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Ever since the new season began I've noticed that I've gotten a disproportional amount of mirror match ups as a random player. In my past 10 1v1 games 8 of them have been mirrors. Over the total 80 games I've played this season 35 of them have been mirrors. That translates to roughly 44% of my games being mirror matchups, which is way above the 33% it should be. There seems to be a problem with the "randomness" of playing random.
Granted, this all just might be bad luck but I thought I'd bring it to the boards and see if this is a more widespread problem. Can you random players check your games and see if your mirror match up stats are off as well (please use sc2gears or something to verify concrete stats instead of guessing.) Is it possible that there is something wrong with how the game selects your random race?
I'm primarily concerned with this being a problem for random players but if other players have noticed problems with how match ups are selected feel free to share you opinion.
Poll: Have you noticed a disproportionate number of mirror match ups?Yes, I have noticed a significantly higher percentage of mirror match ups (240) 66% No, my mirror matchups are right around where they should be (approx 33%) (78) 21% No, my mirror matchups are significantly lower than they should be (45) 12% 363 total votes Your vote: Have you noticed a disproportionate number of mirror match ups? (Vote): Yes, I have noticed a significantly higher percentage of mirror match ups
(Vote): No, my mirror matchups are right around where they should be (approx 33%)
(Vote): No, my mirror matchups are significantly lower than they should be
EDIT: Since some people can't read let me spell it out again: My sample size is too small. I need more data. That's why I made a post on TL. Random players please give me your statistical data of how many mirror and non-mirror matchups you've had. If other players want to give me their stats then I don't mind, but the focus is on random players.
EDIT4: As of Tue Apr 12 04:54 2011 KST (TL.net time) the random mirror vs non mirror stats are as follows: 527 random games played by 8 TL members. 198 mirror games and 329 non mirror games for a random mirror match up percentage of 37.57%. As more random players post their statistics I will update these numbers.
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On April 11 2011 00:43 Gnax wrote:
100% mirrors here.
you terran?
User was warned for this post
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I think its just random being random as intended. 
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I've played 3 games on the ladder, every single one a pvp (queued as p).
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I play random and out of 10 my previous P opponents, 6-7 times I've rolled P too
I think it's still random tho
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2% chance of that happening
chalk it up to short term variance
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I played 15 pvps in a row once
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According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end).
You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
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I'm low masters protoss and i pretty much get 50% PVTs, 30%PVP, 20% vs Z
i think it depends on your division or league.
Expect more Ps in low league, Zs or Ts in mid and a mix in upper league
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On April 11 2011 00:50 REM.ca wrote:According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end). You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
yeah, I was going to say this.
Also I love polls in threads like these because it just shows how obvious the TL bias is.
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The chances of 9 TvT's in a row assuming 35% of Masters is Protoss seems unlikely. I've had more TvT's than TvP's and TvZ's combined post 1.3.
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id just like to point out that hes not saying "im protoss and i keep getting pvp" hes playing random and is getting a disproportional amount of mirrors
edit: and to the guy saying ull see more P in low leagues is incredibly wrong, theres like 45% terran in bronze
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Ive had like 12ish out of my last 20 games have been zvz. Hell.. atleast its not zvp... :D
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All mirors in 15 games, PvP is so bad >.<
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I used to play Zerg and I had around a 90% mirror match ups on ladder. It later forced me to switch to Terran :S. Here I am 
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And I thought I was the only one getting mirror almost every game.
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On April 11 2011 00:50 REM.ca wrote:According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end). You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk.
LOL, This guy knows his stuff, gotta give him that. Your sample size is to low....you need a higher data point.
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i too have seen alot of mirrors. I dont think there is something bugged with the matchmaking system. If there is i would be shocked.
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It is low, but I've never ever ever had so much TvT in my life since post reset. I've been playing since beta and let me tell you TvT has ALWAYS been rare. Now all of a sudden it's more than TvZ and TvP combined?!?!?! I doubt that.
