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[Aug] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 6

Forum Index > SC2 General
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MrCon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France29748 Posts
September 05 2011 13:23 GMT
#101
For the P who missed this weekend games (code A and TLOpen), I really recommend watching the protoss runs in those.
In the TLOpen I saw more warp prism in 6 hours than in 1 year, and used in a non gimmicky way.
There was some really good games. I saw threads in the strat forum about those builds already.
SwampZero
Profile Joined September 2010
Greece350 Posts
September 05 2011 13:24 GMT
#102
On September 05 2011 22:09 Truedot wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:02 Black Gun wrote:
On September 05 2011 21:59 Truedot wrote:
On September 05 2011 21:52 Black Gun wrote:
On September 05 2011 19:23 Beyonder wrote:
On September 05 2011 19:20 SwampZero wrote:
Never once in the history of Starcraft II were zerg winning more than terran in TvZ ...

http://i.imgur.com/bdP2e.png

Korea solves! ^_^


i love how in april, the P winrates were below 33% while the T winrates were so high they didnt even fit on the chart anymore.




the top and bottom races on the graph always oppose each other's percentage, so since P is 32, T is 68.

no. this is wrong for so many reasons I'm too lazy to list them all. just look at the graph, you can clearly see that the T winrate is below 65%.


looking back at this graph I;ll give you an example.

http://i.imgur.com/bdP2e.png

See games in may for all races. The lowest win rate and the highest win rate oppose each other.

They add up to 100 together which converts to 100%.

Example 1: PvT may
45.1 vs 55.9 opposing numbers in percentages, add them together to get 100.

Example 2:
ZvT may.
59.3 vs 40.7

again, the numbers oppose each other. add them up to 100.

this is basic math.



is it possible that youre really this stupid? Is there a universe out there in which such a stupid person exists?



User was temp banned for this post.
Akhee
Profile Joined January 2011
Brazil811 Posts
September 05 2011 13:27 GMT
#103
On September 05 2011 22:14 Truedot wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:10 kickinhead wrote:
Mhmmm.... That happens when Protoss wins most games with Timing-attacks and ppl start to figure them out IMHO, while Korean Terran-Players also know how to macro very well.... Btw. Why don't we see Death-Balls from Protoss that often anymore against Zerg? It's not like the build got nerfed or sth.

I also think that Protoss will soon get a better win-stat against Terran, cuz they'll too figure out how to beat abusing timing-attacks aka the 1/1/1-Build.

But I guess with the patch coming up and if Protoss utilizes the Prism more, it could even out quite a bit.

I highly question the use of this Graph though, cuz most players are still using the Ladder-Maps and on those Maps, it's a totally different story, especially on high masters where so many ppl just abuse the hell out of early aggression etc.



Because MC and other people changed how people play normally to almost always blink stalker. Its more effective than a ball because of its ridiculous mobility.

zerg status mobility with protoss damage and HP values, and the ability to have ever living units, vs building a ball that gets chain fungaled.

Its still viable, its still damn deadly in the right hands, and it still overpowers a zerg that doesn't just mass infestors forever, but its not as efficient as blink stalker.


infestors are the counter to "deathball", its like the counter to everything in the game, imagine mass infestors with full energy... ridiculous
Ctuchik
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden91 Posts
September 05 2011 13:30 GMT
#104
On September 05 2011 20:16 Hondelul wrote:
Update:
Since all percentages from July changed from [July] to [Aug] I´m quite sure the stats got combined. No seperation for International and Korea.
If I´m wrong please tell me!

It's both Korea and International.

