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On May 04 2012 16:31 oZe wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 09:09 halfies wrote:
praetentious?
really?
i hope that how he spelt it too, because it would be really funny if he wrote this much about people being pretentious and used big words that he couldn't even spell. You don't even begin a sentence with a capitalized letter, made even more fun by the fact that it was "I". Thereby forfeiting all rights to complain about spelling. Also if you have a problem with his argument, attack his argument. In American English, spelt means exclusively a hardy wheat grown mostly in Europe, and the verb spell makes spelled in its past-tense and past-participial forms. Ps. I put my money on you being the creator of the bad boy ^^
i wasn't complaining about anything except how pretentious it is to spell pretentious like that for the reasons he does it. i don't care about the spelling aspect as much as the reasons for it, which also explains why i don't bother to capitalize everything properly on a forum, since it doesn't matter and is easier.
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His overly agressive tone notwithstanding, he actually made some excellent points, the most important of all being that what matters is the number of players, not the number of games. Also good points about all-in defense making the defending race "favored" in the next few minutes.
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I remember seeing Artosis post something similar before.. Yes people (and hence mods because mods are people right?) like seeing nice and simple graphs/figures/conclusions but I don't think TL has more of that than anywhere else.
On May 04 2012 21:23 halfies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 16:31 oZe wrote:On May 04 2012 09:09 halfies wrote:
praetentious?
really?
i hope that how he spelt it too, because it would be really funny if he wrote this much about people being pretentious and used big words that he couldn't even spell. You don't even begin a sentence with a capitalized letter, made even more fun by the fact that it was "I". Thereby forfeiting all rights to complain about spelling. Also if you have a problem with his argument, attack his argument. In American English, spelt means exclusively a hardy wheat grown mostly in Europe, and the verb spell makes spelled in its past-tense and past-participial forms. Ps. I put my money on you being the creator of the bad boy ^^ i wasn't complaining about anything except how pretentious it is to spell pretentious like that for the reasons he does it. i don't care about the spelling aspect as much as the reasons for it, which also explains why i don't bother to capitalize everything properly on a forum, since it doesn't matter and is easier.
The writer's pov was that people don't bother looking into details and try to talk about things they don't know much about. How is your post not proof of that.
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I agree to the point he is trying to make, that statistic is not something you can trow out without context. And it's true that's a science but what else do we have to try to check if the game is balance? I doubt that even blizzard can check every player if they are pushing it in their favor just by being good player.
Still think it's the best way to check the game.
PS: sorry for the mistake, english is not my primary language.
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Do I or most people probably like the way he went about that post, probably not at all.
Does he make some points that some people realized exist, but just largely ignore because of the 'not worth it' factor. By all means yes, that's the case.
Let me expound upon what I've said above so it's not misconstrued as to what I was getting at. The VAST majority of people who either A) Care about the game or B) Care about the competitive arena of the game, are on the overall pretty satisfied with the product. Though I'm sure someone can find a statistic that states otherwise 
I could make a long winded example, but I'll post the TLDR version of why most people fall under the 'not worth it' factor in regards to statistical posts.
1. The majority of people making a complaint based on a bias and statistics will not be swayed in their opinion. If they took the time to find a stat to try to prove a point, they are probably going to hold fast to that point and will die before the yield. That however, won't stop equally biased people for or against from arguing in a thread.
2. Most people realize someone posting statistics to make a point doesn't care if they are reading the stats wrong or right. They are trying to vent and make a point, so arguing with them will just make you go around in circles.
Overall I find his bashing of a particular community pointless, just as pointless as arguing with someone who has a clearly biased opinion on a matter. I wouldn't condone someone bashing on any community, by making a blanket judgment based on a very small statistical sample size to lump the whole community into it (see what I did there).
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I thought it was a very bad and mostly uninformative post. the OP admitted to not even knowing that much about statistics, and you can tell by what he writes.
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On May 05 2012 03:27 latan wrote:
I thought it was a very bad and mostly uninformative post. the OP admitted to not even knowing that much about statistics, and you can tell by what he writes.
Post isn't from the OP, post is quoted from a man on reddit.
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how about saying what we CAN get from the statistics and how things SHOULD be done instead of saying"this and this and this is bad".
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Drabzalver just created arbitrary fallacies and then disproved them. They don't even necessarily correlate to what we argue over.
Basically he's just smugly (or, one might say, "praetentiously") knocking down his own strawman arguments and then talking about how shitty TL is.
