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Fantasy GSTL Draft Guide: Season 1

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
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Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-23 04:41:37
June 22 2011 05:42 GMT
#1
The sequel to the Fantasy E-Sports Draft Guide series.
A tired soul toils in face of sudden deadline. If only TL gives me a headup on these things...
  • To reduce confusion, purchase points are refered to as [image loading].
  • You can revise your fantasy team by clicking here


Fantasy GSTL
[image loading]
A fantasy league based on the revamped GomTV Team StarLeague, playable at http://www.teamliquid.net/fantasy/gstl/ . Team must be submitted by June 22nd.


Introduction

A fantasy league is a game where each participants, acting as virtual team owners, draft professional sports players to compete with others. Each fantasy team are scored by combining the actual statistics of players of a particular professional sport and ranked against the rest, using pre-determined scoring rules. Usually, the ranking of fantasy teams are finalized at the end of a play season, with the winner declared and sometimes awarded a token prize.

The game keeps the fans amused during the long regular season and adds a minor a personal stake in match-ups that fans would otherwise be uninterested in. This guide provides detailed statistics and analysis to maximize your chances for winning season 1 of TeamLiquid's Fantasy GSTL.



More Information
  • GOM GSTL Season 1 Format
  • Fantasy GSTL Ruleset
  • Fantasy GSTL Discussion
  • GSTL player report by VGhost
  • Computing the Best GSTL Team
  • Liquidepedia - GSTL
  • TLPD Teams, Korean



Team Selection

[image loading] [image loading] [image loading] [image loading] [image loading] [image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading] [image loading] [image loading]

The players available for the fantasy draft are
:
  • 9[image loading] - 4 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - (T)MMA

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle - (T)mvp

    [image loading] StarTale - (T)Bomber

    [image loading] Team SCV Life

    [image loading] Old Generations - (P)MC

    [image loading] For Our Utopia

    [image loading] ZeNEX

    [image loading]
    MVP

    [image loading]
    Prime

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo

    [image loading] FXOpen

    [image loading] F.United
  • 8[image loading] - 5 players available
    + Show Spoiler +

    [image loading] SlayerS -

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle - (T)LosirA (Z)NesTea

    [image loading] StarTale -

    [image loading] Team SCV Life -

    [image loading] Old Generations -

    [image loading] For Our Utopia -

    [image loading] ZeNEX -

    [image loading]
    MVP - (Z)DongRaeGu

    [image loading]
    Prime - (T)MarineKing (T)Polt

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo -

    [image loading] FXOpen -

    [image loading] F.United -
  • 7[image loading] - 2 players available
    + Show Spoiler +

    [image loading] SlayerS -

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle -

    [image loading] StarTale -

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (T)aLive

    [image loading] Old Generations -

    [image loading] For Our Utopia - (T)sC

    [image loading] ZeNEX -

    [image loading]
    MVP -

    [image loading]
    Prime -

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo -

    [image loading] FXOpen -

    [image loading] F.United -
  • 6[image loading] - 3 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - (T)Ryung

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle -

    [image loading] StarTale -

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (P)TesteR

    [image loading] Old Generations -

    [image loading] For Our Utopia - (Z)Leenock

    [image loading] ZeNEX -

    [image loading]
    MVP -

    [image loading]
    Prime -

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo -

    [image loading] FXOpen -

    [image loading] F.United -
  • 5[image loading] - 10 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - (P)Alicia (T)GanZi

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle -

    [image loading] StarTale - (Z)July

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (P)SangHo

    [image loading] Old Generations - (T)TOP (Z)Zenio

    [image loading] For Our Utopia -

    [image loading] ZeNEX -

    [image loading]
    MVP - (R)GuineaPig

    [image loading]
    Prime -

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo - (P)San

    [image loading] FXOpen -

    [image loading] F.United - (T)Lyn (Z)Moon
  • 4[image loading] - 15 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - (Z)Min

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle -

    [image loading] StarTale - (Z)Curious (P)Squirtle

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (Z)FruitDealer (T)Clide

    [image loading] Old Generations - (P)InCa (T)NaDa

    [image loading] For Our Utopia - (T)GuMiho

    [image loading] ZeNEX - (Z)Line (T)Byun

    [image loading]
    MVP - (T)Genius

    [image loading]
    Prime - (P)HongUn (T)Maka

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo -

    [image loading] FXOpen -

    [image loading] F.United - (P)NaNiwa (T)ThorZaIN
  • 3[image loading] - 16 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - (T)FrOzen

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle - (P)Younghwa (P)Seed

    [image loading] StarTale - (P)RainBOw (P)Virus

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (Z)RevivaL

    [image loading] Old Generations - (T)SuperNoVa

    [image loading] For Our Utopia - (P)Choya

    [image loading] ZeNEX - (Z)Kyrix

    [image loading]
    MVP - (T)Keen

    [image loading]
    Prime - (P)anypro (Z)Check

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo - (P)Sage

    [image loading] FXOpen - (Z)Sheth (P)Twilight

    [image loading] F.United - (T)Fenix
  • 2[image loading] - 24 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading] SlayerS - Taaeja (Z)YuGiOh (T)BoxeR

