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InfCereal
Canada1759 Posts
On January 08 2013 09:59 Chillyo wrote: The graph looks normal now, I wonder if I just didn't lose much MMR from the losses. If you didn't get any good games recently, it'll just be guessing. Once you get a good game, it will fix it. | ||
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Mavvie
Canada923 Posts
http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/7415516833?page=16#312 Cloaken wrote: Hey all - Just wanted to hop back in this thread and elaborate a bit on something Kaivax mentioned a few pages back. Over the course of the previous season the Masters League population strayed a bit above the ideal player distribution. Therefore, this season we made an adjustment to bring that back in line with our intended balance. We make tweaks like this occasionally as small variances are normal in a system like ours. And no - it doesn't mean the player base is shrinking. Best thing you can do is get out there, play games, and know that the system will rightfully put you in the appropriate ranking. Sorry if this has caused some of you a bit of frustration. If you're one of those who has been placed down into Diamond League, I bet you can jump back up into Masters with a bit of game time. Then, you can be confident knowing that your achievement is even more exclusive than it was previously. | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
On January 08 2013 10:49 Mavvie wrote: OK so Blizzard clarified that the masters offsets were changed, and not because player base decreased (seriously, this thread was fucking crazy) http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/7415516833?page=16#312 They changed master offsets because their player variation moves out of bell curve. Thats what i can see on the numbers. The reason for that is mostly but not always when your player-base shrinks. High MMR players stay, few low MMR player come but mid MMR players (the majority) leaves. So yes they changed it because they needed to adjusted the values. But they had to adjusted the values because they move out of bell. That is something that could screw up any skill calculation. They can change the offsets so the % is good again, but this fight the symptoms not the problem. However there is nothing on blizzard end to do against it. So the change is normal and expected. Obvious its still done poorly. You could do it the way that the normal user dont even notice the change in the offsets and you dont have big promotion / demotion waves. But for blizzard standards they did reasonable good. About blue post in generell: 1) they lie. 2) Often people post, who dont know much about the topic they post about 3) Mostly they just lie 4) if they say the truth they hide a big part of it If we would believe blue posts, we would never be able to back-calculate mmr! Because they publish wrong numbers and misinformation about used algorithm. So i stooped reading their statements long time ago. I check what they did and later look what they say they did. | ||
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sCCrooked
Korea (South)1306 Posts
They completely do a 180 in 1 page. This is why I never post on bnet. Their "authorities" mean nothing. | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12262 Posts
On January 08 2013 11:58 sCCrooked wrote: Its incredible how the first guy said flat-out "THERE IS NO BUG ITS YOU GUYS" and the second comes out and admits "Ok well it looks like you have enough threads that prove you can calculate that we changed the offsets so, yeah we did so that the player distribution amongst leagues stays where we want it". They completely do a 180 in 1 page. This is why I never post on bnet. Their "authorities" mean nothing. Skeldark is overly pessimistic but it's true that Blizzard responses about the ladder frequently omit the entire truth. Kaivax's post said it wasn't a bug and that they change the league populations when they don't fit their targets. That is true. The translation behind that is that they use a prior distribution and alter the MMR breakpoints based on the previous season, for example say last season 2% of the population was above 2123.25 MMR, and last season's actual Master breakpoint was 2000 (which meant like 5%). This season, if they want to go back to Master=2%, they would change the breakpoint to 2123.25 (and yes, they do go into the decimals for this, the breakpoints are extremely precise which is quite funny considering they're hidden). What Cloaken says doesn't disagree with Kaivax's post (so it's not a 180 at all), it just clarifies it further if you're reading from the context I described. I think the community managers tend to answer questions from the perspective of "I got demoted, why is this shit so buggy?" rather than "please explain in detail what happened with the large number of Master demotions, were the boundaries changed?" They probably think that the average player either doesn't know or doesn't care about how the ladder operates in detail, so their posts tend to omit that information. | ||
