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This is amazing data, your graphs line up with my general understanding of the pro scene too, especially this most recent Pros: Rate of losses to scrubs by Matchup. ZvP has always been the most volatile non-mirror matchup, Terran seems to be able to control terrain much better than Z and P therefore seemingly allowing more strategy and less randomness.
When SC2 released I knew we'd soon enough have enough game data under our belt to actually come out with data like this. With 21k games on Playhem you're certainly doing that very well!
Just beautiful information, I look forward to the next number-crunch installment!
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What I find remarkable is that right after PvP we have all three zerg matchups. As a zerg player myself, I'd say that is because zerg is most susceptible to cheese, and there's always the possibility of protoss or terran coming back from a disadvantage with their cost effective death balls.
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On March 11 2012 19:51 Scorch wrote: What I find remarkable is that right after PvP we have all three zerg matchups. As a zerg player myself, I'd say that is because zerg is most susceptible to cheese, and there's always the possibility of protoss or terran coming back from a disadvantage with their cost effective death balls.
wut terran deathball, what's that ?
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I love the stats. The ratios aren't even that bad compared to real sports. Even PvP.
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On March 11 2012 20:55 zezamer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 19:51 Scorch wrote: What I find remarkable is that right after PvP we have all three zerg matchups. As a zerg player myself, I'd say that is because zerg is most susceptible to cheese, and there's always the possibility of protoss or terran coming back from a disadvantage with their cost effective death balls. wut terran deathball, what's that ?
Mech
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Nice analysis, maybe you could use TLPD to get a definition of "pro" players?
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On March 04 2012 12:25 Shiori wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 12:18 sc14s wrote:On March 04 2012 12:06 orangesunglasses wrote: pvp is a bad matchup as is some zvz so that makes sense
tvt is the best matchup in game and thus is the best stat wise here your bias is showing a wee bit. I'm Protoss and I agree. PvP is god-awfully bad and has an unshakable coinflip feel to it. It's like there's a cycle of builds that blind counter other builds, and you just roll whatever one you're most comfortable playing. Lategame PvP is downright stupid, what with mass Colossi/MS butting heads. Complete a-move.
I'm random, but PvP is one of my favorite matchups of all of the matchups, not just mirror matches. It's not that PvP is a coinflip, because it's not. It is however the most unforgiving all the matchups. Even a single mistake of losing a single stalker at the wrong time can mean death, and as an observer it is nailbitingly intense to watch. As a player, achieving a victory in PvP is difficult and challenging, sometimes aggravating, but extremely gratifying. Knowing that you played your best game and made as few mistakes a possible to be able to out-protoss another protoss is satisfying.
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Keep up the good work, I love seeing stats like this. I think it's interesting that the three matchups with the lowest % are all vs Terran. Is the notion of Terran being a race full of surprise moves that can topple a superior player wrong?
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Interesting stuff...
From terran PoV it seems like when playing against a better player, terran is the worst race. It's kinda funny since players all-in/cheese a lot in these situations. That said, it looks like terran all-ins/cheeses are the weakest out of all races, which many people wouldn't agree on.
Maybe it has something to do with the execution? The more micro-intensive your all-in is, the harder it is to pull off against someone better than you. Even the earliest viable terran all-ins such as bunker rush take quite a lot of control to work.
Or maybe the way the pros are measured is just flawed.
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I read this chart as: "If you're Terran and not pro, you're pretty f*cked."
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On March 04 2012 12:18 sc14s wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 12:06 orangesunglasses wrote: pvp is a bad matchup as is some zvz so that makes sense
tvt is the best matchup in game and thus is the best stat wise here your bias is showing a wee bit.
He's right though? In TvT the better terran will win, usually ^_^
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I would love it if playhem had an invite only tourney of somesort that was a series of bo3 at the end of each week with the final match being a bo5.
