On April 21 2015 10:56 Swoopae wrote: Would mvp be willing to release the replay for examination by the public?
Proleague replays aren't released as it is, so i doubt it
Mvp have access to the replay. They claim that it exonerates their player. Perhaps they could privately show it to a panel of trustworthy experts say totalbiscuit huk welmu kane rekrul and lichter or something if the replay cant be released publicly?
Kespa could also just make an exception to their rule and release it. That's not what they want. They clearly don't want to draw any attention to it. If kespa cared thay would have made a statement by now. Their strategy is to sweep it under the rug and hope that it will go away. I suspect it will grow however and at some point it will be difficult to ignore. Let's hope that this happens before the scene is too damaged to recover.
Honest question. If a player were to agree to match-fix but ultimately ended up winning, how would he be punished by the betters?
Like if MarineKing really did agree to match-fix but was given a free win. Would the match-betters (dunno the formal term) find some way to fine him? Or would he just not get the match-fixing money.
I'm guessing these match-fixers aren't some kind of mafia who will track down players and jump them. What are players usually scared of besides their want for money.
On April 21 2015 07:19 Dodgin wrote: It's nice that we got a statement but frankly I'm not convinced.
Yeah the statement was just "MKP insisted he didn't, so therefore we're going to back up our man", which isn't a bad thing to say, except it doesn't really provide closure to anyone wondering what MKP's mindset was and how he didn't react appropriately at all. What was his rationale and why did he make the decisions he made during the game? I guess MVP is just chalking it up to nerves and saying that MKP really did play that poorly.
On April 21 2015 10:56 Swoopae wrote: Would mvp be willing to release the replay for examination by the public?
Proleague replays aren't released as it is, so i doubt it
Mvp have access to the replay. They claim that it exonerates their player. Perhaps they could privately show it to a panel of trustworthy experts say totalbiscuit huk welmu kane rekrul and lichter or something if the replay cant be released publicly?
They could also just make an exception to their rule and release it. That's not what they want. They clearly don't want to draw any attention to it. If they cared that would have made a statement by now. Their strategy is to sweep it under the rug and hope that it will go away. I suspect it will grow however and at some point it will be difficult to ignore. Let's hope that this happens before the scene is too damaged to recover.
I don't think you understand how much Kespa limits MVP's options.
On April 21 2015 11:43 Brutaxilos wrote: Honest question. If a player were to agree to match-fix but ultimately ended up winning, how would he be punished by the betters?
Like if MarineKing really did agree to match-fix but was given a free win. Would the match-betters (dunno the formal term) find some way to fine him? Or would he just not get the match-fixing money.
I'm guessing these match-fixers aren't some kind of mafia who will track down players and jump them. What are players usually scared of besides their want for money.
Seeing as how it's illegal, I don't see how a formal fine could even be assigned, unless the people wanted to shake him down and threaten him with exposure. I wouldn't be surprised if things got pretty serious and emotional for a lot of people... big bets could be on the line, and people could lose a lot of money.
On April 21 2015 10:07 fruity. wrote: Here's the VOD of the game in question.
A theme in this thread seems to be 'they cancelled the bets therefore there is match fixing going on'. Sorry, but that in itself does not prove anything. It may be suspicious, but can't be used as any sort of proof on its own.
So where might any potential proof lie?
This is the point in the VOD where the weird shit happens. https://youtu.be/J-XbHBQAco8?t=267 Byul proxies a hatch, and soon after drops the first spine crawler, it's this spine crawler which is clearly seen on MK's minimap, the observer switches to first person view a couple of times, and you can clearly see it. A big blob within spitting distance of MK's main.
Now sometime in the past the our beloved Day9 did a daily on rotation. Basically: Check SCV production, check army production, check minimap. Rinse and repeat. Good advice. From the moment MK should see the spine crawler to when he actually reacts to it is 1minute 15 seconds in real time.
So am I to believe that a progamer who had his first offline tournament 5 years ago, whos whole life has been dedicated to SC is not going to check his minimap for that duration? Bullshit. Total bullshit. Most of the players here would've spotted that spine crawler faster than MK. Further if you watch MK there's a couple of times at least you can see him glancing down to the bottom left. The only reason to do this in SC is to check the minimap, they know where the keys are from muscle memory, there's no need to check hot groups...
