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On October 25 2016 20:29 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 20:14 Fango wrote:On October 25 2016 20:03 Hider wrote:The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement. On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underddog ofc). I dunno. Patience and maru beat him very hard. His best matchup against koreans is ZvP. Thats the only matchup I could favour him in Eh, he is 2-2 vs Maru over the last 2 months. 1-0 vs Byun. And if you take a wider look at his match history, you generally see he has very good results against some of the better terrans out there. I find it problematic when people make predictions only based on the very few games they have watched of him rather than just skimming through his match history. http://aligulac.com/players/26-Nerchio/results/ On the other hand Neeb can barely beat Kelazhur and losses to Scarlett. Nerchio is like 35-3 over the last 2 months against terrans of equal or higher skill than Kelazhur.
Maru destroyed him in the series they played, that third map made the game look broken (even when Maru admitted he only practiced his TvP for that day, thinking he would face Patience>Classic)
You can't decide purely based of winrates. Nerchio and Byun have the most inflated winrates because 90% of games they play are against B/C tier players. What top level guys has Nerchio beat in his entire career? Classic? Is that really it?
If Nerchio loses to Scarlett, Snute, Lilbow, and MarineLord in a bo5 series with at least a week of practice, then he has zero chance against the top starleague guys. I'm just gonna say it. B tier Koreans maybe, but not Byun, TY, Dark, Solar, and Stats.
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On October 25 2016 21:21 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 20:29 Hider wrote:On October 25 2016 20:14 Fango wrote:On October 25 2016 20:03 Hider wrote:The fact that they played their best matchups does not diminish their achievement. On the other hand, I think Nerchio on a good day can beat everyone (he has a chance vs the top 4 players - still a small underddog ofc). I dunno. Patience and maru beat him very hard. His best matchup against koreans is ZvP. Thats the only matchup I could favour him in Eh, he is 2-2 vs Maru over the last 2 months. 1-0 vs Byun. And if you take a wider look at his match history, you generally see he has very good results against some of the better terrans out there. I find it problematic when people make predictions only based on the very few games they have watched of him rather than just skimming through his match history. http://aligulac.com/players/26-Nerchio/results/ On the other hand Neeb can barely beat Kelazhur and losses to Scarlett. Nerchio is like 35-3 over the last 2 months against terrans of equal or higher skill than Kelazhur. Maru destroyed him in the series they played, that third map made the game look broken
The first map was 28 minutes long and Maru was behind for like 23 of those 28 minutes, he barely won because Nerchio messed up. He then lost the next map. And then he had that game 3 which was the only one where he won convincingly.
That is so far off from any definition of "He destroyed him" I could agree with.
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You can't decide purely based of winrates. Nerchio and Byun have the most inflated winrates because 90% of games they play are against B/C tier players
I don't, hence the criteria was better than Kelazhur. Just look through the data yourself.
What top level guys has Nerchio beat in his entire career? Classic? Is that really it?
Well given how highly you seem to value Neeb, it should be pointed out that Nerchio won 6-3 against Neeb in their most recent encounter.
But your methodology is just flawed. Your just nitpicking very specific results instead of just taking a broader view of all of the matches both players have played, and then weighted them based on opponents skill level and date.
When you have a large sample size, you don't sit there and overanalyze 1-2 games. No (!) - you let data speak for it self.
And Neeb's recent overall results have been mediocre - hence why his ELO ranking has gone down.
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On October 25 2016 21:12 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +Yes I know Neeb lost to Scarlett and so on, but I don't think it reflects that much upon what is going to happen in Blizzcon.
In the WESG qualifiers Neebs goal was to qualify, so I don't think he cared that much about his match vs Scarlett, Yes he didnt' care about winning extra dollar at all but on the other hand cares alot about doing well in online tournaments.... Yes, this is the classic "he was probably saving strats for xxx"-logic (which most people by now have made a meme of becasue it's 100% a result of bias). Further, if you through his past data results, you see that him and Scarlett have played a ton of close matches. It's close to 50-50 between him. Not really particularly surprising that Neeb lost to Scarlett. Nerchio probably could also easily have won Kespa Cup but just didn't feel like it as he wanted his opponents to underrestimate him going into Blizzcon. Show nested quote +For almost the same reason I think Neeb will get to the RO8, his group isn't that hard for him, Also just lost to True less than 2 days ago in a bo5. obviously still has a better chance of going out of group than Nerchio but that's not what powerranks are about.