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What part of random chances don't you understand. Seeing someone complains that it doesn't seem random is the perfect proof it is. Most people have a proper division and the one that doesn't always complains. Get over it
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I'm a terran player, and I've only had about 3-4 tvts since reset, and I've played about 40 games.
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I was gonna say I'm seeing way more zergs as a diamond terran... very odd I must say
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On April 11 2011 01:06 -Mav- wrote:
I'm a terran player, and I've only had about 3-4 tvts since reset, and I've played about 40 games.
If you're in Masters I'm getting all your TvT's for you.
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TLO plays less random for exactly this reason. He would always get mirrors, even in customs.
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So far (thanks, sc2gears!):
ZvZ: 43 Matches since Season 2, 222 since Season 1
ZvP: 50 Matches since Season 2, 267 since Season 1
ZvT: 24 Matches since Season 2, 137 since Season 1
If anything, this shows a surprising lack of Terrans out there, but no significant amount of mirror matchups.
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That isn't odd, just check the sc2 ranks race distribution.
If the numbers are correct, in basicly any league except the top for masters:
Protoss > Zerg >> Terran in terms of player numbers.
So if you currently play Protoss or Zerg or you random into one of those there is a very good chance you will be matched up with another protoss/zerg, terran's are just getting rare to play against.
So yes, I personally see a lot of mirror matchups, but that is basicly because in my games it's like 50% P, 40% Z, 10% T
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Why are so many people who don't even play random reply? OP made it pretty clear he was only talking about random players rolling the same race as their opponent more often.
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Since the 1.3 patch I have played 79 1v1 matches.
29 TvP
32 TvZ
18 TvT
Terran seem to be slightly underrepresented but that is probably just due to a small sample size. As far as I can see that matchmaking system is working correctly.
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On April 11 2011 00:45 ElusoryX wrote:you terran?
why do people still say shit like this? protoss is the most played race by a fairly large margin while terran sits at the bottom
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On April 11 2011 01:02 Draz wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 00:50 REM.ca wrote:According to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm, your sample size of 80 has a confidence interval of about 10-11% which means that 44% instead of 33% is actually within what should be expected (though admittedly at the extreme end). You would need 350+ games to verify a confidence interval even as big as 5%. So come back here after 350+ games and if you're getting more than 38% mirrors, we'll talk. LOL, This guy knows his stuff, gotta give him that. Your sample size is to low....you need a higher data point.
Not to mentin that the 33% predicted probability assumes equal chances of hitting Terran, Toss or Zerg. An assumption that might not hold true depeding on race distributions at his level.
IMO, this thread will go nowhere but people complaining about stuff they don't really understand and should be closed.
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It could be broken for some people. I feel like there is actually a problem and I'd like to see if it actually is before people go dismissing it because they are not experiencing it.
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Definitely more zvz and zvp.
Where are all the terrans at?
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Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't.
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I noticed the same thing, as did many people I played.
ZvZ all the time and it used to be much much less.
I actually made a topic about this a few days after the new season started but a moderator decided I was stupid and closed the thread.
Is it really so far fetched to consider that blizzard might have changed something in their matchmaking algorithm for season 2?
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I don't play random, but the ladder is giving me almost nothing but ZvZs  .
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On April 11 2011 01:26 Noocta wrote:
Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't.
Yeah I think it's a combination of this and race distrubution between leagues, I have been playing an awful lot of ZvZs since the reset -_-'
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I think during this season it has been like 40-50% PvP and the rest PvZ/PvT.
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My last 6 or so games have been all vs Z (I'm P). I haven't seen a terran in even longer.
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Not only is your sample size too small, but the poll will naturally be biased towards having more mirrors because the people who view this thread and vote will be statistically be more likely to have noticed the same thing.
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On April 11 2011 01:20 DooMDash wrote:
It could be broken for some people. I feel like there is actually a problem and I'd like to see if it actually is before people go dismissing it because they are not experiencing it.
