Monday Night Starcraft

Just as we were getting into the groove, Proleague switches things up again. In Week 4, wil will only have two matches, both played on Monday. Sorry KT, MVP and Afreeca fans; I guess you’re gonna have to wait until next week for your teamleague fixes. While it might be a bit disappointing to only have half the content we’re used to, this was inevitable—a seven team league means that we’ll only get 21 matches in the Round Robin (which, as maths boffins will tell you, isn’t divisible by 4). What this does mean is that two teams, SKT and Jin Air, are not required to play twice in a week this Round. Whether that’s merely a randomised quirk of the system, or a reward for both reaching the Grand Finals of last year’s event is unclear, but it seems like a nice perk for both teams, especially for Jin Air and their reduced six man roster. We’ve got a quick recap of last week’s events for you, before moving on to Samsung vs SKT and CJ vs Jin Air.

Five Conclusions

1. KT were the big winners of Week 3. So far, we’ve seen teams struggle when forced to juggle their roster between two matches in a week (Afreeca 1-1 against SKT and CJ, MVP 0-2 against CJ and Samsung), but KT became the first team to win both matches played. It’s especially notable given the calibre of the opposition—Afreeca have been the most impressive non-Telecom team so far, while despite their early season woes, Jin Air can never be counted out given their triple-threat core.
   
   
2. Much like his team, TY also won big this week. KT could have easily lost faith in their star terran after he was cheesed out twice by the SKT zergs, but two regular wins plus his ace match clincher this time round quickly silenced his doubters. I’d still argue that Zest was by far the safer choice in Game 5 against Afreeca, given the high probability of aLive being sent out with his threatening TvT, and indeed the terran nearly completed a second miracle comeback in two weeks. Still though, you can’t argue too much with a 3-0, and it seems like TY has finally found himself at the head of the KT pack.
   
   
3. Another worrying week for CJ Entus fans. Depending on how highly you rate RagnaroK and Bunny, there’s a strong argument that CJ have the weakest squad in the competition aside from MVP. Their twin aces in ByuL and herO are the only thing keeping them in the hunt for the playoffs this season, and the statistic I brought up in Week 2 has only got worse—over the past two seasons, CJ are 5-11 when either herO or ByuL lose in the opening four matches. They can’t keep carrying for ever, and as we saw against Samsung, it’s inevitable that one of the two will fail now and then. With a small six man squad, you’d expect that CJ desperately need reinforcements, or sudden improvement in their performances (Bbyong especially) if they’re going to come close to matching their heroics in the past couple of years.
   
   
4. It’s probably going to get dull repeating this point every week throughout the season, but yes—SKT won again. Aside from Classic making the blunder of allowing GuMiho to impose his particular brand of chaos upon the game, once again SKT looked far too solid for their opposition, with decent wins for INnoVation, soO and Dark. INnoVation’s win though should give his opponents some food for thought; rolling over DeParture with an absurdly powerful army against a HotS-esque muta/ling/bane composition. There’s the sense that yet again, he would have been vulnerable early on against a quick bust or roach play, and sooner or later, someone’s going to call his bluff.
   
   
5. Of the teams outside the Big Four, it’s not just Afreeca on an upwards trajectory this season. Samsung currently sit third in the table, having played one game fewer than both teams around them. Once again they looked great this week. With every game that passes, Dear looks more and more like he’s recaptured the form that drove him to BlizzCon in 2013, finally nailing his engagements and hitting the crisp timings that deserted him for much of 2014 and early 2015, while this week Reality deservedly beat herO and BrAvO won against a weak Hush. Much like last year, if they (finally) get Solar up and running in Proleague, they should be regarded as very real contenders.

Samsung vs SKT

Dear <Dusk Towers> Dream

Taking into account Dear’s great early-season form so far, and Dream’s success in Code S against herO, this is arguably the set of the week. We’ve seen Dear beat a ton of quality protosses, as well as a decent pair of zergs in DeParture and RagnaroK recently, but his Proleague win against GuMiho remains the only time he’s played a terran this year. It’ll be interesting if he opts for the same mid-game aggression he’s been favouring in the other matchups, or something more akin to Zest’s late game play that he demonstrated against Maru. I’m still not utterly convinced by Dream yet, despite the 2-1 win over herO—there’s a sense that yet again, the CJ protoss’ penchant for committing fully to an attack without ever considering if drawing back and consolidating was ever an option got him into trouble—and up against one of the best protosses of Legacy so far, we might get a better idea of his current power.

Reality <Lerilak Crest> Dark

After seeing Dark monster his way through most of the top protosses in Korea recently, it’s time to see him turn his attentions back to terrans. Aside from his pretty simple 3-1 win over GuMiho in Code A, and his nydus victory over TY in Proleague, we haven’t seen anything in the matchup from one of the very best ZvTers of 2015. Meanwhile, it’s still difficult to know what to think of Reality. He was a decent option for Samsung in Proleague 2015 (6-5), and looked especially competent in the mech-tinged TvTs and TvZs of the latter part of the year. However, he’s been pretty anonymous so far this year. He was thoroughly outplayed by SpeeD in the latter’s Code A debut, and is 1-1 in TvP set against Stats and herO in Proleague. Dark should simply have too many options for him, whether he continues his trend of early aggression or attempts to outplay him in the mid-game.

