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BoxeR: "AlphaGo won't beat humans in StarCraft" - Page 7

Forum Index > SC2 General
568 CommentsPost a Reply
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Dianchie
Profile Joined February 2016
Canada10 Posts
March 13 2016 01:39 GMT
#121
I think it will be interesting to see how a human performs against the AI. The big thing is that humans can create situational strategies that defy logic and still win. Many games of StarCraft have been won that way. Obviously if the AI has perfect micro/macro that will make it a lot easier to win. I don't see it being programmed to work at 2000+ APM like some have said in this thread. They want the AI to feel like playing against a realistic human opponent.
Liquid`Nazgul
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
22427 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 01:44:07
March 13 2016 01:43 GMT
#122
There is such an incredible amount of value in perfect micro and macro, I can't really see such a high level AI having an issue cracking StarCraft over time. Yes the limited info would hinders it tremendously, but we give it back so much more in mechanics. I kind of feel people would just really like for SC to be that uncrackable game. One of reasons I love BW so much is the incredible multitasking required, something which an AI will just totally crush at. Here is an in comparison totally shitty bot:

Administrator
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12631 Posts
March 13 2016 01:44 GMT
#123
This is all PR rubbish.
Google is choosing the game that has most exposure, big community members of cause have to jump to make big claims
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
Pwere
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada1557 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 01:53:50
March 13 2016 01:45 GMT
#124
Discussing a Starcraft AI is barely better than discussing a CS:GO AI. You first need to limit the huge mechanical advantage before you can discuss what is and isn't possible.

From a purely theoretical point of view, SC is not an interesting challenge for an AI programmer/designer, so I doubt the resources will be dedicated to this for a while, and by then it won't be all that impressive.

If they plan to adapt a general AI to play Starcraft, then that is a different challenge, but the outcome still comes down to where they draw the mechanical/perceptual line.
Cluster__
Profile Joined September 2013
United States328 Posts
March 13 2016 01:55 GMT
#125
AI will definitely win...
Liquid`Snute, AcerScarlett, ROOTCatZ, MC, Maru, Soulkey, Losira
Liquid`Nazgul
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
22427 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 01:58:20
March 13 2016 01:57 GMT
#126
On March 13 2016 10:45 Pwere wrote:
Discussing a Starcraft AI is barely better than discussing a CS:GO AI. You first need to limit the huge mechanical advantage before you can discuss what is and isn't possible.

From a purely theoretical point of view, SC is not an interesting challenge for an AI programmer/designer, so I doubt the resources will be dedicated to this for a while, and by then it won't be all that impressive.

If they plan to adapt a general AI to play Starcraft, then that is a different challenge, but the outcome still comes down to where they draw the mechanical/perceptual line.

Totally agree. It doesn't make any sense to beat top pros with limited strategy and perfect execution and then brag about it from an AI perspective. A waste of time in terms of prestige.
Administrator
necrosexy
Profile Joined March 2011
451 Posts
March 13 2016 02:02 GMT
#127
On March 13 2016 09:35 thePunGun wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2016 09:17 necrosexy wrote:
On March 13 2016 08:58 DuckloadBlackra wrote:
On March 13 2016 08:35 writer22816 wrote:
Since SC isn't a perfect information game, it stands to reason that a good human player should always have the ability to at least take occasional games off of an AI. Nevertheless, even though I love Boxer and Flash, they're kidding themselves if they think that there will never be an AI that can reliably take games off of them. Most people in the gaming community think AIs are a joke because bots in video games are always easy to beat. If a company like Google or IBM threw significant resources into making a video game AI, these people would very quickly be eating their words lol. There is nothing in either Starcraft game that remotely approaches the intractability of Go, and mechanics-wise a good AI would be able to completely shit on any human player.


A sufficiently advanced AI would be able to do all the scouting it needs to gain enough information to win every time. It would remember everything perfectly and calculate the implications of what it learns with extreme precision. The biggest challenge is programming the decisions it will need to make based off this information.

You're overlooking human deceptiveness.
Computer scouts, e.g., a reactored factory and a starport. So it's a drop (or is it?), but when and where will it arrive?
If the AI detects an enemy scan, how does he interpret this? Does the scan mean dropping at the scan location or is it a bluff?

What you don't see is, when an AI scouts it knows instantly the tech, which type of units, their amount(including the current worker count) and what kind of strategies are possible. Whereas a human is 1. not able to identify the type and quantity of units
and 2. most likely will not have a database of every strategy ever up to this point, the timings of those and the correct counter measures.
An AI has no center of attention like we humans do, it does not need so called awareness like us humans. It sees what is and what is not in an instant and does not question itself or its decisions.

I know the AI will determine all the possible build orders from a scout. But scouting ends, so the AI's determination of what the human can be true or false (human deceptivness).
You seem to be implying the AI will always have scouting information at every point in the game.
DuckloadBlackra
Profile Joined July 2011
225 Posts
March 13 2016 02:02 GMT
#128
On March 13 2016 10:57 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2016 10:45 Pwere wrote:
Discussing a Starcraft AI is barely better than discussing a CS:GO AI. You first need to limit the huge mechanical advantage before you can discuss what is and isn't possible.

