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The following is an analysis of the modern Protoss deathball currently sweeping tournaments as compared to the Zerg swarm last fall that was having good results for Zerg players.
Let's take an objective glance at part of the metagame. Ever since SC2 launched, Zerg has been all about taking an economic advantage and then killing their opponent in the late game. During a period of time after the Zealot and Reaper build time nerfs, Zergs were finally able to fend off substantial early harassment and build up these economic leads with far more ease than was possible before. After a short period of time, Zergs were enjoying strategies that basically involved "macro hard to win!" and many Zergs learned a lot of the intricacies of when to drone and when not to drone. Zerg enjoyed a brief trip to the top - Korean and foreign polls were all declaring that Zerg was far and away the top race (77% voted that Zerg was the strongest race on a leading Korean forum, the "TL" of the Korean scene). IdrA was considered a much bigger favorite than he is currently (comparatively - he's still a great favorite), and players like Fruitdealer and Nestea were (and in the case of Nestea, are) considered the players to watch.
The shift was ironic, because the exact same polls had shown Terran in a commanding lead for "strongest race" just two months earlier with 81% voting in favor. This was the time when MorroW won IEM away from IdrA with Reaper play, and Terran were placing 3-out-of-4 slots in the top 4 of many tournaments, if not winning outright. Protoss was widely considered the weakest race with the most flimsy and gimmicky mechanics (force field, Void Ray, Mothership, or just builds involving a Stargate at all).
Unfortunately for Zerg, the "reign" was relatively short-lived. One particular player, MarineKing, showed that an ultra-aggressive high pressure style could perform very well against many Zergs. Theorycrafting on Teamliquid produced results, and Terran and Protoss learned ways to pressure the Zerg and keep the drone count lower, leading to less economic dominance going into the midgame. The Zerg style was, in a sense, "found out" and a reasonable - but not always effective - counter was discovered that put the races on even footing.
Fast forward many months to season 2, jumping many major tournaments down the line. Zerg has had less than spectacular results recently as Terran and Protoss styles have grown to accommodate pressuring on Zerg to force army production and reduce the exponential growth possibilities of Spawn Larva. Except we notice that a peculiar shift of events has occurred.
Not only is Zerg under-represented in the top 16 of many tournaments, but now Protoss is over-represented. And what is causing that? In many cases it is a series of Protoss timing attacks combined with an eventual deathball off of an economic turtle style play. Isn't that exactly what Zerg were using only a few months before - a style that tried to command an economic advantage and "survive" until their advantage eventually peaked and they could win the game? Except now Protoss is doing a similar strategy - instead of requiring bases and resources to ascertain victory, Protoss simply requires that their army stay relatively unharmed in order to build up the critical mass of units necessary to sweep army after opponent army. This is a different strategy than Zerg, who welcomed the opportunity to exchange armies with an opponent due to the vastly increased economy and production capability with which to quickly reproduce an army, compared to the other two races slow acquisition of key units (Tanks, Colossus).
If you look at the post history of the strategy boards back in late 2010, you'll find an overwhelming amount of threads asking the question "How do I punish Zerg?" Eventually, with time, this was figured out. Balance changes were NOT made to cause Zerg to "fall from power" so to speak (in fact, the only balance changes during this time were pro-Zerg and con-Terran). With dedication (and whining) the players eventually figured out how to take care of the Zerg threat.
Now if we look at the strategy forums recently, it's a complete shift - the Protoss deathball is getting a lot of attention. And for good reason - it's very powerful! However it's not substantially more powerful than it has ever been (Zealot charge and Void Ray massive damage are the big changes), but only recently has it become the "most powerful strategy in the game" that allows "noobs" to beat "pros" by abusing the strategy.