Solar <Ruins of Seras> INnoVation

We’ve seen INnoVation repeatedly open himself up to early aggression in TvZ this year. Whether his opponents called his bluff (RagnaroK and soO in SSL) or didn’t (Leenock and DeParture in Proleague), he’s always looked somewhat vulnerable. Up against one of the strongest zergs of Legacy, and one fully aware of all the devious strategies open to him, it’s difficult to imagine he’ll be able to get away with such greed again. It’s the titanic battle between an eminently beatable terran and a zerg’s endless Proleague curse. If INnoVation continues his recent trend, expect Solar to bust him and take a second PL win for the year.

BrAvO <Prion Terraces> soO

After cementing his status as one of the premier TvTers of HotS last year, BrAvO has fallen on tough times in the first months of Legacy. He’s dodged the online scene for the most part, sticking to starleague qualifiers and Proleague. However, removing his 2-0 wins over noted powerhouses NaTuRal and Minty in his qualifier runs, he’s currently running at a 10-19 record. Out of both leagues, the only two wins he’s managed so far have come against DRG back in October and against a similarly weak-looking Hush last week. Now granted, that’s a pretty small sample size of relevant results, but there’s nothing here which could convince me that he’s capable of beating soO. soO might not be the most prolific player either, but he’s at least looked good in those appearances (and racked up a 22-9 record).


Ace: <Orbital Shipyard>

Well, SKT’s protosses should be off the table here for starters. Classic has shown weakness against Dark’s lurker style (and appears to have been rested for his Friday Code S group), while MyuNgSiK’s been very hit or miss so far. Plus, there’s the lingering threat of Solar’s perfect ZvP record so far this expansion. I think Dark has probably still got the job following his win against KT, but any of the other three playing tonight are more than capable. For Samsung, it depends on whether they want to heap even more pressure on Solar. Dear would be the better choice in my opinion, but I reckon that Stork will go for Solar here.

Predictions

Dear > Dream
Reality < Dark
Solar > INnoVation
BrAvO < soO
Solar < Dark

Samsung 2 - 3 SKT

CJ vs Jin Air

ByuL <Prion Terraces>Rogue

Last time we saw these two teams together, they were playing for a spot in the Grand Finals against SKT. This week, they’re fighting for a chance to not be 6th. No player reflects the changes in the two teams’ fortunes than Rogue. He was one of the most consistent players in the world throughout 2014-15, but his start to Legacy has gone very wrong indeed. Now granted, every player should have the leeway to have a truly awful day once in a while, such as his 0-4 Code S group, but he’s looked equally poor against Super and Stats in Proleague. However, he’s got a ZvZ this time round, and coming off a 3-2 online win against Soulkey, this might be where he starts to turn it around. After all, ByuL was 0-3’d with ease by Solar in the SSL, even if he won the second time round in Proleague. The odds look stacked against CJ this week, and they really need ByuL to get them off to a good start.

Bunny <Ulrena> Maru

This time last year, we’d have called this as a guaranteed banker for Maru and stopped right there. This year though… well yeah, it’s pretty much the same. Bunny has shown nothing of note in TvT, while Maru is unbeaten (even if his four wins have come against weak players). Bunny has looked notably good in the other two matchups—emerging from his Code S group last week at the expense of Symbol and Soulkey—but that’s still no reason to back him here.

herO <Dusk Towers> sOs

After Dear vs Dream, this is the runner-up for Set of the Week. sOs has been a strange player to watch so far. He brought his typical flair and mental acuity to his Code S tie against Dear, but was booted out of the competition by the Samsung player’s superior engagements; he lost to ByuN at the very first stage of the SSL qualifiers; and to Zest in his only Proleague match of the season so far. It’s hard to tell whether he’s out of touch, or if he’s simply come up against three of the best players in Legacy so far in his crucial matches. The one thing pointing in his favour was his win at IEM Taipei, where he looked superior to everyone else in attendance to a ludicrous level. In this rematch against herO, it’s time to see which sOs will show up.

RagnaroK <Lerilak Crest> Trap

Much like sOs actually, it’s pretty hard to tell where RagnaroK stands in the new world order of Legacy of the Void. He has made it to the top six of the SSL, but it’s undeniable that that’s been solely based off two cheesy wins over INnoVation and ByuN (plus an admittedly impressive qualifier run). He’s also been poor on the other two fronts—he lost to Super in Code A, and is 1-2 in Proleague. Is he merely a nydus artist in ZvT? Or does he have something else to offer? His game against Trap isn’t quite as daunting as it would’ve been last year; the noted PvZ enthusiast has struggled in the matchup in LotV, and it’s a chance for RagnaroK to prove he’s not a one trick pony.

Ace: <Ruins of Seras>

Each team essentially has two options—herO or ByuL for CJ, and Maru or sOs for Jin Air (should Rogue continue to perform equally poorly this week). It all depends on herO vs sOs. Should one of the two play badly in their first match of the night, it’s likely that the other ace player on the team will see action. I’d therefore have to go with ByuL vs sOs.

Predictions

ByuL > Rogue
Bunny < Maru
herO vs sOs
RagnaroK < Trap

CJ 1 - 3 Jin Air