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On March 12 2012 01:10 -Kira wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2012 01:09 Excludos wrote:On March 12 2012 01:05 alQahira wrote:
Well, if he is going stargate plus robo or cannons, and you're not going DTs, then we're not talking about super high level play here, are we, which is the topic of discussion. What? Phoenixes + immortal is pretty much standard by now.. Its so incredibly strong I personally have no idea how to react to it. After you get blink as a response to phenixes, the 2 base chargelot/archon with blink stalkers to snipe optional colossi works very well, unless they make wall of buildings in time, but you can just expand then.
The key word you used was "2 base"..which is pretty much what we have been talking about in the last few posts.
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On March 11 2012 19:51 Scorch wrote:
What I find remarkable is that right after PvP we have all three zerg matchups. As a zerg player myself, I'd say that is because zerg is most susceptible to cheese, and there's always the possibility of protoss or terran coming back from a disadvantage with their cost effective death balls.
What..? ZvT is the 3rd least volatile and PvZ is more volatile than ZvP. Not sure what you're looking at.
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United States341 Posts
On March 04 2012 11:52 ZeroTalent wrote:![[image loading]](http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7067/6804589646_e793255ce1_z.jpg) Playhem: Rate of Pro Losses to Scrubs by niq77174, on Flickr Consistent conventional wisdom, PvP is the most "random" of the matchups. A Protoss Pro is only a 3-1 favorite against a Protoss Scrub, while a Terran Pro is an 8-1 favorite over a Terran Scrub. ZvZ is also somewhat random; 5.5-1 favorite vs an average 6.5-1 favorite across all matchups.
Can't anyone in the world just learn to do math correctly? The only proportion you got right was the one that was 25%, nice and easily cut into 4ths, holy crap. Math lesson time.
If someone has a 25% chance to win, their chance is equivalent to 1 in 4 parts, so there are 3 parts that they will lose, so 1:3 that they will win, get it? You got that one right.
If someone has an 18% chance to win, then they will win 1 in 5.5 parts. This does NOOOOT mean that their ratio to win is 1:5.5. There are 4.5 parts that they will lose, so the ratio is 1:4.5. An easier (read: less steps) process to doing this is just dividing the chance that they have to lose (82%) to the chance that they have to win (18%). This will give you 4.5, which is the proportion 1:4.5 of how often the scrub will win.
Jeez.
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Awesome stats <3
Playhem stats is one of the best thing that has happened to TL forums 
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On March 12 2012 01:27 K3Nyy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2012 19:51 Scorch wrote:
What I find remarkable is that right after PvP we have all three zerg matchups. As a zerg player myself, I'd say that is because zerg is most susceptible to cheese, and there's always the possibility of protoss or terran coming back from a disadvantage with their cost effective death balls. What..? ZvT is the 3rd least volatile and PvZ is more volatile than ZvP. Not sure what you're looking at.
Oh you're right, the matchups go in both directions. I just saw three matchups involving zerg at #2-4 and derped. Never mind.
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I don't want to sound snippy, but there's been a disappointing trend in statistics topics on TL where people don't bother trying to estimate statistical significance when comparing means between groups. Without an analysis of significance here, it's actually impossible to know if any of the differences or trends you describe are real.
Please, at least attempt to estimate how significant your results are! I understand it's incredibly easy to just calculate averages and convince people that there's a meaningful result here, but you're not really doing anybody any favors by (unintentionally) misleading people in this way.
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On March 04 2012 11:52 ZeroTalent wrote:
Why are PvP and ZvZ so random? Why is TvT so not random? Of the non-mirror matches, why is ZvP the most random? I have no idea what the answers to these questions are. Any conjectures?
First of all, thank you for these stats, they are very insightful!
I can´t say that much about P and Z since i play Terran, but it seems to me, that both Zerg and Protoss have several major disadvantages compared to terran, especially in the early/early-mid game.