    [image loading] Incredible Miracle - (Z)Junwi (P)YoDa

    [image loading] StarTale - (Z)Ace (T)August

    [image loading] Team SCV Life - (T)PuMa

    [image loading] Old Generations - (T)TheStC (T)Ensnare

    [image loading] For Our Utopia - (Z)Lucky (T)TheBest

    [image loading] ZeNEX - (P)Puzzle (Z)CoCa

    [image loading]
    MVP - (P)Violet (T)Noblesse (P)HwangSin (P)Tails

    [image loading]
    Prime - (P)Lotze

    [image loading] New Star HoSeo - (P)Banbanssu (T)Jjakji (P)Tassadar

    [image loading] FXOpen - (T)mOoNan (T)qxc

    [image loading] F.United -
  • 1[image loading] - 92 players available
    + Show Spoiler +
    [image loading]

    SlayerS - (P)Brown (Z)Cella (Z)Drughead (Z)Fairy (Z)Gambler (P)Golden (T)Jys (P)Kuma (T)Lots (T)Milz (Z)Sleep (Z)Special (P)Tiffany

    [image loading]

    Incredible Miracle - (P)BBi dreamrtt (Z)HorroR (T)IMHappy (P)Ready (Z)True

    [image loading]

    StarTale - (P)max (Z)Parting (T)Sound (P)Tiger (Z)Ych

    [image loading]

    Team SCV Life - (T)Heart (P)Smart

    [image loading]

    Old Generations - (P)Carmel (T)Cezanne (Z)hero (P)HuK (T)Hyperdub (Z)J (T)Jinro (Z)JookTo (T)LittleBoy (Z)TheWinD (P)Vines

    [image loading]

    For Our Utopia - (T)Artist (P)Crane (P)Imori (T)Nuclear (Z)Shine (Z)Sirius (Z)Terious (T)TopClass (P)Weekend (T)kasyu

    [image loading]

    ZeNEX - (P)cOre (T)Cutter (P)FreeSaGa (T)Hack (T)IceCream (T)Issue (T)Jjun (Z)Life (Z)Naya (P)Paralyze (P)Yong

    [image loading]

    MVP - (P)Avenge (T)Aya DREAM (P)finale (T)Galaxy (P)Keeping (P)Lure (Z)Monster (P)NalZa (Z)Sniper (P)Vampire

    [image loading]

    Prime - (Z)AnnYeong BBongBBong (P)Classic (P)Creator (P)Daisy (Z)Gerrard (T)Hannibal (T)Libero (Z)Maru (P)Tankboy

    [image loading]

    New Star HoSeo - (Z)Fake (P)ggod (T)sculp (Z)Seal (P)Shuttle (T)SiaZenith

    [image loading]

    FXOpen - (P)Anthony (T)Filthy (P)OpTiKzErO (P)SLoG (Z)tgun (P)Wolf

    [image loading]

    F.United - (P)SocceR

Fantasy GSTL S1 consists of 12 pro-gamer teams and 171 draftable players with a league-wide salary totalling 406[image loading] (+46[image loading] total for pro-gamer teams). Each fantasy team is restricted to a salary of 36[image loading] to be divided between 8 players and a single pro-gamer team. Team salary ranges from 0[image loading] to 8[image loading], and player salary ranges from 1[image loading] to 9[image loading]. Additionally, participants are required to draft 3 players into an "anti-team" whose performance will be deducted from the fantasy team, with minimum salary of 13[image loading].



Scoring

+ Show Spoiler [Official rules] +
Player Scoring:
Lineup Appearance: +1 Point*
Game Win: +2 Points per win
Game Loss: -1 Point
2-Game Streak Break: +1 Point**
3-Game Streak Break: +2 Points**
Your Player's Team Wins: +1 Point***

Tie-breaks are decided by the team captain's score.

*Point given just for appearing in a match, regardless of win or loss. Only counts once, i.e. if MC goes 4-0, he still only gets 1 appearance point.
**Given when a pro-gamer defeats a pro-gamer on the opposing team who is on a two or three game winning streak. Streaks do not carry over between matches; all streaks must occur in the same match.
***This counts for all players on the team's roster, even if they did not play in the match.

Team Scoring:
4-0 Victory: 8 Points
4-1 Victory: 6 Points
4-2 Victory: 4 Points
4-3 Victory: 2 Points
3-4 Defeat: 1 Point
2-4 Defeat: 0 Points
1-4 Defeat: -1 Points
0-4 Defeat: -2 Points

Miscellaneous
Trade Tax: -1


A total of 35 match-ups (30 bo-7 regular season and 5 bo-9 playoffs) will be played during the 13-week season. Each pro-gamer team will play 5 of these series in regular season and up to 3 more in the playoffs. Each player can play from 0 to 4 maps in each series (5 in playoffs).

Each pro-gamer team can score from -2pts to +8pts in a single series (10 in playoffs) . Therefore, in a full season a team can score anywhere from -10pts (0-4 in every series) up to 70pts (4-0 in every series, 5-0 in playoffs) for a fantasy team. Actual points scored will be closer to middle of this range.

Each player can score from 0pts to 12pts each series (14 in the playoffs), therefore in a full season a single player can score anywhere from 0pts up to 102pts for a fantasy team. Note that points are correspondingly deducted for anti-team players. Actual points scored will be closer to the lower end of this range for majority of players.



