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[SPL'16] Closing Time

Forum Index > SC2 General
18 CommentsPost a Reply

[SPL'16] Closing Time

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byshiroiusagi
July 9th, 2016 03:03 GMT
Table of Contents

Closing Time
Five Conclusions
Samsung vs CJ
MVP vs SKT
KT vs Afreeca
Samsung vs Jin Air
SKT vs CJ

Closing Time



Two golden tickets into the round playoffs are up for grabs on this last weekend of Proleague—and what a weekend it’s going to be! Five matches are scheduled, with five teams still in the race for the playoffs. CJ Entus might be in the best position at the moment: They upset Jin Air Green Wings last week and sit third in the table, with two matches left to play out. On Saturday they meet Samsung, ranked last right now, and on Super Sunday they’ll meet SK Telecom T1 for what is most likely going to be a playoff decider. Speaking of SKT and Samsung, they too have two matches to play.

SKT meet MVP on Saturday, Samsung have a tough draw on Sunday as they’ll meet Jin Air, who’ll want to purge the loss against CJ and take the opportunity to take the first place off of KT. The defenders of the throne will take on the Afreeca Freecs, who also need a victory to claim a spot in the playoffs—and they won’t get a second chance, as the game against KT will be their only one this weekend. Five teams, five matches and two spots that everyone's chasing: Expect entertainment, expect drama and expect passion—the stakes could not be higher. It's time for the final Round Robin week of Proleague 2016.

Five Conclusions



  1. The big match of Week 4 was undoubtedly the top of the table clash between KT and Jin Air. While a couple sets certainly went exactly as expected (Maru and Stats over TY and sOs), a couple of upsets tilted things over to the boys in green. Leenock shocked us all with a win over Cure, who looked curiously out of form, repeatedly failing to split his units against ling-bane. However, it was Rogue’s pair of wins over Zest that sealed the deal for Jin Air. It’s becoming clear now that Zest’s PvZ trails far behind his other two stellar matchups, and Jin Air exploited KT’s telegraphed ace match choice by sending out their zerg again.

  2. That said, Jin Air immediately threw away their advantage by losing to CJ. It seemed like an instant return to their worst performances in the early part of the year—Maru picking up a win, and everyone else falling. ByuL deserves some praise in particular though; finally picking up another win in Proleague. That takes his record since April to 3-7; still far below expectations as one of CJ’s ace players, but he’ll head into this vital final week with a bit of confidence.

  3. Let’s be honest though—whatever happens with the top teams (Jin Air / KT / SKT), they’ll all be there come the final season playoffs. What’s more interesting is following the race for that vital 4th seed, and with their ace win over Afreeca, MVP kept themselves in the hunt. As has been the case for a while, their two terrans carried them to victory, and should they beat SKT and force their way into the playoffs, it’ll be those two that they’ll need to thank.

  4. Finally, SKT have broken their Proleague curse. It was a relatively simple win over Samsung, and one that hearkened back to more solid past performances from the squad. Impact may have lost, but with Dark, Classic and INnoVation winning, this was a match pretty much straight from their 2015 record. Particularly notable is INnoVation finally picking up a win against protoss, and with their big guns possibly starting to fire, SKT aren’t out of the Proleague title race yet.

  5. A quick look at the standings then, and what each team needs to make the Season Playoffs:

    Jin Air - 202 Points
    Guaranteed 1st seed in the season playoffs should they beat Samsung. If they lose, then SKT could yet overtake them if they win the round playoffs.

    SKT - 182 Points
    Guaranteed at least 3rd seed in the season playoffs. Will take 2nd should KT fail to win the round playoffs, and 1st should they win themselves if Jin Air lose to Samsung this week. They would also need to place 3rd in this round, with wins over both CJ and MVP this week.

    KT - 141 Points
    Guaranteed at least 3rd seed in the season playoffs. Should SKT make the round playoffs, KT will need to win to take 2nd seed. If SKT fail, then it is possible that KT can take 2nd seed by making it to the round final.

    CJ - 91 Points
    Things start to become a little simpler—to make the season playoffs, all CJ need to do is place above the three teams below them (Samsung / Afreeca / MVP), and hoping that none of those three teams win the round playoffs.

    Samsung - 90 Points
    Similarly to CJ, Samsung need to place above all three of the teams around them. Should they place 3rd and CJ finish 4th, they will need CJ to finish in 3rd or 4th in the round playoffs.

