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Win Rates by Race & Length of Game - Page 7

Forum Index > SC2 General
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[17]Purple
Profile Joined October 2011
United Kingdom3489 Posts
February 11 2012 10:02 GMT
#121
I see the low Terran win rate in the late game as a sign that most of them actually play risky strategies that is intended to kill their opponents at the 10-15 minute mark, but they just last so much longer compared to other races.

As an example, a Terran 1-1-1 against a Protoss (I can't site an example right now) would be very effective and can kill of the Protoss at the 14 minute mark if the Protoss doesn't defend properly. However when the contain is broken and Terran retreats, they still stay in the game despite having a very distinct disadvantage of going for a strategy that was intended for an mid game kill but did not work.

I might be completely wrong though and if someone can prove/tell me otherwise, please do!
"Turn Disadvantages into Disadvantages" and "Collect Telephones". The secrets of Chinese success.
Cereb
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark3388 Posts
February 11 2012 10:15 GMT
#122
Interesting.

One thing I'd like to add and put in question is that to me Terrans also seem to stay in games waaaay after the've already ,ore or less lost whereas zergs seem to throw in the (too) early GG more.


I guess this would makes sense seeing as Terran has pretty good defensive abilities and are therefore hard to kill whereas if you lose too much as Zerg you do not have anything to fall back on at your base.

"Until the very very top in almost anything, all that matters is how much work you put in. The only problem is most people can't work hard even at things they do enjoy, much less things they don't have a real passion for. -Greg "IdrA" Fields
dde
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada796 Posts
February 11 2012 10:18 GMT
#123
On February 11 2012 19:15 Cereb wrote:
Interesting.

One thing I'd like to add and put in question is that to me Terrans also seem to stay in games waaaay after the've already ,ore or less lost whereas zergs seem to throw in the (too) early GG more.


I guess this would makes sense seeing as Terran has pretty good defensive abilities and are therefore hard to kill whereas if you lose too much as Zerg you do not have anything to fall back on at your base.




lol so biased
yes
perestain
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany308 Posts
February 11 2012 11:16 GMT
#124
You'd perhaps want to remove the "overall" data point in the first graph, since it gives a wrong impression.

It hides the clear trend that the later the game goes, zerg winrate increases and terran winrate declines.

I'd suggest using horizontal lines instead if you want to display the overall winrates.

Otherwise its a very nice statistic to look at, looking forward to more of this.
No matter how hot it gets, sooner or later there's a cool breeze coming in.
thezanursic
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
5497 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-11 11:26:13
February 11 2012 11:25 GMT
#125
On February 05 2012 06:22 ZeroTalent wrote:

[image loading]

This is why the snipe nerf is dumb fix something early game
35% winrate lategame is pretty bad
http://i45.tinypic.com/9j2cdc.jpg Let it be so!
Thrombozyt
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Germany1269 Posts
February 11 2012 11:48 GMT
#126
On February 11 2012 19:15 Cereb wrote:
Interesting.

One thing I'd like to add and put in question is that to me Terrans also seem to stay in games waaaay after the've already ,ore or less lost whereas zergs seem to throw in the (too) early GG more.


I guess this would makes sense seeing as Terran has pretty good defensive abilities and are therefore hard to kill whereas if you lose too much as Zerg you do not have anything to fall back on at your base.



If an attack fails, there is no need to gg out immediately, because you have a chance to equalize the situation until your opponent capitalizes on his advantage (tech, eco, units). If you defense fails, you are dead.

Terran are nearly always the attacking party. Zerg nearly always the defending one.

If a Terran eats a 6-gate and toss tears down bunkers and razes the natural, the terran gg's out. If the terran holds, the toss stays in.
Zdrastochye
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Ivory Coast6262 Posts
February 11 2012 11:56 GMT
#127
The ZvT match over time graph makes me chuckle. Does anyone else chuckle over it? It's quite chuckle-worthy.
Hey! How you doin'?
thezanursic
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
5497 Posts
February 11 2012 12:13 GMT
#128
On February 11 2012 20:56 Zdrastochye wrote:
The ZvT match over time graph makes me chuckle. Does anyone else chuckle over it? It's quite chuckle-worthy.

It just makes me sad when blizzard nerfs a lategame ability when T is already 35% in lategame.
Is it that hard to give vikings a few more dmg against bio and give zerg better scoutting for the early game?
http://i45.tinypic.com/9j2cdc.jpg Let it be so!
Zdrastochye
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Ivory Coast6262 Posts
February 11 2012 12:29 GMT
#129
On February 11 2012 21:13 thezanursic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2012 20:56 Zdrastochye wrote:
The ZvT match over time graph makes me chuckle. Does anyone else chuckle over it? It's quite chuckle-worthy.

It just makes me sad when blizzard nerfs a lategame ability when T is already 35% in lategame.
Is it that hard to give vikings a few more dmg against bio and give zerg better scoutting for the early game?


Nah mang, just make banelings worth 2x their cost. Either cuts muta balls up in size or there's far less banes, which means less tanks needed, which means more marines! Who needs other units when you have those guys?
Hey! How you doin'?
HaXXspetten
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Sweden15718 Posts
February 11 2012 12:33 GMT
#130
On February 11 2012 19:18 dde wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2012 19:15 Cereb wrote:
Interesting.

One thing I'd like to add and put in question is that to me Terrans also seem to stay in games waaaay after the've already ,ore or less lost whereas zergs seem to throw in the (too) early GG more.