Scheduling

[image loading]
[image loading]


Picking the right team

+ Show Spoiler [Team Salaries] +
  • 8[image loading] - [image loading]
  • 6[image loading] - [image loading] [image loading]
  • 5[image loading] - [image loading]
  • 4[image loading] - [image loading]
    [image loading]
    [image loading]

  • 3[image loading] - [image loading] [image loading]
  • 2[image loading] - [image loading]
  • 1[image loading] - [image loading]
  • 0[image loading] - [image loading]

Picking the right pro-gaming team is the most important decision in making your fantasy team. Team scoring is far less variant and teams are guaranteed to play 5-series, making them a much more reliable source of points. The [image loading] cost of viable teams have smaller range than player salaries, therefore salary considerations should not be a deterent for selection. Your pro-gamer team choice should simply the answer to this question:
Which team will win the GSTL?

Therefore the choices can be safely narrowed down to the two previous GSTL winners - SlayerS and Incredible Miracle.



Picking the right players

Each pro-gaming team differs significantly in the number of players they have. However, each team can only play at most 4 players per series. This means a significant numbers of the 171 draftable (and vast majority of the 1[image loading] -) players will not play in this season. These Benched players waste the supply and [image loading] spent on them. Good draft choices are those whom have good chance of being fielded, these can largely divided into two categories, Aces and Snipers.

The draftable players play for the following teams:
  • [image loading] SlayerS - 22 players, 51[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 9[image loading] (T)MMA
    • 6[image loading] (T)Ryung
    • 5[image loading] (P)Alicia (T)GanZi
    • 4[image loading] (Z)Min
    • 3[image loading] (T)FrOzen
    • 2[image loading] (T)Taeja (Z)YuGiOh (T)BoxeR
    • 1[image loading] (P)Brown (Z)Cella (Z)Drughead (Z)Fairy (Z)Gambler (P)Golden (T)Jys (P)Kuma (T)Lots (T)Milz (Z)Sleep (Z)Special (P)Tiffany
  • [image loading] Incredible Miracle - 13 players, 41[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 9[image loading] (T)mvp
    • 8[image loading] (T)LosirA (Z)NesTea
    • 3[image loading] (P)Younghwa (P)Seed
    • 2[image loading] (Z)Junwi (P)YoDa
    • 1[image loading] (P)BBi (T)dreamertt (Z)HorroR (T)IMHappy (P)Ready (Z)True
  • [image loading] StarTale - 13 players, 37[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 9[image loading] (T)Bomber
    • 5[image loading] (Z)July
    • 4[image loading] (Z)Curious (P)Squirtle
    • 3[image loading] (P)RainBOw (P)Virus
    • 2[image loading] (Z)Ace (T)August
    • 1[image loading] (P)max (Z)Parting (T)Sound (P)Tiger (Z)Ych
  • [image loading] Team SCV Life - 9 players, 33[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 7[image loading] (T)aLive
    • 6[image loading] (P)TesteR
    • 5[image loading] (P)SangHo
    • 4[image loading] (Z)FruitDealer (T)Clide
    • 3[image loading] (Z)RevivaL
    • 2[image loading] (T)PuMa
    • 1[image loading] (T)Heart (P)Smart
  • [image loading] Old Generations - 19 players, 45[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 9[image loading] (P)MC
    • 5[image loading] (T)TOP (Z)Zenio
    • 4[image loading] (P)InCa (T)NaDa
    • 3[image loading] (T)SuperNoVa
    • 2[image loading] (T)TheStC (T)Ensnare
    • 1[image loading] (P)Carmel (T)Cezanne (Z)hero (P)HuK (T)Hyperdub (Z)J (T)Jinro (Z)JookTo (T)LittleBoy (Z)TheWinD (P)Vines
  • [image loading] For Our Utopia - 16 players, 34[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 7[image loading] (T)sC
    • 6[image loading] (Z)Leenock
    • 4[image loading] (T)GuMiho
    • 3[image loading] (P)Choya
    • 2[image loading] (T)TheBest (Z)Lucky
    • 1[image loading] (T)Artist (P)Crane (P)Imori (T)Nuclear (Z)Shine (Z)Sirius (Z)Terious (T)TopClass (P)Weekend (T)kasyu
  • [image loading] ZeNEX - 16 players, 26[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 4[image loading] (Z)Line (T)Byun
    • 3[image loading] (Z)Kyrix
    • 2[image loading] (P)Puzzle (Z)CoCa
    • 1[image loading] (P)cOre (T)Cutter (P)FreeSaGa (T)Hack (T)IceCream (T)Issue (T)Jjun (Z)Life (Z)Naya (P)Paralyze (P)Yong
  • [image loading]
    MVP - 19 players, 39[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 8[image loading] (Z)DongRaeGu
    • 5[image loading] (R)GuineaPig
    • 4[image loading] (T)Genius
    • 3[image loading] (T)Keen
    • 2[image loading] (P)Violet (T)Noblesse (P)HwangSin (P)Tails
    • 1[image loading] (P)Avenge (T)Aya (T)Dream (P)finale (T)Galaxy (P)Keeping (P)Lure (Z)Monster (P)NalZa (Z)Sniper (P)Vampire
  • [image loading]
    Prime - 17 players, 42[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 8[image loading] (T)MarineKing (T)Polt
    • 4[image loading] (P)HongUn (T)Maka
    • 3[image loading] (P)anypro (Z)Check
    • 2[image loading] (P)Lotze
    • 1[image loading] (Z)AnnYeong (Z)BBoongBBoong (P)Classic (P)Creator (P)Daisy (Z)Gerrard (T)Hannibal (T)Libero (Z)Maru (P)Tankboy
  • [image loading] New Star HoSeo - 11 players, 20[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 5[image loading] (P)San
    • 3[image loading] (P)Sage
    • 2[image loading] (P)Banbanssu (T)Jjakji (P)Tassadar
    • 1[image loading] (Z)Fake (P)ggod (T)sculp (Z)Seal (P)Shuttle (T)SiaZenith
  • [image loading] FXOpen - 10 players, 16[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 3[image loading] (Z)Sheth (P)Twilight
    • 2[image loading] (T)mOoNan (T)qxc
    • 1[image loading] (P)Anthony (T)Filthy (P)OpTiKzErO (P)SLoG (Z)tgun (P)Wolf
  • [image loading] F.United - 6 players, 22[image loading]
    + Show Spoiler +
    • 5[image loading] (T)Lyn (Z)Moon
    • 4[image loading] (P)NaNiwa (T)ThorZaIN
    • 3[image loading] (T)Fenix
    • 1[image loading] (P)SocceR
Mark-ups: likely Aces, likely Snipers, likely Benched.