    Afreeca - 86 Points
    Again, the situation is pretty much the same for Afreeca. Beat the other 3 teams in the regular round, and ensure that if CJ, Samsung or MVP make 4th spot, they fail to place in the top 2 in the playoffs.

    MVP - 75 Points
    Finally, MVP need to qualify for the round playoffs and win, or place 3rd and take 2nd place in the playoffs.



Samsung vs CJ



(Z)Solar <(Wiki)King Sejong Station> (Z)ByuL

No clear favourite can be named in our first duel. Both Solar and ByuL have average scores in ZvZ this season (3-3 for Solar, 2-3 for ByuL) and both have lost their most recent mirror matches. Solar was defeated by Dark last week and by Curious the week before—in an important ace match. His opponent from CJ Entus played his last ZvZ roughly two months ago against Impact, losing the Bo3 against the SKT zerg 1-2. His last SPL ZvZ lies back even farther, a victory over HyuN in the beginning of May. We do know that Solar likes to transition into mutalisks in the match-up, while ByuL is happy to be a defensive bulwark and let the enemy come to him, so this might become quite the interesting and close duel.

This first match is incredibly important for both teams, as it will set the tone for the entire series and may provide a huge morale boost for them. Solar has already played a far better season than last year and his curse can be regarded as broken, but a player of his calibre going into the last match on Sunday with a 6-6 record is still disappointing. How can Samsung do well, if one of their most high profile and successful players can’t even end the season on a positive record? Likewise, a victory for ByuL and CJ could prove exactly what they need to push themselves up for one last time. It’s ByuL’s first “bad” Proleague season, but he can still even out his score and help CJ into these last playoffs. Their upset against Jin Air last week showed that they have the power and will to fight back.


(T)BrAvO <(Wiki)New Gettysburg> (P)Hush

The coaches of both teams seem to have thought the same thing here: Let’s use our weakest links on this relatively new map, and maybe they can make something crazy happen and upset the opponent. Even though BrAvO should be a huge favourite, there are reasons for Samsung fans to be a bit worried about this match: In the last few weeks the terran has suffered a great range of losses to protoss players. He was eliminated from the SSL qualifiers by Trust, from Code A by Classic—although he delivered a great showing there—and lost both of his last SPL matches to protoss as well (to Trust and Patience). And last but not least he was defeated by Creator in the Code S wildcard qualifier. Since May he only won one out of six PvP series—hardly a ratio to be confident about.

Of course things don’t look better on the other side. Hush is still looking for his first SPL win this season, standing at a score of 0-7 so far (0-3 vs terran). He did take a map off of Cure in SSL Challenge in June at least. What makes this match interesting anyway is the map. We’ve only seen one TvP on it thus far, with sOs dismantling Dream. Both will need to adapt to the terrain, and if we can name one strength of Hush, then it’s probably exactly that: Being smart, preparing a clever build. BrAvO is similar—although mostly in TvT—so this should be an interesting exchange. I still give BrAvO the edge, as he’s a more solid player, but perhaps Hush can make things happen now when they count the most.


(P)Dear <(Wiki)Frozen Temple> (P)herO

Probably the deciding match of this series is going to be this PvP. For both Samsung and CJ it has been a recurring theme that without a win from Dear/herO they can't win the series. With 8-3 for Dear and 7-2 for herO these two protoss players are among the best PvPers of the season. While the Samsung player has kept this form going for some time now, his opponent did recently suffer some losses, although outside of SPL. herO lost 0-2 to Zest in SSL Challenge and also took a map loss against Super, so it might be safe to assume that Dear is in a bit of a better shape at the moment.

Historically however the CJ protoss has had Dear’s number. Of their nine duels, herO's won seven, and all their matches in LotV—including one regular SPL game and an ace match. This is hard to ignore, because it seems that he has a feel of the way the Samsung player is approaching this match-up. So while currently Dear may be in better form, there is some historical advantage on herO’s side. With this being the most important match of the series pressure will be high for both parties, and herO’s track record in important PvPs is certainly not the best. This is going to be extremely close.