I guess this would makes sense seeing as Terran has pretty good defensive abilities and are therefore hard to kill whereas if you lose too much as Zerg you do not have anything to fall back on at your base.




lol so biased

Very biased... but there is an element of truth to it actually >.>
david0925
Profile Joined September 2010
212 Posts
February 11 2012 12:34 GMT
#131
I really want to see the number of games involved in the game length winning percentage in each data point.

I'm not arguing for or against Terran late game, but as far as I know Terrans try to finish their games very early. So if the late game count is drastically lower than mid game it might be at least part of the reason.
ondik
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Czech Republic2908 Posts
February 11 2012 12:38 GMT
#132
On February 11 2012 20:25 thezanursic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2012 06:22 ZeroTalent wrote:

[image loading]

This is why the snipe nerf is dumb fix something early game
35% winrate lategame is pretty bad



On February 11 2012 21:13 thezanursic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2012 20:56 Zdrastochye wrote:
The ZvT match over time graph makes me chuckle. Does anyone else chuckle over it? It's quite chuckle-worthy.

It just makes me sad when blizzard nerfs a lategame ability when T is already 35% in lategame.
Is it that hard to give vikings a few more dmg against bio and give zerg better scoutting for the early game?


lol, so you think better scouting for Z will fix the overall terran 68% win ratio in first 10 minutes of the game.... no, some major nerf to terran early game would have to be made, for example nerfing marines or inability of cc lift, but i can't imagine what outrage would it cause looking at the snipe nerf discussion. I'd be more than happy to see terran late game buffed in exchange, because as much as i love the diversity of each race, I don't want to get to the state where one race is only for turtling, second is only for cheesing and third is somewhere inbetween.
Bisu. The one and only. // Save the cheerreaver, save the world (of SC2)
Noocta
Profile Joined June 2010
France12578 Posts
February 11 2012 12:40 GMT
#133
On February 11 2012 21:34 david0925 wrote:
I really want to see the number of games involved in the game length winning percentage in each data point.

I'm not arguing for or against Terran late game, but as far as I know Terrans try to finish their games very early. So if the late game count is drastically lower than mid game it might be at least part of the reason.


The trend of getting 3 fast orbital in TvZ recenlty totaly show that indeed.

/facepalm
" I'm not gonna fight you. I'm gonna kick your ass ! "
Micket
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom2163 Posts
February 11 2012 12:52 GMT
#134
As a Terran player, I can definitely say that these results can be skewed towards Z in ZvT late game simply for the following reason.

At the 10 minute mark, Terran does a marine tank push to 'pressure the Zerg' (it's an all in). Zergs get mutas out afterwards and lolz Terran around for 10 minutes. Terran can do nothing but turtle until max on 3 bases. Terran finally goes for it at 20 minutes into the game, but Zerg arrives with 5 brood lords and 8 infestors after losing the first engagement. Terran loses a 10 minute game at the 25 minute mark.

With Protoss, if your blink all in fails, or your dt rush is spotted, zerg makes 200/200 and attacks.
Val_
Profile Joined May 2010
Ukraine156 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-11 13:10:24
February 11 2012 12:57 GMT
#135
Sorry, how much games were analyzed ? 100 ? (from 2rd graph)
AKA [7x]Val / GML Terran EU
ActionpointTV
Profile Joined May 2011
60 Posts
February 11 2012 13:13 GMT
#136
On February 11 2012 19:15 Cereb wrote:
Interesting.

One thing I'd like to add and put in question is that to me Terrans also seem to stay in games waaaay after the've already ,ore or less lost whereas zergs seem to throw in the (too) early GG more.


I guess this would makes sense seeing as Terran has pretty good defensive abilities and are therefore hard to kill whereas if you lose too much as Zerg you do not have anything to fall back on at your base.


This arguments can be used the other way: Terrans cheese early-mid game, because they have a hard time fighting against late Z or P, and it would also be confirmed by most terran players imo. Then, the fact that Terrans have same problems with P lategame, shows that there is something wrong with Terran late army composition, given reality that P like to cheese in pvt as much as T and therefor should have same late game win rate if everything were balanced.
Tuczniak
Profile Joined September 2010
1561 Posts
February 11 2012 13:25 GMT
#137
-too small amount of games

-most of people will make wrong conclusions, so it doesn't matter anyway :D
bashalisk
Profile Joined September 2010
102 Posts
February 11 2012 13:32 GMT
#138
Interesting statistics.

Would you mind sharing the sample size and a breakdown between races, if possible?
ToastieNL
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands845 Posts
February 11 2012 13:47 GMT
#139
Lol at all those people stating that Terran loses early game by going for a risky all- in, and stays in the game to lose after the 20 minute mark to scew the graphs.

Anybody thought of WHY so many terrans go for those all- ins.
Hint; lategame is retarded.
Zerg lategame is imbalanced as shit. Also: "Protoss is really strong recently. Perhaps, it's time for there to be some changes for Terran." -MMA. Even MMA asks for buffs. Srsly Blizzard. Srsly.
Kingy604
Profile Joined December 2011
United Kingdom54 Posts
February 11 2012 14:02 GMT
#140
Has anyone done any significance tests on this data, or us the raw data even available. Without analysis and investigation into error it is hard to actually draw any meaningful conclusions from any statistics.

also it is hardly 35%, more like 38/39
"Its all fun and games, until someone looses an eye... Then it is fun and games you can't see anymore."
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