EPTA Chance to Shine
by munch, Destructicon and The_Templar
Dear vs RagnaroK
After
Dear’s sudden fall from grace in his time with Mouz, many wrote him off completely. The first player ever to complete the journey from GSL champion to Code B within one season, it was staggering that the slick timings and rock solid play that characterised his rise to fame had slipped from his grasp so quickly. But, step by step, he has started to rebuild himself. He has been unfortunate to be eliminated twice from the Code S group stages, first finding himself matched with PartinG and an inspired TRUE at the height of his powers back in 2014, and then Dark and a resurgent MMA in the most recent season. It was his run in the debut season of the Starcraft 2 Starleague though that perhaps hints at a brighter outlook for the Samsung Protoss. His 4-0 sweep of his Round of 16 group, first dismantling GuMiho and then Rogue, was an impressive display against two in-form players.Up against him though is a player still somewhat shrouded in mystery. For a long time,
RagnaroK engaged in a fruitless quest for relevancy in the Starcraft individual arena. His first two years in the scene, spent first on TSL, and then on IM and AZUBU yielded a solitary appearance in Code S. With the disbandment of AZUBU, no one would have blamed him for retiring. But there’s clearly a fire that still burns within RagnaroK that drives him onwards. Clearly his precarious situation brought out the best in him—he succeeded in qualifying for his second Code S despite being teamless. He followed up that success with a stunning run through the MLG Anaheim Open Bracket, including victories over HyuN, Seed, Bomber and Heart, finally finishing just outside the top 4. Since then though, he hasn’t appeared very much at all, with the notable exception of his 1st place finish at the Hong Kong Esports Tournament in August 2014.Predictions
One quirk about RagnaroK statistically is that his career win percentage in offline matches is 13% higher than in online matches, standing at a healthy 62%. While that might be explained by his success in the two foreign LAN events that he has attended, it might also be an indicator that he deals with the additional pressure far better than others. However, he simply hasn't played enough in the past year or so for us to draw any real conclusions about his play, and I think that Dear will simply have too much class for him to handle.
Dear 3 – 1 RagnaroK Bomber vs Shine
When a player drops out of a major tournamet you expect to see increased activity in online cups and qualifiers. However after his unceremonious exit in the GSL Ro32 at the hands of TY and YongHwa,
Bomber has been very quiet. He hasn't participated in any Olimoleagues, KungFu Cups, IEM qualifiers or S2SL qualifiers. As far as we know, Bomber is as we have always known: a frighteningly strong macro player who can out produce nearly anyone in the world. His incredible economic management shines most in TvZ, where, if he can get up to 3 bases unhindered, it becomes very hard to stop him. In recent years he has also expanded his repertoire to include clever build orders which he he used in longer series in both TvT and TvP. His storied past is of little use to us now, however, because we know far less about his current condition than we did 3 months ago. Bomber has barely played in any televised matches and has resigned himself to the role of "coach" in Proleague. While his history suggests he deserves to be the favorite, this matchup could prove to be a dicey one because he has a well documented weakness against cheeses. His chances of staying alive in the GSL, his lone tournament right now, will depend heavily on his form and how well he prepares for his opponent.If Bomber were at the height of his powers, then his opponent would arguably be the favorite. That makes little sense, but
Shine has always had a penchant for knocking out heavy hitters. On the other hand we do know Shine's recent form isn't very impressive at the moment. Apart from his GSL qualifier run, in which he defeated Stats, and his victory over YoDa in Proleague, Shine has continued to meander in that range of players that have shown they have the ability but never get many chances. When he has gotten one, he has taken it for granted. He suffered a crushing loss against Rogue weeks earlier in a game that he had in the bag. And up till now success in online qualifiers has also eluded him. While his victory over Stats is impressive, it won't help him here as his ZvT sits at a worrisome 48%, with losses to MarineKing, jjakji, Maru, TY and Heart in most recent times. Still, Shine does have some things in his favor: he is a master of cheese and he can also use his reputation to squeeze in the odd macro game that may catch Bomber off guard.This is a difficult prediction to make because we don't know what shape Bomber is in. However if he's been practicing and preparing, then expect him to make it. He holds the advantage in win percentage with a 60% rate in TvZ and he is very strong in the Bo5 format. On the other hand Shine is devious with his mindgames—will he cheese or won't he?—and Bomber has had issues with those due to his affinity for greed. Still, I'm going to go with the tried and tested veteran.
Prediction:
Bomber 3 - 1 ShineSan vs Sacsri
San is normally a competitor fit to challenge the ever-growing middle tier of Korean players, although his actual skill has ranged from some of the worst possible to title contention. His recent results, beginning upon his return to Korea, have been nothing besides poor, and he is at risk of falling into irrelevancy as he did in 2011 and 2012. Since the first season of the S2SL started with an unceremonious and crushing defeat at the hands of MyuNgSiK, San has not been able to advance past the first stage in a single tournament in Korea or outside it. His GSL group was a painful pair of close losses to YoDa and Soulkey. While he fought his way to IEM Taipei, he was eliminated, again by Soulkey, and a followup attempt on the world championship was easily denied across two qualifiers by Dark and Cure. Proleague, where San should have shown his best play, was further disappointment as a difficult loss to Dark caused him to get removed from the lineup for two months, only to continue that slide against Proleague’s best upon his return. As San failed to qualify for the S2SL, this is presently his only opportunity other than Proleague to show that his recent routine of losing is only temporary.Sacsri, in stark contrast to San, has been succeeding as a player that has no particular need to compete in all of the best tournaments. After shining brightly in a single Dreamhack, Sacsri slowly transitioned into an online competitor. Most of the latter part of 2014 for him involved steady performances in the Gfinity 1v1 cups, go4sc2 cups, and more recently Olimoleague as well as various one-time tournaments. However, it is difficult for him to walk this path without enduring losses, both online and offline, that cast doubt on his actual skill level. At Dreamhack Winter and HomeStory Cup X, Sacsri tumbled and fell to a cast of players without showing anything special. Across the four GSL and S2SL qualifiers so far in 2015, Sacsri has been haunted by sharp losses to GuMiho, DeParture, Hush and Check, three of which ended his runs perhaps prematurely. This is his opportunity to prove that he can be a legitimate competitor in GSL as well as in the comfort of his home.Predictions
This matchup is historically good for both players. However, even though San seems far worse than Sacsri recently with the former going on a losing streak against Dark and Soulkey, this match is difficult to call. Sacsri’s recent matches primarily involve Rain, Hush, and Arthur, two of which are much weaker, and San’s games in Code S last season looked reasonable, even though he lost both matches. In the end, however, I expect to see Sacsri make his first Code S appearance.
San 2 - 3 Sacsri
