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GSL CODE S RO4 SPOILERS
This article from a Chinese site offers an analysis behind MVP's choice and timing of Ghosts instead of the convenient Terran imbalance whine after the game that swarmed the LR threads, and here's a quick translation.
---Article---
After the game I was puzzled, what prompted MVP to decide to mass Ghost snipe? Was it something he scouted? Or did his game sense and macro bring him the victory? Or did he simply make a gamble that paid off handsomely?
Here's my analysis:
This was the first major engagement of the game. As the picture demonstrates, MVP's Ghost Academy was half complete at 17:57. July fought very well in this battle and despite fighting on Terran's home ground with very good tank placements taking advantage of the high ground on either side, July wiped out MVP's army.
This image shows when MVP transitioned into Ghosts. At 19:22, or about a minute after the big engagement, MVP started training his first Ghost, while two more Barracks were adding on Tech Labs. This is a strange decision, as usually, Terran players are afraid of being out-macro'd by Zergs with their ability to rebuild quickly and therefore choose to build as many units as quickly as possible. However MVP chose this time to start training Ghosts. What prompted this? Wasn't he afraid of a ling/bane all-in?
At 20:55, July finally starts his Ultralisk Cavern, but MVP has been making Ghosts 3 at a time for several minutes already.
From 17:57 to 20:55, MVP had a head start of 3 minutes to mass up Ghosts. But the question still remains of what did MVP base his decision to mass Ghosts on? This reminded me of Set 1 of MVP vs HuK in the Ro8. I'm not sure if everyone is familiar with HuK's playstyle (note: this is Chinese site, so excuse ignorant lines like this XD), but besides being known for 4gates, he also has a double gas FE opening. This takes advantage of the low mineral and high gas cost of the Sentry to expand quickly and be safe with 4 Sentries and a few Stalkers. However this build was countered directly by MVP, whose 2 rax 1 fact build destroyed HuK by taking advantage of sieged tank's range and the overwhelming advantage it brings over a Sentry-heavy composition. See the images below:
This lead me to wonder if July's playstyle was directly countered by MVP as well? We know July is well-known for multi-pronged early aggression, but few people even talk about his lategame.
With this in mind, I revisited July's recent GSL matches.
More images. (PS There are so few games of July's lategame, vs NaDa is from March)
Those with keen sense among you will have noticed fast Ultralisks and massing Hive Tech units is a staple of July's lategame style. It's interesting to note that even when he was down 40 supply against Ryung in the Ro8 match, July went for Ultralisks even if it meant he had to build many Spinecrawlers to have the necessary supply. In terms of timing, July's Ultralisks in the MVP game was delayed by 3 to 4 minutes compared to usual, and this may help to explain why MVP's Ghost Academy was 3 minutes earlier than July's Ultralisk Cavern in that game.
So, in my opinion, MVP's Ghost strategy was tailored to defeat July. Another Zerg or another day may render it unsuitable and far less effective.
Editor's note: As a former top BW Terran player, identifying opponent's weakness and playstyle is essential, and MVP not only his solid mechanics but also his habit of identifying opponents' weaknesses from his days in BW, and July's (BTW he's called Fat Zerg in Chinese) predictable style was uncovered by MVP who constructed the Ghost strategy specifically for him.
The Korean BW scene is facing great challenges at the moment, with 3 major teams disbanding or up for new owners, there's the possibility of many progamers transitioning to Starcraft 2. Once these players with their world class mechanics and ability to analyse opponents transition to Starcraft 2, the metagame and excitement of the live matches will certainly take a big step forward.
---End Article---
Thanks for reading! I think this is quite insightful and takes into account so much more than the usual "OMG Snipe too good" talk that takes each game in isolation with no regard for players and their styles. I hope I didn't have any major screw ups with my first Topic, be it copyright or TL-policy related?
Source: http://sc2.178.com/201109/109305265999.html
All credits to tanis-PLU and editor 孙红征
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All picture is not showing
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Thanks for the translation. It's funny to see how the average viewer just cries imbalanced while they don't even ask how it was possible for MVP to mass that many ghosts and what his mindset behind it was.