Some pro-gamer teams such as IM have multiple Aces, thus they will not necessarily be field in every series. This means the Ace's team is an important consideration (same is true with Snipers to a lesser extend). Additionally, Aces are generally cheaper in weaker teams, thus making them more affordable way for scoring points, all things equal.



Anti-Team Selection

Because of the scheduling and trade-rules, there's an unique, (near) optimal solution for the anti-team. Take a look at the above schedule. Team F.United does not play between week 1-5, which means their players ((Z)Moon -5, (T)Lyn -5, (T)ThorZaIN -4, (P)NaNiwa -4, (P)SocceR -1) cannot possibly incur a single point for those weeks. Therefore, the optimal solution for a 13[image loading] anti-team are Lyn, Thorzain, Naniwa (or Moon, Lyn, and Thorzain under certain contigencies). Since the trade-rule stipulates that you may make only one anti-team trade a week, simply swap out the anti-team players out as you approach week 6.

There are two concerns with this play. One is that it guarantees 3pts in trade penality. Second, and more serious, is that there may not be viable under-performing players to trade up for between week 4 and 6, thus you may become stuck with strong players in a small team that can result in serious penalties in your fantasy score.

In summary, this anti-team selection ploy is one that swaps five penalty-free weeks for potentially more risks down the season. However, these are the same types of risks that exists with any anti-team picks in the first place, so overall you're reducing the numbers of weeks where you'll at risk.

Reader counter-argument
On June 22 2011 15:06 Disquiet wrote:
Criticism of this strategy: You can only trade anti-team players for those of a higher value

You cannot trade out moon, lyn, thorzain etc. for an underperforming FXO player because their price will be too low. I'm not sure how the number of games to play will affect the price of players, all that I know is that it does have an effect. The price of players with more games still to play will either rise over time, or the price of those with games already played will fall, or both, I'm not sure of the mechanics here. Either way it will make it difficult to trade out your anti team for players that have exhibited poor performance in the first few weeks, and since F.United is a tiny team those players are very poor choices for an anti as they will likely play every match.
On June 22 2011 18:29 Scorch wrote:
In past Fantasy Proleagues, a player's trade value was

adjusted trade value * number of matches left to play,

where the adjusted trade value was calculated from a player's starting cost and performance in previous matches. A 5 cost player who underperforms may go down to, say, 3.2 points, or go up to a value of, for example, 8.1 if he rips it up.
This means that once F.United players get to play, other teams will already have played half their games, thus making F.United players relatively twice as valuable as players from other teams, and therefore almost impossible to trade out of your anti team.




Trading

The trade rules and valuation formulas are still a mystery to me. I'll appreciate pointers.
+ Show Spoiler +
Trading Rules
  • Between each week of games, you may trade players (swap a player for someone you don't have)
  • Player and team values will increase or decrease every week, depending on their performances.
  • Every player has a trade value, and you can only trade for players of lower value (higher value for anti-team)
  • You are limited to a maximum 2 Main Team and 1 Anti Team trades per week
  • Trades do not carry over from week to week if unused
  • Your team captain cannot be traded
  • Each time you trade, you will be assessed a -1 point trade tax


Basic Trading Strategy
  • Check the schedules each week! You'll want to know what teams are playing (and thus, which players are likely to appear)
  • Don't make trades just for sake of making trades, as they cost you trade tax points and you may get stuck with a player you don't want
  • The trade price formula takes into account number of matches remaining -- so players with more matches remaining will have higher prices
  • You must trade for players with less value, but try to minimize the value loss. For example, if you trade someone worth 30 for someone worth 20, next week you can only trade the 20 for someone less. It's much better to trade the 30 for someone worth 29.


You are allowed up to 2 player trades and 1 anti-team trades a week, noncumulative. Trades are determined not by the purchase salary of the players, but instead a floating valuation that is a function of [image loading], performance, and series remaining. These conditions mean that trades should be made strategically and not taken lightly. The most important use will be to cut your loses early in a bad bet.

The emphasis on player performance also means that the first week performance affect valuation significantly. This opens door for a strategy where you spent a significant supply in undervalued, low [image loading] players and trade them upwards with the increased valuation, effectively increasing your salary cap.



