EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 17
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
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SuperHofmann
Italy1741 Posts
On September 01 2014 16:02 coverpunch wrote: Can someone list out the remaining events where it is possible to win WCS points? KeSpa Cup DreamHack Moscow DreamHack Stockholm WCS Eu/WCS Na/GSL Season 3 And I think that's it. | ||
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Wroshe
Netherlands1051 Posts
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
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GolemMadness
Canada11044 Posts
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Grovbolle
Denmark3815 Posts
On September 01 2014 20:24 GolemMadness wrote: Where can I see the points breakdown for different tournaments? Like in GSL how many points you get for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals, etc. Liquipedia | ||
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Boucot
France15997 Posts
On September 01 2014 20:24 GolemMadness wrote: Where can I see the points breakdown for different tournaments? Like in GSL how many points you get for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals, etc. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings#Point_System | ||
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orvinreyes
577 Posts
On August 31 2014 10:59 Die4Ever wrote: If he wins KeSPA Cup he only goes to ~ 45.54 % also ~ 6.54 % of the time Flash gets 1st in KeSPA Cup Flash wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro16 This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 64.28 % ~ 10.4 % of the time Flash gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Flash's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.58 % to ~ 87.03 % And I added a little new feature. In the events tables (on player pages, tournament pages, race pages, all those) you can filter by >80%, <20%, >90%, or anything like that in increments of 10. You could always sort by Blizzcon Chances to get a similar effect but then you get a lot of unlikely events at the top, so I figured this would be a little more convenient. Why not try it out on Flash's page? http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55 Cool stuff man! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 01 2014 17:50 Circumstance wrote: It just hit me: Since a player rather low in the point standings won IEM, and the rest of the Top 4 were all players basically guaranteed to make Blizzcon anyway, the point threshold has probably dropped, hasn't it? actually they went up, likely because middling players won good points like Life, Flash, and Snute. If the top 4 had been like Taeja, MC, Hyun, Polt then the WCS Point Cutoffs would've went down. Before IEM Toronto: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.98 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 47.48 % of the time 2,825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 85.1 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon After IEM Toronto: ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.21 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.43 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 75.82 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,775 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,800 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Thanks! Do note that example I gave is from before Flash won IEM, if he wins GSL now his chances actually go above 99%, so make sure to check out the website for up to date stats http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55 | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Here's the current Top 25 by Blizzcon Chances.
Snute is now in the top 16 most likely players, with his confirmation to DreamHack Moscow, knocking Rain out! + Show Spoiler [WCS Point Cutoffs] + ~ 0 % of the time 2,275 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.01 % of the time 2,300 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 0.3 % of the time 2,500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 50.52 % of the time 2,875 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 78.37 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 99.99 % of the time 3,700 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon This update also has Flash's new Aligulac rating which gave him a pretty nice boost, and I removed Placeholder Tournament 2 since we're getting closer to Blizzcon and no new tournaments are being announced. I will probably remove Placeholder Tournament 1 in October. Biggest Winners Since 1 Day Ago   Snute went up by ~ 22.88 %, going from ~ 14.71 % to ~ 37.59 %  MMA went up by ~ 6.19 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 19.38 % YoDa went up by ~ 3.89 %, going from ~ 8.42 % to ~ 12.3 % Flash went up by ~ 3.82 %, going from ~ 17.91 % to ~ 21.74 % Solar went up by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 7.16 % to ~ 8.08 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + Life went up by ~ 0.79 %, going from ~ 98.97 % to ~ 99.76 % Happy went up by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 0.52 % to ~ 1.24 %  Welmu went up by ~ 0.32 %, going from ~ 3.68 % to ~ 3.99 % Dear went up by ~ 0.17 %, going from ~ 0.12 % to ~ 0.29 % Golden went up by ~ 0.16 %, going from ~ 2.42 % to ~ 2.58 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 0.74 %Biggest Losers Since 1 Day Ago herO went down by ~ 5.6 %, going from ~ 48.75 % to ~ 43.15 % Classic went down by ~ 4.76 %, going from ~ 68.48 % to ~ 63.72 % viOLet went down by ~ 4.41 %, going from ~ 27.89 % to ~ 23.48 % soO went down by ~ 4.34 %, going from ~ 61.42 % to ~ 57.08 % Rain went down by ~ 3.72 %, going from ~ 30.31 % to ~ 26.59 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + Pigbaby went down by ~ 3.22 %, going from ~ 29.35 % to ~ 26.13 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.92 %, going from ~ 13.18 % to ~ 11.26 % sOs went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 84.55 % to ~ 82.75 % Scarlett went down by ~ 1.41 %, going from ~ 14.18 % to ~ 12.76 % HerO went down by ~ 1.38 %, going from ~ 7.03 % to ~ 5.65 % PartinG went down by ~ 1.19 %, going from ~ 8.57 % to ~ 7.38 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.01 %, going from ~ 12.06 % to ~ 11.05 % jjakji went down by ~ 0.98 %, going from ~ 91.57 % to ~ 90.6 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.87 %, going from ~ 8.54 % to ~ 7.67 % Maru went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 6.32 % to ~ 5.6 % Cure went down by ~ 0.45 %, going from ~ 1.49 % to ~ 1.04 % DongRaeGu went down by ~ 0.34 %, going from ~ 2.3 % to ~ 1.96 % Jim went down by ~ 0.29 %, going from ~ 0.89 % to ~ 0.6 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.28 %, going from ~ 2.38 % to ~ 2.11 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 5.47 % to ~ 5.2 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.27 %, going from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 2.42 % Nerchio went down by ~ 0.25 %, going from ~ 0.54 % to ~ 0.29 % Trap went down by ~ 0.11 %, going from ~ 0.15 % to ~ 0.04 %With the addition of the DreamHack Moscow player list, the chances of 1+ foreigners qualifying for Blizzcon went from ~ 51.29 % up to ~ 64.08 %, and the chances for 2+ foreigners went from ~ 9.33 % up to ~ 15.39 %. Foreign Hopes Snute ~ 25.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 37.59 % chance overall. Scarlett ~ 6.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 12.76 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 6.29 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 11.26 % chance overall. VortiX ~ 2.88 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 5.2 % chance overall. Welmu ~ 2.22 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 3.99 % chance overall. + Show Spoiler [More] + MajOr ~ 1.31 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 2.42 % chance overall. TLO ~ 1.05 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.89 % chance overall. HuK ~ 0.91 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.7 % chance overall. Happy ~ 0.7 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.24 % chance overall. MaNa ~ 0.41 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.74 % chance overall. Dayshi ~ 0.37 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.69 % chance overall. Jim ~ 0.28 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.6 % chance overall. Nerchio ~ 0.16 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.29 % chance overall. Bly ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Kas ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Serral ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. Grubby ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.02 % chance overall. BlinG ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Harstem ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. iaguz ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. neeb ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Sen ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. Miniraser ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. KrasS ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. puCK ~ 0.01 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 0.01 % chance overall. DreamHack Moscow Winning Chances YoDa has a ~ 11.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 % Life has a ~ 9.11 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % HyuN has a ~ 9.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 8.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Dear has a ~ 7.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + Snute has a ~ 6.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % First has a ~ 5.89 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Patience has a ~ 5.57 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Happy has a ~ 5.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % MMA has a ~ 5.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Golden has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Welmu has a ~ 2.68 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % TargA has a ~ 2.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Stork has a ~ 2.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Bly has a ~ 2.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Daisy has a ~ 2.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Kas has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % elfi has a ~ 1.7 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % BBoongBBoong has a ~ 1.35 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke has a ~ 0.84 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.8 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko has a ~ 0.58 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK has a ~ 0.39 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer has a ~ 0.37 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % CoolTea has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %DreamHack Moscow Winning Gains Snute would gain ~ 62.32 % if they win, with a ~ 6.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 99.92 % MMA would gain ~ 48.44 % if they win, with a ~ 5.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 67.81 % Solar would gain ~ 11.31 % if they win, with a ~ 8.01 % chance to win, going from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 19.39 % Welmu would gain ~ 8.8 % if they win, with a ~ 2.