|
On July 28 2013 15:38 TheRabidDeer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:31 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Oh, now you are saying that you don't conclusion? Then why the heck are you even trying to argue anything here? How about you stop posting if you aren't going to say anything anyway? Sorry, you said my conclusion was from a small sample size. I thought you knew my conclusion already, it seems you dont. I will restate it again for you: I think there is a possibility that the matchup favors terrans and my primary idea is that the widow mine needs to have multiple areas of AoE damage like the siege tank. This is my conclusion and concept idea to maybe fix it if there is in fact an issue with balance. I have said this specifically before already, I thought you wouldve seen it since you knew what my conclusion was. The reason I am citing what I am is because I believe that the imbalance is primarily at the very top of play. The very top of play is important to me, because I dont want it to be considered an upset for a zerg to beat a terran. I like watching premier league and dont have enough time to watch everything else. Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:33 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:32 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:26 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans.
Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Really. Don't play games. This is online, just be straight. I don't know why you've been bemoaning these stats with terms like overwhelming and absurd. I am not playing games, I have stated my conclusion already... which is not very conclusive. I also dont get why you are afraid of adjectives. Afraid? More like annoyed. Sorry that I use descriptive words when typing?
Because people ask about things that they don't know about is too far fetched, right?
Oh great, so now we should start handling WM nerfs, because someone feels like there is a possibility that match up favors terran. While citing a extremely small sample sized data. Isn't that just rich?
You do realize that they very top stats are always going to be skewed, since not only is the sample size really small, but also players skill affects the most. You are making a huge deal about something when you don't have anything but extremely small, skewed sample size to back it up and here we are already thinking how we should be changing widow mine.
When you are going to propose something at least have more data to back it up, right now your argument holds as much water as bucket without a bottom.
|
On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion?
On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:
At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs.
Doesn't seem like a tentative or uncertain conclusion. Just one with a very small sample size for support.
|
On July 28 2013 14:26 Wingblade wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 06:12 Viserion wrote:On July 28 2013 04:11 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 00:47 Orek wrote:On July 28 2013 00:21 Sissors wrote:
And now I can also post a screenshot of my win ratio being worst vs zerg and best vs toss. It isn't THE evidence, and it also isn't evidence at all. It only proofs your best matchup is TvZ (after ZvT). It doesnt proof anything regarding balance, let alone it being 'utterly broken'. If you think N=1 statistics have any relevance then it is better if you just stay aways from stats.
Quite frankly what else I noticed from that page: That is yet again indicates that SC2 players are really loyal. I have played MMO, RTS and FPS games. In every one of those games, a large group of players ran towards whatever was strongest at that moment. Could be gear in MMOs, weapons in FPS, or races in an RTS. Yet of all those games, apparantly only SC2 is different. The most games you played were vs zerg. The least vs terran. SC2 ranks shows a similar image. So that surprises me a bit, considering in every other game people run to whatever is OP, yet in SC2 all those zerg players so incredibly loyal to their race they keep playing it despite it being utterly broken. And not only that, also no one runs to terran race, despite that terran apparantly has easy time considering how OP they are. It was different during WoL. Early WoL: Terran was considered OP, Most played race = Terran End of WoL: Zerg was considered OP, Most played race = Zerg I guess Zerg underperformance in HotS started only recently. So, it might take a few more months until some of them switch to another race. Actually Zerg was least played race whole WoL but was much closer to other races at the end of it. Protoss was most played race for most of the time (outside of beginnig where Terran was more played) http://www.sc2ranks.com/stats/raceYes that is true, however, terran is the least represented race from Platinum to Grandmaster globally at this moment, and it´s been like that for a long time. Less players overall = less players in each league. Working as intended.
Actually this is not how ladder looks like or ever looked like.
|
Not to mention terran doesn't have less players overall than zerg. Actually very slightly more. However strangely all those players of that horribly OP race are in bronze, while the utterly broken zerg race is overrepresented in the higher leagues. But from gold up to GM zerg is better represented than terran.
|
While I do agree that Zerg has to play well to be able to win against widow mine/bio at the highest level, I think that 'issues' in PvZ are even more pronounced. The level of harassment, micro, multi-tasking, and imagination required from Protoss players to be able to win against standard macro Zerg play is unreasonably high. Basically the Protoss player has to be much more than a little better than his Zerg opponent to be able to convincingly win, while the reverse is not true. No surprise that Zerg claims another major tournament win at IEM and Protoss still fail to get tournament wins. Protoss is, and remains, the gimmick 2 base race that keeps ladder stats at acceptable levels by hoping the opponents fail to scout some new and exciting all ins.
|
On July 28 2013 15:56 Mehukannu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:38 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:31 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
Z wins
DRG vs skyhigh
life vs kop
life vs jjakji
curious vs bang
effort vs yoda
true vs keen
songduri vs sC
T wins
dream vs roro
reality vs kangho
mkp vs shine
gumiho vs soo
Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang?
EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32
12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning
4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Oh, now you are saying that you don't conclusion? Then why the heck are you even trying to argue anything here? How about you stop posting if you aren't going to say anything anyway? Sorry, you said my conclusion was from a small sample size. I thought you knew my conclusion already, it seems you dont. I will restate it again for you: I think there is a possibility that the matchup favors terrans and my primary idea is that the widow mine needs to have multiple areas of AoE damage like the siege tank. This is my conclusion and concept idea to maybe fix it if there is in fact an issue with balance. I have said this specifically before already, I thought you wouldve seen it since you knew what my conclusion was. The reason I am citing what I am is because I believe that the imbalance is primarily at the very top of play. The very top of play is important to me, because I dont want it to be considered an upset for a zerg to beat a terran. I like watching premier league and dont have enough time to watch everything else. On July 28 2013 15:33 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:32 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:26 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose.
I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Really. Don't play games. This is online, just be straight. I don't know why you've been bemoaning these stats with terms like overwhelming and absurd. I am not playing games, I have stated my conclusion already... which is not very conclusive. I also dont get why you are afraid of adjectives. Afraid? More like annoyed. Sorry that I use descriptive words when typing? Because people ask about things that they don't know about is too far fetched, right? Oh great, so now we should start handling WM nerfs, because someone feels like there is a possibility that match up favors terran. While citing a extremely small sample sized data. Isn't that just rich? You do realize that they very top stats are always going to be skewed, since not only is the sample size really small, but also players skill affects the most. You are making a huge deal about something when you don't have anything but extremely small, skewed sample size to back it up and here we are already thinking how we should be changing widow mine. When you are going to propose something at least have more data to back it up, right now your argument holds as much water as bucket without a bottom.
You asked something? All I saw were statements.
I also never said that a nerf needs to happen now. The key word "possibility" means that a change "may" need to happen. Not that a change "does" need to happen. If in the next season zergs continue to be unable to beat top terrans, there "will" be a problem that "does" need a change regardless of the small sample size. There will have to be a change to protect the validity of the WCS.
On July 28 2013 16:14 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)?
So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:
At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. Doesn't seem like a tentative or uncertain conclusion. Just one with a very small sample size for support.
I dont think that this is an invalid conclusion.
Flash has an 80%+ winrate
Innovation has an 80%+ winrate
Dream has a 71%
Bbyong, Fantasy and others are 67% or higher
For zergs, the only one I have seen above 70% is life, and hes somehow at 82%. Soulkey is only at 61%. Roro is at 25%, DRG is at 38%, effort is 41%, shine is 43%. How many zergs have a 65%+ winrate in HotS against terrans?
My conclusion for the very top level seems consistent with these numbers. Whether things are actually imbalanced, is yet to be seen. Because as I have said repeatedly, there is a possibility. Next season is probably the big clincher for me, if zergs ever face terrans.
|
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins.
|
On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins.
We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord.
|
On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 12:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 11:49 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 11:28 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
The nested quote says that since foreign zergs are doing great, while korean zergs are faring less than great, then zergs need a nerf because of the foreign success.
This means the opposite must be true: If foreign terrans are doing poorly, then terrans must need a buff even though korean terrans are doing fine. Korean Zergs are faring "less than great"? Just speak straight man. You think Zergs need help? I think it's a little soon to come to the conclusion that Zerg is in need of buffs, or that Terran is in need of nerfs. I haven't seen -all- the TvZs so far. But from what I've seen in major tournaments, the games have been won by the better player. I think it is a possibility. I stated earlier that my preferable change would be to give widow mines a multiple stage AoE like siege tanks. So it deals less damage the farther away from the middle, that way z doesnt lose 10 banes and some lings to 1 hit. I mean, just looking at premier league, things look grim. 5 zergs advanced from the RO32, 3 of which were in triple zerg groups (so 1 was guaranteed out). Soo is the only one that got out by beating the other races instead of the zergs, and Kangho got out by beating Jangbi. 2 zergs advanced from the RO16, and it was another triple zerg group. None advanced from the RO8 with Symbol being the only zerg to take a game, and it was only 1 game. The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs.
no it wasnt:
http://www.aligulac.com/reports/
it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg.
btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge.
|
On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 12:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 11:49 plogamer wrote:
[quote]
Korean Zergs are faring "less than great"? Just speak straight man. You think Zergs need help?