(T)Reality <(Wiki)Dusk Towers> (T)Bunny

As if this wasn’t nerve wrecking enough Bunny is being sent out as the fourth man by CJ Entus. Last week the terran made it extremely close against Trap, with both sides throwing the match repeatedly and general chaos ensuing. Bunny was triumphant in the end, but he certainly could have been more efficient. Reality, too, is no stranger to chaotic situations, although he generally at least tries to keep games rather standard. Hilarity is easily created by flying siege tanks however, so scenarios like mad base trades are no rarity in TvT these days.

Speaking of the match-up: Reality is 3-2 vs terran this season, Bunny 2-5. Both lost their most recentTvT matches in SPL, with Reality being defeated by aLive and Bunny losing to Ryung. That’s not really too damning though: aLive has been on fire in the last weeks and Ryung has somewhat regained his former status as a TvT expert. It’s notable that Reality beat Ryung back in June and took a map off of Maru in SSL Challenge, which are better results than Bunny has to show (wins over jjakji and Bomber). All things considered, Reality should be the favoured player going into this match, with Bunny as the underdog. The role seems to suit the CJ terran though, as he’s been a somewhat stable source of upsets this season.


Ace: <(Wiki)Overgrowth>

If it comes to an ace match a Dear vs herO rematch seems likely. They are the go-to ace players of their teams and additionally Overgrowth seems to be one of herO’s favoured maps—he's been fielded here twice already this round, winning on both occasions. herO is 4-2 in ace matches so far, while Samsung have been quite unsuccessful in this field, although they like to experiment: Dear is 1-2, BrAvO and Solar are 0-1. No, this should be Dear against herO.

Predictions

Solar < ByuL
BrAvO > Hush
Dear < herO
Reality > Bunny
Dear < herO

Samsung 2 - 3 CJ


MVP vs SKT



(T)GuMiho <(Wiki)Overgrowth> (P)Classic

What might be one of this week's best matches opens up MVP vs SKT. GuMiho was the first player to advance into the Ro16 of Code S in Season 2, defeating Solar and MC, and is currently ranked in the top ten of this Proleague season with eleven wins to eight losses. TvP has been his main occupation all season long—and a productive one at that, sporting a 7-5 record. Just last week GuMiho secured his team's victory by defeating Patience twice. The terran plays an aggressive style, usually using siege tanks and cyclones to pressure the opponent early on and keep the protoss contained and busy, before switching into a bio/medivac/liberator composition to play out the macro game.

Classic will probably prepare for exactly that. There is enough material of GuMiho available to study exactly what the MVP terran prefers to do in specific situations, and SKT have the necessary supporting staff to find counterplays. Additionally, Classic already has GuMiho’s number anyway: A month ago in the SSL Challenge he beat the terran with a clean 2-0 score, advancing out of the group on first place. The protoss is the favourite to bring his team ahead in score here.


(T)Forte <(Wiki)Frost> (T)Dream

It’s been a tough season for both Forte and Dream and it’ll probably get even tougher for Forte now. The MVP terran did surprise everyone two weeks ago when he upset herO with a really clever one-base build, thus scoring his first win of the season. He has consistently lost to terrans throughout the season however, going 0-3 in the match-up—despite having TvT practice partners such as Ryung and GuMiho available to him. It’s probably safe to say that he just can’t keep up with the other terrans of the league at the moment.

For a long time TvT was also the weakness of Forte’s opponent Dream. Nowadays though, Dream's struggles don't seem to be confined to the matchup. He's often been dropped by SKT, only regaining a regular spot in the roster in this last round. When he made his comeback after a month-long absence he was able to defeat Bomber at least, which is his most recent TvT and gives us reason to believe that Dream’s skills haven’t fully rusted away while being benched. Considering there is a lot at stake this week, nerves might play a role in this match as well. In that regard Dream should be more experienced than Forte by far, having played in individual league finals after all. He’s the favourite to take it.


(T)Ryung <(Wiki)King Sejong Station> (T)INnoVation

King Ryung Station or INnoVation Station, what is the name of the map going to be after this battle? It’s clear that both opponents are very comfortable on this battleground, being fielded here again and again, despite the dangers of such predictability. INnoVation was victorious on KSS against TY in June and defeated Dear last week as well. Next up is a TvT expert, who has regained this former trait in the last weeks. With a 5-7 score (TvT being 3-3) the MVP player has managed to put together a better season than many expected and he’s not finished yet.

