By the Numbers

Since Starcraft is a game of numbers (well, in some sense), it seems there is no more proper way to introduce the match at hand than with a statistics dump. But while numbers and match histories tell some part of the story, they aren't always the greatest indicators. In the cases of players with few or no recent games, we're reduced to nothing more than educated guesswork. But if Starcraft is a game of numbers, then Starcraft articles belong to the game of guessing. As if things weren't complicated enough, SK Telecom and Afreeca Freecs are as different as any teams you could ever find in Proleague. Stardom vs grit. Wealth vs poverty. Golds against the mid-table dirt. Yet both are here, fighting as equals. Do the numbers even matter?

Maybe! Without further ado:

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Classic

PvP: 65% (11-6) in games, 71% (5-2) in matches
PvT: 9-7 (56%) in games, 4-3 (57%) in matches
PvZ: 100% (4-0) in games, 100% (3-0) in matches

Classic looks on track to reach another Starleague finals, only suffering occasional hiccups in Proleague. In GSL and SSL he remains stable and exhibits a form that should assure even the most jaded fan. His most recent games include shut-out victories against Losira, ByuL, and even Curious himself. If they wanted to start the match off with a safe win, Classic was their best choice bar none.


Zoun

PvP: No recorded games.
PvT: No recorded games.
PvZ: No recorded games.

Look further back for the SKT mystery player, and the outlook remains gloomy if you're a fan of either the team or the player. But all cannot be as bad as it may seem. Given that SKT have chosen to field Zoun over MyuNgSiK and Impact, we can only assume that his winrate in practice is higher than the aforementioned 0% in two of three matchups. He has been fielded four times in the past, for a total 50% winrate – wins against San and DeParture, losses against sOs and Maru. It's not a glorious record and it doesn't speak great volumes about his prowess, but at the very least it indicates baseline competence. It wouldn't be the first time, and certainly not the last, that a near-unknown, untested player has come through for his team against a favored opponent.


INnoVation

TvZ: 10–7 (59%) in games, 6–3 (67%) in matches
TvP: 5–8 (38%) in games, 2–5 (29%) in matches
TvT: 10–5 (67%) in games, 7–3 (70%) in matches

Somehow, INnoVation has lost every game he has played against Patience in his career. For a player of his stature and success, that seems a bizarre coincidence fluke. It's even odder given that the sets were two years apart and played out in different versions. Ordinarily it would be difficult to play up Patience as the favorite to beat INnoVation in this match, given that many pegged the guy for retirement long ago, but his recent form against Terran has been astonishingly good. Meanwhile, the Terran boasts a victory against Dear in Proleague to offset his earlier 0-2 loss against Trap in Code A. What does this all mean for the storied champion? Hard to say. Intuitively I would claim that InnoVation is always a favorite, and his track record of performing in Proleague far outstrips Patience's. It's left to the man himself to prove me right.


Dark

ZvP: 6-7 (46%) in games, 3-3 (50%) in matches
ZvT: 9-6 (60%) in games, 3-2 (60%) in matches
ZvZ: 3-2 (60%) in games, 2-2 (50%) in matches

With his Bo5 victories against INnoVation and TY, the Proleague loss against aLive back in early June looks more like a fluke than anything worth reading into. Just yesterday he seemed en route to concluding that he is – and remains – a force to be reckoned with in ZvT. Unfortunately he met ByuN in the Winners Match, and subsequently dropped out of the group. It seems absurd to favor aLive in a high-stakes game against Dark but I do have some reservations concerning his mental fortitude, at least right now.


soO

ZvZ: 6-7 (46%) in games, 0-5 (0%) in matches
ZvP: 5-1 (83%) in games, 4-1 (80%) in matches
ZvT: 8–15 (35%) in games, 5–9 (36%) in matches


As opposed to the doubt soO garnered before his later finals appearances in 2014, I have a feeling (only partly justified) that he is, and will always be, a safer bet in a Proleague playoffs game than Symbol. His 6-7 record since the beginning of June is lackluster, and the fact that he hasn't actually won a series since then even more so. But given that he could win almost half of the games regardless, he should be able to scrounge up a win against Symbol. Of course, the best case scenario for SKT involves leaving him on the bench entirely.


