EPTLadder League Distribution Update - March 5 - Page 4
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life617
United States25 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12224 Posts
On March 08 2015 03:19 korona wrote: Second last time. Updates in May 2014 happened pretty much immediately (unless there were some shadow changes some days earlier that Blizzard did not publish). But in January 2014 the actual / noticeable offset changes happened two days after patch 2.1. That time Blizzard claimed that they had made the changes already when patch 2.1 was launched. Back then I had full MMR tool data available (+ Blizzard's web profiles were not malfunctioning so most (pretty much all) the data was good). There was no indication that offsets had been changed. But two days later when the actual changes happened they were pretty much immediately noticeable both in MMR tool data and at nios.kr. This time I do not have the MMR tool data as its server is unavailable. But there has been no trend changes regarding nios.kr data in past few days. But as Blizzard keeps in their story that the changes were made, then surely some changes have been made. But could the changes ('phase 1') be something else than offset / threshold changes (miscommunication from Blizzard / miscommunication between community managers and the developers)? Potentially something that has been done to fine-tune/confirm the planned offset/threshold values and the actual change ('phase 2') would happen in near future? One can only speculate as there has been no visible effects regarding the recent change and still Blizzard claims the changes were done. Yeah, that's right. I decided to go back and search around the Jan 24 2014 (thanks for mentioning the dates in the MMR tool thread by the way, that was quite helpful as I had forgotten the exact dates) update period and made a post about what I found on the Bnet forum. This was what I posted: Take a look at how the Jan 2014 (Patch 2.1) league readjustment played out: Patch 2.1 launches on 1/21/2014, league adjustments are included as part of the deployment package: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11364066315#1 We wait 4 months for a fix to ladder distribution, and it doesn't even work. Kaivax says they're seeing a big uptick in promotions on their end on 1/21/2014: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11354455348?page=5#84 I just wanted to stop back in here and let you know that we’ve been watching the data roll in this afternoon, and so far, so good. We’ve seen a big uptick in promotions, and every player that we’ve spot-checked (including at least one who posted in this thread) has been statistically affected as expected. Kaivax says they're still compiling data on 1/22/2014: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11354455348?page=16#303 Just wanted to check in here and confirm for you: we've been closely monitoring the ladders today, and will continue to tomorrow. At this time, we haven't made any ladder adjustments post-patch in any region. On 1/23/2014, Spyrian says the effects haven't been as dramatic as they anticipated so they're going to keep monitoring: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11423622282#1 I’m stopping in to let all of you know that we definitely hear your concerns about ladder league distribution following Patch 2.1. We’ve been monitoring league movement closely and while we’ve definitely seen some progress, the league boundary changes we made with the patch aren’t producing the results we’re after just yet. On 1/24/2014 a second adjustment was made, resulting in celebratory threads like these: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11422462246#1 Hundreds upon hundreds of people are being promoted as we speak. Everything seems to be moving along, cheers! Every minute a refresh to Nios shows Bronze and Silver dropping drastically and other leagues gaining numbers. Now would be a good time to ladder  http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11424912514#1 Hell, it's about time. Ladder has been fixed, Bronze and Silver are shrinking finally as you can see here: http://nios.kr/sc2/global/1v1/hots/ So I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the conclusion that the sky is falling and the ladder is doomed. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On March 08 2015 06:47 Excalibur_Z wrote: Yeah, that's right. I decided to go back and search around the Jan 24 2014 (thanks for mentioning the dates in the MMR tool thread by the way, that was quite helpful as I had forgotten the exact dates) update period and made a post about what I found on the Bnet forum. This was what I posted: Take a look at how the Jan 2014 (Patch 2.1) league readjustment played out: + Show Spoiler + Patch 2.1 launches on 1/21/2014, league adjustments are included as part of the deployment package: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11364066315#1 We wait 4 months for a fix to ladder distribution, and it doesn't even work. Kaivax says they're seeing a big uptick in promotions on their end on 