Ryung is a notably clever and tricky adversary and might prepare something special for INnoVation, who has shown willingness to play mech in TvT on this map, most noteworthy against TY. With the knowledge that INno isn’t a player who switches up his style all that often, his opponent might figure out a way to exploit that. Since KSS does offer opportunities for both aggressive strategies and defensive counters this should become an interesting clash. I’d give INnoVation the advantage, but Ryung has shown repeatedly, that he’s not to be underestimated—a sentiment that could be applied to MVP as a whole.


(Z)DeParture <(Wiki)New Gettysburg> (Z)Dark

ZvZ seems to be the most common match-up on New Gettysburg so far, but with the exception of Rogue’s mad swarm host play against Dark, we’ve mostly seen the normal early ling/baneling aggression followed by a roach/ravager transition. Dark is by all means the more solid player of the two, so we should expect him to play the safer game, leaving the crazier actions to DeParture, who probably knows, that he won’t win a straight-up macro game without creating any advantages for himself.

The MVP zerg is quite good at that, though. He’s had his fair share of upsets so far, and is known to pull off aggressive builds against unsuspecting opponents. After the beating handed to Dark by Rogue, the SKT player should be on the watch for uncommon strategies—if he learned his lesson. Once again the SKT zerg is the favourite, with the slight chance of upset in the air.


Ace: <(Wiki)Frozen Temple>

Dark has been the ace four times this season for his team, and there shouldn’t be any reason to change that up now. MVP likewise have a four-time ace in GuMiho—in fact the two players already met in an ace match before, with Dark securing victory for SKT. If there ever was a time to gamble and throw out Seed for a cheese, this might actually be the time.

Predictions

GuMiho < Classic
Forte < Dream
Ryung < INnoVation

MVP 0 - 3 SKT


KT vs Afreeca



(T)TY <Dusk Towers> (Z)Curious

On paper, this looks like an easy win for KT. TY has been the best performing terran in the individual leagues throughout the year, while Curious has been in abysmal form recently, especially in ZvT. Since April, Curious has a 2-8 map record in the matchup, with his only two wins coming against Bunny in the GSL wildcard qualifiers. That said, TY has a surprisingly mediocre record in the matchup (11-9 for 2016), albeit with most of those losses coming in the early part of the year. His games since late May (tight 2-3 loss to Dark in the Cross Finals, and two easy wins against soO and ByuL in Proleague) are probably more indicative of his standing right now though, and he should be regarded as an easy favourite.


(P)Stats <New Gettysburg> (P)Patience

What the hell Stats. We call you a good contender for the title of ‘Best Player in the World’, and you reward us by bungling a pretty simple GSL group. He looked great in his opening 2-0 over Cure, and pretty terrible in his follow-up losses to MyuNgSiK and Cure again. It’s brought to an end his great win streak over the past couple months (21-2 match record, 32-7 map record), including an 11-2 streak in PvP. The magnitude of the numbers he’s put up recently means that as bad as yesterday was, Stats should still be regarded as a premier PvPer. That’s especially true in this match here—Patience’s PvP record has been poor this year (7-15 offline), including two losses to Stats in last season’s SSL (1-3 and 0-4). He’s had isolated successes against good players (2-1 against herO and 3-2 against Classic in the early part of SSL Season 1, and another win against Classic in Proleague last month), but nothing to show that he’s a top tier player in the matchup.


(P)Zest <Frost> (P)Super

Much like the previous match, calling this match is all about long term form in a matchup against recent results. Zest was imperious in PvP throughout Season 1, with a 13-2 record prior to his loss to Stats in the Cross Final. Since that loss, he’s a much more shaky 6-8, including two losses to MC (Proleague and GSL) and, more pertinently, an 0-2 loss to Super in the SSL Challenge. It’s especially notable because Super’s PvP was terrible for much of 2016; go watch his GSL matches against Trap to see how not to play against disruptors, for example. However, beating Zest and trading sets with herO is a strong demonstration in such a competitive SSL group. Both wins against Zest came with extreme gateway aggression ending the game early, and it’s probably wise to play similarly here to avoid the KT protoss’ macro game.


