May the Best Player Win?

by Soularion

Safe Favorites

Upsets in these matches are almost unthinkable. The favorites are such established players facing underdogs that are much less so, that anything but a win for them would be monumental.

Nerchio vs Cyan (WCS: #2 vs #39)

With Valencia, Nerchio has finally claimed the one thing missing from his otherwise sublime LotV record - a big title - and done so in dominant fashion. Not only did he crush a red hot MarineLorD in the finals, but he convincingly disposed of PtitDrogo and beat his new rival ShoWTimE in yet another nail-biting series. Nerchio's ridiculous winrate in LotV (73% in games, 83% in matches) is actually best represented by his ZvP, capping out near 75%. A sketchy set against Welmu in WCS Regionals shows that he isn't immortal, but Cyan's middling form doesn't make him a particularly strong candidate for an upset over the Polish Zerg.

Looking Forward: Nerchio will most likely face a bracket of viOLet, and then either Snute or Elazer, if he does defeat Cyan. Because of this, a finals appearance is very important - it would confirm his ZvZ as strong enough to overcome its slightly volatile nature and strong competition in other top Zergs.


Hydra vs EnDerr (WCS: #5 vs #35)

This matchup is disgusting. While Hydra's struggles over LotV are very well-documented and continue well into the present, he still holds a 75% winrate in ZvZ in a scene with quite a lot of top-tier Zergs. EnDerr on the other hand still hasn't broken 60%, even with significantly less competition in the SEA region. His qualifier run may have shown him victories over NXZ and PiG, but Hydra is still the enormous favorite. Considering that Hydra has played - and defeated - EnDerr in the past, it's even difficult to argue in favor of an odd style disrupting the champion. Hydra might be struggling, but he should still comfortably make the quarterfinals.

Looking Forward: Barring a big upset, Hydra should face off against Neeb in the quarterfinals. Considering that Neeb has knocked him out of both WCS Spring and DH Valencia, a third loss would be rather humiliating for Hydra while a win would restore some faith going into WCS Summer.


Lean Favorites

These matches all have clear favorites. Upsets are within the realm of possibility, but we would still be extremely surprised if they happened.

Neeb vs TooDming (WCS: #6 vs #21)

Neeb had a ridiculous 35-series win-streak going into his match against MarineLorD, including a 6-1 over ByuN online, wins over much of the European elite, and continued domination of Hydra. Still, his PvZ is his statistically weakest matchup in LotV (fueled at least partially by the foreign scene's Zerg domination) and TooDming did win his country's first seed into WCS Summer over XiGua, Cyan and XY. While TooDming has shown himself as a skilled player and one of the most successful Chinese players in the past, Neeb is still the favorite by a comfortable amount and if that changes, it would likely raise people's perception of the Chinese scene considerably.

Looking Forward: Neeb plays Hydra in another rematch if he can beat TooDming, and anything beyond that is just bonus. Most likely he would play ShoWTimE in the semifinals, setting up a match for the 'Best Foreign Protoss' title. Considering the two have yet to play a high-profile series and both excel in PvP, it's a rather exciting prospect.

ShoWTimE vs iAsonu (WCS: #3 vs #24)

iAsonu is a solid player, one of the best from China. He had a good performance in WCS Winter, but a devastating loss to uThermal in WCS Spring put his train to a halt. He might have beaten Harstem in GPL, but ShoWTimE is an entirely new beast. Is iAsonu still a solid, up-and-coming Zerg? For sure. But ShoWTimE is the reigning champion, playing a match-up he's good at, with a style that isn't very prone to upsets. An iAsonu victory, while not being impossible due to his skill and the nature of Chinese players being creative and weird, would definitely be something to turn your head for - so maybe we're overdue for another Chinese upset.

Looking Forward: Anything short of a semifinal appearance would be a huge blow to ShoWTimE, and prove him as slightly inconsistent, while a matchup against either Hydra or Neeb in the semis is a chance for him to prove himself as the best in Europe after a rocky couple of tournaments.