TL;DR and conclusion:
So what happens now? The point of this post is to give you a little brief example of how the metagame can shift entirely. Zerg used to want to command the 200/200 army (or even the "300 food push") to destroy their opponents. After that style was figured out, ironically, Protoss adopted a similar line of thought. Instead of bases and resources being the decided factor, building army size without losses became the primary objective for these Protoss players. How do we, as a community, learn to deal with this new shift and take out the Protoss deathball?
The answer could be in light balance tweaks - but maybe it isn't. We didn't need Terran and Protoss buffs to take care of Zerg. Are we sure that we need balance tweaks to take care of Protoss?
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Uh, the same info appears twice in here. Copy-paste error?
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Definitely a copy-paste error. Regardless, OP does make an interesting point with the comparison of how macro Zergs used to be scary while the Protoss deathball strategy goes along the same lines. I highly doubt balance tweaks will be necessary to counter the deathball, but we'll see what happens in higher levels of play. That's how it always goes. Sooner or later, someone figures out how to counter a specific type of strategy. As good as MC is, sooner or later someone will figure out how to consistently stop his insane pushes. Sooner or later, someone will just figure out how to dismantle Cruncher in ZvP in convincing fashion (some pros probably can already and just haven't faced him).
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I knew this post looked too damn long - thanks for the tip. I edited it and removed the duplicate info.
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I still think this game is fairly new in terms of strategy. Zerg can easily be the most 'OP' race in a few months or years given time to fully understand it's potential. All I can think of when I read the last sentence/question in the OP, I thought of the latest SotG where Tyler and Sean talked about how the players have to stop whining about imbalances and waiting for Blizzard to patch the game. Instead, as players we should learn to play around the imbalances like they did back in BW. I think the game is at a decent place in terms of balance. Just because people out micro/macro you doesn't mean their race is OP, the pros take games off other pros all the time, it's just as a race people have found ways to abuse what they have, like in the OP mentioning timing pushes and aggression.
Also there has been talk about possibly nerfing the collosus for protoss. Personally I feel that is completely unnecessary. Nerfing the templar was one thing, but if they take away the collosus, most protoss players would be forced to stay on gateway tech due to how cost inefficient it would be to tech to collosus. (though it may force the use of the new unit: carriers :D) with proper scouting, anything can be stopped, including the massive 'deathball' of the protoss army. (the Thorzain vs Tyler series comes to mind when thinking about making collosus useless, the 250mm cannons ripped those collosi new holes)
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On April 19 2011 05:49 Antedelerium wrote:
Definitely a copy-paste error. Regardless, OP does make an interesting point with the comparison of how macro Zergs used to be scary while the Protoss deathball strategy goes along the same lines. I highly doubt balance tweaks will be necessary to counter the deathball, but we'll see what happens in higher levels of play. That's how it always goes. Sooner or later, someone figures out how to counter a specific type of strategy. As good as MC is, sooner or later someone will figure out how to consistently stop his insane pushes. Sooner or later, someone will just figure out how to dismantle Cruncher in ZvP in convincing fashion (some pros probably can already and just haven't faced him).
But balance tweaks have already been made. The infestor buff hard counters protoss death balls, being highly effective against pretty much the whole protoss composition.
edit: from the situation report 1.3
The +30% armored damage change was more strictly targeted towards stalker-based protoss armies, as well as marauder-based terran armies. We wanted infestors to be more of a core unit in the ZvP matchup while keeping them just as useful vs. terran. The stun duration reduction change by itself didn’t allow these two things, so we had to make this damage change as well in order to arrive at the right place for the infestor.
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On April 19 2011 05:54 Jerax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 05:49 Antedelerium wrote:
Definitely a copy-paste error. Regardless, OP does make an interesting point with the comparison of how macro Zergs used to be scary while the Protoss deathball strategy goes along the same lines. I highly doubt balance tweaks will be necessary to counter the deathball, but we'll see what happens in higher levels of play. That's how it always goes. Sooner or later, someone figures out how to counter a specific type of strategy. As good as MC is, sooner or later someone will figure out how to consistently stop his insane pushes. Sooner or later, someone will just figure out how to dismantle Cruncher in ZvP in convincing fashion (some pros probably can already and just haven't faced him). But balance tweaks have already been made. The infestor buff hard counters protoss death balls, being highly effective against pretty much the whole protoss composition.
