Otherwise he wouldn't have gotten that far.
According to the data, Nerchio is the strongest foreigner coming into this event with Neeb as #2. But none of them should be in the top 4.
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On October 25 2016 18:45 Jenia6109 wrote:
So, they made Power Rank by TL before TL? ;D
I think this is the normal and only PR from TL. It's just that they posted it on Bnet instead of on TL this time.
I'm kinda sad, since we won't have any pros commenting on TL to check Soularion's ego. Maybe they will speak about it during BlizzCon  .
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My rankings.
1. Ty
2. Byun
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. Patience
8. True
9. Dear
10. Neeb
11. Snute
12. Zest
13. Showtime
14. Violet
15. Elazer
16. Ptitdrogo
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On October 25 2016 19:19 Hider wrote:
My rankings.
1. Ty
2. Byun
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. Patience
8. True
9. Dear
10. Neeb
11. Snute
12. Zest
13. Violet
14. Elazer
15. Showtime
(16. Polt)
I assume PtitDrogo would also be #16?
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On October 25 2016 17:24 Musicus wrote:Absolutely insane ranking from TL! http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/20340606/I would agree with Neeb being rank 5 or so right after KeSPA cup, but I don't think you can ever rank him as number 2 with a single tournament win. And after seeing him perform at WESG NA, it was a reminder that he has yet to prove himself as the best foreigner and is just not consistent enough to earn a top 5 spot imo. His PvP is absolutely insane, but he is not the all around best foreigner imo, just too shaky for that.
Everytime I open a TL power rank I am trying to go in with a mindset of positivity. Trying to remember that these are volunteers doing their best and making the community a better place.
But then I see these absolute nonsense rankings over and over and I just go on monkeytilt becasue it's clear to me that TL writers actually don't go through all of the data.
There is no way a foreigner should be in the top 4. That's reserved to Byun, Ty, Dark and Solar which have shown over the last 6 months that they are the tier 1 players.
When it comes to tier 2, we can have a debate. Right after Kespa Cup, you could make a case for Neeb at #5, but since then his results have been lackluster.
Maybe TL should actually start to pay their writers just a bit for making articles so we can demand that there is actual research behind them? Instead of just them needing to rely on the results of one tournament/the easiest narratives.
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Usually when people make predictions - that i consider ridiculous - I always recommend them to put their money where their mouth is (hence betting on them). If one has enough confidence in their assesments of player strenght, then they "should" be able to make a solid profit.
Imo betting is the best way to eliminate "wrong" opinions because those who are wrong quite often will be forced to acknowledge their ignorance quite quickly - otherwise they will go broke. But when ignorance is "free", there is nothing that forces people to change their methdology.
However, in this case bookmakers also overrate Neeb (still not by as much as TL does), so I guess TL writers doesn't have the opportunity to be rich after Blizzcon.
Source: http://www.bet365.dk/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10325427235
I assume PtitDrogo would also be #16?
Yes, just edited. Also put Showtime higher on the list.
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The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement.
It means that Neeb can probably beat everyone in a PvP, but I don't see him beating any of the korean Zergs or Terrans (at least he is a heavy underdog).
On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underdog ofc).
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On October 25 2016 20:03 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement. On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underddog ofc).
I dunno. Patience and maru beat him very hard. His best matchup against koreans is ZvP. Thats the only matchup I could favour him in
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On October 25 2016 20:14 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 20:03 Hider wrote:The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement. On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underddog ofc). I dunno. Patience and maru beat him very hard. His best matchup against koreans is ZvP. Thats the only matchup I could favour him in
Patience, yes. Maru? Not really.
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On October 25 2016 20:14 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 20:03 Hider wrote:The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement. On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underddog ofc). I dunno. Patience and maru beat him very hard. His best matchup against koreans is ZvP. Thats the only matchup I could favour him in
Eh, he is 2-2 vs Maru over the last 2 months. 1-0 vs Byun.
And if you take a wider look at his match history, you generally see he has very good results against some of the better terrans out there.