Add in his body language, it's just wrong. Wolf comments on this.
Someone earlier said that it could've been an overlord. Sure that sounds good. But why didn't he go check? Why would he allow potential viewing of his base? Isn't the normal thing for anyone going up against zerg to think 'ooooh overlord - let me go kill it to maybe get a supply block'. Especially at the start (4-5ish mins in game time).
Now add in the fact that online betting sites tracked line movements which were odd and made them cancel the bets.
Is the above enough to convict MK? Each point I raise in isolation is not. But when you add them all together? For me at the very very least it's left me thinking that there will be a cloud over MK. Is that fair or reasonable on my part, perhaps not, but in the absence of real proof like a recorded phone conversation, and considering the points I raised above, is fucking well suspicious.
As for MVP's statement. I thank them for at least making a statement. Though I'm not exactly sure of what else they could say in the absence of definitive proof. But for me I just can't see how a progamer would not react to that in a million years. It must be unprecedented at this level of play, we're not talking about a medivac clipping a player's vision here. Were talking about static defence, outside MK's base clearly seen for over a minute.
so explain to me how a Korean pro good enough to beat a lot of well known other Korean pro's forgets that one needs a forge to cannon rush. explain how one forgets to research stim or combat shields than explain to me how that's so much more likely of a mistake to make than thinking a dot you don't have vision of is an overlord. or perhaps not noticing the dot at all.
Thinking you'd built a forge is a very rare lapse but the player would realise pretty quickly. Building the same building twice can happen too. Missing an upgrade is also believable if you thought you'd hit it as it's not checked that often. Mistakes happen but missing a dot on the minimap early game for over a minute, something progamers are constantly checking (a reaction time of more than a few seconds would be extremely slow), is completely unbelievable.
It's believable mainly if the argument is used that he thought the red dot was an overlord.
I could TOTALLY see myself in MKP's position sitting there deep in thought about what I'm going to do this game (or having my mind racing because of serious nerves) and then noticing the dot on the minimap and assuming it's an overlord because that's exactly where overlords always come from when I play zergs on expedition lost. It's very unlikely in the heat of the moment that I'm going to think "hey that might not actually be an overlord I should go look and make sure." I don't know about MKP but in my experience proxy hatch builds are EXTREMELY rare (to the extent that I haven't seen it on ladder in months) and I would never think of that as a possibility, especially in a proleague match. He was probably very confused when he saw the lack of a natural.
With all due respect though, there are very few of us who could truly see ourselves in MKP's position. You visualizing how you would have reacted (or not reacted) isn't necessarily the same as how a top tier progamer would approach the same thing., let alone with the level of tournament experience and exposure as MKP.
Well thats pretty nice, you can matchfix in sc2 all you want and nothing will ever happen - a betting line can move to 1.001 odds for a bo1, plus a match can look like a complete throw with a horrible acting on top - but as long as you say "no, i didnt do it" - you are golden. You will even get shielded by a majory of the community. Easy money, easy life.
Also i cant really believe that "statement" had enough power to sway some % of the people to the "there was zero evidence anyway" side. Jesus christ people, really?
On April 21 2015 11:43 Brutaxilos wrote: Honest question. If a player were to agree to match-fix but ultimately ended up winning, how would he be punished by the betters?
Like if MarineKing really did agree to match-fix but was given a free win. Would the match-betters (dunno the formal term) find some way to fine him? Or would he just not get the match-fixing money.
I'm guessing these match-fixers aren't some kind of mafia who will track down players and jump them. What are players usually scared of besides their want for money.
From what I have heard: The illegal betting scene in general is huge in korea. How big the sc2 part of it is i don't know. It's certainly possible that there is a kind of mafia behind it that would pressure the player. Maybe the player also has to pay a security fee that he gets back if he loses. I don't know.
On April 21 2015 10:56 Swoopae wrote: Would mvp be willing to release the replay for examination by the public?