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ktimekiller
United States690 Posts
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Chillyo
United States70 Posts
On January 08 2013 10:17 InfCereal wrote: If you didn't get any good games recently, it'll just be guessing. Once you get a good game, it will fix it. I've had 100% opponent but only 75% player so far. | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
On January 08 2013 14:56 Excalibur_Z wrote: Skeldark is overly pessimistic but it's true that Blizzard responses about the ladder frequently omit the entire truth. Kaivax's post said it wasn't a bug and that they change the league populations when they don't fit their targets. That is true. The translation behind that is that they use a prior distribution and alter the MMR breakpoints based on the previous season, for example say last season 2% of the population was above 2123.25 MMR, and last season's actual Master breakpoint was 2000 (which meant like 5%). This season, if they want to go back to Master=2%, they would change the breakpoint to 2123.25 (and yes, they do go into the decimals for this, the breakpoints are extremely precise which is quite funny considering they're hidden). What Cloaken says doesn't disagree with Kaivax's post (so it's not a 180 at all), it just clarifies it further if you're reading from the context I described. I think the community managers tend to answer questions from the perspective of "I got demoted, why is this shit so buggy?" rather than "please explain in detail what happened with the large number of Master demotions, were the boundaries changed?" They probably think that the average player either doesn't know or doesn't care about how the ladder operates in detail, so their posts tend to omit that information. I can not calculate the offsets accurate enough to tell, but from the past i have the feeling the just put in round numbers. 300 350 400 ect. From sc2 rankings we can tell they dont even fit (last changed did not correct to 20 20 ... 2) OR they have a strange definition of "Active Players". But for random numbers they like to fill in strange one like 73 112.5, ect to make it harder to figure the system out. About their bnet posts: If you start lie in the beginning you have to keep going. Can you imaging the reaction if they post the truth: We hide your real ranking with a complex system because we think you are not man enough to face it. We have to correct the system from time to time because our player base moves away from bell curve. This makes it harder every season to calculate skill. The reason of this is that we loose our middle MMR player base. Also we do it a bad way so there are promotion/demotion waves. This season we did it again so that's the reason you got demoted However this is not a problem or a bug because leagues and demotion/promotions are meaningless any-ways... . Instead they say the lie / half true: We have to adjusted the system. The adjustment works great. So its no bug at all. If you call it lie or not, even if some of they try not to lie and talk around the topic, where is the point reading it? You dont find the information you are searching for in it. Even if you do, you still dont know for sure its a plain lie this time again. TLDR: just ignore blizzard comments. When it comes to blizzard games, blizzard itself is the most unreliable source. What they will bring with release/patch, what they plan to do, what system they use... Its never useful information. Wait what they do and judge by that but never from what they say. | ||
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IMScientist
Italy125 Posts
Keep up the good work, you do a amazing job i've been using the tool since the beginning. | ||
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Chillyo
United States70 Posts
On January 09 2013 18:20 Lucyan wrote: So did the offset change in lower leagues like platinum? Keep up the good work, you do a amazing job i've been using the tool since the beginning. It predicted my downfall to gold and replace in plat fairly well. Right now it says I'm half way to diamond, but I'll hold my breath until skeldark figures out the numbers. | ||
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goofyballer
United States136 Posts