1/21/2014: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11354455348?page=5#84 I just wanted to stop back in here and let you know that we’ve been watching the data roll in this afternoon, and so far, so good. We’ve seen a big uptick in promotions, and every player that we’ve spot-checked (including at least one who posted in this thread) has been statistically affected as expected. Kaivax says they're still compiling data on 1/22/2014: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11354455348?page=16#303 Just wanted to check in here and confirm for you: we've been closely monitoring the ladders today, and will continue to tomorrow. At this time, we haven't made any ladder adjustments post-patch in any region. On 1/23/2014, Spyrian says the effects haven't been as dramatic as they anticipated so they're going to keep monitoring: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11423622282#1 I’m stopping in to let all of you know that we definitely hear your concerns about ladder league distribution following Patch 2.1. We’ve been monitoring league movement closely and while we’ve definitely seen some progress, the league boundary changes we made with the patch aren’t producing the results we’re after just yet. On 1/24/2014 a second adjustment was made, resulting in celebratory threads like these: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11422462246#1 Hundreds upon hundreds of people are being promoted as we speak. Everything seems to be moving along, cheers! Every minute a refresh to Nios shows Bronze and Silver dropping drastically and other leagues gaining numbers. Now would be a good time to ladder http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11424912514#1 Hell, it's about time. Ladder has been fixed, Bronze and Silver are shrinking finally as you can see here: http://nios.kr/sc2/global/1v1/hots/ So I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the conclusion that the sky is falling and the ladder is doomed. Indeed the sky is not falling. And even if they make more noticeable threshold changes in near future, it is worth for everyone to remember what you wrote on Bnet forums that this only changes the thresholds but does not fix the underlying issue (that is addressed next season e.g. with removal of MMR decay. But will it be enough in the long run): http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/16542954341?page=17#330 Thought I still remember when I checked several MMR tool users who were promoted between patch 2.1 and the noticeable changes that happened two days later (slight differences regarding the dates are due different timezones). In every case I came to conclusion that that player should have been promoted with the earlier offsets/thresholds around the same time too. Of course there was likely small inaccuracies in the results as the tool cannot calculate MMR from every game based on the available data (thus estimates based on typical average changes are sometimes used) . Of course it could also be that the initial changes back then were potentially very small and thus almost unnoticeable. | ||
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TurboMaN
Germany925 Posts
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TedBurtle
Belarus201 Posts
On March 08 2015 05:37 KeksX wrote: The thing is that we're not talking about subtle changes here. Taking EU as an example: Of roughly 100k players, 40k players are in gold when it should really be 32k. So 8k players are in the wrong league. For silver, thats 6k and for Platin it's 7k. For Diamond it's 10k, for masters it's 1k. So we have almost 35k players in the wrong leagues, yet we saw a change of a couple hundred at best. Thats only for EU. In reallity, it doesn't matter. I'm high diamond, i play vs Dia/ML,sometime plat's that wait promotion. And what really matters, that i play vs players that i can win...Main word is "CAN", i don't win everytime, they can win too, and this is main thing...No matter how many players called "PLAT/ML" if you got correct enemy's that you can compete. | ||
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InfCereal
Canada1759 Posts
On March 08 2015 17:09 TedBurtle wrote: In reallity, it doesn't matter. I'm high diamond, i play vs Dia/ML,sometime plat's that wait promotion. And what really matters, that i play vs players that i can win...Main word is "CAN", i don't win everytime, they can win too, and this is main thing...No matter how many players called "PLAT/ML" if you got correct enemy's that you can compete. Most people play this game for a sense of improvement. If you're playing a game where all measure of progress is removed, you've lost the reason to play. Compound the fact that Starcraft II is obnoxiously frustrating to play, and you're potentially looking at a drop in the player base. I know I don't feel like playing. I know logically I'm improving, but with no proof of that for the past 3-4 seasons, you don't feel like trying anymore. | ||
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KeksX
Germany3634 Posts