Proleague replays aren't released as it is, so i doubt it
Mvp have access to the replay. They claim that it exonerates their player. Perhaps they could privately show it to a panel of trustworthy experts say totalbiscuit huk welmu kane rekrul and lichter or something if the replay cant be released publicly?
Kespa could also just make an exception to their rule and release it. That's not what they want. They clearly don't want to draw any attention to it. If kespa cared thay would have made a statement by now. Their strategy is to sweep it under the rug and hope that it will go away. I suspect it will grow however and at some point it will be difficult to ignore. Let's hope that this happens before the scene is too damaged to recover.
Edit: clarified they=kespa
you do realize what happened with BW and how they punished the players who were caught right?
So I see a tweet from a rep from MVP on the first page where they said he did and in the first post they say he didn't. What's happening?
I also see no updates on the investigation. If anyone should be doing a proper investigation like before it would be the police. Not some journalist.
On April 21 2015 10:56 Swoopae wrote: Would mvp be willing to release the replay for examination by the public?
Proleague replays aren't released as it is, so i doubt it
Mvp have access to the replay. They claim that it exonerates their player. Perhaps they could privately show it to a panel of trustworthy experts say totalbiscuit huk welmu kane rekrul and lichter or something if the replay cant be released publicly?
Kespa could also just make an exception to their rule and release it. That's not what they want. They clearly don't want to draw any attention to it. If kespa cared thay would have made a statement by now. Their strategy is to sweep it under the rug and hope that it will go away. I suspect it will grow however and at some point it will be difficult to ignore. Let's hope that this happens before the scene is too damaged to recover.
Edit: clarified they=kespa
you do realize what happened with BW and how they punished the players who were caught right?
So I see a tweet from a rep from MVP on the first page where they said he did and in the first post they say he didn't. What's happening?
I also see no updates on the investigation. If anyone should be doing a proper investigation like before it would be the police. Not some journalist.
The MVP coach says he is innocent.
I have no idea what happened in bw. That was before my time here. I only heard that the betting scandal was obvious for a while and when they finally did something the damage was already done. But correct me if i am wrong. that's just what i read in the recent threads here.
For the police to be involved there has to be a complaint. I am not a Korean citizen. I am not sure if someone even formed an offical complaint.
On April 21 2015 08:14 Circumstance wrote: Quick reminder that TB has personally had to do EXACTLY what MVP did here - question one of his own players due to allegations of intentionally losing games and release a statement explaining it. I'll take his word on the matter as trustworthy.
TB doesn't know anything more than we do about this, it's just his own opinion.
The difference being I do know about the burden of proof which some people on this forum seem to have not been taught.
Unfortunately you dont know much about the betting lines and probability theory to have your opinion really count on the matter.
A theme in this thread seems to be 'they cancelled the bets therefore there is match fixing going on'. Sorry, but that in itself does not prove anything. It may be suspicious, but can't be used as any sort of proof on its own.
So where might any potential proof lie?
This is the point in the VOD where the weird shit happens. https://youtu.be/J-XbHBQAco8?t=267 Byul proxies a hatch, and soon after drops the first spine crawler, it's this spine crawler which is clearly seen on MK's minimap, the observer switches to first person view a couple of times, and you can clearly see it. A big blob within spitting distance of MK's main.
Now sometime in the past the our beloved Day9 did a daily on rotation. Basically: Check SCV production, check army production, check minimap. Rinse and repeat. Good advice. From the moment MK should see the spine crawler to when he actually reacts to it is 1minute 15 seconds in real time.
So am I to believe that a progamer who had his first offline tournament 5 years ago, whos whole life has been dedicated to SC is not going to check his minimap for that duration? Bullshit. Total bullshit. Most of the players here would've spotted that spine crawler faster than MK. Further if you watch MK there's a couple of times at least you can see him glancing down to the bottom left. The only reason to do this in SC is to check the minimap, they know where the keys are from muscle memory, there's no need to check hot groups...
Add in his body language, it's just wrong. Wolf comments on this.
Someone earlier said that it could've been an overlord. Sure that sounds good. But why didn't he go check? Why would he allow potential viewing of his base? Isn't the normal thing for anyone going up against zerg to think 'ooooh overlord - let me go kill it to maybe get a supply block'. Especially at the start (4-5ish mins in game time).