Interesting, how do you explain that Dark didn't even qualify to the Kespa cup, he could earn money there as well.
And what is that comment about Nerchio has to do with anything I said?
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Interesting, how do you explain that Dark didn't even qualify to the Kespa cup, he could earn money there as well.
He was hiding strategies for blizzcon.
Or maybe he just lost because favourites don't win 100% of their games. So variance is a factor. Sometimes uThermal also wins a tournament, but that doesn't mean he is the best foreigner.
Variance seems to be such an ackward concept for some people to understand. Just because you win against a top 5 player, doesn't make a you a top 5 player.
And this only becomes more problematic when (a) people don't look at the data but just follow lazy narratives/the few games they have watched (neeb wins over koreans --> must be the best) and (b) we are assessing an NA player and usually they are more likely to be overrated if they do well than koreans.
To prove the latter point, if Trap had won against Neeb in the final. Noone in their right mind would put him in the top 5 going into Blizzcon.
Hence why the stupid "choke"-thing ever became a meme. People must really have thought Neeb was "supposed" to win all of the foreign tournaments but just didn't win because he was "choking".
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On October 25 2016 21:47 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +Interesting, how do you explain that Dark didn't even qualify to the Kespa cup, he could earn money there as well. He was hiding strategies for blizzcon. Or maybe he just lost because favourites don't win 100% of their games. So variance is a factor. Sometimes uThermal also wins a tournament, but that doesn't mean he is the best foreigner. Variance seems to be such an ackward concept for some people to understand. Just because you win against a top 5 player, doesn't make a you a top 5 player.... And that's literraly all Neeb has done (of "positive things" over the last 2 months. 1 win against a top 5 player. But then you start to count of his "bad results", and reasonable people will see that there is just no way this guy is in the top 5.
If he did, why did he even participated in the Global qualifiers, and won 2 matches there?
And its quite interesting that when it comes to Dark, then its variance, but when it comes to Nerchio being close 1 map from the RO8 of Kespa Cup, then he was destroyed. Isn't it bias?
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If he did, why did he even participated in the Global qualifiers, and won 2 games there?
Your sarcasm detector is off. Maybe you should have read all of my post and not just the first line?
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A question for everyone having Neeb in the top 4-5 in your power ranking (and taking it seriously - if just made a random list w/e), and especially this is a question to TL writers.
If Trap had beat Neeb in the finals (and for w/e reason gone to Blizzcon), where woud you have ranked Trap.
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I have Neeb in my top 5 but i agree with you that the recent online results make this questionable.
But i wanted to change my list a bit till deadline anyway, i am only confident in my top4 at this point for the same reasons you already gave
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On October 25 2016 17:24 Musicus wrote:Absolutely insane ranking from TL! http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/20340606/I would agree with Neeb being rank 5 or so right after KeSPA cup, but I don't think you can ever rank him as number 2 with a single tournament win. And after seeing him perform at WESG NA, it was a reminder that he has yet to prove himself as the best foreigner and is just not consistent enough to earn a top 5 spot imo. His PvP is absolutely insane, but he is not the all around best foreigner imo, just too shaky for that.
ByuN and Stats are a bit low and Neeb a bit high, but overall not terrible
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On October 25 2016 22:25 The_Red_Viper wrote:
I have Neeb in my top 5 but i agree with you that the recent online results make this questionable.
But i wanted to change my list a bit till deadline anyway, i am only confident in my top4 at this point for the same reasons you already gave
The tournament where he lost to Scarlett and barely won against Kelazhur was actually offline.
Anyway, as I previously mentioned I am also "OK" with placing Neeb at 5th right after Kespa Cup. Personally that would still be slightly more optimistic than where I would have ranked him, but - back then - it was within the borders of reason.
