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It is totally obvious that MKP is throwing here, MAYBE if the betting pattern didn't show these kinds of results afterwards it would be different. Normally these games happen from time to time but what is the likelihood that they happen AND the numbers tell us it has to be matchfixing.
1) MKP doesn't do CC first because obviously his team and coaches are telling him wtf MK get your shit together and play safe. If he throws going CC first when his coaches telling him not to is not good for him at all. Players can't just do whatever they want they need to be relatively synced with their team and lets be frank MK has thrown many games recently due to greed.
2) His behavior, his glances and his body languange makes this obvious. Also kespa will know, they will look at the replay and MK will be fucked.
3) People are saying Byul is not involved, he is likely involved. Like the quote below also argues the reaction MKP is doing is a valid build to counter one base baneling all in. If MKP was going to throw the game would he counter the build that Byul might be going for? Also MKP looks so stressed and panicky and does the obvious stupid choice of ignoring creep in his base. If his plan was just to throw the game as he goes by playing badly little by little he would have reacted to the spine and creep. The only explanation that MKP would be so stressed and so effected by scouting cheese was if it was planned and he was supposed to not know. This is an obvious reaction to a plan not going as it is supposed to and a plan could only exist if both players are in on it.
4)On March 25 2015 03:59 RPR_Tempest wrote:
If you'll notice, MarineKing's build (factory before cc and rushing out hellions whilst keeping reapers at home) is actually a fairly perfect response to a one base baneling all-in. We've seen someone (I think it was soO or DRG? Maybe both?) do these vs Terran in the last couple of months. MarineKing sees the lack of natural with gas mining and assumes it to be one base bane bust. Speed could finish any moment now, hence why his reaper is at home, he is looking at his SCVs or fuckin whatever, literally anything else, when his reaper sees the spine.
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This is what MKP wants people to think, of course the game has to "seem logical" and "pro level" to some extent. Doing a reaction that seems to make sense even though it is the wrong one is obviously the plan here.
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On March 25 2015 05:01 Andre wrote:
Just being devil's advocate here, but anyone remember that match in BW when Jaedong had like 100units stuck on his ramp? He could see it on the minimap, I assume he moved his camera over it multiple times as it was near his expo. Yet he still had like 100 units stuck for 1-3 minutes or something. Biggest newbie mistake ever.
It happens to pros too.
I remember that, but Jaedong was also doing a hundred other things and there were a thousand little dots on the map... it wasn't two minutes into the game with basically nothing happening lol.
I do agree with you that some pros choke (including MKP), but this game looks stupidly suspicious. Unfortunately 
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On March 25 2015 05:42 Shuffleblade wrote:It is totally obvious that MKP is throwing here, MAYBE if the betting pattern didn't show these kinds of results afterwards it would be different. Normally these games happen from time to time but what is the likelihood that they happen AND the numbers tell us it has to be matchfixing. 1) MKP doesn't do CC first because obviously his team and coaches are telling him wtf MK get your shit together and play safe. If he throws going CC first when his coaches telling him not to is not good for him at all. Players can't just do whatever they want they need to be relatively synced with their team and lets be frank MK has thrown many games recently due to greed. 2) His behavior, his glances and his body languange makes this obvious. Also kespa will know, they will look at the replay and MK will be fucked. 3) People are saying Byul is not involved, he is likely involved. Like the quote below also argues the reaction MKP is doing is a valid build to counter one base baneling all in. If MKP was going to throw the game would he counter the build that Byul might be going for? Also MKP looks so stressed and panicky and does the obvious stupid choice of ignoring creep in his base. If his plan was just to throw the game as he goes by playing badly little by little he would have reacted to the spine and creep. The only explanation that MKP would be so stressed and so effected by scouting cheese was if it was planned and he was supposed to not know. What would mkp do if he scouted the base and scouted one base banelin all in? Would he get this stressed and ignored the obvious scout? This is an obvious reaction to a plan not going as it is supposed to and a plan could only exist if both players are in on it. 4) Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 03:59 RPR_Tempest wrote:
If you'll notice, MarineKing's build (factory before cc and rushing out hellions whilst keeping reapers at home) is actually a fairly perfect response to a one base baneling all-in. We've seen someone (I think it was soO or DRG? Maybe both?) do these vs Terran in the last couple of months. MarineKing sees the lack of natural with gas mining and assumes it to be one base bane bust. Speed could finish any moment now, hence why his reaper is at home, he is looking at his SCVs or fuckin whatever, literally anything else, when his reaper sees the spine.
. This is what MKP wants people to think, of course the game has to "seem logical" and "pro level" to some extent. Doing a reaction that seems to make sense even though it is the wrong one is obviously the plan here.
I'm impressed by such obviousness. But apart from that, I'll argue your 3) :
MK opened with a build that literally hard counters ByuL's. That means that in order to lose, he HAD to play in a way that would make it look suspicious. That's absurd. If both players are in it AND that MK has to respect his team's orders (open safe), then why didn't ByuL open safe too, and then MK would lose little by little with mismicro and shit?