Now add in the fact that online betting sites tracked line movements which were odd and made them cancel the bets.
Is the above enough to convict MK? Each point I raise in isolation is not. But when you add them all together? For me at the very very least it's left me thinking that there will be a cloud over MK. Is that fair or reasonable on my part, perhaps not, but in the absence of real proof like a recorded phone conversation, and considering the points I raised above, is fucking well suspicious.
As for MVP's statement. I thank them for at least making a statement. Though I'm not exactly sure of what else they could say in the absence of definitive proof. But for me I just can't see how a progamer would not react to that in a million years. It must be unprecedented at this level of play, we're not talking about a medivac clipping a player's vision here. Were talking about static defence, outside MK's base clearly seen for over a minute.
so explain to me how a Korean pro good enough to beat a lot of well known other Korean pro's forgets that one needs a forge to cannon rush. explain how one forgets to research stim or combat shields than explain to me how that's so much more likely of a mistake to make than thinking a dot you don't have vision of is an overlord. or perhaps not noticing the dot at all.
Thinking you'd built a forge is a very rare lapse but the player would realise pretty quickly. Building the same building twice can happen too. Missing an upgrade is also believable if you thought you'd hit it as it's not checked that often. Mistakes happen but missing a dot on the minimap early game for over a minute, something progamers are constantly checking (a reaction time of more than a few seconds would be extremely slow), is completely unbelievable.
It's believable mainly if the argument is used that he thought the red dot was an overlord.
I could TOTALLY see myself in MKP's position sitting there deep in thought about what I'm going to do this game (or having my mind racing because of serious nerves) and then noticing the dot on the minimap and assuming it's an overlord because that's exactly where overlords always come from when I play zergs on expedition lost. It's very unlikely in the heat of the moment that I'm going to think "hey that might not actually be an overlord I should go look and make sure." I don't know about MKP but in my experience proxy hatch builds are EXTREMELY rare (to the extent that I haven't seen it on ladder in months) and I would never think of that as a possibility, especially in a proleague match. He was probably very confused when he saw the lack of a natural.
Having played in lan tournaments at a decent amateur level and years of gaming (I even played LAN showmatches vs Nada and herO where I was shaking with nerves). I've made collossal fuckups in game due to nerves/mental breakdowns but they're split second mistakes, reacting in a retarded way or not reacting for 5-10 seconds to something on the minimap (still really bad) but I've never come close to what MKP did. Anyone decent at the game won't miss something for that long. It's just not conceivable that a progamer of MKP's calibre can not react to something on the minimap for 30 seconds, let alone over a minute, with no natural going up on a map where the dot is beside his destructible back door. The game itself is damning, the betting lines are damning. Fanboyism/naivety is the only thing stopping people from seeing what 99.9% happened. The fixed BW games weren't nearly as obvious as this one.
As for the overlord argument. Overlords disappear in fog of war, any decent player knows instantly that it's a building once it sticks on the map outside of his vision.
On April 21 2015 10:56 Swoopae wrote: Would mvp be willing to release the replay for examination by the public?
Proleague replays aren't released as it is, so i doubt it
Mvp have access to the replay. They claim that it exonerates their player. Perhaps they could privately show it to a panel of trustworthy experts say totalbiscuit huk welmu kane rekrul and lichter or something if the replay cant be released publicly?
Kespa could also just make an exception to their rule and release it. That's not what they want. They clearly don't want to draw any attention to it. If kespa cared thay would have made a statement by now. Their strategy is to sweep it under the rug and hope that it will go away. I suspect it will grow however and at some point it will be difficult to ignore. Let's hope that this happens before the scene is too damaged to recover.
Edit: clarified they=kespa
you do realize what happened with BW and how they punished the players who were caught right?
So I see a tweet from a rep from MVP on the first page where they said he did and in the first post they say he didn't. What's happening?
I also see no updates on the investigation. If anyone should be doing a proper investigation like before it would be the police. Not some journalist.
The MVP coach says he is innocent.
I have no idea what happened in bw. That was before my time here. I only heard that the betting scandal was obvious for a while and when they finally did something the damage was already done. But correct me if i am wrong. that's just what i read in the recent threads here.
