EPTWhat you don't know about statistics - Page 4
| Forum Index > SC2 General |
|
Bagration
United States18282 Posts
| ||
|
pOnarreT
155 Posts
On May 04 2012 12:41 figq wrote: I'm sure that's why he originally named his thread "What reddit does not understand about statistics" and posted it on reddit. Clearly all to do with TL. He got you | ||
|
Natespank
Canada449 Posts
| ||
|
Serpico
4285 Posts
On May 04 2012 12:55 Bagration wrote: He's quite the controversial character on r/sc as well, I've seen quite a few posts by him that buried by downvotes. He brings up a few good points, though it is interesting to see how he bears significant ill-will towards TL. All the "this isn't reddit/4chan" stuff I've seen here at times is a bit sanctimonious. When you see how many people have to get warned/banned all the time you realize TL isn't some shining center for civility. | ||
|
BraneSC2
United States123 Posts
| ||
|
Jumbled
1543 Posts
His claim that people are more likely to get away with a rubbish post if it's nicely formatted does have some credence, but it's hardly a damning indictment. | ||
|
TheRealDudeMan
United States213 Posts
| ||
|
AKomrade
United States582 Posts
There is too much overanalysis done with very little understanding of the way the game operates and the evidence generated from these experiments just fuels more race wars than solving anything. It isn't exclusive to TL however, and to be honest, if you're going to put some statistics you found anywhere, it'd be here, if for no other reason than the quality of the posters and admins relative to other sites. The TLPD stats too are just a summary of a wide range of talent across many games and many people treat them like they are the EXACT evaluation of ability and "race imbalance" when it is much more subtle than just simply who wins more. Its surprising how often people focus on the mathematical parts of Starcraft as rationalization for wins/losses when a good part of the game is based on things you can't measure like positioning, star sense, psychological advantages, etc. Cost effectiveness is a part of the game, obviously, but its blown so horribly out of proportion. Actually, a lot of this post is really reasonable and makes quite a bit of sense to me. Even his attitude is understandable when you read the comments on posts in the strategy forums and LR posts. Why are people so pissed? He isn't even really attacking TL. | ||
|
wuhan_clan
United States5609 Posts
On topic, the only real logical conclusion you can come to from the win/rate charts is this. If I select a random PvZ game from last month, the probability of selecting a game where P wins is x%, based on the chart (i don't know what it actually is, havent looked at the latest charts). Arguments can be made that certain win/loss rates might be some indication of balance but with so many factors involved (and no raw data), any kind of statistical analysis is pointless. Edit: win/loss rate can be used to identify a POSSIBILITY of an imbalance in a certain matchup but the actual win/loss rate stat is not evidence of any imbalance. | ||
|
MustNotSleep
United States8 Posts
MustNotSleep | ||
|
Schnullerbacke13
Germany1199 Posts
| ||
|
cristo1122
Australia505 Posts
For example medusa (this taken from liquidpedia) The original map was very difficult for Terran against Protoss; though the statistics do not appear terribly imbalanced at first glance (39-18 in favor of Protoss), they become much more damning once you realize that Flash went 7-1 against Protoss on the map, without which the statistics reduce to a dismal 38-11. if one were to take the overall winrate and use to form a complex argument about the balance on this map it would not take into account flash's skill (which btw is ridiculous) thus one can be given a false impression on the balance on the map as significant portion of the T wins are from a single player | ||
|
Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
| ||
|
Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
| ||
|
HyunA
Romania362 Posts
| ||
|
arbitrageur
Australia1202 Posts
A criticism of the use of statistics with PURE WORDS. If this was an assignment topic in a statistics subject at university you would get 0%. | ||
|
sandg
Australia123 Posts
I'm pretty sure when people see TLPD winrates they don't instantly assume balances/imbalances and take it as gospel, and I'm pretty sure that blizzard doesn't balance the game around statistics gathered from the pro-level. | ||
|
Cyx.
Canada806 Posts
| ||
|
SeaSwift
Scotland4486 Posts
http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/t5izg/what_reddit_does_not_understand_about_statistics/c4js5pq?context=3 There they are, if anyone wants to read them. Basically, he's just a uni drop out who was bad at stats. | ||
|
oZe
Sweden492 Posts
On May 04 2012 09:09 halfies wrote: praetentious? really? i hope that how he spelt it too, because it would be really funny if he wrote this much about people being pretentious and used big words that he couldn't even spell. You don't even begin a sentence with a capitalized letter, made even more fun by the fact that it was "I". Thereby forfeiting all rights to complain about spelling. Also if you have a problem with his argument, attack his argument. In American English, spelt means exclusively a hardy wheat grown mostly in Europe, and the verb spell makes spelled in its past-tense and past-participial forms. Ps. I put my money on you being the creator of the bad boy ^^ | ||
| ||
