EPTWCS EU Ro16 - Group C Preview
The Great Barrier
Countdown:
It's what separates the false hopes from the foreigner favorites. It's what draws the line between participants and contenders. It's the quarter finals. That only a quarter of Ro8 contestants come from the continent has only further emphasized how important it is to make the bracket stages, not only to have a glance at the prize, but state with clarity that one should rightfully be considered one of the best. Or at least, one of the most consistent.
That's the big question about
NrS.Welmu. He is the second most consistently good European in WCS EU behind VortiX, and yet he has never come close to winning a title. The Finn has reached the Ro8 3 times out of 5, before being chopped down 0-3 each time against the first Korean he's faced (read: in the bracket stages), and it is strange how he's yet to find real success despite his talents. Players like Snute, Bunny, and Scarlett are often listed as the top foreigners, but for all their titles and rousing victories against Koreans, none of the three are as consistent as Welmu. But in a scene that puts its champions on a throne of money and WCS points while forgetting its also-rans--consider how soO's 2 finals appearances and current Ro4 still have not come close to booking his spot to Blizzcon--being consistently good but never occasionally great is just a nice way of calling someone mediocre. For all his efforts, all Welmu has won is a purple heart, a red ribbon, and a firm pat on the back. Yet you have to believe he's capable of more. At DreamHack Moscow, his history of bracket disappointments--or successes, depending on who you ask--continued. He reached the Ro16 by beating fraer and Kas twice, before losing to TRUE in 2 straight games. He wasn't favored against the Dead Pixels Zerg, but it perpetuates the image of the young Finn as a player that bests fellow foreigners but struggles against Koreans. Had he fallen into Group A of WCS EU Ro16, he'd be considered the favorite to make it through to the next round. He's shown repeatedly that he has what it takes to escape even the toughest of groups, and his fans are likely already looking at the Ro8 for him.
It's always been his stumbling block, as he has gone 0-6 in Ro8 games this year in series that were about as close as their scores suggest. One thing to admire about Welmu, however, is his lack of fear in playing macro games against players considered his betters. Though he's not averse to throwing in an odd all in or two, the nRs protoss is one of the few locals who can compete against anyone in long games. His downfall often occurs when he's goaded into poor engagements, wasting a game's worth of patience and build up. The dependence of colossus, by far his favorite unit, on concaves and correct positioning only exacerbate the mistakes he makes, but he does do enough right things to get to that final, climactic battle. Fans of Welmu are hoping that he can Finnish Strong to end the WCS season, and while Group C isn't the easiest group for a player like Welmu, at the very least there's only one clearly superior player, and his first opponent is considered by many as the weakest Korean still in contention.
That is, of course, if you're one of those fans that have forgotten
Ai.Golden's semi final finish last season. Sure, there was a large element of luck that went into his run, as he finished 2nd in all his groups ahead of 2 foreigners while facing VortiX instead of a Korean in the Ro8. But that doesn't take away from the fact that he went far in his debut season in EU, and he did push San to the limit before falling in game 5. There is much to like about his scrappy brand of zerg, but it's difficult to say whether he just lucked out on a few base trades and all ins or whether he is an unassuming master of chaos. There's no one style to pin on him as we've seen him use muta corruptor, roach hydra, swarm hosts, and just about any composition he fancies when the game loads, and he showed last season that his unpredictability can be a recipe for success.Golden certainly earned respect last season, but what has he been up to lately? Two Dreamhacks have been Golden's recent offline appearances, and he had different levels of success. Dreamhack Valencia back in July saw him reach the Ro8 before losing to Leenock, but Dreamhack Moscow a week ago was a train wreck for him as he was knocked out in the group stages by Happy and Adonminus. This group has to be a bounce back performance for Golden if he hopes to make it back to back appearances in the bracket stage.
Losses to foreigners at Dreamhack in both ZvP and ZvT doesn't bode well for this Golden in this group, so he comes in with a lot to prove. Notably Golden may get a chance to play his ex-Slayers teammate MMA. Golden addressed his teammates in a personal letter when he left Slayers, and he had this to say about MMA:
"Also MMA. The big brother in the team and also my mentor. The excellent self control and mind control you have is why you are the champion. When I look down and blue you listen to my worries thoroughly.. You are good at sports as well as the game and it was my honour to meet the perfect guy. If you have one down side..... you have the same down side that I have.. lol "
Although a personal relationship won't stop Golden's banelings from crashing into marines or MMA's thors from shooting down mutalisks, it is always interesting to see two close friends and teammates play each other. To reach MMA, however, he will have to go through Welmu, and that could in itself be a big hurdle for Golden. This Ro16 group will show the world whether Golden's run last season was a fluke or if he is a worthy contender in WCS Europe. This is, after all, his last chance before he leaves for the military.
For how long
Liquid`MaNa has been one of the stronger Protoss players in Europe, he can actually be fairly inconsistent. At best, MaNa has the capability to win Premier Tournaments like he did at Dreamhack: Summer in 2012. At worst, he can be an afterthought in WCS, as he has been for the first two years of the league's existence. However, he does seem to be on the rise recently. He is now in his second straight Round of 16 for the first time in WCS, and he recently won the Basetrade "Who's the Best European?" Tournament. He notably bested Welmu 2-0 and rampaged through the top eight bracket with two PvT wins and a PvP victory in the final. While we have serious doubts as to whether the winner of the "Who's the Best European" is actually the best European player, it does speak volumes that MaNa managed to come out on top. He is looking at a tough first match against MMA, but the rest of the group looks winnable for the Polish Protoss. He 2-0'd Welmu in the WTB European tournament and he may be able to exploit some weaknesses that Golden showed in Dreamhack Moscow to get a win in that matchup. MaNa has had his up and downs in WCS, but he looks to be peaking at the right time to make a deep run in the last season of 2014.
Speaking of resurgent players,
Acer.MMA has recovered in a big way after a lackluster Season 2. Now that Innovation has left the team, MMA is back to being the ace for Acer and he is certainly playing like one. He beat First and YoDa to win what was probably the toughest group in the Ro32 to set up his position here in the Round of 16. However, his real accomplishment came just a week ago when he won his first Premier event in about a year at Dreamhack Moscow. MMA is clearly in top form, and that is bad news for the other players in this group. It's a fact that MMA is the most studied and analyzed player competing in Group C, but even with all the VODs in the world, the one thing that players ask when facing the Acer terran is: "can I keep up with him?" With drop play and multidirectional harassment back in vogue in every matchup, MMA's improved results are no coincidence. He's every observer's nightmare, and expect him to subject each player to his Terran Torture Rack.MMA would be the favorite in this group no matter what his current form was, but given his performance over the past two weeks, he should go 4-0. MMA is a player that we expect to see in the top 16 in this region, and it would be no surprise to see him win here and move on after he was denied in Season 2. As a brief reminder to all the viewers: MMA peaked late in 2013 as well when he won WCS EU after a strong performance at Dreamhack Bucharest. It looks like MMA is setting up well to replicate that and should reach the Ro8 for the fourth time.
Overall thoughts and Prediction:
I have already stated that I have full faith in MMA to win this group after watching his run at Dreamhack: Moscow. For second place, I have to go with the hot hand. Golden looked shaky at Dreamhack a week ago, and I'm not sure he can recover against stronger Protoss players here. Welmu made the Ro16 in Moscow before losing to TRUE, but he did fall to MaNa 0-2 a few weeks ago. MaNa is my pick to finally reach the quarter finals.
Golden > Welmu
MMA > MaNa
Welmu < MaNa
Golden < MMA
MaNa > Golden
MMA and MaNa advance.
