Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST)
On January 22 2015 22:53 Gnosis wrote: Is there a witness to a conversation? Or maybe screenshots of in game text? Or... No? That's a problem.
Well i am glad that you are not in charge of any team that is responsible for preventing fraud.
You are asking for some unrealistic level of evidence that will be missing in 99.9% of match-fixing cases.
A screenshot of San's skype saying "yes, i will throw"? Someone hearing that San agreed to throw the match during the convo in the dark alley?
Are you really expecting this sort of evidence before "chaging your mind" about match being fixed?
Damn, its on the same level as the other guy in this thread claiming that "San said he didnt throw" should be enough to "close the case"
You mean 'improbable'. Players have previously been caught talking about match fixing, so it's not unreasonable to wonder whether such an occurance happened here as well. But then I also said 'Or...', so while I provided two examples, my list was certainly not exhaustive. Surely there are other kinds of evidence that one might gather?
I am asking for a connection which you can't seem to provide short of your imagination (if this is what happened, then... but where is the subsantial proof of the 'if'?). I have a creative imagination as well: maybe someone purposely bet the way they did to cast suspicion on the character and integrity of San. Can you rule that out with certainty other than by declaring it, via your own divine fiat, 'improbable' or 'unreasonable'? No.
Where is the connection?
So my problem is that I expect a higher burden of proof than you do. But then I should hope so, when the accusations in question are often career-ending.
Yeah I think you should cut your losses Emo. While I think you are on the right track, more than most people here, they aren't going to listen to you. This is a videogame-forum with passionate fans, you should stick to twoplustwo.
On January 22 2015 23:30 Gnosis wrote: If you do not have enough evidence to refute alternative explanations (and you don't, save your opinion, because you haven't provided any), then you do not have enough evidence to definitively maintain your own.
So now you assume that i need evidence to refute every low-probability alternative explanations? Do i need the evidence to refuse the absurd ones, as well? Are you really going into the "well you cant prove that it wasnt just some nigerian prince randomly clicking buttons on his pinnacle account" territory?
You seem to think I'm missing the point, but it's this that you don't seem to comprehend. [If betting is 'A' and the game between Dark and San 'C', then you lack 'B' that connects them.
Ok i am done with you. The betting is by no means connected to the match. Top fucking lol.
On January 22 2015 23:37 Jarree wrote: Yeah I think you should cut your losses Emo. While I think you are on the right track, more than most people here, they aren't going to listen to you. This is a videogame-forum with passionate fans, you should stick to twoplustwo.
Agreed, i am out.
It was just a nigerian prince betting all along, or a random bookie not wanting to pay out the winners.
On January 22 2015 23:38 EmoFin wrote:So now you assume that i need evidence to refute every low-probability alternative explanations? Do i need the evidence to refuse the absurd ones, at well? Are you really going into the "well you cant proove that it wasnt just some nigerian prince randomly clicking buttons on his pinnacle account" territory?
'Low-probability' according to what metric? But then even if I agreed with you, there is no gaurantee that probability corresponds to what actually happened. Since you like analogies: the occurance of life in the universe is, as far as we know, 'low-probability', yet here we are. Frankly, I'm not sure you understand what you're saying.
On January 22 2015 23:38 EmoFin wrote:Ok i am done with you. The betting is by no means connected to the match. Top fucking lol.
You are aware that Dark and San's relation to the betting that occured is (as far as we know) incidental via their participation in a match that was being betted on, right? So any betting patterns are by default incidental to Dark and San, so any accusations of match-fixing must provide evidence that the incidental relation isn't really incidental at all (for one or both of the players).
So the person who originally accused san of throwing changed his statements to "possibly indirectly involved". When asks for proof, he cites "math doesn't lie" with over 95% confidence. I hope he learns math properly and realise this is statistics to produce expected result which alarms an investigation but isn't evidence in itself.
So in the end, if more and more things point out to the match being fixed, the probability of it being just some random nigerian prince betting on dark (because he fancied his name or something) becomes lower and lower.
On another note, EmoFin you sound incredibly racist with that comment.
I'm an e-sport fan, not a gambler by any means, but the amount of stuborness displayed by my fellow fanboys is quite depressing.