I think it's a little soon to come to the conclusion that Zerg is in need of buffs, or that Terran is in need of nerfs. I haven't seen -all- the TvZs so far. But from what I've seen in major tournaments, the games have been won by the better player. I think it is a possibility. I stated earlier that my preferable change would be to give widow mines a multiple stage AoE like siege tanks. So it deals less damage the farther away from the middle, that way z doesnt lose 10 banes and some lings to 1 hit. I mean, just looking at premier league, things look grim. 5 zergs advanced from the RO32, 3 of which were in triple zerg groups (so 1 was guaranteed out). Soo is the only one that got out by beating the other races instead of the zergs, and Kangho got out by beating Jangbi. 2 zergs advanced from the RO16, and it was another triple zerg group. None advanced from the RO8 with Symbol being the only zerg to take a game, and it was only 1 game. The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 10 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge.
First we probably should wait till we actually see results for July especially since not long time ago there was a patch which nerfed unit that also Zerg players cried a lot about.
And i agree 55% is no acceptable but at the same graph trend was pretty clear for last two months.
|
On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 12:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 11:49 plogamer wrote:
[quote]
Korean Zergs are faring "less than great"? Just speak straight man. You think Zergs need help?
I think it's a little soon to come to the conclusion that Zerg is in need of buffs, or that Terran is in need of nerfs. I haven't seen -all- the TvZs so far. But from what I've seen in major tournaments, the games have been won by the better player. I think it is a possibility. I stated earlier that my preferable change would be to give widow mines a multiple stage AoE like siege tanks. So it deals less damage the farther away from the middle, that way z doesnt lose 10 banes and some lings to 1 hit. I mean, just looking at premier league, things look grim. 5 zergs advanced from the RO32, 3 of which were in triple zerg groups (so 1 was guaranteed out). Soo is the only one that got out by beating the other races instead of the zergs, and Kangho got out by beating Jangbi. 2 zergs advanced from the RO16, and it was another triple zerg group. None advanced from the RO8 with Symbol being the only zerg to take a game, and it was only 1 game. The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge.
I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL.
|
On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord.
nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular.
then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win.
On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 12:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
I think it is a possibility. I stated earlier that my preferable change would be to give widow mines a multiple stage AoE like siege tanks. So it deals less damage the farther away from the middle, that way z doesnt lose 10 banes and some lings to 1 hit. I mean, just looking at premier league, things look grim.
5 zergs advanced from the RO32, 3 of which were in triple zerg groups (so 1 was guaranteed out). Soo is the only one that got out by beating the other races instead of the zergs, and Kangho got out by beating Jangbi.
2 zergs advanced from the RO16, and it was another triple zerg group.
None advanced from the RO8 with Symbol being the only zerg to take a game, and it was only 1 game. The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL.
it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff.
|
I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL.
He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck.
|
On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:Show nested quote +I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck.
but protoss doesn't suck. protoss is really successful right now.
|
but protoss doesn't suck. protoss is really successful right now.
I wonder what your definition of succesful is. A lot of third and fourth place finishes? Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
|
On July 28 2013 19:10 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:07 xyzz wrote:I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. He made a pretty compelling argument with statistics that during the 'horribly broken bl/infestor' age the large sample size statistics were similarly in favour of Zerg as they are favoring Terran now. An argument which you decided to ignore because you can't argue against it, so naturally you just decided to say you can't take him seriously. Personally I find the whole situation hilarious when we have Zerg and Terran players fighting for dominance and demanding changes against eachother, while it's a foregone conclusion that Protoss just sucks and should continue to suck. but protoss doesn't suck. protoss is really successful right now.