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On March 11 2012 21:41 Fyrewolf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 12:25 Shiori wrote:On March 04 2012 12:18 sc14s wrote:On March 04 2012 12:06 orangesunglasses wrote: pvp is a bad matchup as is some zvz so that makes sense
tvt is the best matchup in game and thus is the best stat wise here your bias is showing a wee bit. I'm Protoss and I agree. PvP is god-awfully bad and has an unshakable coinflip feel to it. It's like there's a cycle of builds that blind counter other builds, and you just roll whatever one you're most comfortable playing. Lategame PvP is downright stupid, what with mass Colossi/MS butting heads. Complete a-move. I'm random, but PvP is one of my favorite matchups of all of the matchups, not just mirror matches. It's not that PvP is a coinflip, because it's not. It is however the most unforgiving all the matchups. Even a single mistake of losing a single stalker at the wrong time can mean death, and as an observer it is nailbitingly intense to watch. As a player, achieving a victory in PvP is difficult and challenging, sometimes aggravating, but extremely gratifying. Knowing that you played your best game and made as few mistakes a possible to be able to out-protoss another protoss is satisfying.
No, sorry. I don't know what level you play at, but its coinflippy as hell. Its just that its unforgiving on top of that again. You have to guess and insinuate what you opponent is doing. Try coming back from a robo build when you opponent is going phoenixes for instance. And even if you are somewhat prepared for it, you will have no idea if your opponent is planning an allin with those phoenixes, or has taken an expansion. Both of which you will need completely different answers for.
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Very interesting stat. What I would find interesting is to see with which strategies a non-pro player has the highest probability to win against a pro (e.g. 4-Gate, Baneling Bust). I know that's hard to extract automatically, but maybe it can be done with some simplifications/heuristics. It would also be nice to see if games where a non-pro wins against a pro are shorter on average than other games.
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Excludos, if you went robo you will at the last have an observer and a scouting advantage (by the time you see the phoenixes, so at the very least you should know exactly when his expansion goes down (if it does). That doesn't mean you'll necessarily survive the phoenixes, but scouting shouldn't be your problem!
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On March 12 2012 00:37 alQahira wrote: Excludos, if you went robo you will at the last have an observer and a scouting advantage (by the time you see the phoenixes, so at the very least you should know exactly when his expansion goes down (if it does). That doesn't mean you'll necessarily survive the phoenixes, but scouting shouldn't be your problem!
If he makes it as his natural, makes no canons, and doesn't make a robotics himself. Yes, you will spot the expansion going down.. And like you said, that still doesn't mean you'll even survive long enough for that to even happen.
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Well, if he is going stargate plus robo or cannons, and you're not going DTs, then we're not talking about super high level play here, are we, which is the topic of discussion.
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On March 04 2012 11:52 ZeroTalent wrote: In non-mirror matches, Protoss is overall the weakest race (both Z and T are above 50% vs P), while Terran is the strongest race.
Sounds familiar.
BTW. It's not really randomness in mirrors. There is just less room for mistakes in PvP and ZvZ, thus minor factors can have great influence on the outcome of the game. Most of the time it's engagements and the fact that unsafe styles of play are relatively strong.
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On March 12 2012 01:05 alQahira wrote: Well, if he is going stargate plus robo or cannons, and you're not going DTs, then we're not talking about super high level play here, are we, which is the topic of discussion.
What? Phoenixes + immortal is pretty much standard by now.. Its so incredibly strong I personally have no idea how to react to it.
edit: I am talking about high lvl play here. If you stay on only stargate the entire game, you're either allin or you don't know how to play phoenixes. And canons is pretty much standard when expanding with a phoenix build.
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On March 12 2012 01:09 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 01:05 alQahira wrote: Well, if he is going stargate plus robo or cannons, and you're not going DTs, then we're not talking about super high level play here, are we, which is the topic of discussion. What? Phoenixes + immortal is pretty much standard by now.. Its so incredibly strong I personally have no idea how to react to it.
After you get blink as a response to phenixes, the 2 base chargelot/archon (with 6+ gates) with blink stalkers to snipe optional colossi works very well, unless they make wall of buildings in time, but you can just expand then. It's pretty much hard counter.
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