2:47:45 -------------------------- 2:47:45 Game Start detected 2:47:45 Reading Memory ...OK 2:47:45 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles! 2:48:26 Webgrabber: Player false 2:48:28 Webgrabber: Opponent false 2:48:28 PRE-Trigger done 2:52:56 Webgrabber: Player false 2:52:58 Webgrabber: Opponent false 2:52:58 ERROR Start with bad player 2:52:58 ERROR Start with bad player 2:52:58 ERROR LASTCHECK : Both players invalid 2:52:58 Gamecheck: false 2:52:58 POST-Trigger done 2:52:58 Player-data-Qualitiy: 0% 2:52:58 Opponent-data-Qualitiy: 0% 2:52:59 OK Uploader: game uploaded 2:52:59 Ladder Game Done! 2:52:59 -------------------------- Notably in the game log, in both PRE/POSTPLAYER 1/2 (so, four times total) it says this: gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR and for both players in POSTPLAYER: Looses: -9999 bonus: 0 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 Let me know if there's any other info that would help, I just grabbed everything that looked useful while hopefully not making this too long. | ||
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IMScientist
Italy125 Posts
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Deleted User 245622
184 Posts
1) Maybe the promotion line is false 2) And/or you have not got a good game for a while so your mmr is not accurate  | ||
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CaliPark
United States20 Posts
Great tool btw - Skel, does mmrstats re-check Sc2ranks occasionally? Like for example, a week later reanalyze the potential MMR of opponents you've faced in the past? That could apply to this situation I guess. On January 09 2013 20:07 goofyballer wrote: Hi, I've been using this tool on my main account with no issues (thanks for the great work!), but trying it on a new bronze account I've been having problems. After every game it says "need a game with better data 0/X" on the main screen where X is the # of games I've played, and the log has errors: 2:47:45 -------------------------- 2:47:45 Game Start detected 2:47:45 Reading Memory ...OK 2:47:45 OK Found Memory-Profile in Active-Profiles! 2:48:26 Webgrabber: Player false 2:48:28 Webgrabber: Opponent false 2:48:28 PRE-Trigger done 2:52:56 Webgrabber: Player false 2:52:58 Webgrabber: Opponent false 2:52:58 ERROR Start with bad player 2:52:58 ERROR Start with bad player 2:52:58 ERROR LASTCHECK : Both players invalid 2:52:58 Gamecheck: false 2:52:58 POST-Trigger done 2:52:58 Player-data-Qualitiy: 0% 2:52:58 Opponent-data-Qualitiy: 0% 2:52:59 OK Uploader: game uploaded 2:52:59 Ladder Game Done! 2:52:59 -------------------------- Notably in the game log, in both PRE/POSTPLAYER 1/2 (so, four times total) it says this: gamedate: ERROR mapname: ERROR and for both players in POSTPLAYER: Looses: -9999 bonus: 0 change_points: -9999 adjusted_points: -9999 Let me know if there's any other info that would help, I just grabbed everything that looked useful while hopefully not making this too long. | ||
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Xetrael
Austria41 Posts
Am I on the right way and should keep playing or is there a mistake, because of the 0/2 thx me | ||
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Deleted User 245622
184 Posts
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leopardb
Germany92 Posts
On January 09 2013 23:37 CaliPark wrote: Sc2Ranks search function is down - so the check fails to pull up good results. I'm having the same issue. It worked before, only until Sc2Ranks messed up did this happen. The leagues haven't updated in over 24 hours and normally refreshing a player in that league refreshes the whole league but not at the moment. Oh well. Great tool btw - Skel, does mmrstats re-check Sc2ranks occasionally? Like for example, a week later reanalyze the potential MMR of opponents you've faced in the past? That could apply to this situation I guess. The plugin must have the info on your opponent right after the game : one week later it will have all changed :/ EDIT: damn, it would really make sense if, in HOTS, Blizzard would disclose the stats for the players playing on the ranked ladder : those want to compete, they need stats to monitor their progress ! i want to know my MMR without using complicated plugins when the value already exists there >_< | ||
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skeldark
Germany2223 Posts
I dont not use the website "sc2ranks" in any way or form! I work with the blizzard websites. So does sc2ranks. Because blizzard have right now bugs on their website, my program and sc2ranks have problems.... | ||
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leopardb
Germany92 Posts
On January 10 2013 01:19 skeldark wrote: I dont not use the website "sc2ranks" in any way or form! I work with the blizzard websites. So does sc2ranks. Because blizzard have right now bugs on their website, my program and sc2ranks have problems.... So chances are this won't last long, right ?  (ok ok you have no way to know  ) | ||
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Chillyo
United States70 Posts
On January 09 2013 21:07 Lucyan wrote: So finally i got promoted to Diamond \(^o^)/, but the mmr tool says i need 1350 mmr points, right now i have 1287 points,that's a big differences. I hope the new line is at 1287, I'm at 1160 :D | ||
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