On March 08 2015 17:09 TedBurtle wrote: In reallity, it doesn't matter. I'm high diamond, i play vs Dia/ML,sometime plat's that wait promotion. And what really matters, that i play vs players that i can win...Main word is "CAN", i don't win everytime, they can win too, and this is main thing...No matter how many players called "PLAT/ML" if you got correct enemy's that you can compete. I addressed this point earlier On March 08 2015 05:29 KeksX wrote: I mean, for me personally it doesn't really matter. Whether I play high diamonds or low/mid masters doesn't make a difference, but in the german community that got a huge influx due to RocketbeansTV, there are a lot of frustrating newbies in gold playing people that are easily platin and above. So it's kinda annoying having to explain this weird MMR/league scenario  | ||
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justnny
United States171 Posts
On March 08 2015 23:27 InfCereal wrote: Most people play this game for a sense of improvement. If you're playing a game where all measure of progress is removed, you've lost the reason to play. Compound the fact that Starcraft II is obnoxiously frustrating to play, and you're potentially looking at a drop in the player base. I know I don't feel like playing. I know logically I'm improving, but with no proof of that for the past 3-4 seasons, you don't feel like trying anymore. I know this is somewhat off-topic, but how does one measure improvement? If proof is a league promotion, I have had no improvement with my past 3 years of Diamond league. When I started in Bronze, sure, climbing up to Diamond was "proof". Today, though, we need something else. Perhaps if MMR was visible it might help. I used the MMR Tool for years and it only proved that MMR is heavily influenced by streaks and slumps. In fact, I'd argue that the leagues make the MMR volatility worse since a losing streak yields an uglier badge. As the game ages and people quit, the lower leagues will eventually fill with quality players that may once have been ranked in much higher leagues. In that case, knowing I was a 1200 MMR in Diamond then, and knowing I am a 1200 MMR Bronze now might smooth over the badge disparity. In the meantime, I watch my w/l ratio and set personal accomplishments. My w/l ratio mostly shows if I'm on a slump and rarely and/or slowly if I'm actually improving. Personal accomplishments, such as how I deal with, or execute, certain strategies are nice but definitely not comparable across Startcraft. Sadly, how we play the game is really our only good sense of improvement. | ||
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plogamer
Canada3132 Posts
On March 09 2015 02:35 justnny wrote: I know this is somewhat off-topic, but how does one measure improvement? If proof is a league promotion, I have had no improvement with my past 3 years of Diamond league. When I started in Bronze, sure, climbing up to Diamond was "proof". Today, though, we need something else. Perhaps if MMR was visible it might help. I used the MMR Tool for years and it only proved that MMR is heavily influenced by streaks and slumps. In fact, I'd argue that the leagues make the MMR volatility worse since a losing streak yields an uglier badge. As the game ages and people quit, the lower leagues will eventually fill with quality players that may once have been ranked in much higher leagues. In that case, knowing I was a 1200 MMR in Diamond then, and knowing I am a 1200 MMR Bronze now might smooth over the badge disparity. In the meantime, I watch my w/l ratio and set personal accomplishments. My w/l ratio mostly shows if I'm on a slump and rarely and/or slowly if I'm actually improving. Personal accomplishments, such as how I deal with, or execute, certain strategies are nice but definitely not comparable across Startcraft. Sadly, how we play the game is really our only good sense of improvement. Even with real MMR shown, you will probably plateau and not change much. League placement. For ex: Top 5 plat vs Top 10 plat is a metric that can also help with measuring your progression. Also to keep in mind that everyone else is also improving. Thus if you're not falling behind, that's also a sign that you're progressing along with the rest of the player base. | ||
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MGcHarger
Canada129 Posts
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ZeromuS
Canada13379 Posts
On March 09 2015 03:03 MGcHarger wrote: I dont think the change did anything at all. Like #1 in my division is still in diamond, and he has been there for a long time now . You can be #1 in a division and still have an MMR that doesnt place you into masters. There could be a division where rank 40 is higher mmr than your rank 1 duder. | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24192 Posts
On March 09 2015 03:23 ZeromuS wrote: You can be #1 in a division and still have an MMR that doesnt place you into masters. There could be a division where rank 40 is higher mmr than your rank 1 duder. Of course, but with the numbers of people that should move up a division, most top diamond players should be in the promotion train to 2% patch masters. It's just not happening so far. | ||
