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This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. He's completely based on indications.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. I obviously can't read odds.
This is as strong evidence as you get without either MKP admitting guilt or the matchfixers telling it them selves. People have been executed for less.
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For me, MKPs face at 5:08 gives it away, after the Spine appears on his map. That's the face of someone who realizes he is neck-deep in poop.
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If MK was guessing all-in, then it means what ? That he believed that Byul was holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame ? Or it means that MK knowledge of the game is that poor not to understand that something is very fishy when he scooted no hatch and gas timing ?
I hope for the latter of course, but it makes me quite sad also actually.
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The thing that seals the deal for me is when the creep is in his base with vision of it for a good 5-8 seconds before he even moves his reapers.
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On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:
So, we have two scenarios, aye?
1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check.
I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo.
2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour.
Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought.
I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter.
tl;dr
don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust.
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This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. Show nested quote +LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Show nested quote +Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life.
Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof
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On March 25 2015 06:32 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:So, we have two scenarios, aye? 1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check. I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo. 2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour. Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought. I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter. tl;dr don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust. ____ https://twitter.com/SwoopAE/status/580370332600532992This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life. Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof
Swoopae is imo the best poster on TL in regards to matchfixing.
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On March 25 2015 06:27 Hider wrote:
>
This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. He's completely based on indications.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. I obviously can't read odds.
This is as strong evidence as you get without either MKP admitting guilt or the matchfixers telling it them selves. People have been executed for less.
No, this is an indication, which is unequal to a proof.
On March 25 2015 06:33 Jacenoob wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:32 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:So, we have two scenarios, aye? 1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check. I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo. 2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour. Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought. I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter. tl;dr don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust. ____ https://twitter.com/SwoopAE/status/580370332600532992This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life. Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof Swoopae is imo the best poster on TL in regards to matchfixing.
I absolutely like the way he's trying to argue, and I absolutely dislike that he's implying that guys are in fact matchfixing. He's trying to be witness and judge in one person.
Please stay on topic though. What I like or dislike about SwoopAE should not be brought up here, and it was a mistake of me to start that in the first place. I really want to remind you guys of "in dubio pro reo".
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On March 25 2015 06:13 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:57 The_Red_Viper wrote:On March 25 2015 05:52 OtherWorld wrote:On March 25 2015 05:49 c0ldfusion wrote:
You guys are over analyzing the game. The real evidence lies in the betting line move. That was uber suspicious. Betting lines is no evidence. Why? Because : -It is based on Pinnacle's appreciation of the situation, and the quality of their services. For all we know, had they decided not to void bets because someone in charge would have gone "fuck it, I ain't going to void this one", this thread wouldn't even exist in the first place. Maybe their algorithm is flawed as fuck. Maybe they recently changed their treshold for what they consider "suspicious" without us knowing, which means that other games went under the radar undetected. Anything can be possible, and something that is based on a betting site's own appreciation of the situation is NOT evidence alone, not about the game at least. -It shows nothing else than the fact that bets were strange. It doesn't concern the game in itself. Thus it is evidence about the bets, but not about the game. -It isn't nowhere near enough to accuse someone of something as important as match-fixing. Accusing MK of match fixing solely based on betting lines is like accusing someone of murder because he entered a house where a dead body was found. It. just. doesn't. compute.
1. So you are saying pinnacle, a site which is pretty big for betting is just wrong? They void bets just like they want to, why exactly?
2. Yes it shows that bets were strange. They were so strange (Byul is a 90% favorite) that pinnacle decided to void the bet.
They have thousands and thousands of betting lines to base this decision on. These lines are strange cause they highly imply someone had informations about the match. Is it possible that someone just yolod all his money on Byul cause he doesn't give a fuck? Maybe (but probably not, i think it was said that ONE account alone simply can't move the line this much). But anything is possible in theory, that doesn't mean it is likely.
3. I don't think your analogy is a good one. Everybody knows that the person entering the house doesn't need to be the murderer. There are a lot of likely explanations in this case. What is a likely explanation for betting lines like this (remember, pinnacle is a stable site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinnacle_Sports) which doesn't include some form of information?
Sry but your dire need to search for other (very unlikely) options just. doesn't. compute
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people see what they want to see
hopefully this doesn't ruin mkp's life if he is innocent
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Weird betting patterns does not mean match fixing. Individuals with insider information can also manipulate the betting line but it does not mean the players are involved. Stop accusing the players without actual proof.
That being said. MKP made several key mistakes that any pro player should NOT make. If I were the coach, i would not field him until whatever the problem is resolved.
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On March 25 2015 06:34 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:27 Hider wrote:
>
This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. He's completely based on indications.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. I obviously can't read odds.
