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On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:Show nested quote +I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck.
No he didn't. He just quoted win-rates. Oh my. Did he note the downward slope in TvZ rate? Didn't think so. Statistics don't always reflect balance. Aligulac fucking says so himself/herself on the page.
Maybe keglu will drive the point home with this post.
On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)?
So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 43 % in January, seems legit.
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On July 28 2013 10:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:
For those quoting only the most recent season of WCS:
Dont forget that Life, Roro, Kangho, DRG, True, and Effort were all in the RO48 of challenger league (9 of the zergs from code S dropped, while only 1 terran did...). They were going against Terrans like Skyhigh, Kop, Bang and other terrans which are "lesser".
Yet when Bogus meets Savage or Flash meets RagnaroK, the same argument is suddenly dropped in favor of "TvZ 15:6 in the OSL, nerf MULEs, nerf Marines, nerf Mines, nerf Medivacs, nerf nerf nerf"?
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On July 28 2013 19:18 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:16 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
Z wins
DRG vs skyhigh
life vs kop
life vs jjakji
curious vs bang
effort vs yoda
true vs keen
songduri vs sC
T wins
dream vs roro
reality vs kangho
mkp vs shine
gumiho vs soo
Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang?
EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32
12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning
4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 42 % in January, seems legit. which is kind of proof that win rates aren't the end all be all when discussing balance, huh? So what you base you statement "it was post infestor nerf" on?
opinion. there is nothing else to base a statement on such an abstract question on.
also it's not even relevant. if terran is as imba, less imba or more imba than zerg was in the end of WOL doesn't matter.
we just need to look at the now.
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On July 28 2013 19:19 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck. No he didn't. He just quoted win-rates. Oh my. Did he note the downward slope in TvZ rate? Didn't think so. Statistics don't always reflect balance. Aligulac fucking says so himself/herself on the page. Maybe keglu will drive the point home with this post. Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 43 % in January, seems legit.
yeah statistics dont always reflect balance. thats another thing. winrates are T favored AND a lot of Z wins come from roach bane all ins since its very hard to win in a macro game. so thanks for agreeing there.
oh and lol@downward trend...its 2 months...now if it goes up to 54% july the trend is upwards? rofl.
@TheDwf: NO! for gods sake dont nerf T but buff useless Z stuff like ovidrop, nydus etc. which would also help non-muta comps to be able to harrass and therefore be more viable in both TvZ and ZvP.
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On July 28 2013 19:23 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:18 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:16 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans.
Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 42 % in January, seems legit. which is kind of proof that win rates aren't the end all be all when discussing balance, huh? So what you base you statement "it was post infestor nerf" on? opinion. there is nothing else to base a statement on such an abstract question on. also it's not even relevant. if terran is as imba, less imba or more imba than zerg was in the end of WOL doesn't matter. we just need to look at the now.
Since i use mainly statisctic to comment pn balance and since thre is no statistical data support that claim i will have to disagree with your opinion here.
On other hand i compared WoL ZvT post queen patch with HOTS ZvT
May 2012-Feb 2013 TvZ 45,0% (9463 games)
March 2013- June 2013 TvZ 53,9% (3561 games)
So it's actually pretty close in 'imbalance level' -1,1% difference.
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On July 28 2013 19:30 Decendos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:19 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck. No he didn't. He just quoted win-rates. Oh my. Did he note the downward slope in TvZ rate? Didn't think so. Statistics don't always reflect balance. Aligulac fucking says so himself/herself on the page. Maybe keglu will drive the point home with this post. On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
Z wins
DRG vs skyhigh
life vs kop
life vs jjakji
curious vs bang
effort vs yoda
true vs keen
songduri vs sC
T wins
dream vs roro
reality vs kangho
mkp vs shine
gumiho vs soo
Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang?
EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32
12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning
4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 43 % in January, seems legit. yeah statistics dont always reflect balance. thats another thing. winrates are T favored AND a lot of Z wins come from roach bane all ins since its very hard to win in a macro game. so thanks for agreeing there. oh and lol@downward trend...its 2 months...now if it goes up to 54% july the trend is upwards? rofl. @TheDwf: NO! for gods sake dont nerf T but buff useless Z stuff like ovidrop, nydus etc. which would also help non-muta comps to be able to harrass and therefore be more viable in both TvZ and ZvP.
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. From the Terran perspective, they feel forced to triple CC to keep up with Zerg on econ, and early enough that they can start pushing out MMM and mines to keep the Zerg engaged and spending gas on banes and mutas instead of tech.
So what, you quote statistics to argue that Terran is OP. And then you simply ignore the drop in winrate? If it goes up in July? Well, what if it goes down in August? This line of thinking is childish at best.