It would be an actual problem if it WASN'T for "some" people. In randomness, it's normal to have outliers. A few anecdotes from people with sample sizes of 50 won't let you determine for sure if there is a problem. Blizz checks this stuff out all the time with a nearly unlimited sample size. You have to trust them.
EDIT: removed argument about map veto because I forgot vetoes don,t affect opponent choice.
Don't you think it's more parsimonious to think that Blizzard can write a algorithm that can handle producing randomness out of 4 choices...
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Random numbers can often seem to be very un-random. That's why their random.
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On April 11 2011 01:26 Noocta wrote:
Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't.
That's assuming it is:
"Look at available maps then decide an opponent" and not
"Look at available opponents, then decide a map".
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flipped a coin four times and got heads three times. that's 75% in favour of heads :/ shouldn't it be around 50% heads and 50% tails? I think there's something wrong with universal physics. has anyone else been experiencing this?
*poll*
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Not this again lol
Binomial probability distribution:
There is no conditional probility, the knowledge of what you have spawned as doesn't have any influence on the probability of your opponents race.
We define the discrete random variable X as the number of mirror match ups. There are 9 matchups. I include zt and tz. So the probability that we get a mirror matchup is: 3 mirror matchups / 9 possible matchups = 1/3 or 0.333 repeating ofcourse. p = 0.333
Everytime you hit que it doesn't matter what your previous matchup was, the events are independent so we can use a binomial probability distribution to calculate the probability of getting "x" amount of mirror matchups in "n" amount of trials.
We will also assume that the order in which you get the mirror matchups does not matter and can happen in any possible order.
Your number of trials was 80.
Your number of mirror matchups was 35.
p(X=35) = (n! / r!(n-r)!) (number of possible ways to get 35 mirror matchups in 80 games) times p^x (the probability of getting a mirror matchup times itself for every occurence of a mirror matchup)
times (1-p)^n-x (the compliment of p, the chance to not get a mirror matchup times itself for every occurence of a non mirror matchup)
equals the probablity to get 35 mirror matchups in 80 games.
I'm lazy so I'll just use this to calculate: http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html
Which gives us a probability of 0.0121 or 1.2%.
I'll leave this here, hope I don't make a fool out of myself, feel free to mess around with the calculator and decide what the odds mean. Because for me, I wouldn't raise an eyebrow if I had the same matchup 1000 times in a row. The human mind is very deceptive to thinking they are spotting a pattern where in reality, there is no such pattern.
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I've been able to predict my race (as random) based on the opponent's by always assuming it's a mirror. Also, the few times I've gotten random vs random, it's been either ZvZ or PvP.
Nope, I don't have statistics, but they wouldn't prove anything anyway, since I haven't played 2000 games.
And seriously, the percentage of mirror match ups is irrelevant to the thread unless you play random.
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On April 11 2011 01:43 NikonTC wrote:
flipped a coin four times and got heads three times. that's 75% in favour of heads :/ shouldn't it be around 50% heads and 50% tails? I think there's something wrong with universal physics. has anyone else been experiencing this?
*poll*
This post hits the nail on the head. Sample sizes are really small here. When you've played 1000 games as random, come back and share your findings.
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On April 11 2011 01:43 NikonTC wrote:
flipped a coin four times and got heads three times. that's 75% in favour of heads :/ shouldn't it be around 50% heads and 50% tails? I think there's something wrong with universal physics. has anyone else been experiencing this?
*poll*
Many of you completely missed the point of the post. I know my sample size is too small, that's why I asked for statistical information from other random players to increase my sample size. Seriously, you all need to read before you make obvious comments. All I want is how many games random players have had as mirrors and how many games they've had as non-mirrors.
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Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random?
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I play Random. On the ladder 5 of my last 16 were mirror and thus 11 of my last 16 were not.
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I play Random on Diamond EU. I haven't noticed that it's off at all.
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On April 11 2011 01:41 Zocat wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 01:26 Noocta wrote:
Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't. That's assuming it is: "Look at available maps then decide an opponent" and not "Look at available opponents, then decide a map".
Hum, i don't know about this to be honest.