There is no "combination" of the stats, that is, it's not cumulative. The reason the July numbers have changed is that I reload all the data from TLPD every month, so any games added later will now show up. Sometimes tournaments are late with submitting their results, or the TLPD guys are busy.
http://twitter.com/sc2statistics
ladyumbra
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Canada1699 Posts
September 05 2011 13:32 GMT
#105
Forgive me as I've only been following for a few months but what happened back in January to cause zerg to have a sudden plummet to 42% when both toss and Terran was 50? Also things seemed stable for all three in June but now we are seeing a bit of disparity again as everyone does the think up new strats dance.
garlicface
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada4196 Posts
September 05 2011 13:34 GMT
#106
On September 05 2011 22:32 ladyumbra wrote:
Forgive me as I've only been following for a few months but what happened back in January to cause zerg to have a sudden plummet to 42% when both toss and Terran was 50? Also things seemed stable for all three in June but now we are seeing a bit of disparity again as everyone does the think up new strats dance.

Pre-infestor buff, I think.
#TeamBuLba
FreshD
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany21 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-05 13:35:46
September 05 2011 13:35 GMT
#107
On September 05 2011 22:24 SwampZero wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:09 Truedot wrote:
On September 05 2011 22:02 Black Gun wrote:
On September 05 2011 21:59 Truedot wrote:
On September 05 2011 21:52 Black Gun wrote:
On September 05 2011 19:23 Beyonder wrote:
On September 05 2011 19:20 SwampZero wrote:
Never once in the history of Starcraft II were zerg winning more than terran in TvZ ...

http://i.imgur.com/bdP2e.png

Korea solves! ^_^


i love how in april, the P winrates were below 33% while the T winrates were so high they didnt even fit on the chart anymore.




the top and bottom races on the graph always oppose each other's percentage, so since P is 32, T is 68.

no. this is wrong for so many reasons I'm too lazy to list them all. just look at the graph, you can clearly see that the T winrate is below 65%.


looking back at this graph I;ll give you an example.

http://i.imgur.com/bdP2e.png

See games in may for all races. The lowest win rate and the highest win rate oppose each other.

They add up to 100 together which converts to 100%.

Example 1: PvT may
45.1 vs 55.9 opposing numbers in percentages, add them together to get 100.

Example 2:
ZvT may.
59.3 vs 40.7

again, the numbers oppose each other. add them up to 100.

this is basic math.



is it possible that youre really this stupid? Is there a universe out there in which such a stupid person exists?



haha this really made me laugh :D does he believe in what he is saying?? and if so tell me how for example in march 52,8% + 45% makes 100%????

for the PvT, ZvT, ZvP graphs you're right of course, but your example 1... :D
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5225 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-05 13:45:03
September 05 2011 13:42 GMT
#108
On September 05 2011 22:23 MrCon wrote:
For the P who missed this weekend games (code A and TLOpen), I really recommend watching the protoss runs in those.
In the TLOpen I saw more warp prism in 6 hours than in 1 year, and used in a non gimmicky way.
There was some really good games. I saw threads in the strat forum about those builds already.


+ Show Spoiler +
...you do realize that a Zerg won the TLOpen and Terran took 1st, 2nd, one of the 3rd in GSL Code A and GSL Code S this season.

What Protoss run are you talking about?
chestnutcc
Profile Joined July 2011
India429 Posts
September 05 2011 13:45 GMT
#109
A v subjective and amateur viewpoint here; apologies beforehand. I used to play age of empires and age of mythology extensively a few years back, and could not help but notice some interesting distinctions between that series and starcraft 2 (I have no experience with broodwar).

In the age series, macro focused around four resources and the ease of collection of each varied according to its relative importance. For example, gold (or stone) would be randomly flung about the map in concentrated amounts, wood was abundant for the most part etc. Additionally, resource collection required only a low cost dumping structure (such as a granary)*. The effect of this multiplicity of resources was that harassment (or raiding as it is known in that community) was a v integral part of the game. Constant raiding was a feature of even the most macro oriented games (the age series had a interesting blend of hard macro and intensive harass). Since games did not usually end with a few decisive encounters, it was the ability of players to resupply and macro up constantly that won games, and this was what the continuous harass targeted.

iamke55 in an excellent thread** outlines the PvT metagame, which ends in the current state (forget the 1-1-1 for now) of terran taxing protoss multitasking with constant harass. Terran in particular are v suited to this style of play, all thanks (imo) to the mule. This is critical to their playstyle. Count the raiding avenues they have: Reapers, hellions, banshees and drops.

