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On March 25 2015 10:15 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 10:05 pure.Wasted wrote:On March 25 2015 10:01 Elentos wrote:On March 25 2015 09:48 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 25 2015 09:25 ETisME wrote:
Knowing there is match fixing in the scene does not imply this match is match fixed. That's very true; we want to look at this game independently, as opposed to poisoning the well. That being said, it seems that quite a few eyebrows are justifiably raised at this particular game, regardless of other fixed matches. I'm going to be perfectly honest, MarineKing not noticing that spine (he had no vision of the creep when he started the 3rd CC and he doesn't use allied colors, the yellow dot doesn't really stand out as much on the map as it should IMO) is about as suspicious as Cure moving out with all his units against Stats after scouting that there's no natural, no in-base tech and not looking for proxies (when it was past the time for both oracles and DTs) or Maru not noticing a nydus in his main for more than 30 seconds at IEM. Sometimes, these things happen. The only thing that makes it suspicious are the betting lines, which cause everyone to go "Matchfixing! Burn the witch!" and which nobody can explain in any other way. 1. It's a lot easier to mistake a Nydus for an Overlord (which Maru knew was floating around his base) than it is to mistake a Creep Tumor, and creep, for nothing, for 3 minutes. Look at the VoD at points where the observer shows MK's vision before that stuff enters the main (e.g. 5:16) and look at the minimap. The creep and spine are barely visually distinct from the parts of the map they are close to. If MK doesn't pay full attention to that, he could potentially have a hard time making it out, and even then, it's possible he didn't bring his camera there to check what it is. It's MarineKing, when he played against Leenock, he got a full squad of marines surrounded and killed early on, didn't stim, didn't send any units there for support, nothing. If it's possible for him to miss that much, I reckon he might miss a yellow dot on white background. As I said, the betting lines are the suspicious thing, not the play itself.
That's not true, it is, obviously, suspicious. It isn't necessarily proof though and it's not impossible that he missed all these clues. But it is very uncommon, even for MK.
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Ok dood, we get it. You posted about this other thing you think had some match fixing going on.
There are many things you can say about this as a player, but even under the assumption there is no match fixing........ I'd love to see the replay... I am honestly not really sure you could have been doing that entire time >.> I posted the same thing in the match thread, it's very... peculiar to say the least.. @_@;;
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On March 25 2015 10:15 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 10:05 pure.Wasted wrote:On March 25 2015 10:01 Elentos wrote:On March 25 2015 09:48 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On March 25 2015 09:25 ETisME wrote:
Knowing there is match fixing in the scene does not imply this match is match fixed. That's very true; we want to look at this game independently, as opposed to poisoning the well. That being said, it seems that quite a few eyebrows are justifiably raised at this particular game, regardless of other fixed matches. I'm going to be perfectly honest, MarineKing not noticing that spine (he had no vision of the creep when he started the 3rd CC and he doesn't use allied colors, the yellow dot doesn't really stand out as much on the map as it should IMO) is about as suspicious as Cure moving out with all his units against Stats after scouting that there's no natural, no in-base tech and not looking for proxies (when it was past the time for both oracles and DTs) or Maru not noticing a nydus in his main for more than 30 seconds at IEM. Sometimes, these things happen. The only thing that makes it suspicious are the betting lines, which cause everyone to go "Matchfixing! Burn the witch!" and which nobody can explain in any other way. 1. It's a lot easier to mistake a Nydus for an Overlord (which Maru knew was floating around his base) than it is to mistake a Creep Tumor, and creep, for nothing, for 3 minutes. Look at the VoD at points where the observer shows MK's vision before that stuff enters the main (e.g. 5:16) and look at the minimap. The creep and spine are barely visually distinct from the parts of the map they are close to. If MK doesn't pay full attention to that, he could potentially have a hard time making it out, and even then, it's possible he didn't bring his camera there to check what it is. It's MarineKing, when he played against Leenock, he got a full squad of marines surrounded and killed early on, didn't stim, didn't send any units there for support, nothing. If it's possible for him to miss that much, I reckon he might miss a yellow dot on white background. As I said, the betting lines are the suspicious thing, not the play itself.
I feel like the MK part of this story is no longer relevant, in light of other developments.
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On March 25 2015 05:03 Heartland wrote:
Two things:
One, if anyone can fuck up enough to miss a spine on the minimap it's MK.
Two, if he was throwing vs proxy hatch, why didn't he go cc first? It's a sure way to lose.
I just think it's too dumb to be cheating
OJ couldn't have killed his wife. He left too much evidence, nobody's that dumb.
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Also I believe there needs to be some sort of third party for situations like this.
It's unfair to simply void the bet and label the game as match fixed, it hurts the players too much and false alert can be very damaging as well.
The process should be:
pause the bet and then get experts to analyze then provide a convincing conclusion within a reasonable time.
