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On March 14 2015 07:05 Excalibur_Z wrote:Crossposted from Bnet forums: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/16646674622I've been saying since the ladder adjustment that it is important to consider the update a "clean slate" in terms of forward development. That is, they made the adjustment to the league boundaries, and now they're looking at the data to see who is playing the game from which league. A major flaw with using the "all accounts" parse from Nios is that it included pre-update data which is no longer relevant. If some Master player last played a game 51 days ago then we don't need to track him. I ran a parse today through all tracked Nios.kr accounts and broke out only the accounts which had games played from 9 days ago or less (March 5 being 8 days ago but in the event time zones or date rounding played a role I expanded the coverage to 9 days). This is what it looks like: NA Server All All % 3/5/2015+ 3/5/2015+%
GM 198 0.22% 198 0.51%
Master 796 0.86% 440 1.14%
Diamond 7601 8.26% 4414 11.39%
Plat 12165 13.22% 6252 16.13%
Gold 35642 38.72% 16133 41.63%
Silver 27588 29.97% 8478 21.88%
Bronze 8049 8.75% 2834 7.31%
Total 92039 38749 + Show Spoiler +And here's the spreadsheet (man did it take a lot of work to whittle down the raw data to less than 2,000,000 cells, which is the limit for Google Sheets): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzFJbOj5aE6ljRsWJ251t41tzaJrmM1q0kCR_FGCzaQ/edit?usp=sharingNow, we already know that Nios doesn't track every account in existence, there are some holes here and there, but for the most part this is probably a decent parse. What we see here is that Master, Diamond, and Platinum are probably still a little underpopulated after the adjustment, some of the bloat from Silver transferred into Gold, and Bronze seems to have freed up a bit. EDIT: Minor caveat, we don't know if the "x bonus weeks behind" activity filter also applies, which would change the distribution a little bit. I sent a PM to frajen86 asking for him to duplicate my parse with his own scraper (both to verify my findings and to apply that filter) since Nios doesn't include bonus pool information .
Interesting data. But one problem with this data is that we don't know if the active people (people who have played after the changes) have won at least one match. Why? League promotions happen only after a win. For example I personally have played only one 1v1 match with each of my accounts after the changes to prevent MMR decay (1 match per two weeks is needed to prevent MMR decay). And all of those matches were losses. I would presume that there are lots of people who have played only few games after the changes out of curiosity but not achieved any wins. It is common in forum messages that people think that only one match is needed for a potential promotion to happen, but don't realize that actually one victory is needed. Placement matches are of course exceptions to this rule.
There are few possibilities how to recognize which accounts have won matches: 1) Have a snapshot of all players just before the changes and then compare the win-loss values to the post-change values, 2) crawl version histories for all active players and search for 1v1 victories with positive ladder point gains that happened after the changes. The problem is that web profile match histories only contain 25 entries.
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So basically a little change was there but it is still nearly 50% off for Masters. I'm a bit worried there wasn't another official comment on this, most likely they will just wait for the next season.
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On March 16 2015 19:39 flyleaf wrote:
So basically a little change was there but it is still nearly 50% off for Masters. I'm a bit worried there wasn't another official comment on this, most likely they will just wait for the next season.
I would argue that ML has seen the greatest positive change increasing by almost 50% :D
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Elentos
55594 Posts
On March 16 2015 19:48 y0su wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2015 19:39 flyleaf wrote:
So basically a little change was there but it is still nearly 50% off for Masters. I'm a bit worried there wasn't another official comment on this, most likely they will just wait for the next season. I would argue that ML has seen the greatest positive change increasing by almost 50% :D
While true, Masters is now at like 1.1% when it should be 2%.
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On March 16 2015 20:55 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2015 19:48 y0su wrote:On March 16 2015 19:39 flyleaf wrote:
So basically a little change was there but it is still nearly 50% off for Masters. I'm a bit worried there wasn't another official comment on this, most likely they will just wait for the next season. I would argue that ML has seen the greatest positive change increasing by almost 50% :D While true, Masters is now at like 1.1% when it should be 2%.
Which means a player with a (normally) ~mid masters mmr is now diamond and to actually get promoted you need basically high masters mmr. This will not help in anyway to motivate semi-serious players to play ladder. Let's hope they do something before the next season x).
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what a nightmare blizzard has created
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On March 16 2015 21:56 Ignorant prodigy wrote:
what a nightmare blizzard has created
could be easily avoided if they just gave everyone a number (read: visible mmr) and put them on a giant list from best to worst player
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not really. im in favor of that trust me.. and bring back mid-season demotions
but the damage at this point is done. they would have to retro-actively remove the impact of mmr decay... but that's nearly impossible
i have a few friends who are the perfect example.. they are high diamond/low masters caliber players and are in gold... and the funny part is they're playing people just like themselves ..who also have gold mmr.. so getting out of gold is significantly harder than it should be...it's like running in place. its frustrating for true gold players and for the diamond players
you would have to wipe it clean and start fresh. but they try to hit these 'ideal' percentages of distribution so they muck with the process and try to manipulate the ladder... but they should just let the numbers speak for themselves..
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Yesterday I've got 20 Points for beating someone in the Top10 EU Diamond (he was favored), right before I've got 16 Points (he was slightly favored) for beating a Masters Player with 1000 Points and 600 Bonus Pool which would most likely put him in the top 100 Masters EU. So I would assume there are some more issues then just the league breakpoints..