Dream

TvP: 0-2 (0%) in games, 0-2 (0%) in matches.
TvT: 4-2 (67%) in games, 4–2 (67%) in matches
TvZ: 1-2 (33%) in games, 0-1 (0%) in matches.

Pitted against Bomber, Dream seems like a shoo-in for a win. His TvT form seems stable if not miraculous, which should be more than enough against his stumbling opponent.



Curious

ZvP: 5-5 (50%) in games, 4-4 (50%) in matches
ZvT: 4-4 (50%) in games, 3-2 (60%) in matches
ZvZ: 2-2 (50%) in games, 2-1 (67%) in matches

As the backbone of Afreeca's roster Curious has provided the most stable performance for his team this season, an unspectacular but reliable 7-7 total. Alongside Super, he makes up what you would call the team's ace duo. If there is a player you'd want to field against Classic, it is Curious.


Super

PvP 6-9 (40%) in games, 3-7 (30%) in matches
PvT 6-3 (67%) in games, 4-2 (67%) in matches
PvZ 3-6 (33%) in games, 2-4 (33%) in matches

Against a player with as abysmal a winrate as Zoun, most matches would seem predetermined. In this particular setting though, Super would do well to consider what tricks and strategies the SKT side have cooked up for their mystery man. It's a fine line to walk, though: there is always the chance Zoun will throw a straightforward fastball, and Super will be stuck looking for the phantom curveball.


Patience

PvP 2-7 (22%) in games, 1-5 (17%) in matches
PvT 7-5 (58%) in games, 4-2 (67%) in matches
PvZ 5-1 (83%) in games, 3-0 (100%) in matches

Given his historical record against the man and current PvT form, Afreeca has inexplicably drawn the longest straw by matching Patience up against InnoVation. He looks not so secure in PvZ or PvP, which leads me to think that Afreeca were hoping for Dream or INnoVation all along. Given that he has more than pulled his weight thus far, his name should inspire more confidence in this scenario.


aLive

TvP 50.00% 6-6 (50%) in games, 2-3 (40%) in matches
TvT 3-4 (43%) in games, 2-2 (50%) in matches
TvZ 6-3 (67%) in games, 4-1 (80%) in matches

aLive is truly the epitome of up and down. From the very first (some would say the only) event he truly made a mark on, he has alternated periods of invisibility with perplexing streaks of good performances. Right now it's hard to say that Dark, a ZvT prodigy, is a safe bet. Somehow, aLive makes himself enough of a prospect for victory that the ambiguity becomes part of the match. Is the game up to Dark, whose performance can be questionable when it matters? Or is it in aLive's court, a ”will he or won't he?” kind of conundrum?


Symbol

ZvP: 1-3 (25%) in games, 0-1 (0%) in matches
ZvT: 0-2 (0%) in games, 0-1 (0%) in matches
ZvZ: 0-1 (0%) in games, 0-1 (0%) in matches


In recent months, Symbol hasn't done much to improve his reputation. His offline games are few and far between, and none of them paint a glorifying picture. On this old-school roster of stars past their 2012 glory, Symbol is in good company. The rest of his team mates boast inspiring stories, tales of victory in the face of adversity, and success despite all odds. Despite the numbers Afreeca is the ultimate team of perseverance, and I don't doubt for a second that Symbol will embody that particular virtue with any tool available.


Bomber

TvP: 6-8 (43%) in games, 2-4 (33%) in matches
TvT: 0-7 (0%) in games, 0-4 (0%) in matches
TvZ: 1-1 (50%) in games, 1-1 (50%) in matches

With any player possessing as much experience as Bomber, it's unwise to say he doesn't still have fight in his hands or a trick up his sleeve. However, his recent games in TvT tell a rather depressing story. Matching up against Dream could be a boon – a chance to prove that he's neither down nor out – or a slap in the face. The Afreeca Terran will need to pull something out that is at least a tier above his recent form if the series comes down to him.