The shift in the zerg meta game may be attributed to the aggressive nestea-losira style (in tastosis terms, nestea being pure reactionary harass, while losira forcing his will on the opponent with constant harass). Zerg have speedlings, mutas and even baneling drops (nydus worms are less seen).

Toss have at best, blink stalkers and phoenix, the latter of which I think are neutralized by a few turrets. I am unsure of the efficacy of DTs, they seem to do better late game, when the opponents attention is stretched over multiple bases, early to mid game a single detector can neutralize them, and they are (taking the tech path into consideration) cost ineffective. Warp prisms are rarely seen, and early to midgame appear to be cost ineffective, due to the constraints the macro game places on toss army size (all ins aside). The interesting thing is that both terran and zerg can effectively pressure from the get go, toss is at a disadvantage here; this is sort of how the game is supposed to be. It would seem toss needs a raiding unit of some sort, to exert some counter pressure cost effectively***.

*This basically meant a single raid wasn't usually game ending, good macro could always resupply efficiently. It was only one part of a larger war of attrition, and effects multiplied the longer the game got. Also note that four resources provided more avenues for effective harass; in sc2 the concentration of two resources at one generally hard to access and defensible spot means the efficacy of harass, when it happens, is vastly increased i.e. a single good raid can end the game.The distinction between harassment and timing attacks is obvious.
**http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=196385
***The inability to do this imo, provides timing windows, which builds like the 1-1-1 exploit.
craz3d
Profile Joined August 2005
Bulgaria856 Posts
September 05 2011 13:49 GMT
#110
Is there anyone who knows statistics who can analyze these graphs and actually tell us whether this graph means anything? Is 24000 sample size enough to infer something from these results? Until someone analyzes using statistical methods, we're all talking out of our asses here.
Hello World!
MrCon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France29748 Posts
September 05 2011 13:49 GMT
#111
On September 05 2011 22:30 Ctuchik wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 20:16 Hondelul wrote:
Update:
Since all percentages from July changed from [July] to [Aug] I´m quite sure the stats got combined. No seperation for International and Korea.
If I´m wrong please tell me!

It's both Korea and International.

There is no "combination" of the stats, that is, it's not cumulative. The reason the July numbers have changed is that I reload all the data from TLPD every month, so any games added later will now show up. Sometimes tournaments are late with submitting their results, or the TLPD guys are busy.

Your statement is confusing. Both international and korea games are just represented now in the graph, right ?
JonnyLaw
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3482 Posts
September 05 2011 13:51 GMT
#112
On September 05 2011 22:42 BronzeKnee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:23 MrCon wrote:
For the P who missed this weekend games (code A and TLOpen), I really recommend watching the protoss runs in those.
In the TLOpen I saw more warp prism in 6 hours than in 1 year, and used in a non gimmicky way.
There was some really good games. I saw threads in the strat forum about those builds already.


+ Show Spoiler +
...you do realize that a Zerg won the TLOpen and Terran took 1st, 2nd, one of the 3rd in GSL Code A and GSL Code S this season.

What Protoss run are you talking about?



Code A qualifiers. 5 z, 5p, 2 t and the four foriegn invites (sase, naniwa, select, sjow).

Redox
Profile Joined October 2010
Germany24794 Posts
September 05 2011 13:51 GMT
#113
Whenever I look at these statistics I am surprised by how balanced it looks. After that I am surprised about all the whining based on these numbers.
Off-season = best season
ScythedBlade
Profile Joined May 2010
308 Posts
September 05 2011 13:53 GMT
#114
It's true. Zerg players used to be pretty retarded for forgetting about infestors in every game. Once Blizzard put a shiny gold star from the infestor buff, infestors have pretty much become theb est caster of all 3 races ...