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I don't usually comment here, just read the threads and keep quite (as reflected in my low post count + reasonably old account).
So first up... MarineKing's PL was 3W 9L for 2015, 1W 3L for TvZ and overall record is 13W 22L.
That reasonably assumes that MarineKing is generally a bad BO1 player in Proleague right?
So from the outset - ByuL was the clear favourite to win this... Even when I saw the matches posted last week - I was like "oh god MK is going to get rekt".
After watching the game... All I can say is MarineKing played so characteristically MarineKing like (as he usually does if he's on tilt - and don't forget MarineKing's a really emotional player. Could something in RL have happened in the lead up to this game? Is it like the San incident where it is assumed that someone had inside knowledge about his illness?) I think it's plausible and it's reasonable to assume that he actually just had a shocker of a night due to not publicly known circumstances.
Secondly, if there is a syndicate of betters that are betting on PL. With pinnacle's actions thus far - the voiding of bets - what if the a syndicate member placed money on MKP then realised that it wasn't going to pull through so the other members massively placed money on ByuL to Hedge their bets and/or get pinnacle to void the bet completely for a full refund?
Of course we won't know about the above ^ but just some food for thought.
Also if SwoopAE is anywhere on this thread - do you have any info about the line movements for the history of the bets?
Thanks.
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On March 25 2015 05:17 Gwavajuice wrote:
I totally don't by this.
Pinacle use whatever algorithm that suits them, I don't give a flying f*, it's between them and their customers.
Is it the first time MK fails to adapt and looses miserably to cheese? no, it happen a lot even whe he was at his top.
Is it the first time MK goes for ultra greedy build when all lights are red? no, he's the guy that went CC first 90% of time in WoL and would always follow by a third CC after starport.
Has MK been any good since his miraculous hot6x cup run? no, sadly not.
Was the outcome of the game suprising? no, not all, by a huge margin.
Would anyone in right mind put money on MK when he faces one the best ZvT in the world? not really.
This match fixing theory on this particular game is bullshit. I don't say it can't happen, but not today. I mean really, there is gap between throwing a game and making a fool of yourself on TV in front of all your fans...
Marineking, as far as I know, has never thrown this hard before. He's not the sharpest player but this is pretty damn basic. He moves his scv through both golds, he sees the timing of the pool, he sees ByuL mining gas.
At an absolute minimum he should've ruled out an eco cheese (no natural and he's not at either gold..HMMMMM) and expected heavy aggression. Instead he continues with a 3rd CC, no bunkers, and he's clearly trying to avoid the back rocks after the initial scout. Wolf is even puzzled in thinking Marineking is tricking ByuL into thinking he hasn't scouted it. I mean, ffs he's still building the 3rd CC when the creep begins spreading into his base...
My take is:
1. ByuL was definitely not in on it. As Otherworld said, why not just go cc first on the low ground if he knew the proxy was coming?
2. Unfortunately for Marineking, ByuL spun this into a more unusual game where Marineking is not smart enough to disguise the throw.
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On March 25 2015 05:08 The_Red_Viper wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:03 Heartland wrote:
Two things:
One, if anyone can fuck up enough to miss a spine on the minimap it's MK.
Two, if he was throwing vs proxy hatch, why didn't he go cc first? It's a sure way to lose.
I just think it's too dumb to be cheating This argument is ridiculous. "it is too dumb to be cheating" So if it looks like it could be fixed we now use this as proof that it wasn't fixed? How exactly does this logic work?
There's some logic behind that. But I don't think it really applies here. If a game looks incredibly stupid, you might think that a matchfixer is actually less likely to do something that stupid, because it would raise suspicion. Instead, the player could have just found out something terrible, and just had horrible anxiety or something. I dunno.
MarineKing though, he looked like someone who had zero experience matchfixing a big stage, and he happened to be against a wonky build like Byul's, and ended up just doing a totally shitty throw. But, who knows. Even if it looks incredibly suspicious, one should never claim certainty. It's still possible for the 0.00001% to happen.
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You guys are over analyzing the game. The real evidence lies in the betting line move. That was uber suspicious.
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Lorning
Belgica34432 Posts
Please don't make MKP a criminal until there's solid proof.
He's done worse shit than this
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On March 25 2015 05:49 c0ldfusion wrote:
You guys are over analyzing the game. The real evidence lies in the betting line move. That was uber suspicious.
Betting lines is no evidence.
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I don't understand TvZ meta, but how can you make 3 cc after scout no hatch? MKP didn't even scout the map looking for the obvious proxy hatch.
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Why would Byul vs MKP need to be fixed so that Byul wins? It should be the other way around.
I'm inclined to believe more in MKP's incompetency. Let's not jump the gun because match fixing is a very serious allegation.