I find it problematic when people make predictions only based on the very few games they have watched of him rather than just skimming through his match history.
http://aligulac.com/players/26-Nerchio/results/
On the other hand Neeb can barely beat Kelazhur and losses to Scarlett.
Nerchio is like 35-3 over the last 2 months against terrans of equal or higher skill than Kelazhur.
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Although to be fair, I still give Neeb good odds to advance from his group (because honestly it's just not the hardest group for him).
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On October 25 2016 20:41 Elentos wrote:
Although to be fair, I still give Neeb good odds to advance from his group (because honestly it's just not the hardest group for him).
If goes against Patience and Zest I could see him go 4-0 / 4-1 in his group. In my powerrank I didn't really consider the difficulty of the groups... Oh well...
Neeb at Rank 2 is still weird, imo. I also think Snute is too inconsistent lately to be ranked at Rank 10. Surprising that Dark is number 1 in so many rankings.
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On October 25 2016 20:59 Firlefanz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 20:41 Elentos wrote:
Although to be fair, I still give Neeb good odds to advance from his group (because honestly it's just not the hardest group for him). If goes against Patience and Zest I could see him go 4-0 / 4-1 in his group. In my powerrank I didn't really consider the difficulty of the groups... Oh well... Neeb at Rank 2 is still weird, imo. I also think Snute is too inconsistent lately to be ranked at Rank 10. Surprising that Dark is number 1 in so many rankings.
He could also lose to Patience. Let's not make it out to be that he is invincible in the matchup as he actually lost to Patience in Shoutcraft 10 days ago.
He probably still go out of groups, but anything could happen.
Also if TL did take groups into account (which you normally don't in PR), it would have to be specifically stated. So most likely they just think Neeb is fantastic because he won Kespa Cup.
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No matter in what order do you put Dark. Byun, Solar, and TY it will still be arguable, so they are simply the top 4.
About the rest, its about who have a higher chance getting out of his group.
The only reason why I don't believe that much in Nerchio is because he is in a very hard group.
Knocking out TY or Solar will be an achievement for him.
For almost the same reason I think Neeb will get to the RO8, his group isn't that hard for him, and he will play his best match-up at least once, I bet that he will play PvP twice in that group (which means he have a very good chance of getting to the RO8).
Yes I know Neeb lost to Scarlett and so on, but I don't think it reflects that much upon what is going to happen in Blizzcon.
In the WESG qualifiers Neebs goal was to qualify, so I don't think he cared that much about his match vs Scarlett, I bet he was already preparing to Blizzcon (like he had that much time for it with these 2 events happening almost in the same week).
For example, Dark didn't even qualify to the Kespa Cup, but it doesn't mean he will do his worst in Blizzcon,
If I have to bet Neeb will be the only foreigner in the RO8, although I hope I'm wrong (may be Snute can prove me wrong, or Nerchio will do the impossible).
From there on, it depends upon the bracket. If the 4 players I mentioned as the top 4 doesn't meet each other in the RO8, they will probably be in the Semis, and from there nothing will surprise me.
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Yes I know Neeb lost to Scarlett and so on, but I don't think it reflects that much upon what is going to happen in Blizzcon.
In the WESG qualifiers Neebs goal was to qualify, so I don't think he cared that much about his match vs Scarlett,
Yes he didnt' care about winning extra dollar at all but on the other hand cares alot about doing well in online tournaments....
Yes, this is the classic "he was probably saving strats for xxx"-logic (which most people by now have made a meme of becasue it's 100% a result of bias).
Further, if you through his past data results, you see that him and Scarlett have played a ton of close matches. It's close to 50-50 between him. Not really particularly surprising that Neeb lost to Scarlett.
Nerchio probably could also easily have won Kespa Cup but just didn't feel like it as he wanted his opponents to underrestimate him going into Blizzcon.
For almost the same reason I think Neeb will get to the RO8, his group isn't that hard for him,
Also just lost to True less than 2 days ago in a bo5.
obviously still has a better chance of going out of group than Nerchio but that's not what powerranks are about.
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EPT