Recommendations

  • You have only about 30[image loading] for 8 players. Which means you can only pick at most 3 Aces to fill your fantasy team. Consider a balanced roster with 2-3 Aces, 3-5 Snipers, 1-2 Bench warmers.

  • Look for value in weaker/smaller teams. Because of their small roster, players like (P)SocceR, (P)Tassadar, and (P)OpTiKzErO are almost guaranteed to be fielded for F.United, HoSeo, and FXOpen.

  • Use trades strategically and remember the floating valuation changes week-to-week. Dump your bad bets early and fast.

  • Double check the schedule. FXOpen's and F.United's are obvious, but do you know that HoSeo plays all its games within a 7-week period or that ZeNEX plays 4 of its match-ups within a 5-week period?

  • Benched players only score (a maximum of 1pts) if their team wins a series. Avoid them unless you're high on supply and low in [image loading].

  • If you have to pick a Benched player, consider picking up one on an otherwise expensive team like TSL for free team-win points.

  • All other things being equal, players in smaller team have better chance of being in the line-up, thus more likely to scoring points.

  • Generally speaking, Aces are generally more expensive than Snipers. Identifying snipers are the key to a successful fantasy team.




TL; DR

  • Draft: IM as your pro-gamer team.

  • Anti-team: pick (T)Lyn, (P)NaNiwa, and (T)ThorZaIN. Switch them in week 4-6.

  • Draft: (P)Younghwa (T)GuMiho (Z)Sheth (Z)Ace (P)HuK
Thank God and gunrun.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
June 22 2011 05:42 GMT
#2
This is the first draft of a work in progress. Looking forward to suggestions, criticisms, and revisions.
Thank God and gunrun.
Disquiet
Profile Joined January 2011
Australia628 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 06:08:52
June 22 2011 06:06 GMT
#3
Because of the scheduling and trade-rules, there's an unique, (near) optimal solution for the antiteam.

As observed in the above schedule, Team F.United does not play between week 1-5, which means their players (Moon -5, Lyn -5, ThorZaIN -4, NaNiwa -4, SocceR -1) cannot possibly incur a single point for those weeks. Therefore, the optimal solution for a 13 antiteam are Lyn, Thorzain, Naniwa (or Moon, Lyn, and Thorzain under certain contigencies).

Since the trade-rule stipulate that you can only trade one antiteam a week, simply swap the players out for an underperforming or FXOpen player (which will not play between week 6-10) as you approach week 6. The only down side to this play is incurring 3pt trade deduction.


Criticism of this strategy: You can only trade anti-team players for those of a higher value

You cannot trade out moon, lyn, thorzain etc. for an underperforming FXO player because their price will be too low. I'm not sure how the number of games to play will affect the price of players, all that I know is that it does have an effect. The price of players with more games still to play will either rise over time, or the price of those with games already played will fall, or both, I'm not sure of the mechanics here. Either way it will make it difficult to trade out your anti team for players that have exhibited poor performance in the first few weeks, and since F.United is a tiny team those players are very poor choices for an anti as they will likely play every match.
Subversion
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
South Africa3627 Posts
June 22 2011 06:16 GMT
#4
This is solid advice, but I feel like it kinda takes the fun out of it =/

Most of it is not about player skill, but abusing appearance points of smaller teams, taking advantage of scheduling etc.

Just not what Fantasy should really be about imo. Kinda sad that it works out that way =/
Lord_J
Profile Joined April 2011
Kenya1085 Posts
June 22 2011 06:20 GMT
#5
On June 22 2011 15:06 Disquiet wrote:
Show nested quote +
Because of the scheduling and trade-rules, there's an unique, (near) optimal solution for the antiteam.

As observed in the above schedule, Team F.United does not play between week 1-5, which means their players (Moon -5, Lyn -5, ThorZaIN -4, NaNiwa -4, SocceR -1) cannot possibly incur a single point for those weeks. Therefore, the optimal solution for a 13 antiteam are Lyn, Thorzain, Naniwa (or Moon, Lyn, and Thorzain under certain contigencies).

Since the trade-rule stipulate that you can only trade one antiteam a week, simply swap the players out for an underperforming or FXOpen player (which will not play between week 6-10) as you approach week 6. The only down side to this play is incurring 3pt trade deduction.


Criticism of this strategy: You can only trade anti-team players for those of a higher value

You cannot trade out moon, lyn, thorzain etc. for an underperforming FXO player because their price will be too low. I'm not sure how the number of games to play will affect the price of players, all that I know is that it does have an effect. The price of players with more games still to play will either rise over time, or the price of those with games already played will fall, or both, I'm not sure of the mechanics here. Either way it will make it difficult to trade out your anti team for players that have exhibited poor performance in the first few weeks, and since F.United is a tiny team those players are very poor choices for an anti as they will likely play every match.


Yeah, I think that's a bad strategy. It seems good at first, but if Moon and Lyn are already at -5, they will probably be at -7 or so by the time they start playing games, at which point you'll be stuck with guys who are guaranteed to get sent out every match (unless you want to trade them for MKP, Losira, and the like...).

A lot of people are apparently thinking they can get away with that, but I think it's going to backfire, bigtime.
No relation to Monsieur J.
DoomsVille
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada4885 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 06:33:00
June 22 2011 06:29 GMT
#6
Criticism: the playoffs aren't included for scoring (right?). So picking a team that wins isn't necessarily the best strategy. For example, if IM wins all of their games with scores of:
4-2
4-3
4-1
4-2
4-2

They will score: 6 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 2 = 20 points which cost you 8 minerals (2.5 minerals per point)

On the other hand, let's say a weaker team like HoSeo wins 1 but loses the rest (with a few close series')... hypothetically something like this:

4-2
3-4
3-4
2-4
2-4

They will score: 4 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 6 points for only 2 minerals (3 points per mineral).