I will not comment further on the maths / bettings patterns sides of things. I think that it has been more than accuratly explained: the odds of anything else than match-fixing has happened is incredibly low. Maybe not low enough to sentence San in a real trial, but quite sufficient to make the match-fixing hypothesis a very safe bet (ahah).
But I want to add something. It 's not new of course since the topic has already been beaten to death, but I think that it did not get the attention it deserved.
It's about the "information leaking" theory, the only remotly plausible way to explain the bets without directly incriminating San. In fact I would comfortably claim that the idea of a leak is not, even remotly, plausible, because
it implies that the "informed gambler" had far better informations than San's coach, and in fact than San himself
for this to be true, you would need that 1) San knew that he was creepled horribly enough to make his chance to win a regular game again Dark less than 20% (please do note that with a 20% chance to win for San, your 50k bet on Dark is not safe by any mean, but rather "not stupid"). 2) San confessed his condition to someone. 3) San hid it from his coach this is obvious and crucial. If the coach has been aware, he would have fielded someone else, or at least asked San to try some silly cheese, one that yield more than 20% winrate 4) San decided on his own to not try a silly cheese, but instead went for a longer game he was almost sure to loose: in other words he threw the game anyway, but without any back payment.
tldr: people refusing to link the betting pattern to some kind of match-fixing must believe in at least one of the two following statements:
- San, or his coach, threw the game without being paid to do so - In the hands of a good player, Protoss have no cheese yielding more than 20% winrate against Zerg.
the first is unbelievable for a gambler, and the later... yeah... is laughable if you follow SC2 in the slightest.
Valid points, Karel. However, as we still do not have enough evidence to know what actually happened, what we think has little meaning. It'd be absurd to say "San threw the match" when only looking at the betting patterns. Shit, if that's all you needed to have someone or some team ousted from the scene (think competitors), then I'm sure that Sapinda/Azubu company could have a hay-day.
I think it is silly for anyone to make any real accusations until solid DIRECT evidence is released (by Kespa?). The betting patterns are only reason for suspicion and nothing more.
Maybe some wealthy guy looked at the directions the PL arrows were pointing and saw Dark had an upward arrow while San did not!
On January 23 2015 03:27 Canucklehead wrote: Have the korean netizens talked about this at all?
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but my impression is that they don't want to talk about it. Too much "shame" and bad memories from the BW days? Too much danger of saying something wrong or "accusing".
Honestly I would love to hear what Nazgul, or anyone with greater insight, has to say about this.
I could be convinced its not a big deal, but so far I'm not at that point based on what I've seen.
I remain calm however, so don't concern yourself with that
On January 23 2015 03:27 Canucklehead wrote: Have the korean netizens talked about this at all?
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but my impression is that they don't want to talk about it. Too much "shame" and bad memories from the BW days? Too much danger of saying something wrong or "accusing".
Yeah, that's why I was wondering if the korean netizens have said anything yet because it's been almost 2 days and I haven't seen one comment in this thread translating comments from korean netizens. Usually in drama cases involving korea you get someone translating some comments from korean message boards but in this case I've seen nada.
On January 23 2015 03:27 Canucklehead wrote: Have the korean netizens talked about this at all?
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but my impression is that they don't want to talk about it. Too much "shame" and bad memories from the BW days? Too much danger of saying something wrong or "accusing".
Yeah, that's why I was wondering if the korean netizens have said anything yet because it's been almost 2 days and I haven't seen one comment in this thread translating comments from korean netizens. Usually in drama cases involving korea you get someone translating some comments from korean message boards but in this case I've seen nada.
Ok, so why aren't the foreign pros and team leaders talking about it?
I think its for the same reasons, its too hot a topic and anyone who touches it risks a backlash.
On January 23 2015 03:27 Canucklehead wrote: Have the korean netizens talked about this at all?
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but my impression is that they don't want to talk about it. Too much "shame" and bad memories from the BW days? Too much danger of saying something wrong or "accusing".
Yeah, that's why I was wondering if the korean netizens have said anything yet because it's been almost 2 days and I haven't seen one comment in this thread translating comments from korean netizens. Usually in drama cases involving korea you get someone translating some comments from korean message boards but in this case I've seen nada.
Ok, so why aren't the foreign pros and team leaders talking about it?
EPT