Do someone know or it's blizzard privacy ?
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On April 11 2011 02:03 Gnax wrote:
Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random?
Ofcourse not. Theres more protoss players queueing. Thuss the chance of meeting protoss will be 91 procent.
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I play Terran, so I hardly got any mirror.
I got like 5 mirror match out of ~60 games or something.
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[edit] Nevermind, someone already mentioned the veto system. And this is a good point:
On April 11 2011 01:41 Zocat wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 01:26 Noocta wrote:
Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't. That's assuming it is: "Look at available maps then decide an opponent" and not "Look at available opponents, then decide a map".
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I started as Terran, then switched to Random. Since the start of Season 2, I've played around 30 games.
- Rolled terran once or twice.
- Rolled 3-4 PvZ or ZvP
- Rolled ~10 PvP
- Rolled ~10 ZvZ
- Rolled ZERO TvT
Make of that what you will, but goddamn it seems like blizzard is trolling me.
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Well, you cant prove random is not random if you only have finite size sample. Also, all my ~20 games looked well distributed, i mean the matchups, not my race, that was very not randomish.
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Why is -Everyone- playing Protoss now? Honestly I have sooo much TvP's its amazing.
I thought with HT nerf people would leave protoss instead.
I like it though, less mirrors the better.
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On April 11 2011 02:06 Marradron wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 02:03 Gnax wrote:
Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random? Ofcourse not. Theres more protoss players queueing. Thuss the chance of meeting protoss will be 91 procent.
Actually, it WILL still be 33%. You'll get alot more PvP than the other mirrors but if you add the probability of each mirror together, it will give 33%.
(.33*.92)+(.33*.04)+(.33*.04) = .33(1)=.33
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On April 11 2011 02:11 KaiserJohan wrote:
Why is -Everyone- playing Protoss now? Honestly I have sooo much TvP's its amazing.
I thought with HT nerf people would leave protoss instead.
I like it though, less mirrors the better.
Just flavour of the month. Now MC is dominating everyone is just trying to 4gate or 6gate their way into higher leagues. Just as in the terran time everyone was scv allining every game.
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On April 11 2011 02:06 Marradron wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 02:03 Gnax wrote:
Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random? Ofcourse not. Theres more protoss players queueing. Thuss the chance of meeting protoss will be 91 procent.
That doesn't answer the question one bit. I didn't ask what the chances of playing against protoss is. Try again.
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i'm leaning towards coincidence, but i've been experiencing a lot of mirrors and zerg players. like 45/45/10 protoss/zerg/terran. maybe there are just less terran at my current level?
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I play a lot of non-mirror match-ups (lots of TvZ usually). It has recently balanced more recently, though.
Remember that few of the unaffected people will be posting about how they haven't had many mirror matches, while most that do, will.
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I get a lot of PvPs.
and lol @ PvP
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On April 11 2011 01:03 Kujawa wrote:
i too have seen alot of mirrors. I dont think there is something bugged with the matchmaking system. If there is i would be shocked.
The amount of mirror is just absurd tho. Maybe they need to rethink their random system.
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This is the worst case of confirmation bias I have ever seen.
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I've barely played any mirrors in the past few days. Its really weird.
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3-4 ZvZ today, nothing else. Same thing yesterday.
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On April 11 2011 02:02 NinjaDrone wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 01:43 NikonTC wrote:
flipped a coin four times and got heads three times. that's 75% in favour of heads :/ shouldn't it be around 50% heads and 50% tails? I think there's something wrong with universal physics. has anyone else been experiencing this?
*poll* Many of you completely missed the point of the post. I know my sample size is too small, that's why I asked for statistical information from other random players to increase my sample size. Seriously, you all need to read before you make obvious comments. All I want is how many games random players have had as mirrors and how many games they've had as non-mirrors.
If the comments were so obvious to you, you never would of made this thread because you would of realized that:
1 - you won't be getting an unbiased sample
2 - you won't get a decent sample size
3 - you would realize Blizzard already makes these analyses
4 - you would of performed a search and seen these threads already existed on tl.