Again, you are claiming that TvZ is as imba in HotS as in WoL - when it was almost exclusively Zergs winning tournaments, and top foreign Zergs beating top korean non-Zergs consistently.
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On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip.
Zergs usually do it blindly.
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On July 28 2013 20:04 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. Zergs usually do it blindly.
it's not about that, it's about terrans ability to still hold it convincingly after going 3 oc when they prepare accordingly.
zerg has to do lots of damage with this attack, otherwise they'll just die to a marine rally push.
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And the useless circlejerking about winrates continues ...
That has NOTHING to do with game balance because the sample size is not big enough to give valid statistics. The only thing you can do when looking at those tournament results is looking at individual games to see "IMBA tactics" which could not have been countered. Anyone can have a bad day though, so one game doesnt really make anything valid either.
Cmon people ... use some COMMON SENSE!
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On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:30 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 19:19 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck. No he didn't. He just quoted win-rates. Oh my. Did he note the downward slope in TvZ rate? Didn't think so. Statistics don't always reflect balance. Aligulac fucking says so himself/herself on the page. Maybe keglu will drive the point home with this post. On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans.
Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 43 % in January, seems legit. yeah statistics dont always reflect balance. thats another thing. winrates are T favored AND a lot of Z wins come from roach bane all ins since its very hard to win in a macro game. so thanks for agreeing there. oh and lol@downward trend...its 2 months...now if it goes up to 54% july the trend is upwards? rofl. @TheDwf: NO! for gods sake dont nerf T but buff useless Z stuff like ovidrop, nydus etc. which would also help non-muta comps to be able to harrass and therefore be more viable in both TvZ and ZvP. Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. From the Terran perspective, they feel forced to triple CC to keep up with Zerg on econ, and early enough that they can start pushing out MMM and mines to keep the Zerg engaged and spending gas on banes and mutas instead of tech. So what, you quote statistics to argue that Terran is OP. And then you simply ignore the drop in winrate? If it goes up in July? Well, what if it goes down in August? This line of thinking is childish at best. Again, you are claiming that TvZ is as imba in HotS as in WoL - when it was almost exclusively Zergs winning tournaments, and top foreign Zergs beating top korean non-Zergs consistently.
roach bane is blind since you cant scout 3rd CC that early...except T builds it near scouting ovi. on maps like whirlwind, red city if you dont scout him first it needs to be 100% blindly done.
oh and if winrates is ALWAYS between 52-55% for 6 months then some SMALL buff for zerg is okay. cant believe you say its fine that T gets free wins for half a year and you still want to have them. if july is sth. like 54%+ a slight buff for Z in TvZ is definetly in order. notice the word SLIGHT!!!
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On July 28 2013 20:18 Rabiator wrote:
And the useless circlejerking about winrates continues ...
That has NOTHING to do with game balance because the sample size is not big enough to give valid statistics. The only thing you can do when looking at those tournament results is looking at individual games to see "IMBA tactics" which could not have been countered. Anyone can have a bad day though, so one game doesnt really make anything valid either.
Cmon people ... use some COMMON SENSE!
Sou you are saying we should all be like LSN who comes here crying after every Terran win he watched. Id rather pass, you can use your common sense i'll stick with my small sample size of games(around 1000 montlhy per matchup)
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On July 28 2013 20:11 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 20:04 TheDwf wrote:On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. Zergs usually do it blindly. it's not about that, it's about terrans ability to still hold it convincingly after going 3 oc when they prepare accordingly. zerg has to do lots of damage with this attack, otherwise they'll just die to a marine rally push.
yes, that's why 3OC is a standard strategy. It can hold everything when adjusted accordingly.
Would you rather play a game that is solely decided by blind decisions that are 50:50? Because that is what it sounds like.
If Zerg doesn't go roach/baneling, yes, they may be ever-so-slightly behind with the standard responses right now. And yes, maybe there are not good enough responses out there (which we still have to wait and see; balance has been quite OK in most tournaments) and then either the game devolves too much into that coinflippy opening battle (which I hope would be adjusted), or blizzard has to adjust something due to imbalance.
But calling the strategy too strong because it is playable with good sucess under normal scouting conditions (aka, what we call standard play) just undermines the idea of figuring out standard play.