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On March 25 2015 05:46 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:42 Shuffleblade wrote:It is totally obvious that MKP is throwing here, MAYBE if the betting pattern didn't show these kinds of results afterwards it would be different. Normally these games happen from time to time but what is the likelihood that they happen AND the numbers tell us it has to be matchfixing. 1) MKP doesn't do CC first because obviously his team and coaches are telling him wtf MK get your shit together and play safe. If he throws going CC first when his coaches telling him not to is not good for him at all. Players can't just do whatever they want they need to be relatively synced with their team and lets be frank MK has thrown many games recently due to greed. 2) His behavior, his glances and his body languange makes this obvious. Also kespa will know, they will look at the replay and MK will be fucked. 3) People are saying Byul is not involved, he is likely involved. Like the quote below also argues the reaction MKP is doing is a valid build to counter one base baneling all in. If MKP was going to throw the game would he counter the build that Byul might be going for? Also MKP looks so stressed and panicky and does the obvious stupid choice of ignoring creep in his base. If his plan was just to throw the game as he goes by playing badly little by little he would have reacted to the spine and creep. The only explanation that MKP would be so stressed and so effected by scouting cheese was if it was planned and he was supposed to not know. What would mkp do if he scouted the base and scouted one base banelin all in? Would he get this stressed and ignored the obvious scout? This is an obvious reaction to a plan not going as it is supposed to and a plan could only exist if both players are in on it. 4) On March 25 2015 03:59 RPR_Tempest wrote:
If you'll notice, MarineKing's build (factory before cc and rushing out hellions whilst keeping reapers at home) is actually a fairly perfect response to a one base baneling all-in. We've seen someone (I think it was soO or DRG? Maybe both?) do these vs Terran in the last couple of months. MarineKing sees the lack of natural with gas mining and assumes it to be one base bane bust. Speed could finish any moment now, hence why his reaper is at home, he is looking at his SCVs or fuckin whatever, literally anything else, when his reaper sees the spine.
. This is what MKP wants people to think, of course the game has to "seem logical" and "pro level" to some extent. Doing a reaction that seems to make sense even though it is the wrong one is obviously the plan here. I'm impressed by such obviousness. But apart from that, I'll argue your 3) : MK opened with a build that literally hard counters ByuL's. That means that in order to lose, he HAD to play in a way that would make it look suspicious. That's absurd. If both players are in it AND that MK has to respect his team's orders (open safe), then why didn't ByuL open safe too, and then MK would lose little by little with mismicro and shit?
Well I have to concede your point, after thinking about it some more I suppose it makes sense what you are saying.
I take back what I said about Byul, he's likely not involved just like everyone else is arguing =P
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On March 25 2015 05:52 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:49 c0ldfusion wrote:
You guys are over analyzing the game. The real evidence lies in the betting line move. That was uber suspicious. Betting lines is no evidence.
Why?
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On March 25 2015 04:24 digmouse wrote:
Damn... Where is the Richard Lewis report on these things we were supposed to see?
It will never be posted on the Internet. We will always be waiting. We're still waiting for the San vs Dark game.
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On March 25 2015 05:55 Tiaraju9 wrote:
I don't understand TvZ meta, but how can you make 3 cc after scout no hatch? MKP didn't even scout the map looking for the obvious proxy hatch.
The one non-sinister explanation is that he just thought of some eco-cheese and wanted to out-do his oponent. But I think I recall him scouting the gold bases...
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Oh great, obvious match fixing and KeSPA isn't doing anything about it....MarineKing looked so angry after losing too...
Stop KILLING ESPORTS you Money Hungry match fixers!!!
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On March 25 2015 05:55 Tiaraju9 wrote:
I don't understand TvZ meta, but how can you make 3 cc after scout no hatch? MKP didn't even scout the map looking for the obvious proxy hatch.
Because he's MarineKing.
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On March 25 2015 05:58 SixStrings wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:55 Tiaraju9 wrote:
I don't understand TvZ meta, but how can you make 3 cc after scout no hatch? MKP didn't even scout the map looking for the obvious proxy hatch. The one non-sinister explanation is that he just thought of some eco-cheese and wanted to out-do his oponent. But I think I recall him scouting the gold bases...
He passes through the first gold on a normal scout @ 3:35
Then he passes through the second gold on his way back @4:22
In addition, @4:31 is when he first gets the yellow dot. Notice the movements of the reapers thereafter. He's avoiding the rocks.
Wolf and Moonglade become noticeably confused as to why he's not focusing the spine down.
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On March 25 2015 05:58 SixStrings wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:55 Tiaraju9 wrote:
I don't understand TvZ meta, but how can you make 3 cc after scout no hatch? MKP didn't even scout the map looking for the obvious proxy hatch. The one non-sinister explanation is that he just thought of some eco-cheese and wanted to out-do his oponent. But I think I recall him scouting the gold bases...
He brings the SCV home after see no hatch. He did scout one of the two gold bases, but that because the gold base is in the way of his main base. He did not scout the second base or look around in the map with the SCV or the reaper.
I think this is more telling that the lack of minimap awareness.
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EPT