(Z)Losira <King Sejong Station> (T)aLive

So, after his first win in Proleague back in June against soO, Losira’s returned to further atone for his performances so far. A 1-4 record has been disappointing considering the competition he’s face—losses to Journey, Creator and sOs were particularly egregious, while losing to Maru’s perhaps understandable. It’s not going to be an easy job for him though given aLive’s current return to form. Since his elimination in Code S by Dark and Losira, aLive’s been on the TvZ warpath, racking up a 27-3 match record (57-11 in maps). Sure, a decent number of those have come online against weak opposition, but he’s been pretty great offline too—losing a single Proleague match against soO while beating Rogue, Dark, Losira and DRG. Losira’s own ZvT has been poor all year, and was recently rolled 1-5 in the matchup in his SSL Challenge group by Reality and aLive (trading maps with Maru). The Afreeca player is undoubtedly favoured here.


ACE <Overgrowth> ACE

Once more, KT’s riches are all available for selection. Once more, it’ll almost certainly be Zest, unless they’ve learnt from last week (a lesson that KT haven’t picked up on any time in the past three years). Afreeca would be smart to gamble on Curious’ ZvP, much like the Rogue pick last week.


Predictions

TY > Curious
Stats > Patience
Zest > Super

KT 3 - 0 Afreeca

Samsung vs Jin Air



(P)Dear <New Gettysburg> (T)Maru

Samsung vs Jin Air opens up with one of the classic rivalries of HotS. Dear and Maru may not have met all that often (currently 3-3 in matches, 8-6 in maps in favour of Dear), but their two titanic clashes towards the end of 2013 defined Dear’s miracle Season 3 run. Back then, Dear was one of the sharpest PvTers we’d ever seen, repeatedly closing out games with colossus / templar play. While he’s tended to prefer disruptors in Legacy of the Void, there are signs that he might be shifting back towards his old favoured composition. His recent Proleague match against TY was a great demonstration of his comfort with the style, back on his old stomping ground Frost (albeit a match that ended in defeat). That’s been a theme of his TvP throughout this season; while his records in the other two matchups have been great (8-3 PvP, 2-0 PvZ), his PvT has been dire (1-5). His choice of phoenix-adept was less than inspiring against INnoVation last week, and it’ll be interesting to see what he opts for against his old nemesis.

Maru has actually looked somewhat mortal in the matchup recently as well. His SSL campaign spluttered to a halt against Zest (0-2) and he merely traded maps with herO and Super. Losses to sOs in the recent Leifeng Cup 149 looked awful, but with both players using highly aggressive strats for the whole tournament, it’s doubtful that they were taking things all that seriously. Still though, Maru is pretty much unrivalled at the top of the TvP charts alongside TY; his conquests in the past three months include Stats, Zest and Classic. Dear will need to step it up a gear to challenge here.


(T)Reality <Dusk Towers> (P)Trap

Onto Samsung’s trusty lieutenant then. Reality has been a stalwart for the team throughout this Proleague season, and while he’s currently on a tough 1-4 streak (losses to Stats, Zest, aLive, and Classic), his 7-7 record is the match of anyone in the team bar Dear. Pity then, that TvP seems to be his kryptonite. Reality is unbeaten in offline TvZ since April (6-2 map record), and holds his own in TvT (8-5, including an 0-3 to Maru in Code A), so his 5-9 record in TvP clearly stands out. Now, that’s also to do with the calibre of protoss that he’s lost to (Classic, Zest (twice), Stats, Trap), but he’s also visibly less comfortable with the aggressive play that’s been typefied by terrans in the matchup recently (see GuMiho).

For his part, Trap’s hardly set the world alight in PvT either (8-12 for the year). Unconvincing play at the start of the year led to being dumped out of Code S by TY and TaeJa; a string of three Proleague wins over Dream, TY and Reality hinted at an upturn in form, before failure against TY, Bomber and Cure led to failure in the easiest group of the SSL Challenge. Neither player comes into this as a proven quantity in the matchup.


(Z)Armani <Overgrowth> (P)sOs

Samsung desperately needs a win tonight to keep their dreams of reaching the Season Playoffs alive. So Stork decides to send… Armani? The same Armani who is 0-6 for the year in offline competition? The player who’s lost to Creator, Rogue, Blaze, TANGTANG, NoRegreT and DeParture? Granted, Armani’s online form is ‘fine’. A 61% winrate is solid enough, although that reduces to 51% against Korean opposition. His untelevised run through the GSL Wildcard bracket was also somewhat impressive (wins over Trust, Curious, and Trap; losses to Hurricane and Creator), but again, online is online, and offline is offline. Armani has failed to make any impression on the Korean scene, registering four appearances in Code A. His career Proleague record is a dire 3-9 (wins over YoDa, Creator and MyuNgSiK last year). Frankly, there’s no way anyone could put faith in him here. He’s up against sOs—a player who’s oscillated between ‘good’ and awful for much of the year, seemingly at random, but even sOs at his worst will probably be enough here.