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nice, thank you for the translation 
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So the conclusion is that MVP anticipated July's tech switch to heavy T3 by analyzing his previous games and made the tech switch to Ghosts based on this.
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On September 07 2011 18:14 butchji wrote:
Thanks for the translation. It's funny to see how the average viewer just cries imbalanced while they don't even ask how it was possible for MVP to mass that many ghosts and what his mindset behind it was.
I agree with you that MVP almost certainly has a timing where he is weak while transitioning to ghosts, in the same way that transitioning to carriers has a big weakness. Additionally, I agree that just because when you have mass ghost (and can use them correctly) you kinda can't lose, that doesn't make it imbalanced, in the same way that carriers aren't imbalanced because you can't get that critical mass.
However, I still think that MVP's matches pretty plainly show that ghosts are imbalanced in TvZ. I'm a top masters terran who has previously been GM on the SEA server, so while I'm no pro, I'm not some noobie who doesn't know what the hell he's talking about either. The fact that ghosts are a hard counter to infestors, and a soft counter to both broodlords and ultralisks is plainly a problem. Even if it does turn out that terran has a timing at which they can die while getting ghosts (and I'm by no means convinced that there is), then lategame tvz may still devolve into 'can the zerg kill the terran before he gets ghosts'.
Edit: I also want to say that Tier 3 is a necessary part of lategame tvz which is by no means contained to July. It is necessary for every tvz that gets to the lategame. As I've said previously, its simply plainly imbalanced to have a unit that is a counter to all three tier 3 techs.
TL;DR I dont often like to call imbalance, particularly when its a newish strategy, but in this case I think it's justified.
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maybe something like mass cracklings and banelings is the way to go once you realise how many ghosts there are, which obviously means less tanks overall.
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Two false premises:
1)That massing T3 units in late game is a unique hallmark of July's style. If anything, he sometimes says on Lair longer than other Zergs, who all tend to go for Hive & either T3, staying with infestor-ling only if gas poor.
2)MVP needed to be prompted to go ghosts/that some signal led him to do it/that it was a gamble. In fact, it is a topic of such interest because many players (including myself) expect mass ghosts to be the standard Terran response to virtually all late-game vZ situations.
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This is a really nice analysis. Although the Ghost strat looked really strong vs July we really do need more Terrans defeating their Zerg opponents this easily before anyone can call it imbalanced. July might have just been very surprised and didn't know how to counter it properly. Destiny managed to surprise many really good Toss players with his Mass Infestor play (and some really good Terrans).
Now that they know how to counter it, he is not winning against them as easily.
So, personally I want to see more Terrans "abusing" mass Ghosts and I want to see what top Zergs do to counter it.
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On September 07 2011 18:25 ManicMarine wrote:
Even if it does turn out that terran has a timing at which they can die while getting ghosts (and I'm by no means convinced that there is)
There is, and you just used it as example for what the late game may evolve to. The timing is pretty wide tbh, since Terran takes quite long to get a good amount of ghosts with a lot of energy for EMPs.
There's also the mentally insane tactic of dropping everything (banelings 'n infestors, for example) and NPing some Ghosts to EMP the others. In the end, Micro can overcome - if you try to.
Anyways, good analysis - very interesting, including July's nickname in China. :D Thanks for translating!
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It's a little sad to see that whenever an ability is used well or very effectively theres instantly about 5-10 people in the LR thread who inexplicably get the urge to post "imba" or some variation of it.
And haha yeah, HuK known for 4gates
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MVP was ahead of july and is generally better thats why it was quite onesided i dont see why july didnt switch to ling/bling though that would of been much more effective.