So in that case they would actually be a better choice than IM. A team like HoSeo just needs to have 1 very good week (against say FXO or ZeNex?) to score roughly equally as well as IM.

I wouldn't rush to get on the SlayerS or IM train. Especially not SlayerS given how hard their group is.

EDIT: Should probably add you've done a ton of good work here. Keep it up!
Copenap
Profile Joined October 2010
723 Posts
June 22 2011 06:31 GMT
#7
On June 22 2011 15:20 Lord_J wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 22 2011 15:06 Disquiet wrote:
Because of the scheduling and trade-rules, there's an unique, (near) optimal solution for the antiteam.

As observed in the above schedule, Team F.United does not play between week 1-5, which means their players (Moon -5, Lyn -5, ThorZaIN -4, NaNiwa -4, SocceR -1) cannot possibly incur a single point for those weeks. Therefore, the optimal solution for a 13 antiteam are Lyn, Thorzain, Naniwa (or Moon, Lyn, and Thorzain under certain contigencies).

Since the trade-rule stipulate that you can only trade one antiteam a week, simply swap the players out for an underperforming or FXOpen player (which will not play between week 6-10) as you approach week 6. The only down side to this play is incurring 3pt trade deduction.


Criticism of this strategy: You can only trade anti-team players for those of a higher value

You cannot trade out moon, lyn, thorzain etc. for an underperforming FXO player because their price will be too low. I'm not sure how the number of games to play will affect the price of players, all that I know is that it does have an effect. The price of players with more games still to play will either rise over time, or the price of those with games already played will fall, or both, I'm not sure of the mechanics here. Either way it will make it difficult to trade out your anti team for players that have exhibited poor performance in the first few weeks, and since F.United is a tiny team those players are very poor choices for an anti as they will likely play every match.


Yeah, I think that's a bad strategy. It seems good at first, but if Moon and Lyn are already at -5, they will probably be at -7 or so by the time they start playing games, at which point you'll be stuck with guys who are guaranteed to get sent out every match (unless you want to trade them for MKP, Losira, and the like...).

A lot of people are apparently thinking they can get away with that, but I think it's going to backfire, bigtime.

I fully agree, OP should point that out imo. Furthermore I'm strongly for gaining points if an anti Team Player loses.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 22 2011 06:32 GMT
#8
Ahh, this will help me a lot.

Could you also talk about the changes of the player points/cost over the season?

I believe that understanding that is also a key to success. However, I have no clue how fast players can lose/gain points over the season.
I had a good night of sleep.
Wren
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States745 Posts
June 22 2011 06:35 GMT
#9
While I appreciate the writeup, I have to question a lot of your Ace designations. ST_Ace has the name, but not the record, for example (Bomber's their Ace, July's a half-step behind). Another decent example, sC has already served his team as their Ace, and his results have only improved since.
We're here! We're queer! We don't want any more bears!
Meteora.GB
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Canada2479 Posts
June 22 2011 06:44 GMT
#10
Nice guide, I may have to look into changing my line up.

LosirA and MarineKing are not Terran and Protoss respectively, however. This is under the team selection section.
Garnet
Profile Blog Joined February 2006
Vietnam9020 Posts
June 22 2011 07:10 GMT
#11
On June 22 2011 15:06 Disquiet wrote:
Show nested quote +
Because of the scheduling and trade-rules, there's an unique, (near) optimal solution for the antiteam.

As observed in the above schedule, Team F.United does not play between week 1-5, which means their players (Moon -5, Lyn -5, ThorZaIN -4, NaNiwa -4, SocceR -1) cannot possibly incur a single point for those weeks. Therefore, the optimal solution for a 13 antiteam are Lyn, Thorzain, Naniwa (or Moon, Lyn, and Thorzain under certain contigencies).

Since the trade-rule stipulate that you can only trade one antiteam a week, simply swap the players out for an underperforming or FXOpen player (which will not play between week 6-10) as you approach week 6. The only down side to this play is incurring 3pt trade deduction.


Criticism of this strategy: You can only trade anti-team players for those of a higher value

You cannot trade out moon, lyn, thorzain etc. for an underperforming FXO player because their price will be too low. I'm not sure how the number of games to play will affect the price of players, all that I know is that it does have an effect. The price of players with more games still to play will either rise over time, or the price of those with games already played will fall, or both, I'm not sure of the mechanics here. Either way it will make it difficult to trade out your anti team for players that have exhibited poor performance in the first few weeks, and since F.United is a tiny team those players are very poor choices for an anti as they will likely play every match.

Great post. Now I might have to remove Thorzain from my anti.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 09:05:50
June 22 2011 07:45 GMT
#12
  • I am unable to find any information about whether the playoffs would be scored as part of the Fantasy GSTL, if I receive admin confirmation, I'll be more than happy to adjust the Guide. Until then, I'll leave playoffs as part of the analysis.

  • There's no published formulas on how point adjustments are determined, or whether trade-down points are based on purchased salary or the current designated salary.