(Z)Solar <Frozen Temple> (Z)Rogue

Like in his first match of the week, Solar faces a ZvZ against Jin Air. Unlike ByuL though, Rogue actually seems to be pretty good at the matchup right now. His ZvP and ZvT have been mediocre so far in 2016, but his mirror matchup skills have looked absolutely stellar. A 7-1 offline map record comes with wins over Dark, Symbol, soO, Armani, Impact and ByuL (as well as trading sets with Impact in the SSL). With the current dearth in quality for Korean zergs, it’s difficult to ask for much more than wins over the SKT pair in particular to prove your ZvZ chops. Meanwhile, Solar’s been much more hit and miss, picking up wins over easy opposition (Pet and RagnaroK, for instance), while crucially struggling against the SKT zergs (0-2 against soO, 3-5 against Dark). While Starcraft is too varied and stylistic to put too much credence in transitive comparisons, the fact is that we’re yet to see anyone be a match for Rogue in Legacy. His SH-powered win over Dark a couple weeks back was genius in both idea and execution, and he should be too good for Solar here.


ACE <Frost> ACE

Much like KT, Jin Air can choose any of their three core stars here, but with either Dear or Solar likely as ace choices, the obvious choice in Maru seems ideal.


Predictions

Dear < Maru
Reality > Trap
Armani < sOs
Solar < Rogue

Samsung 1 - 3 Jin Air


SKT vs CJ



(Z)Dark <Frozen Temple> (P)herO

Time for the final match of the Round Robin stages of Proleague 2016 then, and Dark vs herO is probably the best match we could have hoped for. Dark was the protoss killer in early 2016; racking up a 15-3 map record in the first four months of the year (most notably those two victories over Stats in the closing stages of the SSL). Since May, though, Dark has faltered; Stats has taken revenge wins twice (Proleague and in the Cross Finals), while Patience beat him in early June. What was once the defining factor of his solo dominance as the top zerg in Korea is beginning to slip. That’s partly to do with how Stats in particular started to counter his ling-bane heavy style—skip unnecessary immortals for Dark’s now roach-less army, and it’ll be interesting to see if the SKT player has brought any new tricks to the table.

While PvZ isn’t quite the matchup that’s driven herO (and CJ) to success in Proleague, it certainly remains one of his strongest matchups right now. He sports an offline win rate of 15-4 for the year, with his only two losses coming earlier in the year to Dark and Leenock in Proleague. That said, it’s notable that he hasn’t played many strong zergs at all—beating Rogue twice (himself struggling in non-Zest PvZ) is as good as it gets. He’s looked OK in doing so, it’s just that Dark represents a different calibre of zerg, and a much tougher ask right here.

(P)Classic <King Sejong Station> (Z)ByuL

Onto set 2, and there’s only one question here; how much do you really trust Classic’s PvZ? After all, his inability to deal with lurkers was cruelly exposed earlier in the year by Dark in the SSL, and led to his benching from the SKT roster. Now he’s back, his PvZ has looked ‘fine’, if not quite at top level just yet. For example, his match in Round 2 against ByuL was a great demonstration of the macro PvZ he excelled in during HotS, but was possible due to the extremely passive game played by the CJ zerg. Meanwhile, some simple warp prism adept harass managed to kill nearly 50 of Curious’ workers in their Proleague match earlier this round. Classic has barely been tested in his weakest matchup since his return.

That said, it’s doubtful whether he will tonight. ByuL’s fall from his dominance of late 2015 HotS has been fast and drastic. He looks weak in all three matchups, and has barely been a factor either in Proleague or the individual leagues. That said, last week’s win over sOs was a solid enough hold of the Jin Air protoss’ chargelot archon aggression, and we’ve already had plenty of examples of once legendary players returning to form this year.