Tilt Favorites

In these matches, the player leading in WCS points is considered favored, but not by much. Upsets are absolutely possible, due to players' recent form, match-up weaknesses, or simply similar skill.

viOLet vs Has (WCS: #9 vs #11)

Winning here is essential to viOLet's 2016. Not only does it represent a chance for him to renew some of his form from Winter, but it's also important for WCS points - he's sitting at rank 9, and winning this match alongside PtitDrogo losing against MaSa would push him up into the top eight. However, it looks hard for him. He hasn't played much recently, with an 0-3 loss to JonSnow in Regionals being his only set in almost two months, and while an 80% ZvP winrate looks good it's worth noting he's only beaten puCK out of anything resembling 'top protosses', while getting thrashed by Neeb in devastating fashion. Has might be more infamous for his PvT, but his PvZ is what has brought him historical performances in his region as well as his recent in-region dominance. If ever there is a time for evil to shine, it's here, and a struggling viOLet might be the first victim. Humorously, Has is fairly up there in WCS points as well, but a collosal run either here or in WCS Summer is absolutely mandatory if he wants a chance to break into the top eight as he has about 600 points to make up.


Elazer vs puCK (WCS: #7 vs #13)

Both of these players have a lot of potential, but both of these players have typically underperformed. Elazer has yet to find a big offline upset despite not failing either and showing some pretty good sets against Hydra (WCS Winter) and ShoWTimE (DH Valencia), while puCK's momentary shine in the spotlight has turned shaky with a rocky few months culminating in an 0-3 loss to Stephano of all people. Still, puCK actually defeated Elazer to qualify here, and a repeat of that in an offline Best-of-Five would be huge. Both of these players need this win; time is running out and losses to players who aren't at the very top cannot be accepted if they want to be contenders for BlizzCon. The match against Snute is a chance both of these players would love to have, and their competitive history leans towards a bloodbath of a match. Look forward to this one, folks!


Toss-Ups

These could absolutely go either way.

Snute vs uThermal (WCS: #4 vs #18)

These two have an odd history. For one, Snute's ZvT is somewhat hard to place; he's at times very good and at times rather mediocre, a thought reinforced by his trading of sets with MarineLorD and Bunny in the past couple weeks. For two, uThermal is historically one of the oddest players in Europe; a monster online, shown best in his KFC run which featured a big 3-0 win over Snute, but hasn't yet found a good offline run. He lost to Hydra in Valencia, MarineLorD in Germany, and Polt in Tours - it's not the players he loses to (that weird set against Lillekanin aside) but rather the lack of victory. It's the very best players that beat him, but with as many chances as he's gotten it should be enough to at least win a set or two considering the skill he often shows. For uThermal, this is a chance to break out; a win against Snute brings him into the forefront. It proves him as someone who can hang with the top echelon of players in Europe, and stops him from falling out of contention for the title of 'best European Terran' - or at least second best. For Snute, this is part of a chance to win something. A possible bracket of uThermal - Elazer - Nerchio - ShoWTimE/Neeb/Hydra is daunting, but that's all the sweeter. Snute has been built up this entire year, and has only slipped further from the crown. In WCS Winter, he was dethroned by a sublime Polt - in GPL, by a flaming Harstem. Since then? He has yet to make a finals, being stopped in the semifinals by players who simply delivered better than he did, and had a saddening loss in WCS Spring to push him down the WCS standings slightly. Still, this isn't the end of the story for either of these players. They both spy a greater glory on the horizon for which this only serves as a preview; WCS Summer, one last chance before the lull of fall.


PtitDrogo vs MaSa (WCS: #8 vs #10)

In almost every other match the statistics and results in one way or another gave us a hint as to who the favorite would be - not in this one. Not only has PtitDrogo been largely cold since his win in DH Leipzig, but MaSa's continued his fiery path that started back in Austin. He traded sets with PtitDrogo at HomeStory Cup - largely contributing to the 'toss-up' nature of this match - before finding an upset against Elazer and continuing that into a 3-2 win over WCS champion ShoWTimE. All of this leads to MaSa being one of four players in contention for the two bottom spots in WCS. With Neeb, Hydra, Snute, ShoWTimE, Nerchio and Polt all but confirmed - and a chance at getting the WCS Summer seed unlikely for anyone outside of that group - both of these players need a win here. If MaSa wins, PtitDrogo's top 8 seed is in danger with viOLet potentially overcoming him and MaSa being 50 points away- and in a match against ShoWTimE, who he found an upset against already. If PtitDrogo wins, MaSa will be down to WCS Summer and a couple other tournaments to make up a ~200-300 point deficit. It's rare for either player to get a chance as direct as this to make up the gap with their competition, and letting it slip would be devastating.