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TvZ Winrates with Mass Widow Mine - Page 9

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Account252508
Profile Joined February 2012
3454 Posts
April 08 2013 12:47 GMT
#161
--- Nuked ---
Umpteen
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom1570 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 12:59:56
April 08 2013 12:57 GMT
#162
On April 08 2013 15:33 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2013 14:10 dsjoerg wrote:
On April 08 2013 12:47 petered wrote:
A much better metric would be either percentage of army resources in mines


Great idea, thanks!

[image loading]

So here we are looking only at Master level TvZ games that made it to at least the 15:00 mark. And then we measure the resource value of widow mines in their army at that time, compared to the total resource value of their Active Army.

Mostly this data reinforces things that "everybody knows" about widow mines -- they don't suck, they're not necessarily OP, T loves em vs Z, especially at the high level. That 10-15% row is interesting and we should keep an eye on it as more data rolls in. If I were a betting man (and I am!), I'd bet on that row remaining the highest winrate, but for it to move closer to the rest.


I think you should put this data OP, it is revealing.


What's most interesting is that, ignoring how many widow mines they're making, Master level Terrans are winning nearly 58% of the games that go beyond 15 minutes.
The existence of a food chain is inescapable if we evolved unsupervised, and inexcusable otherwise.
Suikakuju
Profile Joined July 2010
Germany238 Posts
April 08 2013 12:57 GMT
#163
On April 08 2013 21:47 monkybone wrote:
This doesn't prove anything. It's basically showing that the widow mine is useful and that Zergs have not yet fully adapted to play against them.


Well with widow mines and medivac drops all over your base I think I adapted pretty well.....gg and tap out. In my opinion widow mine and medivac boost is to rewarding. I always die when it gets to the point that terrans can drop like 2 places and siege your base entrance
Laugh and the world laughs with you. Weep and you weep alone.
Suikakuju
Profile Joined July 2010
Germany238 Posts
April 08 2013 12:59 GMT
#164
On April 08 2013 21:57 Umpteen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2013 15:33 BronzeKnee wrote:
On April 08 2013 14:10 dsjoerg wrote:
On April 08 2013 12:47 petered wrote:
A much better metric would be either percentage of army resources in mines


Great idea, thanks!

[image loading]

So here we are looking only at Master level TvZ games that made it to at least the 15:00 mark. And then we measure the resource value of widow mines in their army at that time, compared to the total resource value of their Active Army.

Mostly this data reinforces things that "everybody knows" about widow mines -- they don't suck, they're not necessarily OP, T loves em vs Z, especially at the high level. That 10-15% row is interesting and we should keep an eye on it as more data rolls in. If I were a betting man (and I am!), I'd bet on that row remaining the highest winrate, but for it to move closer to the rest.


I think you should put this data OP, it is revealing.


What's most interesting is that regardless of how many widow mines they're making, Terrans are winning more than 50% of the games that go beyond 15 minutes.



haha yes it is time david kim takes some action and see those numbers rise to like 60%.....poor terrans
Laugh and the world laughs with you. Weep and you weep alone.
Blezza
Profile Joined June 2011
United Kingdom191 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 13:20:19
April 08 2013 13:06 GMT
#165
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran

Numbers refer to the statistics at the top of the OP.
Winners race > Other race I don't play > My race. How Twitch chat work in tournaments...
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
April 08 2013 13:08 GMT
#166
On April 08 2013 22:06 Blezza wrote:
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran

which is actually not that bad considering that 45-55 is pretty balanced
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Nekovivie
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom2599 Posts
April 08 2013 13:11 GMT
#167
On April 08 2013 22:08 opterown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2013 22:06 Blezza wrote:
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran

which is actually not that bad considering that 45-55 is pretty balanced


On faction winning 10% more games than the other is hardly balanced
If you are not supporting K-Pop you are hurting E-Sports.
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
April 08 2013 13:13 GMT
#168
On April 08 2013 22:11 Nekovivie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2013 22:08 opterown wrote:
On April 08 2013 22:06 Blezza wrote:
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran

which is actually not that bad considering that 45-55 is pretty balanced


On faction winning 10% more games than the other is hardly balanced

in 20 games, the matchup is 9-11. that's pretty good, i would say maps affect this balance a lottt more than the matchup itself
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Umpteen
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom1570 Posts
April 08 2013 13:14 GMT
#169
On April 08 2013 22:06 Blezza wrote:
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran



Sorry; with all the numbers flying about I don't know what you're referring to...
The existence of a food chain is inescapable if we evolved unsupervised, and inexcusable otherwise.
Ballack
Profile Joined April 2010
Norway821 Posts
April 08 2013 13:14 GMT
#170
It doesn't really indicate that they are OP, because there hasn't been enough time for zergs to figure out how to deal with them yet.
Just when I thought I was out, Blizz pulled me back in..
Umpteen
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom1570 Posts
April 08 2013 13:18 GMT
#171
On April 08 2013 22:11 Nekovivie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 08 2013 22:08 opterown wrote:
On April 08 2013 22:06 Blezza wrote:
616/961 x 49% + 345/961 x 59% = 52.59%

TvZ WR in masters HoTS = 52.59% in favour of terran

which is actually not that bad considering that 45-55 is pretty balanced


On faction winning 10% more games than the other is hardly balanced


The idea is that temporary swings of that much can occur without imbalance (a new strategy becoming popular, or an old one getting countered in a new or improved way). If it were 45-55 in favour of the same race consistently over a long period, that could be something worth investigating.
The existence of a food chain is inescapable if we evolved unsupervised, and inexcusable otherwise.
Aquila-
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
516 Posts
April 08 2013 13:26 GMT
#172
And now please the WoL winrates of TvZ when Zerg made Infestors...80%? Mediocre foreign Zergs were winning against top Korean Terrans left and right...
Decendos
Profile Joined August 2011
Germany1341 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 13:30:45
April 08 2013 13:26 GMT
#173
the problem is not mines being so strong, the problem is their counter units on the Z part just suck or come way too late.

this is especially true for hydras which should just get buffed since they literally suck in all MUs. roach hydra is viable in no MU because hydras still suck (and except being a bit faster they are literally 100% the same bad unit). give hydras 6 base range and instead of grooved spines another upgrade that: gives them 7 range or 20 more hp or a special ability, whatever. that would finally make hydras a unit that might not be completely wasted supply or money in midgame and make roach hydra more viable.