(Z)soO <New Gettysburg> (P)Hush

soO’s 2016 has progressed just like his 2015. He’s maintained his status as one of the great ZvZers, while his other two matchups have remained mediocre. His ZvP in particular is indicative of his current standing in the game; his wins have mostly come over low tier opposition (Super, Hush, Blaze, TAiLS), while losing to anyone a tier above (Stats, Zest, sOs, Dear). Luckily for him, Hush has been abysmal all year long (35% offline win rate). That said, his PvZ is propping up that record severely—he actually sports a positive 10-9 record there at the moment. Unfortunately, those wins have come over NoRegreT, SoulKey and HyuN; against soO in their SSL Challenge, he looked distinctly second rate.


(T)INnoVation <Frost> (T)Bunny

While it’s true that INnoVation’s TvP and TvZ have been disappointing so far this year, his TvT still seems to have held up. A tight Proleague loss to Maru has been his only televised offline loss this year, while his win over TY last week was particularly impressive. He easily beat Bunny when they met earlier in the year in Proleague, and it doesn’t seem that the CJ terran has improved much in the meantime. Ryung handled his mech composition with ease last month in Proleague, and he’ll need more to win here.


ACE <Dusk Towers> ACE

As has been the case all this year, SKT’s ace choice will probably come down to the player who’s decided to have the least severe brain melt of the week. herO will undoubtedly be CJ’s choice, so INnoVation should be ruled out immediately. Should Dark fall to herO the first time round, Classic will probably be the best choice here.


Predictions

Dark < herO
Classic > ByuL
soO > Hush
INnoVation > Bunny

SKT 3 - 1 CJ


Time until Proleague


[image loading]


Writers: munch, TheOneAboveU
Graphics: shiroiusagi, lichter
Photo Credit: Thedailydot
Editor(s): munch
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TL+ Member
munch
Profile Joined July 2014
Mute City2363 Posts
July 09 2016 02:59 GMT
#2
Well, this took some time to write
WriterForm is temporary, MMA is permanent || http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/508630-article-archive
Phredxor
Profile Joined May 2013
New Zealand15076 Posts
July 09 2016 03:36 GMT
#3
I'm just excited to see Hush play again.
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
July 09 2016 04:28 GMT
#4
On July 09 2016 12:36 Phredxor wrote:
I'm just excited to see Hush play again.


Never tough I would read that
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Alarak89
Profile Joined January 2016
United States882 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-07-09 05:30:28
July 09 2016 04:45 GMT
#5
Or, if CJ lost to Samsung today, JA will be guaranteed at least 2nd place this round thus season playoffs 1st seed, so they do not have to win Samsung on Sunday, am I right?
sOs is THE ONLY player I pay attention to
thantritue
Profile Joined February 2010
Vietnam70 Posts
July 09 2016 05:17 GMT
#6
You mistook herO to Stats in the second paragraph of Dark vs herO review...
Silvana
Profile Blog Joined September 2013
3713 Posts
July 09 2016 05:45 GMT
#7
On July 09 2016 14:17 thantritue wrote:
You mistook herO to Stats in the second paragraph of Dark vs herO review...


But one thing is true tho, Dark should be worried!
TheOneAboveU
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Germany3367 Posts
July 09 2016 07:30 GMT
#8
You can do it CJ, come oooooon!
Moderatoralias TripleM | @TL_TripleM | Big Dark Energy!
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55510 Posts
July 09 2016 08:25 GMT
#9
On July 09 2016 14:17 thantritue wrote:
You mistook herO to Stats in the second paragraph of Dark vs herO review...

That's pretty hilarious. I mean it's not like he wrote Stats and meant herO, he just wrote a paragraph about Stats for a Dark vs herO preview.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Phredxor
Profile Joined May 2013
New Zealand15076 Posts
July 09 2016 08:36 GMT
#10
It's especially weird since he just wrote a completely different paragraph about Stats earlier.
munch
Profile Joined July 2014
Mute City2363 Posts
July 09 2016 09:04 GMT
#11
It was 4am, I started waffling about how Stats in particular had worked out his style, and it snowballed. Fixing now

WriterForm is temporary, MMA is permanent || http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/508630-article-archive
zakadar
Profile Joined December 2015
Germany409 Posts
July 09 2016 09:07 GMT
#12
well stats is great so write about stats
TY my boy gogo
Phredxor
Profile Joined May 2013
New Zealand15076 Posts
July 09 2016 09:16 GMT
#13
On July 09 2016 18:07 zakadar wrote:
well stats is great so write about stats


Agreed. Nothing wrong with more Stats.
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55510 Posts
July 09 2016 09:20 GMT
#14
On July 09 2016 18:16 Phredxor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2016 18:07 zakadar wrote:
well stats is great so write about stats


Agreed. Nothing wrong with more Stats.