Not to mention full energy infestors with tons of infested marines is ridiculously strong. It's almost hydra strong due to the instant bullet instead of spines. =/

More whine, more buffs.
Ctuchik
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden91 Posts
September 05 2011 13:54 GMT
#115
On September 05 2011 22:49 MrCon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:30 Ctuchik wrote:
On September 05 2011 20:16 Hondelul wrote:
Update:
Since all percentages from July changed from [July] to [Aug] I´m quite sure the stats got combined. No seperation for International and Korea.
If I´m wrong please tell me!

It's both Korea and International.

There is no "combination" of the stats, that is, it's not cumulative. The reason the July numbers have changed is that I reload all the data from TLPD every month, so any games added later will now show up. Sometimes tournaments are late with submitting their results, or the TLPD guys are busy.

Your statement is confusing. Both international and korea games are just represented now in the graph, right ?


Hrrm, yeah sorry. That was confusing. =P

It is both Korea and International combined. Just want to make it clear that the data is not cumulative!
http://twitter.com/sc2statistics
MrCon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France29748 Posts
September 05 2011 13:56 GMT
#116
On September 05 2011 22:54 Ctuchik wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2011 22:49 MrCon wrote:
On September 05 2011 22:30 Ctuchik wrote:
On September 05 2011 20:16 Hondelul wrote:
Update:
Since all percentages from July changed from [July] to [Aug] I´m quite sure the stats got combined. No seperation for International and Korea.
If I´m wrong please tell me!

It's both Korea and International.

There is no "combination" of the stats, that is, it's not cumulative. The reason the July numbers have changed is that I reload all the data from TLPD every month, so any games added later will now show up. Sometimes tournaments are late with submitting their results, or the TLPD guys are busy.

Your statement is confusing. Both international and korea games are just represented now in the graph, right ?


Hrrm, yeah sorry. That was confusing. =P

It is both Korea and International combined. Just want to make it clear that the data is not cumulative!

Thanks.
And thanks for your work
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5225 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-05 14:01:13
September 05 2011 13:56 GMT
#117
On September 05 2011 22:45 chestnutcc wrote:
A v subjective and amateur viewpoint here; apologies beforehand. I used to play age of empires and age of mythology extensively a few years back, and could not help but notice some interesting distinctions between that series and starcraft 2 (I have no experience with broodwar).

In the age series, macro focused around four resources and the ease of collection of each varied according to its relative importance. For example, gold (or stone) would be randomly flung about the map in concentrated amounts, wood was abundant for the most part etc. Additionally, resource collection required only a low cost dumping structure (such as a granary)*. The effect of this multiplicity of resources was that harassment (or raiding as it is known in that community) was a v integral part of the game. Constant raiding was a feature of even the most macro oriented games (the age series had a interesting blend of hard macro and intensive harass). Since games did not usually end with a few decisive encounters, it was the ability of players to resupply and macro up constantly that won games, and this was what the continuous harass targeted.

iamke55 in an excellent thread** outlines the PvT metagame, which ends in the current state (forget the 1-1-1 for now) of terran taxing protoss multitasking with constant harass. Terran in particular are v suited to this style of play, all thanks (imo) to the mule. This is critical to their playstyle. Count the raiding avenues they have: Reapers, hellions, banshees and drops.

The shift in the zerg meta game may be attributed to the aggressive nestea-losira style (in tastosis terms, nestea being pure reactionary harass, while losira forcing his will on the opponent with constant harass). Zerg have speedlings, mutas and even baneling drops (nydus worms are less seen).

Toss have at best, blink stalkers and phoenix, the latter of which I think are neutralized by a few turrets. I am unsure of the efficacy of DTs, they seem to do better late game, when the opponents attention is stretched over multiple bases, early to mid game a single detector can neutralize them, and they are (taking the tech path into consideration) cost ineffective. Warp prisms are rarely seen, and early to midgame appear to be cost ineffective, due to the constraints the macro game places on toss army size (all ins aside). The interesting thing is that both terran and zerg can effectively pressure from the get go, toss is at a disadvantage here; this is sort of how the game is supposed to be. It would seem toss needs a raiding unit of some sort, to exert some counter pressure cost effectively***.