1)
Terrans have marines 
Marines and marine/marauder are good against pretty much everything in the early game. They are cheap, quickly build and have a lot of dps. on top of that, they scale very good with upgrades (stim, combat shields, weapon/armor upgrades and medivac heal). So its very unlikely to die to something unexpected.
2) scans
If all scouting fails for a terran, he can almost always scan. That helps a lot to identify some all in/cheese.
3) addon switching
tech switches are very fast for a terran. All he has to do (in most cases) is to switch the addons of the buildings.
Need some tanks? Take tech lab on your your fax and start production immediatly! Need more marines? Take a reactor on the rax a.s.o....
4)M.U.L.E.S.
Even when your economy is behind your oponents, mules help you to come bach into the game. As long mules "are" energy on the orbital, you cannor kill them as long as you dont kill the orbital, which is quite hard in early game. Therefore, mules excuse mistakes of a terran player much more than chrono and especially larva inject. They allow you to play an all in with scvs and still not be completely all in. Again, this is an ability, that buys time for a terran in all match ups.
all in all, i think terrans have more/easier to use tools for a better player/pro to not die in the early and mid game. That helps to get to a phase of the game where the pro can benifit from his/her better mechanics/macro/micro/multitasking.
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On March 12 2012 21:32 CaptainApe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 11:52 ZeroTalent wrote:
Why are PvP and ZvZ so random? Why is TvT so not random? Of the non-mirror matches, why is ZvP the most random? I have no idea what the answers to these questions are. Any conjectures? First of all, thank you for these stats, they are very insightful! 3) addon switching tech switches are very fast for a terran. All he has to do (in most cases) is to switch the addons of the buildings. Need some tanks? Take tech lab on your your fax and start production immediatly! Need more marines? Take a reactor on the rax a.s.o....
No. Terrans have the worst tech switching. Zerg can mass produce as soon as their tech building is up and Protoss can warp in what they need at will. Also Terran upgrades are the most separated between infantry, mech and air, which also hampers techs switches.
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This is what I've been telling people for soo long. A lot of pros play terran because we have the most reliable MUs. Where other races and their matchups have more luck involved.
Even tho it's clear that T pros have a harder time beating Z and P scrubs than P Z pros have beating T scrubs. Tells a lot about the game kekeke.
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On March 12 2012 21:32 CaptainApe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2012 11:52 ZeroTalent wrote:
Why are PvP and ZvZ so random? Why is TvT so not random? Of the non-mirror matches, why is ZvP the most random? I have no idea what the answers to these questions are. Any conjectures? First of all, thank you for these stats, they are very insightful! I can´t say that much about P and Z since i play Terran, but it seems to me, that both Zerg and Protoss have several major disadvantages compared to terran, especially in the early/early-mid game. 1) Terrans have marines Marines and marine/marauder are good against pretty much everything in the early game. They are cheap, quickly build and have a lot of dps. on top of that, they scale very good with upgrades (stim, combat shields, weapon/armor upgrades and medivac heal). So its very unlikely to die to something unexpected. 2) scans If all scouting fails for a terran, he can almost always scan. That helps a lot to identify some all in/cheese. 3) addon switching tech switches are very fast for a terran. All he has to do (in most cases) is to switch the addons of the buildings. Need some tanks? Take tech lab on your your fax and start production immediatly! Need more marines? Take a reactor on the rax a.s.o.... 4)M.U.L.E.S. Even when your economy is behind your oponents, mules help you to come bach into the game. As long mules "are" energy on the orbital, you cannor kill them as long as you dont kill the orbital, which is quite hard in early game. Therefore, mules excuse mistakes of a terran player much more than chrono and especially larva inject. They allow you to play an all in with scvs and still not be completely all in. Again, this is an ability, that buys time for a terran in all match ups. all in all, i think terrans have more/easier to use tools for a better player/pro to not die in the early and mid game. That helps to get to a phase of the game where the pro can benifit from his/her better mechanics/macro/micro/multitasking.
I don't think you understand the game beyond your bias.
