GSL Season Two
Code S Ro16

Ro16 Group C Preview
Maru, Dark, Stork, True

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Maru, Dark, Stork, TRUE

by TameNaken

Group C has all the ingredients needed to capture the attention of old and new StarCraft fans alike. TRUE, the most entertaining Zerg player since Leenock, will battle it out against the long standing veteran Stork. Meanwhile, the young Terran hope and potential future great Maru takes on SKT's mysterious prospect Dark.

All logic says that JinAir_Maru should raise the Terran banner high and get out of this group with a swift 4-0. No-one else in group C has ever made it to the round of 8 of Code S. The last time Maru didn’t make a Round of 8 was over a year ago, in a season where Soulkey reverse swept Innovation in the very first HotS GSL. The very next season, Maru won the WCS Korea championship, and ever since then he has arguably been the best Terran in the world. Even if you don't agree with that last point, you have to admit that his style of play simply can't be imitated, relying on incredible speed and mechanics to overwhelm opponents in ways we didn't know were possible.

The only possible issue is that this group has two zergs. TvZ is generally considered the worst of Maru's match-ups, and TvZ trends in Korea have favored Zerg in the last month or two. Maru and other Terrans have been experimenting with a variety of styles, sometimes choosing hellbats over mines, and sometimes going for odd but effective bio-mech combinations. Maru is capable of playing mech as well, but the bio play style offers him more opportunity to out-play his opponents. Dark won't have much scouting info on Maru as there will be only four games to watch in the last month, and with the recent removal of the transformation servos upgrade, he needs to be ready for anything.

While Maru is the outright favourite to make it out of this group, he can't look past his first opponent in SKT_Dark. The SKT Zerg has been around since early 2012 (originally playing on SlayerS) but only made his first Code S appearance last season where he was eliminated in the round of 32. He managed to overcome the Ro32 hurdle this season solely through his ZvT which saw him 4-0 Bbyong.

Going 4-0 against Bbyong might have been a "so what?" result in previous times, but Bbyong's MVP-worthy performance in Proleague Round 3 should make Maru at least a little bit worried about Dark. It's even more disconcerting for Maru when you consider the content of the games. Bbyong was dismantled in long macro games where he tried both bio and mech compositions to no avail, falling against Dark’s muta-ling-bane and swarm hosts respectively. The only weakness Dark has shown in recent TvZ’s is his lackluster defense against the proxy 11-11 strategy, which is a strategy that Maru is likely to abuse.

The other argument in favour of Dark is that he's said to have placed first in the SKT in-house rankings on past occasions. While this probably isn’t important when judging his TvZ, their world class Protoss and Zerg line-up means Dark has a good chance against True and Stork when he inevitably has to face them.

It’s hard to imagine how Starcraft 2 would be if Zerg didn’t have banelings. Marineking probably wouldn’t have so many final appearances and JinAir_TRUE would be overlooked as just another Zerg. Thankfully Banelings do exist and there’s a good chance we see TRUE’s mass baneling max-out against the marine splits of his team-mate Maru.

For that to happen TRUE will probably have to send Stork to the losers match in his second most interesting match-up. TRUE is perfectly capable of playing drawn-out swarm host games or pure roach hydra but his signature style involves rushing to ultralisks after which he defends for as long as he can while stockpiling gas for a mass muta switch. It’s an odd style but has worked against some of the best Protosses in the world. Unfortunately ZvP is TRUE’s worst matchup and sports only a 35% win rate so far in 2014. And yet Stork is likely to be the easiest opponent he faces on the night. More than likely TRUE will get knocked out 0-4 cementing his reputation as a Code S gate-keeper rather than a key-player. Regardless of whether he wins or loses, he's bound to entertain us.

The last player of the group is the Code-S Royal Roader Stork. Stork has been playing Starcraft 2 for just over 2 years and only in the last month has shown play worth of his Brood War name. And he still almost didn’t make it to the Ro16! Stork recently had a long interview with Inven commemorating 10 years since his debut and confessed that during his 13 loss streak in Proleague he was on the verge of quitting. Stork also revealed that he is likely to retire within the next 2 years and thus has a new goal of winning as many individual leagues as possible so he can leave behind a good legacy.

Stork has had some good results in individual competition this month, winning the ESTV Season 2 Cup and breaking through the HomeStory Cup IX qualifiers for Korea. However, he did not have to face opponents who are quite as good as the ones he faces today, and he'll need to show he can reach an even higher level if he's to reach the quarterfinals of Code S. Fortunately for Stork, he's had an 80% winrate against Zergs in the last 3 months, which will help him a lot in this group. While his vT win-rate is hovering at 50%, beating top TvP player Maru isn't something he should be counting on in the first place.

Prediction:

While this group is difficult to predict, it does seem that TRUE will end up finishing in last. True will play his worst match-up against Stork’s best to start, and things don't get much better from there. The 3 person race between Dark, Stork and Maru is the real meat of the group. We could have a scissors paper rock situation, where if you consider each player's win-rates in the corresponding, it should go Dark>Maru>Stork>Dark. Stork will definitely be holding out for a Dark win since he doesn’t have much chance against Maru. Ultimately I’m going to have to believe that Maru’s consistency and class outweighs his TvZ weakness.

Maru > Dark
Stork > True
Maru > Stork
Dark > True
Stork > Dark

Maru and Stork advance.

Writers: TameNaken.
Graphics: GOM eXP.
Editor: Waxangel.