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On March 25 2015 10:25 ETisME wrote:
Also I believe there needs to be some sort of third party for situations like this.
It's unfair to simply void the bet and label the game as match fixed, it hurts the players too much and false alert can be very damaging as well.
The process should be:
pause the bet and then get experts to analyze then provide a convincing conclusion within a reasonable time.
I'm sorry to say, but Pinnacle is the most advanced betting medium around for eSports. Them voiding a game is only an iota less damning than KeSPA voiding it -_-
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This looks very suspicious indeed. Doesn't look like this will bode well for MKP
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On March 25 2015 10:25 ETisME wrote:
Also I believe there needs to be some sort of third party for situations like this.
It's unfair to simply void the bet and label the game as match fixed, it hurts the players too much and false alert can be very damaging as well.
The process should be:
pause the bet and then get experts to analyze then provide a convincing conclusion within a reasonable time.
That would be nice but:
On March 25 2015 08:08 Rekrul wrote:
facts:
1. illegal sports betting in korea is much bigger than it was during the BW scandal so there is more $ to be earned from throwing matches, pinnacle is just a small piece of the pie
2. everyone in the korean sc2 scene already knows that fixing is rampant in proleague especially among players who don't make much money and aren't good enough to dominate individual leagues (where it definitely happens sometimes as well)
3. sc2 is already suffering in korea as is, them investigating or going public trying to stop it is not only futile with the given industry dynamics, but would also likely destroy sc2 in korea
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Ingame time 3:45-3:50, marineking doesn't even select his scouting scv. either he doesnt have it in control group or it's in a control group but he's not using it. normally when enemy does something weird you always toggle back and forth from your base and your scouting worker to make sure no workers or units pass by (indicating a proxy of some kind)
besides, having 4 (5?) years of progaming experience you SHOULD know simple zerg gas timings. he scouted gas so there's no speedling threat until ~6 minute but he didn't even bother scouting around for reaper. could've checked third, rocks, even your forth, watchtowers, literally anything. but he just sits at his base and doesn't make bunker which is pretty mkp-ish but still.....
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On March 25 2015 10:25 ETisME wrote:
Also I believe there needs to be some sort of third party for situations like this.
It's unfair to simply void the bet and label the game as match fixed, it hurts the players too much and false alert can be very damaging as well.
The process should be:
pause the bet and then get experts to analyze then provide a convincing conclusion within a reasonable time.
Why? I understand, from our point of view, why, but what benefit does doing all of that have for Pinnacle? It would cost money (changing software, hiring said experts if they exist, covering liability from Pinnacle's customers (aka, people placing bets) that may sue if they believe said experts are wrong, etc) and time that Pinnacle may not want to invest.
This kind of dark cloud hits the competitive gamers and the tournaments hard, but to Pinnacle? They lost nothing (or very little) in voiding the bets, they don't make accusations which could be considered defamatory, and they fall back on the mathematics.
This is like asking a casino to stop a table game, call in experts to review video, and make a decision on whether or not card counting is going on. It won't happen - they'll just ask any suspected gamblers to leave the premises. (Somewhat flawed, I know - casinos constantly are reviewing video and their decision making is somewhat more nuanced. But they aren't going to do more than they have to to protect their own interests.)
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On March 25 2015 10:24 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 05:03 Heartland wrote:
Two things:
One, if anyone can fuck up enough to miss a spine on the minimap it's MK.
Two, if he was throwing vs proxy hatch, why didn't he go cc first? It's a sure way to lose.
I just think it's too dumb to be cheating OJ couldn't have killed his wife. He left too much evidence, nobody's that dumb.
MKP didn't cry after his loss, so he must have known ahead of time that he was going to lose and mentally prepared himself.
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This could be extremely stupid and irrelevant but is marineking wearing contacts? I have seen him wear glasses before when playing and I do not play with my glasses or contacts on. I have had multiple games where I have had an overlord on top of a proxy gate in my base and never reacted to it because of being near sighted and continued to 3 hatch before pool.
Have not seen the game yet but will watch it now and see.
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On March 25 2015 09:46 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 09:43 ZenithM wrote:
Just a question though. If I wanted to destroy the pro-scene, all I would need is a couple of 10,000 dollars, and place a few big bets on some games which I'm pretty sure will be one-sided?
I mean, the fact that MK usually loses in horrible ways was just a nice bonus here. I guess but you don't actually believe that's what's going on here!?
It could always be the one guy that wants to get attention by uncovering evil schemes, but since there are non the person starts to create them. Don't forget you don't lose anything if a bet is being voided.
When I watch this match it looks like typical Marine King being blind ... he has overlooked bigger stuff then this.
But I want that article or any research done at a more professional level. Otherwise it will always just look to me like someone tries to start a witchhunt.