1) That's true in some cases, but the poll shows that P and Z pros have an EASIER time playing against T scrubs than T have against P and Z scrubs meaning that marines are not only not OP (or if they are other factors make them the only thing keeping Terran alive) and that something else must be keeping alive P and Z early game against the in your eyes invincible marines soo giving marines to P and Z would not make their mirrors less random (Remove the warp and give zerg a few more years to focus on ZvZ(and yeah literally years because that MU is so hard early game))
2) I agree that keeps Terran alive in TvT, but it must not be the only reason in TvZ and TvP because SOMEHOW P and Z have it better without scan. Soo again better scouting would fix PvP, but in ZvZ you pretty much know what's coming with overlord spread again it's just such a hard MU people need a lot of time for it.
3) Defending early pressure this only counts if you 1/1/1 and that's not a good eco build soo that's just bullshit and as I've said 2 times now this must somehow Z and P are pretty okay without this against worse players.
4) It's a mechanic for gods sake they removed their effect on gold so stop complaining about mules. I hate delusional people who believe Mules are somehow an answer to everything. If protoss chronos enough to get a 8 probe lead (this usually happens about a 6-8 probe lead for protoss and building the orbital gives protoss a 2 probe lead anyway) terran and protoss are on even ground. A mule equals the mining of 4 probes and if done correctly there should be 1 mule per OC so they P and T should be equal. Soo when you see a terran all in with 12 SCVs and he has 8 SCVs left at home that means he sacrificed 50% of his economy and he knows that if you want to come out ahead you have to end up with a 5 probe advantage (assuming you have an equal army count at the end)
If anyone wants to disagree go ahead just don't do it in a stupid manner.
Edit: I want to clear this up I'm not saying T is UP I'm just saying that giving what Terran has to Protoss and Zerg won't fix their MUs. Remove warp and obviously buff T1 units because there is no warp (PvP fixed) give more time to zerg (ZvZ fixes itself eventually). I've got no idea how to fix PvZ tho.
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I think a lot of this might have to do with how easily one race can side step the other races' defenders advantage.
Just a thought on one contributor to the three most Scrub favored match ups, and three most Pro favored match ups.
PVP
Warpates
ZVZ
Lings are fast and banelings can be morphed in anywhere
PVZ
Warpgate again, but forcefields also help a lot in removing the Zergs ability to reinforce even when he is in his own base
--------------------------
TvT
Tanks are great defense..
Tanks and Mech are slow...
PvT
Again tanks are great defense
ZvT
Again Tanks?
Seems all three of the least Scrub favored matches are against Terran
By having a stronger defenders advantage or one which you cannot reduce its effectiveness enough forces the game to go longer and forces more mistakes. Pros make less mistakes, in say PvP a loss will be caused by less mistakes than a TvT, the more mistakes you have to make the less likely that the pro will make that many first.
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On March 25 2012 22:22 lolphind wrote:
PvT
Again tanks are great defense
Whaaaaaa. Since when are tanks used in PvT.
Here is something interesting
MLG winter arena
1st place MKP
2nd place DRG
3rd place Huk
MLG winter championship
1st place MKP
2nd place DRG
4th place Huk
ohh and Arena MKP 4-2 DRG Championship MKP 5-2. That's pretty consistent isn't it?
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On March 04 2012 13:26 GhostFall wrote:I believe this picture explains how mirrow matchups work + Show Spoiler +The defensive building is normally tied to the teching build for Terran and Zerg. Without bunkers or sunkens, ZvZ and TvT would be very similiar to PvP. But because cannons are tied to the forge, we have many build order wins/losses. Starcraft BW got around this problem by having the shield battery, a weaker defensive building tied to the teching building - the gateway. You need to get a defender's advantage from somewhere. ZvZ really is a knife fight. Even if you're better with a knife you're still on a razor's edge. Plus, the level of execution you need is very high, so among lower level players, it's essentially a luck based matchup.
oh my god this image is amazing, thank you.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/YWnCb.jpg)