  • Clarifications regarding designations:
    • Snipers were designed through a survey (ie ctrl-F) of the discussion thread.
    • Benched players are marked only if either (1) non-playing coaches (2)cut from the team.
    • Ace designation has been revised, now a player is only designated as Ace if (1)consistently picked as a closer, (2)most team wins in GSTL1-3, (3) significantly higher Elo than rest of the team.


  • I will add a disclaimer on possible administrative punishment regarding the anti-team play.
Thank God and gunrun.
kOre
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada3642 Posts
June 22 2011 08:42 GMT
#13
I'm 99% sure that playoffs will NOT be counted towards the Fantasy GTSL. This is how it worked for the normal FPL and I can't imagine why they would change it.
http://www.starcraftmecca.net - Founder
Nexic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States729 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 09:16:28
June 22 2011 09:11 GMT
#14
Thanks for such a great write-up!

On June 22 2011 16:45 Primadog wrote:
  • There's no published formulas on how point adjustments are determined, or whether trade-down points are based on purchased salary or the current designated salary.
You're right, as the wording of the rules doesn't explicitly indicate if 'selling' values varies each week in addition to 'buying' values. What the rule says:

  • Player and team values will increase or decrease every week, depending on their performances.
So your assumption is that only the 'buy' values for players will fluctuate each week, and not their 'sell' values. But if a player is performing poorly, wouldn't he have a reduced 'sell' value, thus penalizing you by limiting your trade options? If not, you basically get a full refund with no penalty for your poor choice.

Another way to think about it: I haven't participated in fantasy football/etc, but I understand a trade would take place between two individuals. Trading a well-performing player for poorly performing one would be unlikely to be agreed upon, I would think that concept would carry over.

I'm making assumptions as well here, so obviously I'm not suggesting you make any edits, I was just thinking about it ;o
frequency
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Australia1901 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 09:25:10
June 22 2011 09:23 GMT
#15
I never played FPL, but do player values change if they have a constant win/lose rate? Like, if Optikzero went 4-0 in the first two games, would he then be worth more than 1 point (and of course the same for reverse?)

Edit: Got answered right above me, herp.
www.twitter.com/marconofrio | marconofrio.tumblr.com
Scorch
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Austria3371 Posts
June 22 2011 09:29 GMT
#16
In past Fantasy Proleagues, a player's trade value was

adjusted trade value * number of matches left to play,

where the adjusted trade value was calculated from a player's starting cost and performance in previous matches. A 5 cost player who underperforms may go down to, say, 3.2 points, or go up to a value of, for example, 8.1 if he rips it up.
This means that once F.United players get to play, other teams will already have played half their games, thus making F.United players relatively twice as valuable as players from other teams, and therefore almost impossible to trade out of your anti team.
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
June 22 2011 09:29 GMT
#17
I'll still stick with my Korea vs the World team, with the top non-Korean players in my team and the top Koreans in my anti-team. I'm not interested in winning the Fantasy GSTL, I just want a measure that shows how well the top non-Koreans in the league fare against the top Koreans and have some fun. ^^
Geisterkarle
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
Germany3257 Posts
June 22 2011 09:36 GMT
#18
Yeah yeah! Calculate, Calculate!
Maybe I see it too much for a fun thing, but I prepare my team by how I like it and don't try to get brain damage while sorting out, who to take or not!
I'm in the Top 10% of FPL atm, so it should not be that bad here either!
There can only be one Geisterkarle
RPR_Tempest
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Australia7798 Posts
June 22 2011 09:52 GMT
#19
Wouldn't YongHwa be better than Seed? Seed has only been played once but YongHwa consistently comes out for IM.
Soundwave, Zerg player from Canberra, Australia. @SoundwaveSC
figq
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
12519 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 16:45:21
June 22 2011 10:33 GMT
#20
Please replace "Killer" with "Sangho" (with clarification "Killer" in brackets), because otherwise it points to another player in the international database.

I'm surprised to see my submitted team match almost entirely your recommendations. Curious to see whether it would actually work as we think. *fingers crossed*

Here are my tips (though it's my first FL and I'm not very SC2/RTS knowledgeable):
+ Show Spoiler +
1. Pick 8 players from 8 different strong teams - it guarantees you a point for each of these teams' wins. Including 100% certain 1pts, whenever two of these 8 teams play each other. To maximize the effect, put some emphasis on one group over the other (more in-team matches).
2. Going through past FPLs, it seems trading is overrated. In most top10-finishers there were plenty of people who didn't trade the whole season. In addition, those of them who traded often lost more than they won, or it was pretty close. Thus, a couple of very strategic trades is probably all you need.
edit: 3. For the anti-team, pick players from the same weak team, or you will score negative points each time their strong teams win, even if they don't play.
If you stand next to my head, you can hear the ocean. - Day[9]
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
June 22 2011 13:26 GMT
#21
On June 22 2011 19:33 figq wrote:
1. Pick 8 players from 8 different strong teams - it guarantees you a point for each of these teams' wins. Including 100% certain 1pts, whenever two of these 8 teams play each other. To maximize the effect, put some emphasis on one group over the other (more in-team matches).
2. Going through past FPLs, it seems trading is overrated. In most top10-finishers there were plenty of people who didn't trade the whole season. In addition, those of them who traded often lost more than they won, or it was pretty close. Thus, a couple of very strategic trades is probably all you need


I dont see how trading to get players playing that week and guarenting both points for showing up and points for winning would not help your team... i wont be trading my team i picked but the players are all expendable
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Disquiet
Profile Joined January 2011
Australia628 Posts
June 22 2011 13:36 GMT
#22
On June 22 2011 18:36 Geisterkarle wrote:
Yeah yeah! Calculate, Calculate!
Maybe I see it too much for a fun thing, but I prepare my team by how I like it and don't try to get brain damage while sorting out, who to take or not!
I'm in the Top 10% of FPL atm, so it should not be that bad here either!