And yet every pro don't make them.
Broodlords with infestors&anything support destroy any kind of stalkers/colossi deathball protoss can make.
But everyone is still sticking to roaches hydra corruptor. :/
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zergs are not being aggressive enough there is no reason to let a protoss get a ball of death going... keep them on 2 base keep pressuring... zergs drone so hard they lose sight of this and suddenly protoss has map control and zerg is trying not to die... not an optimal way to play....
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I don't think it's so much a metagame shift as it is the mid-game and late-game becoming more mapped out in SC2.
A big reason why zerg has such a hard time taking out the protoss deathball is that getting 4 or more bases provides only a marginal increase in economy over 3 bases (as outlined in LaLuSh's macro analysis thread). Because of this, 4/5 base zerg doesn't really give much of an increased economy over 3 base. Also, once protoss gets a 3rd base, they have enough to make a maxed army; since protoss' maxed army is the strongest in the game, it's at this point in a game where protoss is stronger than zerg. And with the sheer amount of DPS, a protoss maxed army can steamroll a maxed zerg army AND any reinforcements that come immediately after.
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No, of course not. And I like that although your point is simple, it is detailed and hopefully everyone will see that not everything needs to be balanced immediately with actual tweaking but rather by development of the metagame by the players themselves.
Then again, how do I know Protoss, unlike the Terran and Zerg reigns, will not need a real balance tweak? Well I guess I don't know, but either way, it's up to Blizzard whether they will be tweaked or not, regardless of whether they "should" be tweaked.
Anyway, one point I'd like to throw out there is that many people don't realize how diverse the Protoss ball is, but instead qq, asking over and over for one unit that can counter the entire deathball; unfortunately that can't happen, as deathballs are made up of: Zealots, Sentries, Stalkers, Voids, Colossi, sometimes even more. 5 units in total, which is like 2/3 of the Zerg race.
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This entire post does not even account for the map changes. Which I personally believe has the largest impact on gameplay.
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Pretty sure we could not make a single change to the game and within a year or two Zerg would be flat out unstoppable.
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i have already gone away from the stalker/colossus/voidray composition already, other protoss will soon change as well
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Only time will tell. In 3-4 months if the protoss deathball is still ripping zergs limb from limb then it could be time to evaluate balance. Until then zergs need to work on builds and timings.
On April 19 2011 05:57 purecarnagge wrote:
zergs are not being aggressive enough there is no reason to let a protoss get a ball of death going... keep them on 2 base keep pressuring... zergs drone so hard they lose sight of this and suddenly protoss has map control and zerg is trying not to die... not an optimal way to play....
Refer to TSL3 Mondragon vs CrunCher.
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On April 19 2011 06:06 dere wrote:
This entire post does not even account for the map changes. Which I personally believe has the largest impact on gameplay.
I agree but if anything Zerg should be doing better now with these maps since zergs across the board wanted bigger maps. They got what they wanted but things have either stayed the same or gotten worse statistically.
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On April 19 2011 05:54 Jerax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 05:49 Antedelerium wrote:
Definitely a copy-paste error. Regardless, OP does make an interesting point with the comparison of how macro Zergs used to be scary while the Protoss deathball strategy goes along the same lines. I highly doubt balance tweaks will be necessary to counter the deathball, but we'll see what happens in higher levels of play. That's how it always goes. Sooner or later, someone figures out how to counter a specific type of strategy. As good as MC is, sooner or later someone will figure out how to consistently stop his insane pushes. Sooner or later, someone will just figure out how to dismantle Cruncher in ZvP in convincing fashion (some pros probably can already and just haven't faced him). But balance tweaks have already been made. The infestor buff hard counters protoss death balls, being highly effective against pretty much the whole protoss composition. edit: from the situation report 1.3 Show nested quote +The +30% armored damage change was more strictly targeted towards stalker-based protoss armies, as well as marauder-based terran armies. We wanted infestors to be more of a core unit in the ZvP matchup while keeping them just as useful vs. terran. The stun duration reduction change by itself didn’t allow these two things, so we had to make this damage change as well in order to arrive at the right place for the infestor.