Return of the Freecs

With all due respect to SK Telecom T1, KT Rolster and Jin Air Green Wings, the one team whose efforts must truly be commended this season is Afreeca. Founded as a last minute solution to replace the disbanded Sbenu in the Proleague lineup, Afreeca have managed to claw themselves into the Playoffs over Kespa teams Samsung Galaxy and CJ Entus, despite this being their very first season. Right off the bat Afreeca qualified for the Round 1 playoffs and have held on to that spot. They've beaten every other team this season, even the ones outscoring them in the ranking. All this despite being absolutely shafted by KT Rolster five days after their Afreeca takeover in potentially the worst swap deal ever made, as Afreeca gave up Leenock for Life. What seemed a very good trade at first quickly turned catastrophic when Life was found guilty of match-fixing and was never seen near a professional StarCraft game ever again.

Without a big ace player, Afreeca adapted the same strategy Sbenu had before, gathering what appeared to be a 2011/12 all star roster compiled of everyone still active. Patience joined the team in March, followed by Symbol in April, completing their roster of misfits and old men. As if lifted to greater strength by pure spite, Afreeca suddenly put up results nobody expected. A clean 3-0 over Jin Air in Round 1 started off what was to be an unexpectedly successful season for them. Their recipe proved effective: instead of staking their chances on Life alone, their entire roster chimed in with wins. Not one player ranks in the top 15 individual players for the entirety of the season: Super, with an 8-11 record, is their highest scorer at rank 16. Nobody can boast a winning record. Yet Afreeca finished six points above CJ Entus and eleven above Samsung.

Breaking down their record you can clearly see why Afreeca are here, despite all odds, even with statistics not in their favor.

Billowy's 1-3 record is one of the weakest all season. but the one game he did secure sealed a 3-1 victory over CJ in Round 1. Afreeca finished in fourth place for that round on map difference. By one single map. Without that map, Afreeca would be behind CJ in the final ranking and eliminated. Billowy, what a god.

Patience, who was brought in before Round 2, contributed a stable 6-7 record and showed up especially big against SKT in Round 3, taking them to an ace match and finishing them off himself. That win made the difference between third and fifth place. Without that ace match win, Afreeca would not be in the playoffs.

Super (8-11) and Curious (7-7) were the backbone of their roster. They contributed three ace match wins as well as regular kills to their lineup which, considering how tightly contested the mid-table spots are, made all the difference. At least one of them featured in every single one of Afreeca's victories. Three of their total seven victories were won by either Curious or Super in ace matches.

aLive (5-7) closed out a 3-0 sweep of Jin Air against Cure, took out Dark to set up their win over SKT in Round 3, beat Reality to set up their win over Samsung, and outfoxed Losira to set up their win over KT.

Bomber (4-7) closed out a win over MVP in Round 1, and set up another win over them in Round 2.

KeeN (3-3) took a map in their victory over CJ and took a vital map off Stats in Round 1.

Every one of their players (except DRGLing, who hasn't featured at all) has contributed something significant to their fourth place finish. With no superstars their ability to pick up wins through team effort, especially against teams that are stacked with high-caliber players, needs to be highlighted. Afreeca have done what most deemed impossible. They come into these Playoffs as an underdog, but a team that has beaten everyone else before. They will need sharp preparation and big performances to do it again, but they should at the very least take confidence from those previous victories.

What started out as nothing but a bunch of misfits on a team whose main purpose was to fill a void, has become a force to be reckoned with. Despite lacking a championship caliber player, despite losing one of their best to KT before the season started, despite a weak Round 2, they made it.

2012 called. They want their trophies back.

System Reboot

It’s difficult to fully grasp the scale of SKT’s fall from grace. Events fresh in the memory tend to dominate our thoughts, and thus flashbacks from their calamitous Round 3 headline their start to the Proleague Season Playoffs. It’s hard to even think of them as major challengers for the 2016 title: KT and Jin Air’s iron grip on the teamleague domain has been that absolute. It’s hard to remember the team that won the final two rounds of SPL ‘14. It’s hard to remember the team that was only denied ultimate glory that year by an audacious 2 rax on a four player map. It’s hard to remember the team that strolled to victory last year, destroying all comers without shifting out of second gear. When confronted with the failures of the present, comforts of the past pale in comparison.