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ZeromuS
Canada13379 Posts
On March 09 2015 03:29 [PkF] Wire wrote: Of course, but with the numbers of people that should move up a division, most top diamond players should be in the promotion train to 2% patch masters. It's just not happening so far. I wouldn't call it patch masters. More like, held back masters  the 2% is after all supposed to be 2% | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24192 Posts
On March 09 2015 03:35 ZeromuS wrote: I wouldn't call it patch masters. More like, held back masters the 2% is after all supposed to be 2%Of course, I was just joking ^^. I'm one of the guys yearning for the patch to be truly working to get that shiny masters icon back (around top 100 EU diamond), so I would certainly not call people that are going to be promoted patch masters ! | ||
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TelecoM
United States10645 Posts
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Fission
Canada1184 Posts
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TurboMaN
Germany925 Posts
On March 09 2015 04:43 Fission wrote: Analysis of nios.kr shows that ladder has been completely unaffected by the changes. Interesting to see if blizzard will make a statement... Can you elaborate on that? | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On March 09 2015 02:53 plogamer wrote: Even with real MMR shown, you will probably plateau and not change much. League placement. For ex: Top 5 plat vs Top 10 plat is a metric that can also help with measuring your progression. Also to keep in mind that everyone else is also improving. Thus if you're not falling behind, that's also a sign that you're progressing along with the rest of the player base. Visible MMR provides progress information. Especially if you store that MMR data from longer period of time you get a nice graph out of it. You see how you fare against the player population. If the population is improving faster than you then your MMR likely decreases. If you improve faster your MMR increases. For many after hitting the 'plateau' the MMR fluctuates in quite large range. For some a league wide range, for some others a much smaller range. Of course now as the MMR decay lowers players' MMRs artificially both directly and indirectly the MMRs of many do not present their actual skill anymore. In the current situation MMRs of most players are dropping slowly but surely even if the players are potentially improving at the same time. Next season the MMR decay mechanism will be disabled, but it will take a long time before the ladder becomes healthier via natural way. But with the current league system the league placement only tells where your MMR was after the placement match. Even if your MMR has since decreased for one or more league ranges e.g. via MMR decay, you will still likely reach that top-10 position in your original league only by spending your bonus pool. Often only handful of players in each ladder division (especially in lower leagues) spend their whole bonus pool during each season. Thus a high rank in your division often does not present progress nor skill, but have you grinded enough games to spend your bonus pool. On March 09 2015 04:14 GGzerG wrote: After this "fix" I have had a much more difficult time on ladder, I am not sure why. One possible explanation could be that lots of inactive people have started playing again when they heard that Blizzard is 'fixing' the ladder. And when many of them came back they faced MMR decay. Thus their MMR is lower than it would be in their 'typical' level. Even if they are rusty their general level is likely better compared to average players currently at that MMR level. Of course this is just speculation without any hard numbers. One would think ladder change announcements activate people to play more. | ||
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Mintograde
United States25 Posts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D_CmpXo3EE-hlvt8rX-CrTY2VZlaOU0ppAPYlkbk8tY/edit#gid=353171556 In both the January and May 2014 updates, there was a sharp and sustained shift in the nios percents when Blizzard finally flipped the switch on the changes. That same shift doesn't seem to have happened yet with this update. | ||
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ZackAttack
United States884 Posts
On March 09 2015 07:45 Mintograde wrote: I made another spreadsheet with graphs to keep track of nios.kr data during this distribution update. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D_CmpXo3EE-hlvt8rX-CrTY2VZlaOU0ppAPYlkbk8tY/edit#gid=353171556 In both the January and May 2014 updates, there was a sharp and sustained shift in the nios percents when Blizzard finally flipped the switch on the changes. That same shift doesn't seem to have happened yet with this update. Very interesting. It seems like either blizzard has really not done anything or this year is a very different problem from last year. | ||
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