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On March 16 2015 22:34 Ignorant prodigy wrote:
but the damage at this point is done. they would have to retro-actively remove the impact of mmr decay... but that's nearly impossible
Actually the solution is simple. Just reset MMRs for all. Yes it would be little chaotic at first, but then again MMRs change rapidly after a fresh start. In a month or two the ladder would likely be healthier than it is now. Also they could bring back the old MMR thresholds from summer 2013, where MMR ranges for all leagues were reasonable wide (no huge diamond league MMR range compared to others like at the moment). It would potentially need a offset / threshold check after some months/seasons as the player population is different than it was back then.
Also MMRs would become a skill rating once again (At the moment people with considerable skill differences are sharing similar MMRs --> MMR is not a skill rating for many anymore). And as a result the matchmaking would become better than it is in its current state (Matchmaking system is technically fine, but it does not see difference e.g. with a master skilled player and a gold skilled player who both have similar MMRs, which leads to lackluster matchmaking results).
Edit: I seem not to have read 'ignorant prodigy's message entirely as he suggested the same thing at the end of his message.
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I still feel like the ladder is a bit weird. I havent gotten promoted but that isnt even the issue anymore. I m platinium, about 1170pts, 56% win rate. (which, I assume, isnt so great as to warrant a promotion).
The problem is: out of the almost 90games I ve played, about a third were fair, in the sense that it felt balanced. The rest were either I got totally owned by people way out of my league or I did the same to other players. Even yesterday I got placed against a guy with 19APM and no rank icon. I assume he was quite new to the game. This is ridiculous, and not fun for either him or me.
I dont care whether I am in masters or bronze as long as the games are relatively even, most of the time.
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I drew 2 bronze leaguers yesterday. Granted I'm only mid gold, but it wasn't even close to competitive. I felt like I was beating up a 1st grader.
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On March 17 2015 03:39 WGT-Baal wrote:
I still feel like the ladder is a bit weird. I havent gotten promoted but that isnt even the issue anymore. I m platinium, about 1170pts, 56% win rate. (which, I assume, isnt so great as to warrant a promotion).
The problem is: out of the almost 90games I ve played, about a third were fair, in the sense that it felt balanced. The rest were either I got totally owned by people way out of my league or I did the same to other players. Even yesterday I got placed against a guy with 19APM and no rank icon. I assume he was quite new to the game. This is ridiculous, and not fun for either him or me.
I dont care whether I am in masters or bronze as long as the games are relatively even, most of the time.
I think the problem is more so there isn't enough players on ladder?
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OsaX Nymloth
Poland3244 Posts
On March 17 2015 07:15 fethers wrote:
I drew 2 bronze leaguers yesterday. Granted I'm only mid gold, but it wasn't even close to competitive. I felt like I was beating up a 1st grader.
Played recently a guy with no rank. I beat him easily. Checked after game: 11 times bronze.
I'm high diamond.
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It's not working as intended at all and still no serious update except "everything is going alright on our side, we'll keep monitoring the changes". I wonder who is in charge of monitoring the changes, because that guy has a job as entertaining as watching a leaky faucet.
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Elentos
55594 Posts
On March 17 2015 03:39 WGT-Baal wrote:
I still feel like the ladder is a bit weird. I havent gotten promoted but that isnt even the issue anymore. I m platinium, about 1170pts, 56% win rate. (which, I assume, isnt so great as to warrant a promotion).
The problem is: out of the almost 90games I ve played, about a third were fair, in the sense that it felt balanced. The rest were either I got totally owned by people way out of my league or I did the same to other players. Even yesterday I got placed against a guy with 19APM and no rank icon. I assume he was quite new to the game. This is ridiculous, and not fun for either him or me.
I dont care whether I am in masters or bronze as long as the games are relatively even, most of the time.
I keep having things like these happen to me aswell. A week or so ago I played against a platinum league guy with 20 APM who didn't research warpgate and didn't expand by the 11 minute mark, the game ended seconds after. While a guy like that somehow made plat, I haven't gotten back into plat for 3 seasons in a row, despite beating high gold players and some mid platinum players. And then occasionally I get someone in silver or unranked, or someone relatively new in gold, and it's a stomp that's no fun whatsoever. It's no wonder that about 80% of my opponents don't GG even though I don't cheese <.<.
Also, I wish I got promoted so that I can finally do something else than holding a baneling bust on Overgrowth against Zerg because that's all you do on that map in gold league, apparently. T_T
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I hope Blizzard responds to all these problems. It seems that their patch didn't really do much apart from changing a couple of ranks.
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The big steps will happen when the next season starts.
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On March 17 2015 09:01 Yrr wrote:
The big steps will happen when the next season starts.
I hope so, but if I get a beta key (that s a big IF though), I dont think I ll even play a single game next season.
The 2v2 system is also a big mess. I played with a friend who s master, I m high plat. We were 14 times masters together. We oculdnt play this season so we had to play our 1 placement games. We ended up bronze, facing a team of 2 silver players. We were plat last season (which was already not very funny).
But I can understand that there are few players in 2v2.
edit: ok, im out of 1v1. Just got matched against and pwned by FXOElbegast, (who s also in plat ...)
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So any hope it will be back to normal with the new season tomorrow(?)? :>
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EPT