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On October 25 2016 22:03 Hider wrote:
A question for everyone having Neeb in the top 4-5 in your power ranking (and taking it seriously - if just made a random list w/e), and especially this is a question to TL writers.
If Trap had beat Neeb in the finals (and for w/e reason gone to Blizzcon), where woud you have ranked Trap.
Can't remember where I put Neeb but trap is prob 7th
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Check out TL's description of Byun
His run through GSL Season 2 saw him almost become the indisputable best player in the world, but he fell from that height just as fast. He lost a big match against Zest in KeSPA Cup and faltered in a tight set against Dark in Cross-Finals,
So going 1-4 vs Zest and 2-3 vs Dark takes you from "clearly the best player in the world" to 4th???
I guess TL would have ranked Trap in the top 2 as well if Trap had beaten neeb in the final.
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On October 25 2016 22:41 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 22:25 The_Red_Viper wrote:
I have Neeb in my top 5 but i agree with you that the recent online results make this questionable.
But i wanted to change my list a bit till deadline anyway, i am only confident in my top4 at this point for the same reasons you already gave The tournament where he lost to Scarlett and barely won against Kelazhur was actually offline. But as I pointed out, I am also "OK" with placing Neeb at 5th right after Kespa Cup. Personally that would still be slightly more optimistic than where I would have ranked him, but back then, it was within the borders of reason.
Haha fair enough, i didn't follow the recent events too much. In general it's really hard to rank the foreigners with the koreans, especially now that the korean lvl seems to be a bit lower than usual.
TY, Dark, Solar and Byun are ahead of everyone and then it gets hard imo.
I hope and think that this community PR will be better than the TL one (sry TL  )
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Articles (whether TL or not) are not meant to be 'Statistic analysis master degree final exam', but they can give any of the following: background, recent form, general information, humour, hype, and, yes, biais (the subjective one, not the mathematical one).
Someone good at stats can do the math himself. If not, the details of such an abstract article would just be pointless to read anyway.
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On October 25 2016 22:45 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +His run through GSL Season 2 saw him almost become the indisputable best player in the world, but he fell from that height just as fast. He lost a big match against Zest in KeSPA Cup and faltered in a tight set against Dark in Cross-Finals, So one loss to Zest and a loss to Dark takes you from "clearly the best player in the world" to 4th??? Really TL? I guess TL would have ranked Trap in the top 2 as well if Trap had beaten neeb in the final.
Trap had a harder run to the finals than Neeb (harder qualifiers, too), with wins over Solar, Patience and TY. So you could almost justify that.
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Haha fair enough, i didn't follow the recent events too much. In general it's really hard to rank the foreigners with the koreans, especially now that the korean lvl seems to be a bit lower than usual.
Sure. One way is to look at Aligulac and then subtract a few points from those who often play with foreigners/online games.
E.g. subtract 50-100 points from all foreigners + Byun.
With that method I think you end up with a relatively decent power ranking.
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On October 25 2016 22:51 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2016 22:45 Hider wrote:His run through GSL Season 2 saw him almost become the indisputable best player in the world, but he fell from that height just as fast. He lost a big match against Zest in KeSPA Cup and faltered in a tight set against Dark in Cross-Finals, So one loss to Zest and a loss to Dark takes you from "clearly the best player in the world" to 4th??? Really TL? I guess TL would have ranked Trap in the top 2 as well if Trap had beaten neeb in the final. Trap had a harder run to the finals than Neeb (harder qualifiers, too), with wins over Solar, Patience and TY. So you could almost justify that.
If Neeb could get #2 with an easier schedule, why not top 1 then?
And obviously my follow up question, would Trap then be a favourite (have 50%+ chance) to beat players like Byun, Solar, Dark and Ty at Blizzcon?
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I hope and think that this community PR will be better than the TL one (sry TL )
Can I change my Neeb rating to 16th to bring the average further down
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On October 25 2016 22:58 Hider wrote:Show nested quote +I hope and think that this community PR will be better than the TL one (sry TL ) Can I change my Neeb rating to 16th to bring the average further down
Haha if you think you have the job to "correct" the current trend
But i think it will be ok tbh.
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EPT
