Yeah, it's Code S. With a stellar group to kick off, I might add. The defending champion once again enters the tournament as one of its biggest favorites. He has to prepare for tricky opponents of all races, however, all of whom have shown in the past that they're capable of beating him. Will they do it again?
Who Beats Zest?
That is without a doubt the main question in Group A. MC will be the first to try, and despite declaring Zest the new king of protoss himself, the Boss Toss does have potential to work with.
In fact, he made his Proleague debut for CJ Entus against Zest and beat him straight away. Now, that was a Best of 1, and this is not. But it does give his fans some hope. No matter the result, their series should be one to watch purely for historical reasons. The only two Protoss players in history to ever win two GSL championships meet in the first match of a new Code S season? That's cool, no matter how you look at it. And with Zest dropping maps in recent weeks, some of which have been PvPs, there's a possibility for a real upset to start the new season.
Solar and GuMiho play the second game of the night. With Terran considered highly favored against Zerg in Korea, GuMiho should at least have a slight upper hand in their series. Add to that Solar's mixed results against Terran recently and GuMiho's historically quite decent TvZ (plus his 3-0 destruction of DRG in Code A to get here), and you really shouldn't be surprised if he does end up winning the series.
Unfortunately for him, he's almost guaranteed a loss in the Winners Match. Remember how we talked about Zest's PvT winrate before the GSL Finals? Well, it hasn't changed. He still has not lost a Bo3+ against Terran in 2016 and we're past the halfway point. The only "series" he's lost was a Bo1 in Proleague - to Maru. 5 map losses total. That is the level we're talking about. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing. Sorry GuMiho, you're not changing that.
Solar on the other hand might have a real shot at beating the reigning champion. Zest's PvZ was largely untested until he had to face Rogue twice in Proleague last weekend. The results were fascinating, as Rogue outplayed him hard and took both maps with ease. At some point we need to start asking questions about the Kingslayer's vs Zerg matchup, and that time is now. Especially because Solar knows how to beat him; he leads their head to head record 10-7. His own form might be his biggest hurdle however, since Solar right now is not the championship winning player he was in the past.
It isn't likely that any of these three beat Zest, but I'd put my money on Solar. Only if I really, really had to place a bet, though.
Who Beats the Rest?
I'm not going to pretend to expect an upset. I expect Zest to win the group. The contest for second place could be highly entertaining, though. Solar, GuMiho and MC are all unique players within their respective races and all usually bring something special to the table. They're all in comparable form and all beloved players in the community. Personally I'd give GuMiho the best shot at advancing in second place. With TvZ being as it is, and Solar's strongest matchup still being PvZ, he may only have to beat the Zerg twice to advance. And even if MC does beat Solar, I would favor GuMiho against him as well.
One thing is for certain however: expect builds you haven't seen before. These three, paired with Zest, should make this a festival to kick off Code S. Start the fireworks!
Predictions
Despite losing maps here and there, Zest is still Zest. I'm expecting him to win the group. He may drop the odd map, but he won't lose here. Second place is where the fun is. As said above, I'm going with GuMiho advancing over Solar and MC. Sorry, MC fans.
Zest > MC GuMiho > Solar Zest > GuMiho MC < Solar GuMiho > Solar
It would be unbelievably cool if MC stomps Zest again. Guy just comes out of retirement now that his throne as the GOAT Toss is threatened and kicks it old-school. Yeah that'd be sweet...
too bad I totally agree with this prediction and MC's probably going out in 4th ;;
On July 06 2016 06:29 Elentos wrote: Guess who's wondering why this isn't under SC2 General like usual?
So now that that's changed...
I agree with the predictions. But they seem so obvious. So natural. So easy. And if SSL Challenge taught me anything, it's that it probably means they won't come true. Although Zest is obviously going to advance, he's never finished worse than top 8 in a Starleague he qualified for.
If solar can beat gumiho, then I think he could beat Zest (potentially), but again, Proleague is a different beast than GSL, and a best of one is much different than a best of three.
I think if Zest and Gumiho win, Zest is taking first. But if MC pulls the upset, then this becomes very interesting.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: Unfortunately for him, he's almost guaranteed a loss in the Winners Match. Remember how we talked about Zest's PvT winrate before the GSL Finals? Well, it hasn't changed. He still has not lost a Bo3+ against Terran in 2016 and we're past the halfway point. The only "series" he's lost was a Bo1 in Proleague - to Maru. 5 map losses total. That is the level we're talking about. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing. Sorry GuMiho, you're not changing that.
About that, by the way, PartinG had nearly the exact same PvT win rate last year that Zest does right now from January to July, with way more games played. So I wouldn't say Zest's domination is something we've never seen before yet.