Don't worry the whole point of the formula adjusting players values according to to matches left to play is to try stop people abusing the schedule too much, so it doesn't just become a game purely about working out optimal trade timings. I'm sure there might be some small advantages to gain as the system is not perfect, but by far the most important thing is picking the right players to trade based on performance and how often they will play, rather than when they play.

On June 22 2011 18:29 Scorch wrote:
In past Fantasy Proleagues, a player's trade value was

adjusted trade value * number of matches left to play,

where the adjusted trade value was calculated from a player's starting cost and performance in previous matches. A 5 cost player who underperforms may go down to, say, 3.2 points, or go up to a value of, for example, 8.1 if he rips it up.
This means that once F.United players get to play, other teams will already have played half their games, thus making F.United players relatively twice as valuable as players from other teams, and therefore almost impossible to trade out of your anti team.


Thanks for that I hadn't participated in the BW fantasy league before, I never really followed it aside from watching an occasional stream. If the formula works similarly for the fantasy GSTL it confirms that attempting to use the schedule to abuse the anti-team is a bad idea.
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
June 22 2011 15:53 GMT
#23
Updated the anti-team section to emphasize possible trade pitfalls. If there's more trade value information and calculations, I'll appreciate it.
Thank God and gunrun.
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3613 Posts
June 22 2011 16:17 GMT
#24
While this is nothing like a complete player report, this compilation may also be useful for people. I've put together the complete records of all players through the first 3 GTSL seasons, together with charting on how they scored in the latest season compared to the previous ones. Note that this is not entirely applicable as this GTSL has an actual season while previous GTSLs were playoff-only format, but because I have the data for all three seasons I feel that it does give a good overview of the top performers.

Any player not on this chart was not fielded in a previous GTSL and so I have no data on him.

I use "PPC" as points-per-cost, or how much did they score before compared to their cost now. There are two columns for this, PPCL (L for latest, rating in the last GTSL) and PPCT (for Total across all three seasons). I assumed 3 points per win, which doesn't include any bonus points and so the result is that very good players appear not as good as they are in comparison to just good ones. (For instance: going 6-0 and going 6-3 generate the same basic points, but the 6-0 run will get bonus points I couldn't include easily.) I also included a "Diff" there: how does the players score in the last league compare to the overall average (indicating increased/decreased playtime and/or relative skill-level).

The chart is currently sorted by overall winning percentage and then that "diff" setting. I don't know if you'll be able to sort it yourself without edit privileges: if your really want to play with it PM me and let me know.

If clicking the link doesn't work, the hard URL is https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtwBOqr3iC8idFpUR1FRbVMtN01EdXhjQkdRRlR6YVE&hl=en_US&authkey=CICzv8EJ
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
figq
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
12519 Posts
June 22 2011 16:23 GMT
#25
On June 22 2011 22:26 Mattchew wrote:
I dont see how trading to get players playing that week and guarenting both points for showing up and points for winning would not help your team... i wont be trading my team i picked but the players are all expendable
If he loses you score -1pt (1 show -1 loss -1 trade tax), and he was of lower value even before the loss. But yeah, there are differences with FPL, because of the KotH bo7 format, the volatility of lineups and players in SC2, and the fact that we don't know how the player value mechanism will be adjusted for GSTL, so the direct comparison with FPL is not too reliable.
If you stand next to my head, you can hear the ocean. - Day[9]
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3613 Posts
June 22 2011 16:44 GMT
#26
On Trading

Here's the problem I'm anticipating with trading on the main team:

Team A doesn't play one week so you trade down for someone on Team B. -1. He loses. -1. He wins a game next week. +3 But the week after Team B doesn't play, but his ATV is now at a point where you are trading down again.

Now consider that the majority of the time you're only going to be trading for players you're pretty sure are going to play and are likely to win.

For example, let's say you draft MMA. Now, SlayerS doesn't play in weeks 2 and 3. But are you going to trade him off? For who? Look at the schedule: anyone good you can get for him is only going to be playing one week and then you have to trade *him* off in an ever-spiraling downgrade.

Not to say trading's absolutely useless, but if you're trading every week based on the schedule you're going to run out of good options around week 4-6 and be left with a worse team for the last few weeks of the season.
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
CosmicSpiral
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States15275 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-22 18:56:32
June 22 2011 18:03 GMT
#27
Primadog, your tournament schedule is a lifesaver.

It looks like IM is the best choice for the regular season. Until week 10 they should be able to crush every team they face. However like Doomsville said, the rest of Group B is weak enough that teams like ZeNEX and HoSeo can easily match IM in cost-effectiveness. Plus Group A is going to be hard for any team, even SlayerS, to maintain a positive record.
WriterWovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.
Engdrew
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States890 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-23 00:02:17
June 22 2011 23:59 GMT
#28
just a small mistake: might want to change marineking to terran under players

EDIT: You also might want to add that the starting players have been announced for Week 1 matches
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