too bad collosi outranges infestors
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people need to look at spanishiwas play and learn from it. he CRUSHES P's with his sick play and usually he is equal in drones and bases.
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On April 19 2011 05:57 Noocta wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 05:54 Jerax wrote:On April 19 2011 05:49 Antedelerium wrote:
Definitely a copy-paste error. Regardless, OP does make an interesting point with the comparison of how macro Zergs used to be scary while the Protoss deathball strategy goes along the same lines. I highly doubt balance tweaks will be necessary to counter the deathball, but we'll see what happens in higher levels of play. That's how it always goes. Sooner or later, someone figures out how to counter a specific type of strategy. As good as MC is, sooner or later someone will figure out how to consistently stop his insane pushes. Sooner or later, someone will just figure out how to dismantle Cruncher in ZvP in convincing fashion (some pros probably can already and just haven't faced him). But balance tweaks have already been made. The infestor buff hard counters protoss death balls, being highly effective against pretty much the whole protoss composition. And yet every pro don't make them. Broodlords with infestors&anything support destroy any kind of stalkers/colossi deathball protoss can make. But everyone is still sticking to roaches hydra corruptor. :/
BL/Infestor are incredibly hard to get out safely which is why you don't see them more often. On top of that imagine a Protoss deathball, but your 'ball' moves at 1.4 speed (instead of 2.25 speed). I know personally I've had situations where P will just run stalkers right around the (well blink around) the broodlords and then proceed to wreck havoc in your base. Sure you FG them, but at 4 seconds it's not like your BLs are going to catch up very much if they weren't initially in range. So you end up refungaling the same stalkers 2-3 times while the rest of the pack can just move on or you fungal everything once or twice and then they break free before the bl's catch up and kill them. Now on maps without good flanking possibilities, close-ish bases, or when the P hasn't spread out at all BL/Infestor is great. You basically need to be able to do what Mondragon does and get out BL/Infestor + a crap ton of crawlers to defend which is going to be well after you have to initially max on units if you want to last that long.
I'm also curious about this so-called period of Zerg domination. All I remember is 2 players pulling out against all odds to win a tournament and IdrA being the favorite because of how long he had been training in Korea at a time when the SC2 scene was still really young and developing.
On April 19 2011 06:11 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 06:06 dere wrote:
This entire post does not even account for the map changes. Which I personally believe has the largest impact on gameplay. I agree but if anything Zerg should be doing better now with these maps since zergs across the board wanted bigger maps. They got what they wanted but things have either stayed the same or gotten worse statistically.
Bigger maps help vs the aggression options, but hurt vs the turtle play if they get too large. So it's been a give and take for Zerg.
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I watched idra wreck some protoss players and their death balls just by going heavy baneling.
Its not the same as going against pros but if idra can completely wreck the ball using uncommon units against inferior players then its possible that a slight change in mechanics can make these methods work vs pro players too.
The death ball is strong and easy to make but I think that discovering the counter will unleash a satisfying wave of protoss late game tears.
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On April 19 2011 06:11 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 06:06 dere wrote:
This entire post does not even account for the map changes. Which I personally believe has the largest impact on gameplay. I agree but if anything Zerg should be doing better now with these maps since zergs across the board wanted bigger maps. They got what they wanted but things have either stayed the same or gotten worse statistically.
No, it was a tremendous buff to zerg in ZvT. Some people (correctly) predicted it would also be a huge, if not bigger buff to Protoss.
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EPT