I haven't watched much lately. Did Solar take a nose-dive in form in the last few months? Why is Gumiho predicted to advance over him? Just a matter of who has the better TvZ/ZvT ?
On July 06 2016 06:57 TheDougler wrote: I haven't watched much lately. Did Solar take a nose-dive in form in the last few months? Why is Gumiho predicted to advance over him? Just a matter of who has the better TvZ/ZvT ?
He fell off a little bit, but Zerg in general took a nose-dive in Korea, especially against Terran, and GuMiho is looking to be one of the better Terrans. And Solar really is one of these players where you won't really know what you get until he starts playing. Some days he's great, other days he's not.
On July 06 2016 06:29 Elentos wrote: Guess who's wondering why this isn't under SC2 General like usual?
So now that that's changed...
I agree with the predictions. But they seem so obvious. So natural. So easy. And if SSL Challenge taught me anything, it's that it probably means they won't come true. Although Zest is obviously going to advance, he's never finished worse than top 8 in a Starleague he qualified for.
I think the upsets were partly due to the crazy format in the Challenge groups, and it's likely that these more traditional groups won't be quite as volatile.
Same guess for me. Gumiho is looking very solid right now so I went with my head on this one. My heart would really love to see MC advance though. So sad two of these players have to lose in the round of 32. I would love to see all of them in the round of 8 (maybe not gumiho), but we can't always get what we want. Solar and MC have great personality so I love to see them in social gatherings like round of 16 group selection. Oh well.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
"I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing"
I don't know I think Maru TvP domination in HotS was more impressive, as he was the only terran doing well vs protoss at that time, when protoss are doing well vs terran today. However I don't think Maru TvP looked as one sided as Zest PvT.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
clearly you have never seen san make gateways
I can't remember a single day of sc2 where I would have bet on San over Life...
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
clearly you have never seen san make gateways
I can't remember a single day of sc2 where I would have bet on San over Life...
Not even the first six times they met which led to San having a 10-0 record vs life?
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
clearly you have never seen san make gateways
I can't remember a single day of sc2 where I would have bet on San over Life...
Look at those aligulac stats - San stomped him twice in that timeframe.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
Can't believe neither of you mentioned The Machine's HotS TvZ up until the widow mine nerf.
Not to mention the manner in which his dominance was carried out. He wasn't really ahead of the curve or exploiting one or two weaknesses of Zerg better than other players, but rather his play was very standard. He did what other Terrans did but with much better mechanical skill. It just had somewhat of an inevitability to it. It was a death sentence for the Zerg if he managed to safetly get 3 CCs down.
Only Soulkey (in a bo1), DRG (bo3), and Curious (bo3) managed to beat him at his own macro game during those months.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
Can't believe neither of you mentioned The Machine's HotS TvZ up until the widow mine nerf.
Not to mention the manner in which his dominance was carried out. He wasn't really ahead of the curve or exploiting one or two weaknesses of Zerg better than other players, but rather his play was very standard. He did what other Terrans did but with much better mechanical skill. It just had somewhat of an inevitability to it. It was a death sentence for the Zerg if he managed to safetly get 3 CCs down.
Only Soulkey (in a bo1), DRG (bo3), and Curious (bo3) managed to beat him at his own macro game during those months.
Pretty sure Soulkey beat him in a bo7 and it was glorious.
On July 06 2016 06:07 TeamLiquid ESPORTS wrote: I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that no player has ever dominated a matchup as hard before as Zest is currently doing.
Listen youngster, let me tell you a story about universe-creating Nestea and his ZvZ in the ancient times.
Nestea ZvZ DRG ZvT Life ZvZ PartinG PvT San PvZ
Ok for Parting PvT and maybe early Nestea ZvZ but the rest wasn't what I would call "domination".
Can't believe neither of you mentioned The Machine's HotS TvZ up until the widow mine nerf.
Not to mention the manner in which his dominance was carried out. He wasn't really ahead of the curve or exploiting one or two weaknesses of Zerg better than other players, but rather his play was very standard. He did what other Terrans did but with much better mechanical skill. It just had somewhat of an inevitability to it. It was a death sentence for the Zerg if he managed to safetly get 3 CCs down.
Only Soulkey (in a bo1), DRG (bo3), and Curious (bo3) managed to beat him at his own macro game during those months.
Pretty sure Soulkey beat him in a bo7 and it was glorious.
The only two Protoss players in history to ever win two GSL championships meet in the first match of a new Code S season? That's cool, no matter how you look at it. And with Zest dropping maps in recent weeks, some of which have been PvPs, there's a possibility for a real upset to start the new season.
The only two Protoss players in history to ever win two GSL championships meet in the first match of a new Code S season? That's cool, no matter how you look at it. And with Zest dropping maps in recent weeks, some of which have been PvPs, there's a possibility for a real upset to start the new season.