The strangest thing about SKT’s collapse this year is that it goes completely against all our opinions of their structure last year. Typically the very best teams build around a couple of all-star players, supported by a cadre of players consistent and unpredictable enough to take enough wins to make up the balance. Picture 2014 KT Rolster—Stats, TY and Action ably propping up Flash and Zest at the top end—or the Jin Air of last year, with Cure and Trap behind their golden trio.

SKT defied that title-winning formula, assembling the most potent lineup of stars we’ve ever seen. Sure, they gave Impact, Zoun, and Sorry a few shots, all the better to prep them for the Bo7 Season Playoffs, but their foundation of five aces simply gave them too much firepower for the rest of the league to handle. To recap a couple stats from last season, there were seven players with 20 or more wins for the season: two on CJ Entus (ByuL and herO), two on KT (Zest and Stats), and all three of Jin Air’s core members (Rogue / Maru / sOs). The fact that no SKT members managed the feat is incredible, explained by the fact that of the seven players who had winrates at or above 65% (minimum of 15 games played), four played for SKT. Other teams rely on their big players to bail them out whereas SKT possessed so much talent, the chances of everyone misfiring on game-day was practically nil. Appearances and wins were doled out arbitrarily, with some excellent management from iloveoov to keep the squad happy. It was a fact borne out by the elegance of their ace match record. SKT went 5-1 with a win each for Classic, Dream, INnoVation, soO and Dark.

That’s why their fall in 2016 has been quite so dramatic. It’s normal for some players to drop a bit following the changes of LotV; nobody expected them all to fade away (excepting Dark). But behind the turmoil of their Proleague failures in the second half of the season, it’s clear that the cogs of the telecom machine are starting to turn again.

Dark’s looking strong in the SSL, gunning to be the first player to retain a starleague title since NesTea in 2011. Classic is one of the two players left alive in both starleagues alongside Dear, and will go up against Dark for a spot in the finals.* INnoVation was ominously efficient in his seven game win streak during Shoutcraft Kings July, showing us glimpses of a player lost to bizarre seeding and the reduced Korean schedule. soO remains a formidable ZvZer, and one itching to take his crown back from Rogue. Dream is the sole member left scratching for a place on the roster, but let's not forget this has happened before. He had abysmal form heading into the Grand Finals last year, yet pulled out the clutch mech win against Maru.

Moving to the best-of-seven format, the benchwarmers must play a crucial role. MyuNgSiK’s a wildcard who can never be truly counted out (see his 4-0 in his GSL Ro.32 group), and Impact probably won’t be deployed despite the sporadic promise he’s shown throughout the year. That’s even before we get to Zoun’s second-ever televised appearance for SKT, as he’s been given the nod for Sunday’s opener. We saw a couple of great performances from his brief time on Prime before SKT snapped him up; hopefully he’ll have used the downtime to good effect. For the first time in a while, there's a sense of unpredictability surrounding this roster. If they perform as they did before the break, there's no doubt that they'll fall short. The more tantalizing image is that of an SKT who do not bow before the pressure, a team who will return to their glorious peaks of 2015.

So while SKT flopped their way to the regular season finish line, don’t write them off just yet. They remain the defending champions. They are still packed with talent. It’s a long road back to the summit, but the path to glory remains clear. Beat Afreeca. Beat KT. Advance to take on Jin Air in a Proleague Finals—a scenario that they haven’t lost in for two years. And if they manage to run the gauntlet right to the top, wouldn’t that be the stuff of champions?

* With this, SKT is guaranteed to have a fifth player in the finals in five seasons.

Predictions

Classic > Curious
Zoun < Super
INnoVation > Patience
Dark > aLive
soO > Symbol

SKT 4 - 1 Afreeca

SKT to lead 1-0 in this Best of 3 ahead of Monday's All-Kill match.