From a purely theoretical point of view, SC is not an interesting challenge for an AI programmer/designer, so I doubt the resources will be dedicated to this for a while, and by then it won't be all that impressive.

If they plan to adapt a general AI to play Starcraft, then that is a different challenge, but the outcome still comes down to where they draw the mechanical/perceptual line.

Totally agree. It doesn't make any sense to beat top pros with limited strategy and perfect execution and then brag about it from an AI perspective. A waste of time in terms of prestige.


Exactly.
Kyir
Profile Joined June 2011
United States1047 Posts
March 13 2016 02:48 GMT
#129
Since AlphaGo was specifically designed for Go, saying it won't win at Starcraft is probably a safe assumption.
sc2chronic
Profile Joined May 2012
United States777 Posts
March 13 2016 03:00 GMT
#130
On March 13 2016 09:12 Scarlett` wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2016 08:17 ProBell wrote:
I'm 100% sure a perfect AI can beat any progamer, at least 90% of the time. Right now most sc2 players probably can't even beat Insane AI, while all pros and hardcore sc2 players find them pretty easy. But if you're going to disagree that a human can beat a computer, think of this: every sc2 unit has somewhat of a "counter" unit. So you make 5+ marines? AI makes 1-2 banelings, not to mention, you can easily program them to never get out-micro'ed, out-economied, make 3rd cc in base? Zerg AI will send a drone for a 4th hatch AND make a good enough defense to counter your potential attack on the 4th, main army, OR drops in the main. SC2 really is about perfect micro/macro, you can say but humans have 'better' game sense or preparations going into the game with a perfect plan, but EVERY sc2 unit or build can be countered. Remember, think of going vs someone who has a PERFECT micro, even-sized army, chances of winning is pretty much next to none.

you're :
not talking about the same game
assuming the ai has full map vision
assuming the game is about 1 fight and who has a better army wins


[image loading]
terrible, terrible, damage
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
March 13 2016 03:00 GMT
#131
On March 13 2016 11:48 Kyir wrote:
Since AlphaGo was specifically designed for Go, saying it won't win at Starcraft is probably a safe assumption.

They mean the algorithm / procedure behind the AI, not the specifically trained AI for go
stevorino
Profile Joined April 2011
957 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 03:17:01
March 13 2016 03:16 GMT
#132
all predictions aside who would win the duel. i am already MASSIVELY hyped!
[_] Terran [_] Zerg [_] Protoss [X] Random ------- Fantasy - hyvaa - sOs
Legionnaire
Profile Joined January 2003
Australia4514 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 03:27:22
March 13 2016 03:24 GMT
#133
AI would win fairly easily if time was spent to make it.

- Perfect mining at every base. Which humans dont do because we can't.
- Mass micro of scout units. Constantly running around the edge of the base etc? Half the time humans dont even look as they are microing other things.
- While perfect resource spending. So many games i finish a battle and i have 1k+.
- While perfect micro, at both an early game, and late game mass army stage? Seriously.
- Worried about mine drops (sc2)? Perfect runaways. Constant mining at mineral patches that are outside of the range of the mine. Perfect timing of suiciding a probe to allow the others to mine for 30 seconds. There are just so many instances where AI would dominate at a level far in excess of human endevour.

AI's true advantage is just any unit with range, which is where the heaviest micro element comes into play during battles. But even so, on a simple level, just utilizing a perfect number of stalker attacks on a single target without wasting unneeded firepower.

Every single battle from the start of the game would add a 20%+ benefit to the AI. Which would then keep snowballing out of control.

Perhaps the perfect strategy Boxer was talking about would be his rax first bunker rush.

I'd pick terran, or toss as an AI. The link nazgul posted shows why. Range micro ftw. Rines or Bink stalkers.
My hope is one day stupid people will feel the same pain when they talk, as the pain the rest of us feel when we hear them. Twitter: @Legionnaire_au
The_Masked_Shrimp
Profile Joined February 2012
425 Posts
March 13 2016 03:33 GMT
#134
You guys realize that AlphaGo started learning while having a few turn advantages.

They don't want the machine to win with prestige, that's totally out of subject for the target. They will first try to make an AI that can beat a pro, even if it means it knows what units you build and can see through fog of war. Then they will increment on it and make it more humanlike one step at a time.
MyLovelyLurker
Profile Joined April 2007
France756 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 03:39:37
March 13 2016 03:39 GMT
#135
APM talk is justified yet goes away quickly - there is nothing preventing an APM cap at something human / Korean ( 300, 400ish ) , or even allowing the AI's only peek into the game engine to be the human opponent's APM, and using its moving average as a cap to the algorithm's own.

An AI victory in that context would arguably be much more meaningful.
"I just say, it doesn't matter win or lose, I just love Starcraft 2, I love this game, I love this stage, just play like in practice" - TIME/Oliveira
EngrishTeacher
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
Canada1109 Posts
March 13 2016 03:41 GMT
#136
I've followed SC since the early OGN BW days, yet I've never understood why the SC AIs (both BW and SC2) are still so terrible vs. a real human opponent.