This is as strong evidence as you get without either MKP admitting guilt or the matchfixers telling it them selves. People have been executed for less. No, this is an indication, which is unequal to a proof. Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:33 Jacenoob wrote:On March 25 2015 06:32 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:So, we have two scenarios, aye? 1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check. I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo. 2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour. Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought. I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter. tl;dr don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust. ____ https://twitter.com/SwoopAE/status/580370332600532992This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life. Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof Swoopae is imo the best poster on TL in regards to matchfixing. I absolutely like the way he's trying to argue, and I absolutely dislike that he's implying that guys are in fact matchfixing. He's trying to be witness and judge in one person. Please stay on topic though. What I like or dislike about SwoopAE should not be brought up here, and it was a mistake of me to start that in the first place. I really want to remind you guys of "in dubio pro reo".
So you do think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof then? As said earlier; At least from his perspective the suspicious lines movements are proof and again, he gave us a lot of insight in this matter overall
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On March 25 2015 06:41 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:34 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:27 Hider wrote:
>
This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. He's completely based on indications.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. I obviously can't read odds.
This is as strong evidence as you get without either MKP admitting guilt or the matchfixers telling it them selves. People have been executed for less. No, this is an indication, which is unequal to a proof. On March 25 2015 06:33 Jacenoob wrote:On March 25 2015 06:32 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:So, we have two scenarios, aye? 1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check. I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo. 2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour. Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought. I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter. tl;dr don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust. ____ https://twitter.com/SwoopAE/status/580370332600532992This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life. Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof Swoopae is imo the best poster on TL in regards to matchfixing. I absolutely like the way he's trying to argue, and I absolutely dislike that he's implying that guys are in fact matchfixing. He's trying to be witness and judge in one person. Please stay on topic though. What I like or dislike about SwoopAE should not be brought up here, and it was a mistake of me to start that in the first place. I really want to remind you guys of "in dubio pro reo". So you do think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof then? As said earlier; At least from his perspective the suspicious lines movements are proof and again, he gave us a lot of insight in this matter overall
We can continue discussing that on PM, but I really don't want to derail the thread. As I said, I shouldn't have brought it up in first place.
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On March 25 2015 05:56 Deathstar wrote:
Why would Byul vs MKP need to be fixed so that Byul wins? It should be the other way around.
I'm inclined to believe more in MKP's incompetency. Let's not jump the gun because match fixing is a very serious allegation.
To win at gambling you have to control the odds. Either the bookmaker makes a mistake and you can bet on the favorable side (like if they had Byul - MK at even money, you bet on Byul and make money).
Or you fix the match if you are a criminal. If you fix the match you make money no ands ifs of buts. So the vast majority of the time you actually pay the underdog to throw (Solar was offered money to throw against Vortix remember and iirc Solar was not the favorite in that match). It's less suspicious to everyone watching and the underdog has more incentive to take your money anyways.
Of course, criminals can and do get greedy and want to make more money by paying off the favorite. But then you end up with Jake LaMotta literally holding up his opponent because he's so bad he can't win a rigged boxing match (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_LaMotta#LaMotta_vs._Fox) and everyone goes to jail.
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On March 25 2015 06:46 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 06:41 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 06:34 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:27 Hider wrote:
>
This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. He's completely based on indications.
Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. I obviously can't read odds.
This is as strong evidence as you get without either MKP admitting guilt or the matchfixers telling it them selves. People have been executed for less. No, this is an indication, which is unequal to a proof. On March 25 2015 06:33 Jacenoob wrote:On March 25 2015 06:32 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 06:22 boxerfred wrote:On March 25 2015 06:19 Saechiis wrote:On March 25 2015 06:10 boxerfred wrote:So, we have two scenarios, aye? 1. MK is guilty. He saw the spine on the minimap. Since he wants to lose (assuming Byul is not involved), he's kinda glad that Byul gives him an easy way to throw by simply ignoring the fact that he saw that. Easiest proof for that would be the first person view of the replay, MKP might've done an instinctive check. I don't see any other way to legitimately prove that MK saw the spine. You guys can bring up more snippets, but as long as there is no rock solid proof, it's in no way (neither morally nor legally) allowed to judge and potentially ruin MK's career. In dubio pro reo. 2. MK is innocent. Given that he SCV scouted, he knew that Byul would allin him. His SCV checked the gold bases. This is the first point where it gets interesting: if MK uses the minimap to confirm that no gold base has been taken, he should see the spine. If he checks by camera (assuming he grouped the scout scv which is likely), he wouldn't check the minimap. Then, remember: many pros go in early game for apm spams. Spamming