But now I'm glad to know that 1000 games of MKP vs. DRG doesn't define TvZ balance. Of course, he doesn't talk about how that particular example is nonsensical because it also necessitates how they'll learn each other's playstyles and the like (e.g. MKP's strategies don't represent all high-level Terrans' mindsets), and so Drabzalver's anecdote is pretty much garbage.
But his focus on how the common cause of a player winning two matches in a row 4-0 is that he's "fucking good" was so polished and well-spoken... I don't know how I could have missed such a revelation without it being pointed out to me by this guy.
I'm also glad I learned from him that 7 pools are quite rare though. And that Reddit really does live up to its reputation.
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Fallacy 1: Mostly true, but when you examine 3 months of data and average it, assuming there haven't been any major changes in metagame, maps, or patching, you can very easily draw conclusions about balance based on winrates alone. April/March/Februrary works pretty well.
Fallacy 2: Not true and plainly really dumb. Internationally, there are enough players in each race to balance out differences in player skill between races. In Korea, this may not be as true, but to claim that MKP alone will shift the balance of a matchup internationally is stupid. Nobody is that dominant in sc2.
Fallacy 3: Agree wholeheartedly, can't really control for build order/bo losses.
Its kind of academic now, as balance is very close to 50/50/50 internationally and nothing is really broken. Teamliquid just has some insane bias against protoss in pvt despite strong evidence contrary to popular beliefs.
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Hah, he calls out all the statistical bs perfectly. Maybe not in the kindest way, but he nailed it mostly. The TLPD non-korean chart is actually useful, and as SC2 progresses it will become much more accurate as the skill gap between players narrows.
This is also exactly why Blizzard is loathe to release a lot of numbers, because people have no idea what the hell they're looking at, and will make crap up perfectly to fit their answers.
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Seems like just another guy who is just full of him self and wrote a self masturbation post.. I like how he doesn't have a TL account and seemingly thinks he knows he smarter than 99% of everyone here bwahahaha.
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everyone that studied at least half year statistics knows that statistics that are used on this forums by players don't mean shit on balance why do you think there has do be done solid math/statistical hypotesis testing to do reliable deduction about balance.
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People need to stop complaining about the author's writing style and aggression and focus on the content. He is 100% about the use of statistics in the SC2 scene. They are worthless. They are actually worse than worthless because they give people the illusion of knowledge where none exists.
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The general points are good, the specifics are not and his conclusions are not. The statistics that people generally use to judge balance have lots of fallacies and are used in misleading ways to confirm prejudicial beliefs. They have lots of problems and aren't particularly informative. But the OP needs to provide a better alternative or even some other direction that we should go. Should we abandon trying to statistically analyze StarCraft altogether? Should everyone just STFU about balance?
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On May 05 2012 06:15 coverpunch wrote:
The general points are good, the specifics are not and his conclusions are not. The statistics that people generally use to judge balance have lots of fallacies and are used in misleading ways to confirm prejudicial beliefs. They have lots of problems and aren't particularly informative. But the OP needs to provide a better alternative or even some other direction that we should go. Should we abandon trying to statistically analyze StarCraft altogether? Should everyone just STFU about balance?
you can statistically analyze your own games, to draw conclusions (to understand your weaknesses to fix them)
Still has nothing to do with balance but just your results.
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Like the guy or not he's completely right, and this should be included as a disclaimer above any post talking about winrates.
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On May 05 2012 06:15 coverpunch wrote:
The general points are good, the specifics are not and his conclusions are not. The statistics that people generally use to judge balance have lots of fallacies and are used in misleading ways to confirm prejudicial beliefs. They have lots of problems and aren't particularly informative. But the OP needs to provide a better alternative or even some other direction that we should go. Should we abandon trying to statistically analyze StarCraft altogether? Should everyone just STFU about balance?
Sometimes admitting that there is no strong answer currently is the best option. If you haven't read Taleb's The Black Swan or Fooled By Randomness I really recommend it. The issue isn't just attempting to do statistical analysis with insufficient data and improper methods, but an overconfidence in the results and the blind acceptance by a mathematically inept community.
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Some pretty obvious shit everyone should know simply by employing some plain old common sense, and probably gets said in every single statistics thread. And then coupled with random bullshit. It should be titled what most people already know. Keep crappy reddit rants on reddit please.
What's even the point of arguing overall balance anymore? There isn't one. Whatever issues remain are marginal at best in the grand scheme of things.
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people study statistics for years, so that most people don't notice how far they stretched the stats in their favor. Otherwise statistics are fairly simple to read. But if people make graphs out of them and show you, they are fishy either way.
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EPT