Reading a few pages of replies, my view that perfect micro/macro will beat "strategy" and "overall awareness" every single time has been cemented. Exactly what are the main difficulties encountered by AI nowadays? Imagine this:

Let's suppose someone creates an AI that opens CC first or rax-CC every game, then macros and micros perfectly of course. No deep strategic awareness or even variations in BO are needed, the AI just need to CONSTANTLY poke and pressure with bio, especially after medivacs are out on the field. In its very essence, SC is a game of economy, and as long as the AI maintains a 1 base deficit or less depending on the matchup, I just don't see how the human pro can keep trading efficiently vs. perfect mechanics. Surely, eventually the army value lost will favor the AI in the extreme?


Could someone link me to some past AI vs. Pro games? I'd be really interested in seeing how the AIs are currently losing.
MyLovelyLurker
Profile Joined April 2007
France756 Posts
March 13 2016 03:56 GMT
#137
On March 13 2016 12:41 EngrishTeacher wrote:
I've followed SC since the early OGN BW days, yet I've never understood why the SC AIs (both BW and SC2) are still so terrible vs. a real human opponent.

Reading a few pages of replies, my view that perfect micro/macro will beat "strategy" and "overall awareness" every single time has been cemented. Exactly what are the main difficulties encountered by AI nowadays? Imagine this:

Let's suppose someone creates an AI that opens CC first or rax-CC every game, then macros and micros perfectly of course. No deep strategic awareness or even variations in BO are needed, the AI just need to CONSTANTLY poke and pressure with bio, especially after medivacs are out on the field. In its very essence, SC is a game of economy, and as long as the AI maintains a 1 base deficit or less depending on the matchup, I just don't see how the human pro can keep trading efficiently vs. perfect mechanics. Surely, eventually the army value lost will favor the AI in the extreme?


Could someone link me to some past AI vs. Pro games? I'd be really interested in seeing how the AIs are currently losing.


This strategy goes away if the AI learns by playing against itself.


It's that process which is interesting, much more so than creating an ever-winning, 6-pool + 1000 APM bot.
"I just say, it doesn't matter win or lose, I just love Starcraft 2, I love this game, I love this stage, just play like in practice" - TIME/Oliveira
fishjie
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1519 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-13 04:02:22
March 13 2016 04:01 GMT
#138
A better test is if an AI can beat a human if its APM were capped at some limit.

I'm going to say yes. AI has been drastically improving by leaps and bounds. In the machine learning world, the switch from statistical methods of machine learning to neural nets (which are vaguely modelled on our limited understanding of our human brain) is happening. Often times due to lack of training data in problem fields such as natural language processing, statistical methods are used to generate the training data. Either way, the results speak for themselves. Image search in google photos (without any tagging) is disturbingly good. Self driving cars. Watson trashing Jennings. Alpha go destroying the world's best player. So on and so forth.

Be afraid. Mass unemployment is just one of the dangers of this runaway AI.
Legionnaire
Profile Joined January 2003
Australia4514 Posts
March 13 2016 04:07 GMT
#139
On March 13 2016 12:41 EngrishTeacher wrote:
I've followed SC since the early OGN BW days, yet I've never understood why the SC AIs (both BW and SC2) are still so terrible vs. a real human opponent.


What humans like is something that plays;
- a fraction above their current ability. (So you get a challenge and feel like you've done something worthwhile when you win)
- is humanlike (can be unpredictable, yet it will still reacts to what you are doing) so that it gives you a challenge.
- Yet its also something that is beatable, else whats the point of playing then? (Think TA:Escalation where hard comp mode has infinite resources and if you dont kill it with a commander rush you die after 5 mins).

Yet from a companies prospective, this is so damn hard and expensive to do. It's far easier to make 'hard AI' by simply cheating and giving them map awareness or money or something. (Think Civilisation 4. They add difficulty by just making the AI build faster, research faster, and start with more units.) This takes a day of effort to make instead of weeks/months of design/ build time by a team of programmers.

Even if a company goes to all of that effort to make good AI. Someone can still find a flaw in the AI which means you will always win. (scv rush and attack the enemy CC, then run away and have all the scvs follow you etc etc)

It is a fine line for companies to walk. But i do agree, i wish they had something better for good players to play against.

Considering the expense of making real AI. Combined with the fact most players are bad and would prefer to have a 20min BGH no rush game so they can build up and move out at their own pace. You can see why game dev goes the way it does. The top 5% will never really be happy with any AI that can be built.

Besides, that's what multiplayer is for
My hope is one day stupid people will feel the same pain when they talk, as the pain the rest of us feel when we hear them. Twitter: @Legionnaire_au
EvilTeletubby
Profile Blog Joined January 2004
Baltimore, USA22258 Posts
March 13 2016 04:23 GMT
#140
Holy shit it's Legionnaire.
Moderatorhttp://carbonleaf.yuku.com/topic/408/t/So-I-proposed-at-a-Carbon-Leaf-concert.html ***** RIP Geoff
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