control groups, spamming camera positions is a normal thing. While doing so, one might actually not check the minimap. The third thing to check would be which colours MK used. Did he use the "friendly green, hostile red"-thing, or did he have original colours turned on? Yellow is much harder to see for the eye, while red is a signal colour. Assuming MK really missed the spine building, I think that he thought a bust was coming. He was clearly not expecting roaches (he wouldn't have rushed hellions else) but a baneling bust, and relied on his fast hellions to hold. The fact that Byul wouldn't have been able to kill him without queens and spines supports that thought. I even think he would've held a one base bust with 3cc and would've been miles ahead thereafter. tl;dr don't judge him without any proof, in dubio pro reo. two possibilities: a) guilty, b) he mistakenly took a proxy hatch he did not see for a one base baneling bust. ____ https://twitter.com/SwoopAE/status/580370332600532992This guy should shut up. Accusations are one thing, not having proof is another thing. Fun fact: in that twitter screenshot, the odds are in favor of ST-Yoe vs. SKT1. Lol. Come on dude, he scouted the timing of the gas and the spawning pool, the only explanations for them to be timed that way is: A. there is a hatch somewhere on the map, yet not on the gold or the natural as his scv scouts those positions. This thought process leads to proxy hatch agression or at the very least suspicion to scout with your reapers (remember the pool is not even done as his reaper finishes, he can safely scout the map without threat of a runby or speedlings). B. Byul is randomly holding onto 300 minerals as a mindgame. I'm not saying he's innocent. I'm saying we have no proof for any scenario, so please don't light the fires and don't pull out the pitchforks yet. I do think though that a strong point for MK guessing the baneling allin is that he keeps his reapers at home, knowing that speed will finish any second. That would imply that he thinks he has enough time to get hellions out, the reasoning behind his third cc. LOL you tell him to shut up and you cant even read odds properly.. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league.... I think most gamblers would even take a foreign terran at 8 to 1 in a BO1 against anyone in prologue . Yeah, because I can actually admit that I am wrong, while this guy just goes full pitchfork by tweeting a picture instead of giving a full reasoning. He seemingly is not even trying to gather proof, he has his opinion, says "this is the truth now act" and that's it. Fun fact, there is no one player in pro league that should be 8 to 1 favorite over another player in pro league. I would take a one to eight quote if Aphrodite was facing Life. Are you talking about SwoopAE? Because he gave a lot of info about the earlier cases in the first thread. I don't think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof Swoopae is imo the best poster on TL in regards to matchfixing. I absolutely like the way he's trying to argue, and I absolutely dislike that he's implying that guys are in fact matchfixing. He's trying to be witness and judge in one person. Please stay on topic though. What I like or dislike about SwoopAE should not be brought up here, and it was a mistake of me to start that in the first place. I really want to remind you guys of "in dubio pro reo". So you do think it's fair to say he's not even trying to gather proof then? As said earlier; At least from his perspective the suspicious lines movements are proof and again, he gave us a lot of insight in this matter overall We can continue discussing that on PM, but I really don't want to derail the thread. As I said, I shouldn't have brought it up in first place.
Meh, I'm good. I was just annoyed that you didn't answer my question I guess
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It would have been a lot better for everyone if the San vs Dark game, legit or not, had scared matchfixers off of StarCraft.
If Blizzard has to devote resources to investigating this mess, it won't be the next World of WarCraft expansion that suffers because money had to be spent elsewhere, it'll be LOTV or tournament support or what have you.
I honestly don't even know what outcome to hope for now. That this quietly goes away and never happens again? Even if it quiets down, now there's absolutely no reason to remain optimistic that it's not happening still. That Blizzard tries to do something about it and SC2 funds get slashed? That KeSPA tries to do something about it and potentially implodes Korean StarCraft?
As fans, we're fucked regardless. I'm not convinced that MKP was fixing - although if I were a betting man, I'd bet that he was - but this is far too suspicious to simply let slide. Far, far too suspicious.
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Germany3128 Posts
I'm a noob in terms to betting.
Can someone explain to me why this 1:8 rates for a MK win are evidence? Shouldn't it be the other way round in these scenarios, that the player with the high chance of winning fixes his match so he( or whoever is behind this) gets more money by betting on the 'underdog'?
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This is terrible! I'm trying to understand how this is not match fixing.
I'd like to start off that I think it's out of the question that he did not see the spine crawler on the mini map. Running with that assumption, he didn't attack the spine with the reaper while it was being built, no bunker either and instead decides to pop a third CC? Give me a break.
But what really solidifies the accusation is the 8:1 odds against Marineking. This is no simple coincidence.
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On March 25 2015 07:07 TheNewEra wrote:
I'm a noob in terms to betting.
Can someone explain to me why this 1:8 rates for a MK win are evidence? Shouldn't it be the other way round in these scenarios, that the player with the high chance of winning fixes his match so he( or whoever is behind this) gets more money by betting on the 'underdog'?
The reason the odds are that lopsided is because someone made a big bet on Byul Winning.
They should have been closer prior.
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On March 25 2015 06:29 Jacenoob wrote:
For me, MKPs face at 5:08 gives it away, after the Spine appears on his map. That's the face of someone who realizes he is neck-deep in poop.
You mean 5:45 I think? If not, check it out. I hate to say it but that reactions looks really fake :/
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this is probably the closest we ever get to actual proof of matchfixing. what else do you want? a video where mkp is handed a bunch of stacks of money?
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EPT
