Patch 1.4.3 - Preview Blog - Page 122

On February 11 2012 12:14 Jormundr wrote:
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From : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=309042
This is taken from a sample size of 102 TvZ matchups
Since this was taken from MLG Providence, I will assume that this sample is almost entirely representative of the top 2% of players (masters and grandmasters).
This graph provides evidence that ghosts do not 'counter' tier 3 zerg. Considering the whole broodlord infestor vs ghost marine tank viking dance usually starts at or after 20 minutes, why were terrans not winning here? I am pretty sure that snipe efficiency was figured out pretty well this summer (when we first started to see MVP using it profusely, especially against ultralisk comps).

So;
Question: If ghosts are so strong, why didn't terrans have a positive win-rate after the 20 minute mark?
Answer: Ghosts are incredibly expensive, and require tech lab rax instead of reactor rax (important in a marine dominated matchup)

Ghosts actually happen to be the most expensive unit per supply in the terran arsenal (I would argue that 2 supply makes them too easy to mass in TvZ, but 3 supply would have too massive of an effect on TvP)
For example, to build the scary ball of ghosts that "counters zerg t3" (as I have read over and over again in this thread)
I will assume that they mean a ball of:
15 Ghosts 25 ghosts
3000 minerals 5000 minerals
1500 gas 2500 gas
30 supply 50 supply
120 to 200 seconds* 200 to 330 seconds*



* note that the first value corresponds to the mad terran player who just happens to have 5 tech lab rax on hand. Second number is for a terran who has 3. 5 tech lab rax would be slightly unusual in a matchup that is marine dominated

So without the ghost, what do you suggest to counter broodlord corruptor infestor?
m̶a̶r̶i̶n̶e̶s̶ 1 full energy infestor can kill 35 marines, with enough energy left for two infested terrans. OVERPOWERED, I DON'T LIKE IT, COUNTERS TERRAN T1, NEEDS A NERF (etcetera)
̶t̶h̶o̶r̶s̶ 4 broodlords kill 4 micro'd thors with 2 full health broods left
v̶i̶k̶i̶n̶g̶s̶ - 8 corruptors kill 8 vikings with 1 corruptor left (no micro, no corruption)
b̶a̶t̶t̶l̶e̶c̶r̶u̶i̶s̶e̶r̶ - I tested 4 cruisers (24 supply, 1 arm, 1 leg,) vs 8 corruptors - 1 battlecruiser lives with 57/550 hp. SAVED
r̶a̶v̶e̶n̶ - 13 ravens with HSM kill 8 broodlords (if you use 125 energy each)
all of these were done with equal upgrades

The problem is that broodlord + corruptor + infestor has a ridiculous advantage in the air battle already. corruptor broodlord is better than terran anti air in a straight up fight. Corruptors are also easier to produce en masse (see larvae) which gives them the ability to take momentum in the air battle much more quickly than a terran with 2-3 reactor ports. Also note that zerg air will generally have both armor and attack upgrades, whereas terran air will at best have attack upgrades, because there is no terran air endgame ball that is effective in tvz.


TL;DR
Without ghosts, terrans have no answer to zerg air superiority because - wait for it - ZERG AIR IS SUPERIOR

On February 11 2012 11:42 Vertical wrote:

because our BC's is not as viable as those...


zerg is the only race that has a viable T3
carrier, mothership, BC's all is only an overkill strategy




PATCH 1.6.2 preview !!!
TERRAN REMOVED FROM SC II !!!

On February 11 2012 11:43 KJSharp wrote:
High Diamond Terran Player.

I have been struggling mightily against Zerg in general. My win% against Z is around 35-40% in ladder games for the past 2 seasons. Essentially if the game goes longer than 18 minutes, I lost roughly 90% of the time. I believe my problem is largely due to the fact that I haven't gotten enough ghosts, but have invested heavily in marauders when my opponent went Ultralisk and vikings when my opponent went Brood lords. Then, when my opponent tech switched to the other, I was fucked and ended up losing. Over the past few weeks, I have been trying to incorporate ghosts into my late-game TvZ more. Now though, I don't see a point. Terran has no ability to "tech switch" as rapidly as Zerg. That's why the ghost was such a necessary unit - it was the only unit that would aid in the fight against both ultralisks and broodlords. Now, it seems, Blizzard is expecting Terran to tech switch as quickly as Zerg can.

In light of this patch, perhaps Blizzard needs to give Terran a fusion core upgrade that turns all tech labs and reactors into "tech reactors" like in the campaign. Then we could tech switch rapidly and have a chance against Zerg. I find it so unfair that if the Terran and Zerg have played an even match up until the 18 minute mark, that all of a sudden it becomes impossible for the Terran to win. Thanks Blizzard!

It is so sad. I logged on today and was playing a zerg friend, testing the new ladder maps Korhal Compound and Cloud Kingdom. I just couldn't bring myself to care about the game. Normally I'm on the edge of my seat, trying really hard, trying to win, but tonight I was just lethargic. I had to apologize to him because I could tell I wasn't giving him good games and was just wasting his time. The games just didn't seem worth playing. I play a macro style because that is the style the ladder maps intentionally encourage, but I don't think I can play macro games against Zerg anymore. Throughout the game, my heart just sank. I know the patch hasn't even come out yet, but it doesn't matter psychologically since I know it will come. If this change becomes permament, I suppose I'll have to change races or quit the game and move on to another game. I 've been waiting for a FPS game like UT2004 to come out, but none have. Oh well, one can only hope.

On February 11 2012 12:58 DemigodcelpH wrote:


Your bias is showing. Enjoy your free 70-80% ZvT late game winrate as evidenced by the solid statistics in Jormundr's chart.

On February 11 2012 13:11 Ziggitz wrote:


This has been discussed to death already but you appear to be a little slow so I'll repeat it for you.

A higher win rate in the late game is NOT evidence that Zerg have an advantage in that period of the game. When Terran gain a big enough advantage they win the game then and there or if they inflicted massive damage but lost most of their army they win it 2 minutes later. When Zerg completely crushes a Terran's two base timing attack and takes a third while getting a 25 worker lead, they win the game 10 minutes later because they lack the tools to win the game right away like Terran does have. In a 20 minute game a Zerg might have taken a decisive lead at the ten minute mark when the Terran botched a timing attack and fell 60 food behind.

The earlier in the game you are analyzing the higher the precision with which you can gauge the balance of the match up for that particular moment. As you get into the late game certain patterns skew data and a lot of noise is introduced as players do not reach each stage of the game on equal footing. A significant number of games in ZvT reach the late game with Terran far behind because he made a timing attack that would decide the game earlier on, except instead of the game lasting the same relative length of time depending on who would win, if the Terran wins the game ends almost immediately, if the Zerg wins the game goes on a lot longer.

Please stop quoting statistics you don't understand.

On February 11 2012 12:48 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:


Um no sorry vikings own everything in the air o.o

Also keep in mind other factors will effect such a graph. For example, games where a terran does an all-in and fails but stays in the game past 20 minutes will make the graph look like what it is now. It could just be that a like event happens more than the opposite (a macro terran getting past 20 minutes)