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Ever since the new season began I've noticed that I've gotten a disproportional amount of mirror match ups as a random player. In my past 10 1v1 games 8 of them have been mirrors. Over the total 80 games I've played this season 35 of them have been mirrors. That translates to roughly 44% of my games being mirror matchups, which is way above the 33% it should be. There seems to be a problem with the "randomness" of playing random.
Granted, this all just might be bad luck but I thought I'd bring it to the boards and see if this is a more widespread problem. Can you random players check your games and see if your mirror match up stats are off as well (please use sc2gears or something to verify concrete stats instead of guessing.) Is it possible that there is something wrong with how the game selects your random race?
I'm primarily concerned with this being a problem for random players but if other players have noticed problems with how match ups are selected feel free to share you opinion.
Poll: Have you noticed a disproportionate number of mirror match ups?Yes, I have noticed a significantly higher percentage of mirror match ups (240) 66% No, my mirror matchups are right around where they should be (approx 33%) (78) 21% No, my mirror matchups are significantly lower than they should be (45) 12% 363 total votes Your vote: Have you noticed a disproportionate number of mirror match ups? (Vote): Yes, I have noticed a significantly higher percentage of mirror match ups
(Vote): No, my mirror matchups are right around where they should be (approx 33%)
(Vote): No, my mirror matchups are significantly lower than they should be
EDIT: Since some people can't read let me spell it out again: My sample size is too small. I need more data. That's why I made a post on TL. Random players please give me your statistical data of how many mirror and non-mirror matchups you've had. If other players want to give me their stats then I don't mind, but the focus is on random players.
EDIT4: As of Tue Apr 12 04:54 2011 KST (TL.net time) the random mirror vs non mirror stats are as follows: 527 random games played by 8 TL members. 198 mirror games and 329 non mirror games for a random mirror match up percentage of 37.57%. As more random players post their statistics I will update these numbers.
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On April 11 2011 00:43 Gnax wrote:
100% mirrors here.
you terran?
User was warned for this post
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I think its just random being random as intended. 
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I've played 3 games on the ladder, every single one a pvp (queued as p).
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I play random and out of 10 my previous P opponents, 6-7 times I've rolled P too
I think it's still random tho
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2% chance of that happening
chalk it up to short term variance
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I played 15 pvps in a row once
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According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end).
You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
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I'm low masters protoss and i pretty much get 50% PVTs, 30%PVP, 20% vs Z
i think it depends on your division or league.
Expect more Ps in low league, Zs or Ts in mid and a mix in upper league
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On April 11 2011 00:50 REM.ca wrote:According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end). You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
yeah, I was going to say this.
Also I love polls in threads like these because it just shows how obvious the TL bias is.
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The chances of 9 TvT's in a row assuming 35% of Masters is Protoss seems unlikely. I've had more TvT's than TvP's and TvZ's combined post 1.3.
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id just like to point out that hes not saying "im protoss and i keep getting pvp" hes playing random and is getting a disproportional amount of mirrors
edit: and to the guy saying ull see more P in low leagues is incredibly wrong, theres like 45% terran in bronze
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Ive had like 12ish out of my last 20 games have been zvz. Hell.. atleast its not zvp... :D
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All mirors in 15 games, PvP is so bad >.<
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I used to play Zerg and I had around a 90% mirror match ups on ladder. It later forced me to switch to Terran :S. Here I am 
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And I thought I was the only one getting mirror almost every game.
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On April 11 2011 00:50 REM.ca wrote:According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end). You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
LOL, This guy knows his stuff, gotta give him that. Your sample size is to low....you need a higher data point.
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i too have seen alot of mirrors. I dont think there is something bugged with the matchmaking system. If there is i would be shocked.
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EPT