Well apparently the more people praise him the worse he performs in GSL. So they should write about someone else instead.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
zakadar
Profile Joined December 2015
Germany409 Posts
July 09 2016 11:18 GMT
#15
just gsl curse i hope and he wrecks his ssl group
TY my boy gogo
Alarak89
Profile Joined January 2016
United States882 Posts
July 09 2016 12:13 GMT
#16
Well congrats to JA since they guaranteed their season playoffs 1st seed
sOs is THE ONLY player I pay attention to
munch
Profile Joined July 2014
Mute City2363 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-07-09 13:34:18
July 09 2016 12:44 GMT
#17
Quick update on Playoffs stuff, top end places first:
  • Jin Air have guaranteed 1st seed in the Season Playoffs.

  • If KT win against Afreeca by a better or equal score than Jin Air against Samsung, they guarantee 2nd seed in the Season Playoffs.

  • If KT lose and SKT have a worse score than Samsung (win or lose), KT need to place 2nd to claim 2nd seed in the Season Playoffs.

  • If KT lose and SKT have a better score than Samsung (win or lose), KT tie with SKT if they finish 2nd in the Round Playoffs (and take 2nd seed if they win the Round Playoffs). Who the hell knows what happens here—Bo1 tiebreaker? Maybe SKT get the nod for actually winning a round.


Now a look at the final 4th spot:
  • If Afreeca and CJ win, CJ take 3rd seed and Afreeca take 4th seed for Round Playoffs. CJ qualify for season playoffs unless Afreeca win the Round Playoffs. (Note: If CJ win 3-2, Afreeca win 3-0, then the two teams tie on both points, indicator points and # wins. CJ beat Afreeca in head to head 3-2, so I assume they'll go through in 3rd).

  • If Afreeca win and CJ lose, Afreeca take 3rd seed and CJ take 4th for Round Playoffs. Afreeca qualify for season playoffs if CJ finish outside the top 2.

  • If Afreeca lose, MVP are in the Round Playoffs. CJ in 3rd, MVP in 4th. MVP need to win the Round Playoffs to qualify for the Season Playoffs.


Someone tell me if I've goofed
WriterForm is temporary, MMA is permanent || http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/508630-article-archive
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55510 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-07-10 10:31:37
July 09 2016 13:05 GMT
#18
On July 09 2016 21:44 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
Quick update on Playoffs stuff, top end places first:
  • If KT lose and SKT have a worse score than Samsung (win or lose), KT need to place 2nd to claim 2nd seed in the Season Playoffs.

  • If KT lose and SKT have a worse score than Samsung (win or lose), KT tie with SKT if they finish 2nd in the Round Playoffs

Someone tell me if I've goofed

Does not compute, I think the 2nd worse is supposed to be a "better"?

Also KT needs to either 3-0 Afreeca or at least get the same score against Afreeca that Jin Air gets against Samsung to guarantee 2nd seed before the round playoffs. Otherwise they lose first place to Jin Air. Then KT would only get 71 guaranteed points and they need more to pass SKT.

Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
munch
Profile Joined July 2014
Mute City2363 Posts
July 10 2016 10:32 GMT
#19
On July 09 2016 22:05 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2016 21:44 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
Quick update on Playoffs stuff, top end places first:
  • If KT lose and SKT have a worse score than Samsung (win or lose), KT need to place 2nd to claim 2nd seed in the Season Playoffs.

  • If KT lose and SKT have a worse score than Samsung (win or lose), KT tie with SKT if they finish 2nd in the Round Playoffs

Someone tell me if I've goofed

Does not compute, I think the 2nd worse is supposed to be a "better"?

Also KT needs to either 3-0 Afreeca or at least get the same score against Afreeca that Jin Air gets against Samsung to guarantee 2nd seed before the round playoffs. Otherwise they lose first place to Jin Air. Then KT would only get 71 guaranteed points and they need more to pass SKT.


Was meant to be better, and yeah I goofed on the 3-0

Edit: just realised I edited your post instead of quoting yesterday. Oops
WriterForm is temporary, MMA is permanent || http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/508630-article-archive
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