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 12.8 % YoDa would gain ~ 4.34 % if they win, with a ~ 11.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 16.65 %+ Show Spoiler [More] + Happy would gain ~ 3.16 % if they win, with a ~ 5.14 % chance to win, going from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 4.4 % Golden would gain ~ 2.76 % if they win, with a ~ 3.68 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 5.35 % Dear would gain ~ 2.26 % if they win, with a ~ 7.41 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.55 % Oz would gain ~ 0.65 % if they win, with a ~ 1.4 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.66 % First would gain ~ 0.6 % if they win, with a ~ 5.89 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.65 % Bly would gain ~ 0.53 % if they win, with a ~ 2.16 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.56 % Kas would gain ~ 0.49 % if they win, with a ~ 1.81 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.51 % Serral would gain ~ 0.4 % if they win, with a ~ 1.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.41 % Life would gain ~ 0.24 % if they win, with a ~ 9.11 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0.05 % if they win, with a ~ 5.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Daisy would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.12 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % Stork would gain ~ 0.01 % if they win, with a ~ 2.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.01 % CoolTea would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Revolver would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Adonminus would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % fraer would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.37 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Brat_OK would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.39 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % sLivko would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.58 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % LiveZerg would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Socke would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 0.84 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % BBoongBBoong would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.35 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % elfi would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 1.7 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % HyuN would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 9.06 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % TargA would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.46 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %DreamHack Moscow Top 50 Events (more here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=36 ) ~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 93.64 % ~ 10.38 % of the time Snute gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 72.7 % ~ 28.62 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 24.34 % ~ 16.11 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 80.15 % ~ 71.38 % of the time Snute doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.92 % + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 4.93 % of the time MMA gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 38.77 % ~ 33.78 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 61.64 % ~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.99 % ~ 28.05 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 55.11 % ~ 28.84 % of the time MMA gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 14.38 % ~ 66.22 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 25.34 % ~ 17.67 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.77 % ~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 34.2 % ~ 89.62 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 33.54 % ~ 71.95 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 30.78 % ~ 94.93 % of the time MMA doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 16.79 % ~ 71.16 % of the time MMA doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 21.4 % ~ 83.89 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 29.44 % ~ 37.6 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 26.1 % ~ 46.3 % of the time Snute gets 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 32.14 % ~ 53.7 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 42.31 % ~ 62.4 % of the time Snute gets 2nd or 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 44.53 % ~ 82.33 % of the time Snute doesn't get 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 36.06 % ~ 6.59 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 15.33 % ~ 5.73 % of the time Snute gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 88.62 % ~ 91.99 % of the time Solar doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.09 % ~ 95.07 % of the time MMA doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 19.37 % to ~ 18.37 % ~ 6.11 % of the time Solar gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 10.47 % ~ 4.97 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.83 % ~ 88.94 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 11.77 % ~ 43.32 % of the time Snute doesn't get 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 35.03 % ~ 56.68 % of the time Snute gets 4th or 8th or 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 37.6 % to ~ 39.57 % ~ 3.55 % of the time Welmu gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 5.82 % ~ 9.36 % of the time Happy gets 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 2.95 % ~ 28.86 % of the time Happy gets 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 0.56 % ~ 71.14 % of the time Happy doesn't get 16th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.51 % ~ 93.41 % of the time YoDa doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.31 % to ~ 12.09 % ~ 97.32 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.76 % ~ 92.59 % of the time Dear doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 0.1 % ~ 14.33 % of the time Happy gets 2nd or 4th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 3.25 % ~ 94.86 % of the time Happy doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.06 % ~ 93.89 % of the time Solar doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.08 % to ~ 7.92 % ~ 93.12 % of the time Snute doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 95.08 % ~ 95.03 % of the time Happy doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.24 % to ~ 1.1 % ~ 4.29 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.99 % ~ 96.32 % of the time Golden doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.58 % to ~ 2.48 % ~ 94.27 % of the time Snute doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.63 % to ~ 94.99 % ~ 6.29 % of the time Life gets 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.76 % to ~ 100 % ~ 96.45 % of the time Welmu doesn't get 2nd in DreamHack Moscow This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.01 % to ~ 3.93 % ~ 94.11 % of the time First doesn't get 1st in DreamHack Moscow This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.05 % to ~ 0.01 % I also removed Placeholder Tournament 2, and added the Final Seed Stats to player pages (here's Flash's page for an example http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=55 ) Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv ----------------------- | ||
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jarod
Romania766 Posts
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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GolemMadness
Canada11044 Posts
On September 01 2014 21:55 Boucot wrote: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series/Standings#Point_System Thank you! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 02 2014 06:52 SNSeigifried wrote: Die4Ever what would be snute's chances if he got round of 8 moscow round of 16 stockholm and cj hero and classic both get eliminated in round of 16 kespa cup??? That's too specific an event, WCS Predictor didn't catch it as something with a good mix of significance and likelihood. However I just made some tweaks to make it filter out dumb events better (Flash wins his next match in GSL and also wins GSL, they're good separate but together is just redundant), and keep track of way more events than before. Snute now has 912 events in his list! I also did the Dreamhack Moscow player updates and added in TRUE. Anyways let's take a shot at estimating the answer to your question. Here are some relevant events. ~ 17.34 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 44.61 % ~ 3.01 % of the time Snute gets 16th in DreamHack Stockholm This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 51.98 % (wow this helps more than I thought it would, because it's very unlikely due to no player listing I guess) ~ 43.13 % of the time Classic gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 43.38 % ~ 26.11 % of the time herO gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 43.47 % ~ 7.47 % of the time Snute gets 8th in DreamHack Moscow Classic gets 16th in KeSPA Cup This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 36.83 % to ~ 57.77 % Also the 8th and 16th places would bring Snute up to 2,925 WCS Points ~ 65.36 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon So let's start with that, 65.36%. Now time for some hand-waving lol. Snute's 8th place at Moscow combined with Classic's 16th place at KeSPA Cup gives a 13.16% increase over just Snute getting 8th at Moscow. There should be diminishing returns from multiple other players failing, so let's just say it gives half of the gain. So with our statistician-offending calculations we have 65% + 13% + 6% puts Snute at about 84% chances. This is some serious hand-waving, but I'm confident it would be somewhere between 70% and 90%. | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On September 02 2014 15:08 asongdotnet wrote: You could update the min points to include kespa cup, since all 16 are guaranteed 250 points the invited/seeded players don't get WCS Points if they lose in the first round, it's a rule for all of WCS, same thing they did for the GSL Global Championship "* Players must advance one round in order to claim WCS points for that placement. Being seeded through qualifiers counts as advancing one round." You can see that Sorry already has his 250 minimum WCS Points due to qualifying instead of being seeded. | ||
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Uxon
Italy4 Posts
I have two questions for you: 1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair. Thank you! | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
On September 02 2014 18:06 Uxon wrote: Die4Ever really great job! I have two questions for you: 1) Why did you use the Red Bull Washington tournament? According to liquipedia this isn't going to grant any wcs points. 2) I think it's very likely there will be no more wcs tournaments after kespa cup and the two dreamhacks. Then why keep the placeholder tournament? This fake tournament is increasing the chances of aligulac high-rated players, i don't think it's fair. Thank you! http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/about#global-events | ||
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