*This basically meant a single raid wasn't usually game ending, good macro could always resupply efficiently. It was only one part of a larger war of attrition, and effects multiplied the longer the game got. Also note that four resources provided more avenues for effective harass; in sc2 the concentration of two resources at one generally hard to access and defensible spot means the efficacy of harass, when it happens, is vastly increased i.e. a single good raid can end the game.The distinction between harassment and timing attacks is obvious.
**http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=196385
***The inability to do this imo, provides timing windows, which builds like the 1-1-1 exploit.


Good post. I would like to add to this that the reason Warp Prisms are rarely seen is due to a three fundamental problems it has:

#1 The unit has no other uses. Medivacs and Overlords are necessary pieces in nearly every T and every Z build even if they don't drop units, and thus drops become a cheap option for both races that they can deploy if they sense a weakness. If you build a Warp Prism and suddenly the window to drop closes, you've wasted 200 minerals.

#2 The Warp Prism takes away precious time from the Robo facility.

#3 Protoss doesn't have a really good worker kills that you would want to drop. 8 Marines with Stim can decimate workers, as can Zerglings/Hellions/Banelings. Zealots do decent damage but are too slow, Stalkers, Immortals and Sentries cost too much and do too little DPS.

DT's are HT's are the best options, but both are very high up the tech tree, and thus still open up timings like the 1-1-1. Furthermore, since DT's are cloaked, they often do no need the help of a Warp Prism to reach the opponents mineral line.

The proposed change to increase the shields of the Warp Prism is welcome, but doesn't solve the three fundamental problems with the unit.

It sounds like Blizzard knows this from what I've heard, and will include better harrassment options for Protoss.
chestnutcc
Profile Joined July 2011
India429 Posts
September 05 2011 14:13 GMT
#118
+ Show Spoiler +
Good post. I would like to add to this that the reason Warp Prisms are rarely seen is due to a three fundamental problems it has:

#1 The unit has no other uses. Medivacs and Overlords are necessary pieces in nearly every T and every Z build even if they don't drop units, and thus drops become a cheap option for both races that they can deploy if they sense a weakness. If you build a Warp Prism and suddenly the window to drop closes, you've wasted 200 minerals.

#2 The Warp Prism takes away precious time from the Robo facility.

#3 Protoss doesn't have a really good worker kills that you would want to drop. 8 Marines with Stim can decimate workers, as can Zerglings/Hellions/Banelings. Zealots do decent damage but are too slow, Stalkers, Immortals and Sentries cost too much and do too little DPS.

DT's are HT's are the best options, but both are very high up the tech tree, and thus still open up timings like the 1-1-1. Furthermore, since DT's are cloaked, they often do no need the help of a Warp Prism to reach the opponents mineral line.

The proposed change to increase the shields of the Warp Prism is welcome, but doesn't solve the three fundamental problems with the unit.

It sounds like Blizzard knows this from what I've heard, and will include better harrassment options for Protoss.


Good points. Time off the robo facility is crucial. Maybe all it takes is to allow warp prisms from the gateway/nexus and make them a static shield battery.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
September 05 2011 14:14 GMT
#119
when is the korea graph coming out ?
windsupernova
Profile Joined October 2010
Mexico5280 Posts
September 05 2011 14:19 GMT
#120
*sees all stats at roughly at 50%*


B-b-but Teamliquid told me that the game was broken and unless you are X or Y race you had 0 chance of winning!

On a more serious note, this statistics are not the end all means of determining balance(but to be honest we don't really have a reliable tool to measure that)

Protoss seem to be having a rough time, hopefully the next patch helps them a bit.
"Its easy, just trust your CPU".-Boxer on being good at games
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2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
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