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On March 25 2015 10:44 duckk wrote:
This could be extremely stupid and irrelevant but is marineking wearing contacts? I have seen him wear glasses before when playing and I do not play with my glasses or contacts on. I have had multiple games where I have had an overlord on top of a proxy gate in my base and never reacted to it because of being near sighted and continued to 3 hatch before pool.
Have not seen the game yet but will watch it now and see.
His glasses are for fashion, not prescription.
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On March 25 2015 10:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 10:24 LightSpectra wrote:On March 25 2015 05:03 Heartland wrote:
Two things:
One, if anyone can fuck up enough to miss a spine on the minimap it's MK.
Two, if he was throwing vs proxy hatch, why didn't he go cc first? It's a sure way to lose.
I just think it's too dumb to be cheating OJ couldn't have killed his wife. He left too much evidence, nobody's that dumb. MKP didn't cry after his loss, so he must have known ahead of time that he was going to lose and mentally prepared himself.
case fucking closed.
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On March 25 2015 10:44 duckk wrote:
This could be extremely stupid and irrelevant but is marineking wearing contacts? I have seen him wear glasses before when playing and I do not play with my glasses or contacts on. I have had multiple games where I have had an overlord on top of a proxy gate in my base and never reacted to it because of being near sighted and continued to 3 hatch before pool.
Have not seen the game yet but will watch it now and see.
I doubt that a progamer would purposely play a pro game with such a handicap.
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On March 25 2015 10:44 duckk wrote:
This could be extremely stupid and irrelevant but is marineking wearing contacts? I have seen him wear glasses before when playing and I do not play with my glasses or contacts on. I have had multiple games where I have had an overlord on top of a proxy gate in my base and never reacted to it because of being near sighted and continued to 3 hatch before pool.
Have not seen the game yet but will watch it now and see.
He left them on the orchestra drum at Iron Squid II.
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I'm just looking at this vid from a casual observer, definitely no expert on Progamers or what they go through. I'll try not to let what I've read in this thread bias me. Timestamps are from the video itself, not game time
3:50 - MK's scout reaches Byul's base, BARELY missing the second drone leaving
4:05 - MK sees the late pool, single gas and clearly reacts with a "WTF?" reaction, not saying he can't have acted but he's clearly trying to figure out
4:25 - The scout passes the gold on the way home and sees nothing, MK may not have been looking at the time to be fair but being progamer, that's highly unlikely
4.33 - The reaper moves for the SCV building the factory and sees the spine right at the corner of vision, it should be on his minimap as a red dot (Moonglade tells us later in vid that he was seeing it as red on MK's vision)
4:41 - MK APPEARS to look at the minimap, without FPV it's impossible to tell what he's looking at but it seems like he's looking where the map should be to me. The reapers start to move out then MK changes his mind, but they seem to be in the rally spot for a ling bane rush
5:02: MK rolls his head and takes a deep breath, is he thinking about what he's actually about to do (If he is indeed guilty) or is he just simply genuinely unsure? He adds the reactor to his factory
5:23 - MK APPEARS to look at the minimap AGAIN. Again it's impossible to tell and I'm only speculating but his look appears to be confusion more than anything sinister
5:27 - Creep enters the base and MK starts the fateful 3rd CC, at this point it looks like MK is glancing at his keyboard to group units and not the map so there's every possibility he just never saw it
5:46 - The reaper comes up and sees the creep and MK's reaction looks to be a genuine "WTF?". He might be a very good actor I grant that but he does genuinely look shocked.
And from there it's academic
Do I think given the evidence of the betting it looks suspicious? No doubt.
Do I think a pro gamer like MK SHOULD have seen the spine and dealt with it? Absolutely
Do I think he did and chose to ignore it because of matchfixing? Honestly? No. I just don't buy he's that good an actor and he looks genuinely shocked when he realises his error.
There has to be some other explanation, something going on in the background of his life that's distracting him, which raises the question. Why did MVP field him in the first place?
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Are there any plausible answers to these questions other than match fixing?
Why did MKP's chances of winning go from ~40% to ~5%? What happened to make everyone know MKP was going to lose and put money on it?
Did it come out that MKP had a sore wrist or something? Or that ByuL had a special build he was really confident in? Even so that kind of a move seems extreme, but at least I'd give him some benefit of the doubt.
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I think a red dot on the map can't be overlooked (if you play with allied colors), but the yellow one can certainly pass off as well, about anything, like a resource patch or something. Obviously it shouldn't be there, but when you glance for half a second at the map the yellow dot doesn't jump to your face.
I seem to recall on streams that MarineKing doesn't play with allied colors. Just to say that it's not impossible that he really missed it. I'm more concerned about how MarineKing didn't scout at all where the hatch was after scouting the late pool. I mean, it's his job as a "proud" progamer (as he likes to remind us in his facebook post :D) to know those kind of basic timings I would think.
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EPT