For the police to be involved there has to be a complaint. I am not a Korean citizen. I am not sure if someone even formed an offical complaint.
Well you might want to look it up then because KeSPA took that shit very seriously. It gave the whole scene a big black eye and was just one variable in transition mode. Some people might say what they did like erasing certain records a little too far.
I think it's interesting that if there were a lot of KeSPA players accused of such things that they wouldn't follow the same procedures with regards to what happened before.
In any case folks. Match fixing scandals, betting, cheating etc. isn't going to go away anytime soon. A lot of your so called idols were guilty of doing such things too. People do stupid shit when they're young and don't think the better. Considering a lot of the amateur foreigners and Koreans are somewhat young and the fact they weren't making a whole lot of money back then-- I'm sure it's a little better now if you're in the 2 percent of the decent. Meh.
But I cannot understand your statement. When you talk about degeneration do you mean his emotionality? Because I always thought this was a sign that MKP was serious about the games he played. Not sure why you think that a gamer with such a mentality was predestined to matchfix.
I am always getting puzzled why people assume that MKP is somehow less likely to matchfix. Just like Kane said "If anyone would matchfix, i am not surprised if it would be MarineKing".
I mean, the guy was good once, then became irrelevant, moved to LoL for money - failed, "came back" to sc2 - failed too, pretty much cant win against anyone anymore, dont have any shot of ever even placing top8 or so in a tournament.
And somehow that makes him "immune" to matchfixing in the eyes of some people.
I am not talking about you specifically, just in general.
I think if pinnacle would offer betting lines on "which sc2 player would be exposed in matchfixing" - MKP would be a pretty decent favorite actually.
I mean, it's suspicious as fuck, and we as a community should keep a close eye on MarineKing but I also believe that the MVP team has a lot to lose in this situation if they are wrong about him being guilty; and for that reason, I choose to believe they are making what they believe is the right call and I will stand by them.
MKP's fake surprise reaction really just gives it away, in combination with the spine having been on his minimap for the previous minute, him not looking around with reapers, and the creep having been at his cc for a couple seconds.
On April 21 2015 12:54 Doodsmack wrote: MKP's fake surprise reaction really just gives it away, in combination with the spine having been on his minimap for the previous minute, him not looking around with reapers, and the creep having been at his cc for a couple seconds.
Doesnt really matter, if the combination of the most suspicious game ever plus the betting line is barely enough to convince about the 25% of the community at best - the matchfixing trend will continue.
But I cannot understand your statement. When you talk about degeneration do you mean his emotionality? Because I always thought this was a sign that MKP was serious about the games he played. Not sure why you think that a gamer with such a mentality was predestined to matchfix.
I am always getting puzzled why people assume that MKP is somehow less likely to matchfix. Just like Kane said "If anyone would matchfix, i am not surprised if it would be MarineKing".
I mean, the guy was good once, then became irrelevant, moved to LoL for money - failed, "came back" to sc2 - failed too, pretty much cant win against anyone anymore, dont have any shot of ever even placing top8 or so in a tournament.
And somehow that makes him "immune" to matchfixing in the eyes of some people.
I am not talking about you specifically, just in general.
I think if pinnacle would offer betting lines on "which sc2 player would be exposed in matchfixing" - MKP would be a pretty decent favorite actually.
On April 21 2015 08:14 Circumstance wrote: Quick reminder that TB has personally had to do EXACTLY what MVP did here - question one of his own players due to allegations of intentionally losing games and release a statement explaining it. I'll take his word on the matter as trustworthy.
TB doesn't know anything more than we do about this, it's just his own opinion.
The difference being I do know about the burden of proof which some people on this forum seem to have not been taught.
Unfortunately you dont know much about the betting lines and probability theory to have your opinion really count on the matter.
its always cute to see random forum users dictating whose opinion does and does not matter.
Burden of proof remains, indisputable. If you can't prove it then its nothing more than a witchhunt. The best thing that can be done here is to encourage KeSPA to perform an investigation of their own, internet detectives on TL and Reddit aren't going to get shit done other than further antagonizing people and wasting everyones time.
EPT