On April 08 2013 22:26 Aquila- wrote:
And now please the WoL winrates of TvZ when Zerg made Infestors...80%? Mediocre foreign Zergs were winning against top Korean Terrans left and right...


wow so people still argue "you were OP earlier now its our time again".,.especially after 2 rax without depot or 5 rax reaper letting T be OP the first year of WoL.

please stop arguing like that...it makes you look very stupid ^^
Blezza
Profile Joined June 2011
United Kingdom191 Posts
April 08 2013 13:29 GMT
#174
On April 08 2013 22:26 Aquila- wrote:
And now please the WoL winrates of TvZ when Zerg made Infestors...80%? Mediocre foreign Zergs were winning against top Korean Terrans left and right...


That is completely irrelevant to the subject at hand, learn to stop being so ignorant.
Winners race > Other race I don't play > My race. How Twitch chat work in tournaments...
ItsFunToLose
Profile Joined December 2010
United States776 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 14:33:46
April 08 2013 13:39 GMT
#175
On April 08 2013 10:06 BaaL` wrote:
Pretty big selection bias? Games where T is winning already are much more likely to have 10+ widow mines, as the pushes would not get shut down and so the mines never get mopped up.

A 10% difference is nothing really if you consider any statistical effects.



if i take a sample of 10,000,000 coin flips and it comes out 51.1%/48.9% then statistically that's a HUGE deal(P<0.00000001 to reject the null that the coin is fair). the sample size is directly related to how big of a deal the deviance from expectation is.

User was warned for this post

edited out the unnecessary insult. ;-(((
"skillshots are inherently out of your control whether they hit or not" -PrinceXizor
HellNino
Profile Joined September 2011
France156 Posts
April 08 2013 13:52 GMT
#176
So what you say is that the more AoE vs mostly ling-bling compositions the more chances to win?

That is sooooooo weird! @_@
26
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
April 08 2013 13:52 GMT
#177
On April 08 2013 21:47 monkybone wrote:
This doesn't prove anything. It's basically showing that the widow mine is useful and that Zergs have not yet fully adapted to play against them.


Wrong. It shows that I (random bnet user at plat) don't use enough widow mines in TvZ!
forsooth
Profile Joined February 2011
United States3648 Posts
April 08 2013 13:56 GMT
#178
That isn't surprising. Widow mines are good units, but also new and different from what Zergs are used to playing against. It'd be weird if widow mine usage wasn't helping Terrans win games. Still, if there's one new thing in HotS I'd definitely peg as not needing a nerf, it'd be the widow mine. It's definitely something that will get weaker as players adjust and learn more.
Razbu
Profile Joined November 2011
Croatia10 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 13:58:42
April 08 2013 13:57 GMT
#179
The thread is literally pointless...it's like me saying the games where terran builds less then 10 marines winrate is 40% and where terran builds more then 10 marines win rate is...well you get it... were your players going bio mine , were they going mech mine were they going pure mine??? all these things matter, attack timings etc etc

you can't really tell anything about the success of the unit or lack thereof by shear stats like this.
Besides we already know 1 mine can shot down 30+ lings so if you incorporate a good timing you can end the game with a bio push +2 mines...
STAND DOWN CAPTAIN !!!!!!!!!!
NEEDZMOAR
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Sweden1277 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-08 14:06:05
April 08 2013 13:58 GMT
#180
On April 08 2013 10:41 Greenwizard wrote:
Ok this is totaly stupid if you really think about it. If the terran has more then 10 wm means he probably has a big army too ( it's min 15 + ), means he is probably winning in macro or is at the same level , less chance for him to be loseing. If the terran has less then 10 wm means he has a smaller army or (has less wm) and we can conclude that his army is small and maybe behind.
When you compare these things is like ... win rates if the zerg has 10+ ultras or less , win rates if the terran has 8+ bcs after min 15. You compare the winrate of a race on the fact if he has a bigger or smaller army at a point in game, of the bigger army has a bigger win rate. It's retarded and stupid excuse to blame mines.



Consecrated copulate excrete...
+ Show Spoiler +
Thanks to Synonym.com for child-proofing my post.


I agree that the thread isn't really proving anything, but you cannot compare 10WM and the impact on a game with 10 ultras or 8 bcs or anything else that cost much more/harder to get/ harder to transition to, honestly, if T plays MMM+Mine, 10 mines isnt s big investment, neither does it take much time to produce...

+ Show Spoiler +
- People who make more Widow Mines, which are "harder units to use" (arguably), may be better simply because you have to have a certain level of skill to utilize Widow Mines effectively.


Gooby pls, Come on how is that even an argument...

This post isnt worth a lot without more statistics to back it up but I think we all can agree that by watching GM/pro zerg streaming, WM seems to be a problem which needs adressing in some way (unless we're all freaking stupid and some Korean zerg comes up with an easy way to deal with them)
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