I would say that the whole design of protoss sucks.. It is true though that we haven´t had many toss champions in ages.
|
On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 12:51 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
The Ro32 was Bo1s, and therefore irrelevant for balance. Flash knocked out two Zergs there, as did First and Trap. In the Ro16 Kangho was the only Zerg to lose to a Terran, and he beat one as well. Maru outplayed Symbol, and Innovation is Innovation. That's this entire S2 Korea Premier league, and I don't see any TvZ imbalance in those results. What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)? So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff.
Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 43 % in January, seems legit.
|
On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:26 TheRabidDeer wrote:
[quote]
What do you have to say about so far hyvaa/life being the only zerg that dropped from the premier league to be returning to it next season? And of the other 2 zergs going back up, 1 was almost a full zerg bracket (only skyhigh being the offrace) and True (who did crush pretty much everybody)?
So 9 dropped down, and 1 returns (so far). And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 42 % in January, seems legit.
which is kind of proof that win rates aren't the end all be all when discussing balance, huh?
|
On July 28 2013 19:16 willstertben wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 19:15 keglu wrote:On July 28 2013 19:06 willstertben wrote:On July 28 2013 18:02 NarutO wrote:On July 28 2013 17:37 Dwayn wrote:
I think one of the reasons for ZvT being imbalanced is that it's so hard to go up to hive reasonably fast against an aggressive terran without dying. So you stick on this bling/muta composition to stay alive and that works quite well, until the 3/3 kicks in for the terran and then it gets really tough. The terran almost always get his 3/3 a lot faster than the zerg, often before hive has even started.
That's probably also the reason we see less and less macro games from zerg and so many bane/roach all ins. We saw tons of roach/bane allins in WoL as well when Zerg ruled supreme with infestor/broodlord. nah. those were just the initial response to 3 oc builds when they first got popular. then terran started doing hellion banshee and nobody went roach bling allins anymore, banshee shut it down way too hard. quick 4 base and 11 min hive BL rush ling bling infestor was way easier and safer build to get a win. On July 28 2013 18:47 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 18:21 Decendos wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. no it wasnt: http://www.aligulac.com/reports/it was 52% which was the "worst" winrate for T in TvZ and in some days we will see that number go up again to something like 54-56% probably which would mean the 5th month that is decently T favored and therefore more than enough to SLIGHTLY buff zerg. btw in BL infestor days only 2 months were 58% winrate for zerg while all other months were around 55% which was considered "horribly broken". in HOTS we had june which was 52% while all other months were around 55%...considered "balanced" by T players lol...10% difference between 2 races over such a big time frame is HUGE. it means one race gets 1 free win per 20 games which is insane for people with a bit of statistical knowledge. I can't take you seriously when you claim that TvZ in HotS is as imbalanced as TvZ in WoL. it is though. after infestor nerf and raven buff. Infestors buff - december 2012, TvZ went from 45% in december to 42 % in January, seems legit. which is kind of proof that win rates aren't the end all be all when discussing balance, huh?
So what you base you statement "it was post infestor nerf" on?
|
On July 28 2013 16:58 TheRabidDeer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 15:56 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 15:38 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:31 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans.
Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Oh, now you are saying that you don't conclusion? Then why the heck are you even trying to argue anything here? How about you stop posting if you aren't going to say anything anyway? Sorry, you said my conclusion was from a small sample size. I thought you knew my conclusion already, it seems you dont. I will restate it again for you: I think there is a possibility that the matchup favors terrans and my primary idea is that the widow mine needs to have multiple areas of AoE damage like the siege tank. This is my conclusion and concept idea to maybe fix it if there is in fact an issue with balance. I have said this specifically before already, I thought you wouldve seen it since you knew what my conclusion was. The reason I am citing what I am is because I believe that the imbalance is primarily at the very top of play. The very top of play is important to me, because I dont want it to be considered an upset for a zerg to beat a terran. I like watching premier league and dont have enough time to watch everything else. On July 28 2013 15:33 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:32 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:26 plogamer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:
[quote]
Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand..
TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? Really. Don't play games. This is online, just be straight. I don't know why you've been bemoaning these stats with terms like overwhelming and absurd. I am not playing games, I have stated my conclusion already... which is not very conclusive. I also dont get why you are afraid of adjectives. Afraid? More like annoyed. Sorry that I use descriptive words when typing? Because people ask about things that they don't know about is too far fetched, right? Oh great, so now we should start handling WM nerfs, because someone feels like there is a possibility that match up favors terran. While citing a extremely small sample sized data. Isn't that just rich? You do realize that they very top stats are always going to be skewed, since not only is the sample size really small, but also players skill affects the most. You are making a huge deal about something when you don't have anything but extremely small, skewed sample size to back it up and here we are already thinking how we should be changing widow mine. When you are going to propose something at least have more data to back it up, right now your argument holds as much water as bucket without a bottom. You asked something? All I saw were statements. I also never said that a nerf needs to happen now. The key word "possibility" means that a change "may" need to happen. Not that a change "does" need to happen. If in the next season zergs continue to be unable to beat top terrans, there "will" be a problem that "does" need a change regardless of the small sample size. There will have to be a change to protect the validity of the WCS. Show nested quote +On July 28 2013 16:14 ChristianS wrote:On July 28 2013 15:24 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 15:22 Mehukannu wrote:On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:34 Rhaegal wrote:On July 28 2013 14:29 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 14:02 Terrasmith wrote:On July 28 2013 13:53 TheRabidDeer wrote:On July 28 2013 13:41 Terrasmith wrote:
[quote]
And the only two Terrans who are returning are Bbyong and (possibly) Flash. That's not entirely relevant. Across all of the OSL challenger league ZvT matches, Zerg has won 7 Bo3s and Terran 4. Z wins DRG vs skyhigh life vs kop life vs jjakji curious vs bang effort vs yoda true vs keen songduri vs sC T wins dream vs roro reality vs kangho mkp vs shine gumiho vs soo Who are skyhigh, kop, or bang? EDIT: And it is most relevant because 9 zergs dropped while only 1 T dropped from the RO32 12 zergs dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning 4 terrans dropped to challenger league from premier, 1 (maybe 2) returning Premier league also started with 14 Zergs to 8 Terrans. Mamuri and Songduri are no better known than the Terrans that you listed; what's your point? 87.5% advance rate is absurd. If 12 zergs advanced from the RO32, hell wouldve broken loose. I also didnt even include mamuri, I missed that one. So you were wrong even, 5 terrans, not 4. Regardless, my point was that 4 of the 7 zerg wins were overwhelmingly in favor of the zerg. If the zerg lost those, then I would declare without a doubt that there is imbalance in the matchup. It didnt happen though, so it is only a possibility. Absurdly small sample size, and you're using words like "overwhelmingly" and "absurd". I just don't understand.. TvZ was 50% in June ffs. 80% chance of winning, is an overwhelming chance 87.5% advancing is an absurd amount I am not referencing statistics, so sample size isnt what I am discussing (I wouldnt mention only WCS kr if I wanted statistical sample sizes). At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. And I mean TOP level. For some reason there is a huge difference amongst those in the top 20 (or even the top 10) when compared to the next 20 below them (in a tournament setting). You get your conclusion from a small sample size which pretty much makes it relevant. The only thing ''absurd'' here is that you draw your conclusions from a ''overwhelmingly'' small amount of data. All that can be said is that better players wins. Win rates sure as hell isn't going to stay at 50% in a tournament, probably never will. What is my conclusion? On July 28 2013 14:55 TheRabidDeer wrote:
At the VERY top level, terrans beat zergs. Doesn't seem like a tentative or uncertain conclusion. Just one with a very small sample size for support. I dont think that this is an invalid conclusion. Flash has an 80%+ winrate Innovation has an 80%+ winrate Dream has a 71% Bbyong, Fantasy and others are 67% or higher For zergs, the only one I have seen above 70% is life, and hes somehow at 82%. Soulkey is only at 61%. Roro is at 25%, DRG is at 38%, effort is 41%, shine is 43%. How many zergs have a 65%+ winrate in HotS against terrans? My conclusion for the very top level seems consistent with these numbers. Whether things are actually imbalanced, is yet to be seen. Because as I have said repeatedly, there is a possibility. Next season is probably the big clincher for me, if zergs ever face terrans.
That indeed shows very well why all those statistics of only WCS KR premier league + proleague are pretty useless. If Flash tomorrow decides to give up on e-sports, and innovation thinks LoL is a better idea, then suddenly terran is alot worse in those stats. You simply cannot possibly use statistics of such an incredibly small sample size to base balance on.
And how many zergs have 65%+ win rate vs terran? I expect on the ladder above gold more zergs than terrans in the reverse situation, simply because significantly more zergs play on the ladder. Stays special huh, all those people playing their horribly broken race without a chance to win.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
