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WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 18

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Uxon
Profile Joined September 2014
Italy4 Posts
September 02 2014 09:36 GMT
#341
On September 02 2014 18:15 Circumstance wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote:
Die4Ever really great job!
I have two questions for you:

1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points.
2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.

Thank you!


http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events


Thanks Circumstance, this answers to my first question but the second one still remains, the first link shows that there aren't other tournaments anymore after the ones i mentioned above. Then why keep the placeholder?
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 02 2014 13:46 GMT
#342
On September 02 2014 18:36 Uxon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 02 2014 18:15 Circumstance wrote:
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote:
Die4Ever really great job!
I have two questions for you:

1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points.
2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair.

Thank you!


http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events


Thanks Circumstance, this answers to my first question but the second one still remains, the first link shows that there aren't other tournaments anymore after the ones i mentioned above. Then why keep the placeholder?

There's still a chance that a new tournament could be announced maybe, and the placeholder prevents prematurely giving players 0% or 100% chance prematurely due to unannounced tournaments. It is getting pretty late though, I wish I knew for sure if there was going to be anything else this year.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
September 03 2014 22:39 GMT
#343
Why is Red Bull Washington listed on the site when it doesn't offer WCS points?
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Darkhorse
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States23455 Posts
September 03 2014 22:50 GMT
#344
So Jjakji is now reasonably vulnerable given he is out of WCS and isn't going to DH Moscow
WriterRecently Necro'd (?)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 03 2014 22:58 GMT
#345
On September 04 2014 07:39 Darkdwarf wrote:
Why is Red Bull Washington listed on the site when it doesn't offer WCS points?

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

it's listed on both of those sites, so it seems to be giving WCS Points
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 03 2014 22:59 GMT
#346
On September 04 2014 07:50 Darkhorse wrote:
So Jjakji is now reasonably vulnerable given he is out of WCS and isn't going to DH Moscow

yea he still has good chances, but he should go to Dreamhack Stockholm to secure his spot, even an 8th place finish there would put him at ~ 97.93 %
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
September 04 2014 00:00 GMT
#347
On September 04 2014 07:58 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2014 07:39 Darkdwarf wrote:
Why is Red Bull Washington listed on the site when it doesn't offer WCS points?

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

it's listed on both of those sites, so it seems to be giving WCS Points


My bad, I was looking on the event's liquipedia page. Interesting that it says TBD how many points are on offer...
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 04 2014 00:09 GMT
#348
On September 04 2014 09:00 Darkdwarf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 04 2014 07:58 Die4Ever wrote:
On September 04 2014 07:39 Darkdwarf wrote:
Why is Red Bull Washington listed on the site when it doesn't offer WCS points?

http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

it's listed on both of those sites, so it seems to be giving WCS Points


My bad, I was looking on the event's liquipedia page. Interesting that it says TBD how many points are on offer...

Yea, I'm thinking they're negotiating with Blizzard between tier 2 and tier 3. Right now I'm assuming they're going to be a tier 2 (750 points to the winner like dreamhacks). Tier 3 would be 300 points to the winner. Either way the players can't get points if they lose in the 1st round, so they don't get any guaranteed points from it.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
movac
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada494 Posts
September 04 2014 16:12 GMT
#349
Red Bull only has 8 players while WCS events requires at least 16, but G3 infinity which only had 12 qualified to give out WCS point, not sure how that worked.
nikouli-makouli
Profile Joined November 2012
10 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-04 16:25:33
September 04 2014 16:19 GMT
#350
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 04 2014 17:08 GMT
#351
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !

Thanks for the feedback. I will add an option to view stats for when all players are considered equal, should be done today after WCS EU.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 04 2014 17:58 GMT
#352
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !

here you go
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
unfortunately I didn't plan for adding flags to the end of links, so when you click on a link you'll have to add &use_aligulac=0 at the end again like
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55&use_aligulac=0
this might be fixed some day, but I don't have time to fix that today

here's the top 25 Blizzcon Chances, WITHOUT USING ALIGULAC RATINGS
  1. kr HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
  2. kr MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
  3. kr TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
  4. kr StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
  5. kr Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
  6. kr San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
  7. kr Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
  8. kr Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
  9. kr Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.96 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
  10. kr Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 99.26 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
  11. kr jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 83.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
  12. kr sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 71.97 %, Min WCS Points: 2450
  13. kr Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 65.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
  14. kr soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 62.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
  15. kr Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 48.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
  16. kr herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 34.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
  17. no Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 33.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
  18. kr Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 25.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
  19. kr viOLet, is at ~ 24.26 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
  20. kr MMA (Acer), is at ~ 17.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
  21. kr Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 14.37 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
  22. kr INnoVation, is at ~ 12.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
  23. kr Flash (KT), is at ~ 10.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
  24. kr HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 10.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
  25. ca Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 8.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1400
"Expert" mods4ever.com
hewo
Profile Joined March 2011
Norway119 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-04 18:49:22
September 04 2014 18:48 GMT
#353
On September 05 2014 02:58 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !

here you go
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
unfortunately I didn't plan for adding flags to the end of links, so when you click on a link you'll have to add &use_aligulac=0 at the end again like
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55&use_aligulac=0
this might be fixed some day, but I don't have time to fix that today

here's the top 25 Blizzcon Chances, WITHOUT USING ALIGULAC RATINGS
*removed*


This is still without todays GSL results, right?
Aligulac accomplice | Go Liquid´Snute!! | BBTV
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 04 2014 18:51 GMT
#354
On September 05 2014 03:48 hewo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2014 02:58 Die4Ever wrote:
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !

here you go
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
unfortunately I didn't plan for adding flags to the end of links, so when you click on a link you'll have to add &use_aligulac=0 at the end again like
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55&use_aligulac=0
this might be fixed some day, but I don't have time to fix that today

here's the top 25 Blizzcon Chances, WITHOUT USING ALIGULAC RATINGS
*removed*


This is still without todays GSL results, right?

it's including the results of GSL ro16 group B, you can tell because it's not listed in the upcoming matches section anymore
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-05 13:16:32
September 05 2014 13:05 GMT
#355
results from the completion of GSL ro16 group D

+ Show Spoiler [Flash, soO, DRG, TRUE changes] +

kr soO went up by ~ 21.95 %, going from ~ 58.39 % to ~ 80.34 %
kr DongRaeGu went up by ~ 1.74 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 3.55 %

kr Flash went down by ~ 18.04 %, going from ~ 22.44 % to ~ 4.41 %
kr TRUE went down by ~ 2.23 %, going from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 0.04 %

Flash can still make it
~ 13.41 % of the time
Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup
This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 4.41 % to ~ 31.84 %

~ 1.73 % of the time
Flash gets 1st in DreamHack Stockholm
This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 4.38 % to ~ 17.85 %
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Darkdwarf
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Sweden960 Posts
September 05 2014 13:31 GMT
#356
So Flash's journey stopped right there, most likely.
Teams: IM, Jin Air, Invictus || Players: Maru, GuMiho, INnoVation, Ryung, sOs, Squirtle, NaNiwa, Has, Zoun, Life, Rogue, Dark
movac
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada494 Posts
September 05 2014 13:34 GMT
#357
On September 05 2014 22:31 Darkdwarf wrote:
So Flash's journey stopped right there, most likely.


Unless he wins the KeSPA cup =)
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18572 Posts
September 05 2014 13:41 GMT
#358
On September 05 2014 22:34 movac wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2014 22:31 Darkdwarf wrote:
So Flash's journey stopped right there, most likely.


Unless he wins the KeSPA cup =)


Winning Kespa cup increases his chance to only 30% :o
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17725 Posts
September 05 2014 13:56 GMT
#359
On September 05 2014 22:41 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2014 22:34 movac wrote:
On September 05 2014 22:31 Darkdwarf wrote:
So Flash's journey stopped right there, most likely.


Unless he wins the KeSPA cup =)


Winning Kespa cup increases his chance to only 30% :o

Classic losing helps him a bit too

~ 5.8 % of the time
Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup
Classic gets 16th in KeSPA Cup
This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 4.38 % to ~ 40.63 %
"Expert" mods4ever.com
nikouli-makouli
Profile Joined November 2012
10 Posts
September 05 2014 20:18 GMT
#360
On September 05 2014 02:58 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2014 01:19 nikouli-makouli wrote:
Hello

Your wcs predictor is relly cool but please, why using aligulac ( there standing isn't sure at 100% ) ? I think it's better to do a 2nd probabilities standing for blizzcon with all players are equal like in 2013. It will be amazing if you can do this.

Sorry for my bad english... I'm french :D

Congratulation and thanks for the giant job you done for SCII !

here you go
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0
unfortunately I didn't plan for adding flags to the end of links, so when you click on a link you'll have to add &use_aligulac=0 at the end again like
http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55&use_aligulac=0
this might be fixed some day, but I don't have time to fix that today

here's the top 25 Blizzcon Chances, WITHOUT USING ALIGULAC RATINGS
  1. kr HyuN (ROCCAT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5625
  2. kr MC, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5100
  3. kr TaeJa (Liquid), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 5000
  4. kr StarDust (mYinsanity), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4700
  5. kr Polt (CM Storm), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4575
  6. kr San (Yoe), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4425
  7. kr Zest (KT), is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4300
  8. kr Bomber, is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3600
  9. kr Life (StarTale), is at ~ 99.96 %, Min WCS Points: 3125
  10. kr Jaedong (EG), is at ~ 99.26 %, Min WCS Points: 2950
  11. kr jjakji (mYinsanity), is at ~ 83.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2850
  12. kr sOs (Jinair), is at ~ 71.97 %, Min WCS Points: 2450
  13. kr Classic (SKT T1), is at ~ 65.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2650
  14. kr soO (SKT T1), is at ~ 62.76 %, Min WCS Points: 2350
  15. kr Pigbaby (Jinair), is at ~ 48.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2200
  16. kr herO (CJ Entus), is at ~ 34.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2300
  17. no Snute (Liquid), is at ~ 33.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2550
  18. kr Rain (SKT T1), is at ~ 25.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2075
  19. kr viOLet, is at ~ 24.26 %, Min WCS Points: 2275
  20. kr MMA (Acer), is at ~ 17.04 %, Min WCS Points: 1975
  21. kr Solar (Galaxy), is at ~ 14.37 %, Min WCS Points: 1775
  22. kr INnoVation, is at ~ 12.69 %, Min WCS Points: 1725
  23. kr Flash (KT), is at ~ 10.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1375
  24. kr HerO (Liquid), is at ~ 10.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1950
  25. ca Scarlett (Acer), is at ~ 8.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1400


Thanks you're the best !!!!!!! Sad for Flash but Happy if Snute makes it like Naniwa last year... Or better ! :D
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