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On July 28 2013 21:17 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 20:11 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 20:04 TheDwf wrote:On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. Zergs usually do it blindly. it's not about that, it's about terrans ability to still hold it convincingly after going 3 oc when they prepare accordingly. zerg has to do lots of damage with this attack, otherwise they'll just die to a marine rally push. yes, that's why 3OC is a standard strategy. It can hold everything when adjusted accordingly. Would you rather play a game that is solely decided by blind decisions that are 50:50? Because that is what it sounds like. If Zerg doesn't go roach/baneling, yes, they may be ever-so-slightly behind with the standard responses right now. And yes, maybe there are not good enough responses out there (which we still have to wait and see; balance has been quite OK in most tournaments) and then either the game devolves too much into that coinflippy opening battle (which I hope would be adjusted), or blizzard has to adjust something due to imbalance. But calling the strategy too strong because it is playable with good sucess under normal scouting conditions (aka, what we call standard play) just undermines the idea of figuring out standard play.
nono, don't missunderstand me. i was just clarifying why roach bling allin is somewhat coinflippy and isn't the most reliable way to punish 3 oc builds.
it's a good thing terran has builds that are safe vs everything making the right precautions. now zerg needs something like that too.
but i doubt that's going to happen without balance changes.
i said it somewhere before in this thread: the problem zerg has is surviving/not taking critical damage from the 65 scv constant rally push. you can't scout it cause up until that point everything is exactly the same for terran + it's not even close to allin, it gets 3-3 and 65 scv + 4m tech is all you need all game as terran. zerg NEEDS to have 4 base 5 hatch 80+ drones hive tech 3-3 carapace ultras infestors blings mass static defense 12 mutas to keep up with terran 4m lategame, so if they lose 4th base to that push the game is over.
because zerg needs to make so many drones and 65 scv rally will almost always kill the 4th and pretty much immediately win the game in an even game if terran doesn't mess up, regardless of how good zerg plays, as they will slowly drown in constant waves of ultra cost efficient 4m.
this is where the imbalance lies, and it's starting to turn out to be a pretty significant one.
i don't know how to fix this from a balance point without touching terran/zerg core units, or the mule and therefore possibly skewing lategame in zergs favor, but i really don't think metagame can solve this issue at this point, because zerg has no real choice but to get 4 bases 80+ drone and defend them with muta ling bling for reasons mentioned above.
roach bling is the obvious response but we discussed why it's an unreliable, coinflippy build that produces like 45% win rate at best and chances are that's only going to decrease when terran responses get more figured out.
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On July 28 2013 16:27 Sissors wrote:
Not to mention terran doesn't have less players overall than zerg. Actually very slightly more. However strangely all those players of that horribly OP race are in bronze, while the utterly broken zerg race is overrepresented in the higher leagues. But from gold up to GM zerg is better represented than terran.
The hell? Why does it matter what race dominates what rank as long as we're not talking about progammer levels? Whatever happens in ladder is not relevant...we're talking progammer levels and even more, we need to look at the top of the progamer in order to balance the game. You DON'T balance the game from bottom up, you do it from top down, it's common sense dude, stop being so defensive with terrible logic.
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On July 28 2013 22:31 GhostOwl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 16:27 Sissors wrote:
Not to mention terran doesn't have less players overall than zerg. Actually very slightly more. However strangely all those players of that horribly OP race are in bronze, while the utterly broken zerg race is overrepresented in the higher leagues. But from gold up to GM zerg is better represented than terran. The hell? Why does it matter what race dominates what rank as long as we're not talking about progammer levels? Whatever happens in ladder is not relevant...we're talking progammer levels and even more, we need to look at the top of the progamer in order to balance the game. You DON'T balance the game from bottom up, you do it from top down, it's common sense dude, stop being so defensive with terrible logic.
I hope Blizzard doesn't do this to a fault because quite frankly then we would have zero foreigner Terrans at a pro level.
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On July 28 2013 23:08 Lt.Roosevelt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 22:31 GhostOwl wrote:On July 28 2013 16:27 Sissors wrote:
Not to mention terran doesn't have less players overall than zerg. Actually very slightly more. However strangely all those players of that horribly OP race are in bronze, while the utterly broken zerg race is overrepresented in the higher leagues. But from gold up to GM zerg is better represented than terran. The hell? Why does it matter what race dominates what rank as long as we're not talking about progammer levels? Whatever happens in ladder is not relevant...we're talking progammer levels and even more, we need to look at the top of the progamer in order to balance the game. You DON'T balance the game from bottom up, you do it from top down, it's common sense dude, stop being so defensive with terrible logic. I hope Blizzard doesn't do this to a fault because quite frankly then we would have zero foreigner Terrans at a pro level.
Well, if that's what it takes, foreigner scene can die all together for the sake of Korean balance. But that's just me... I don't think the current situation is that dire though.
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without foreign scene there pretty much would be no sc2 as a major esports title.
also that whole thought is based on the belief that terran is harder to play than the other races, which is just false.
you could make an argument that this is true in WOL, but it's simply not the case in hots.
before anyone asks: yes i have played terran quite a bit.
also nobody wants to make it harder, just less effective at some points that are deemed too good. those things, even when there are certain correlations, for the most part are two separate things.