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ghosts are not a "counter" to ultralisks, they just aren't awful against them. using almost 200 energy of snipe to kill 1 ultra is cost effective on paper, but not really a viable solution if the ultras have support. july had a maximum of 2 infestors against mvp, and never once fungaled a ball of 20 ghosts that were not spread in the slightest. 20 spell casters of any of the 3 races is going to shit on just about anything. running 8 thors in with no support against lings and 20 infestors, and watching as they all get neuraled and kill each other would be just as idiotic as running 8 ultras alone into a tank corridor with ghost support. 20 infestors would shit on just about anything the terran has if he only had 2 ghosts for support, that game on metal is a horrible, horrible game to cite as a balance study for ghosts vs z.
ghosts are quite good late game vs Z, but its generally an issue of getting them out in time. they directly cut into tank and medivac production, both of which are 100% required against the normal zerg comps. Furthermore, they usually cannot be pumped out rapidly as terrans rarely have more than a couple tech labbed barracks lying around. letting a terran get 20 ghosts SHOULD lose a zerg a game. brood lords and ultras are designed to punish a terran that is overextending his defenses or is not prepared, not autowin the game for the zerg. ghosts are literally the 1 viable option against heavy infestor/broodlord against a competent zerg, just because that composition isn't autowin for the zerg does not make ghosts OP in the matchup.
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During the game when July was gearing up for his 2/2/ timing attack mvp did a medivac drop in July's main. This was around 10-16 seconds before 2/2 was finished.
July couldn't decide between bringing some of his units back to deal with the drop or to just wait for 2/2 to finish and go. He opted to just wait and go which let MVP kill both the pool and spire delaying the possibility of broodlords and a quick ling bane remax.
While it's possible July would have gone for ultras anyways sniping(lol) the pool let MVP safely mass ghost when if it hadn't been taken out july could have remaxed very quickly leaving a point of vulnerability if MVP still opted to mass ghost.
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On September 07 2011 18:47 twiitar wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2011 18:25 ManicMarine wrote:
Even if it does turn out that terran has a timing at which they can die while getting ghosts (and I'm by no means convinced that there is) There is, and you just used it as example for what the late game may evolve to. The timing is pretty wide tbh, since Terran takes quite long to get a good amount of ghosts with a lot of energy for EMPs. There's also the mentally insane tactic of dropping everything (banelings 'n infestors, for example) and NPing some Ghosts to EMP the others. In the end, Micro can overcome - if you try to. Anyways, good analysis - very interesting, including July's nickname in China. :D Thanks for translating!
Sorry but any decent Terran with ghosts and siege tanks will not allow infestors to do much. EMP [range 10+(2)], Siege tanks (range 13) and Snipe (range 10), all three of these things easily mitigate any type of infestor play against mass ghost style. Unless they somehow mess up and allow you to get close enough and your infestors are able to stay alive long enough to actually control a ghost and EMP the rest of them, you aren't going to have an fun time against this strategy.
TL;DR Infestors cannot and willnot take out ghosts unless the terran messes up, something which IMMVP doesn't do often. (takes 3 fungals to kill a ghost by the way)
+ Show Spoiler +I don't think it is imbalanced and want to see if someone can actually come up with something against that composition late-game. I guess we will just have to wait it out though.
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Very well translated almost 100% accuracy.
If this is true, MVP is indeed the epitome of having BW pro-mentaliy.
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picture aren't showing up QQ
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As some have stated, I agree with the topic and I love the fact that someone is objectively trying to analyze it (even if he has some BW fanboyism) but sniper still seems abit to good in combination with the other abilities that terran have;
Siegetanks + Emp.
With Siegetanks nothing can overrun you on the ground (counting that if you get to lategame and have that many ghosts your tanks are atleast 2+ dammage) , with EMP you can instantly make all the infestors worthless BUT yes if july had hit a fungal there he might've won the match quite easily. But I don't like it being that much of a labile matchup and if that would be balanced it would still be boring, yes BW had the same features but it was much slower and thus usually (usually) it didn't take just 1 mistake/emp/fungal to decide the game.
Point is; Emp ruins zerg casters, Snipe kills anything that zerg has that is ranged and/or ultralisks whilst siegetanks and planetary fortresses make zerglings invalid.
I'd loved to watch MVP vs NesTea endgame because NesTea is a boss, shame that he did a whoreout and "Played to win" (or as others call it, boring ass play that don't make me a fan of them) and just ruined NesTea very earlygame.
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Umm ghost mech has been around for like 2 months.. Idra and demuslim talk about it all the time.
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