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On July 28 2013 23:44 willstertben wrote:
without foreign scene there pretty much would be no sc2 as a major esports title.
also that whole thought is based on the belief that terran is harder to play than the other races, which is just false.
you could make an argument that this is true in WOL, but it's simply not the case in hots.
before anyone asks: yes i have played terran quite a bit.
also nobody wants to make it harder, just less effective at some points that are deemed too good. those things, even when there are certain correlations, for the most part are two separate things.
Nope, in a game where the skillcap is unreachable it is exactly the same "how hard" a race is to play and "how strong" a race is. If a thing gets worse and a player can just equalize that by playing better (without actually getting better), he simply didn't use his full potential before the nerf.
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On July 28 2013 21:54 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 21:17 Big J wrote:On July 28 2013 20:11 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 20:04 TheDwf wrote:On July 28 2013 20:02 plogamer wrote:
Roach bane against triple CC is a legit response to a proper scout. It's not a coin-flip. Zergs usually do it blindly. it's not about that, it's about terrans ability to still hold it convincingly after going 3 oc when they prepare accordingly. zerg has to do lots of damage with this attack, otherwise they'll just die to a marine rally push. yes, that's why 3OC is a standard strategy. It can hold everything when adjusted accordingly. Would you rather play a game that is solely decided by blind decisions that are 50:50? Because that is what it sounds like. If Zerg doesn't go roach/baneling, yes, they may be ever-so-slightly behind with the standard responses right now. And yes, maybe there are not good enough responses out there (which we still have to wait and see; balance has been quite OK in most tournaments) and then either the game devolves too much into that coinflippy opening battle (which I hope would be adjusted), or blizzard has to adjust something due to imbalance. But calling the strategy too strong because it is playable with good sucess under normal scouting conditions (aka, what we call standard play) just undermines the idea of figuring out standard play. nono, don't missunderstand me. i was just clarifying why roach bling allin is somewhat coinflippy and isn't the most reliable way to punish 3 oc builds. it's a good thing terran has builds that are safe vs everything making the right precautions. now zerg needs something like that too. but i doubt that's going to happen without balance changes. i said it somewhere before in this thread: the problem zerg has is surviving/not taking critical damage from the 65 scv constant rally push. you can't scout it cause up until that point everything is exactly the same for terran + it's not even close to allin, it gets 3-3 and 65 scv + 4m tech is all you need all game as terran. zerg NEEDS to have 4 base 5 hatch 80+ drones hive tech 3-3 carapace ultras infestors blings mass static defense 12 mutas to keep up with terran 4m lategame, so if they lose 4th base to that push the game is over. because zerg needs to make so many drones and 65 scv rally will almost always kill the 4th and pretty much immediately win the game in an even game if terran doesn't mess up, regardless of how good zerg plays, as they will slowly drown in constant waves of ultra cost efficient 4m. this is where the imbalance lies, and it's starting to turn out to be a pretty significant one. i don't know how to fix this from a balance point without touching terran/zerg core units, or the mule and therefore possibly skewing lategame in zergs favor, but i really don't think metagame can solve this issue at this point, because zerg has no real choice but to get 4 bases 80+ drone and defend them with muta ling bling for reasons mentioned above. roach bling is the obvious response but we discussed why it's an unreliable, coinflippy build that produces like 45% win rate at best and chances are that's only going to decrease when terran responses get more figured out.
The only player who makes the 3 base parade push look unbeatable in Innovation though, and maybe Flash.
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On July 28 2013 23:57 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 23:44 willstertben wrote:
without foreign scene there pretty much would be no sc2 as a major esports title.
also that whole thought is based on the belief that terran is harder to play than the other races, which is just false.
you could make an argument that this is true in WOL, but it's simply not the case in hots.
before anyone asks: yes i have played terran quite a bit.
also nobody wants to make it harder, just less effective at some points that are deemed too good. those things, even when there are certain correlations, for the most part are two separate things.
Nope, in a game where the skillcap is unreachable it is exactly the same "how hard" a race is to play and "how strong" a race is. If a thing gets worse and a player can just equalize that by playing better (without actually getting better), he simply didn't use his full potential before the nerf.
nope.
let me explain the difference:
imagine something really hard to execute, but when its done successfully it will win 80% of the time.
now imagine something really easy to do, so easy even your grandma could execute it, that will win 40% of the time.
the 1st one is imbalanced, but hard to execute.
the 2nd one is underpowered, but easy to do.
there is a correlation, but ones impact on the other is way lower than the 'value' you changed for it.
makes sense?
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EPT