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ive played a shit ton of PvP the last week
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8 of my last 20 games as random have been mirrors. This is 40%. Its my belief that I get more mirrors than the 33% that should be standard. As I do more games I will keep a record.
3 mirrors vs Z
3 P and 2 T
I dislike mirrors but thats not reall on topic
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i actually enjoy playing mirrors. helps me know if my macro is falling behind
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On April 11 2011 02:06 Noocta wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 01:41 Zocat wrote:On April 11 2011 01:26 Noocta wrote:
Mirrors are a resultut of map veto sometimes.
Each races veto somes maps the other races don't. That's assuming it is: "Look at available maps then decide an opponent" and not "Look at available opponents, then decide a map". Hum, i don't know about this to be honest. Do someone know or it's blizzard privacy ?
To my knowledge nothing specific is known.
From a progammers perspectiver I'd say the 2nd variant is faster / easier to implement (since there are 10 maps total, and only 6 can be vetoed by both players, that means at least 4 maps are available).
In teamgames a problem would arise though. (at least 4 players, each 3 vetoes -> 12 vetoed map in the worst case). Though there are still other options to implement it.
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On April 11 2011 02:22 REM.ca wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 02:02 NinjaDrone wrote:On April 11 2011 01:43 NikonTC wrote:
flipped a coin four times and got heads three times. that's 75% in favour of heads :/ shouldn't it be around 50% heads and 50% tails? I think there's something wrong with universal physics. has anyone else been experiencing this?
*poll* Many of you completely missed the point of the post. I know my sample size is too small, that's why I asked for statistical information from other random players to increase my sample size. Seriously, you all need to read before you make obvious comments. All I want is how many games random players have had as mirrors and how many games they've had as non-mirrors. If the comments were so obvious to you, you never would of made this thread because you would of realized that: 1 - you won't be getting an unbiased sample 2 - you won't get a decent sample size 3 - you would realize Blizzard already makes these analyses 4 - you would of performed a search and seen these threads already existed on tl.
1: Perhaps. Perhaps not. I figure people will on average will want to prove or disprove me equally.
2: Absolutely no evidence this will occur. There are over 14,000 active members on TL so it doesn't take many to get a significant sample size.
3: And what proof do you have of this? Please include links.
4: I did do a search. I could not find any thread discussing a potential problem with random players getting a disproportionate number of mirror match ups in season 2. If there is one then please provide the link.
How about people stop making comments with no basis in fact and instead disprove my claims with statistics (as a few have tried to do.) If you're a random and you haven't been seeing what I've been seeing then give me your stats and I'll incorporate them into my data.
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Got 8 ZvZ's in a row yesterday, got pissed and stopped playing 1v1.
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Right, checked the numbers, played 32 ladder games during season 2, 16 of those were mirrors. I was playing random, of course.
May be be within the margin of error, but annoying regardless.
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Just checked, my last 24 games of season 2 were 12 mirror matches, not that big of a diference, but still strange
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All I have noticed is a lot of Zergs. I think a lot of people decided to switch to zerg after the reset. At least in platinum.
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Blizzard matchmaking probably sees race as secondary. The most important thing to find a match fast, so it is more dependent on who is online than on the random function. I think you just get a random one from the ones that are waiting the longest in your skill rank. Maybe race is even tertiary in the selection process. (who is available, who is waiting the longest, then maybe race) Also a lot of people don't like mirrors and peopl tend to remember negative feelings better than positive ones.
In short: I don't believe blizzard is making us play more mirrors to annoy us.
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are you serious lol most people have voted they get more mirror than they should
this is beyond stupid, there is no conspiracy wtf hahahaha
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im playing too much TvP and TvZ .. you guys are lucky i want TvT cause no one is good at it
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I'm zerg and I have to say 80 percent are mirrors
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I play P and I have not played very many PvP at all
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I automatically assume something is wrong with OP when there is a biased poll. Its actually a good way to filter math threads in TL.
I have 34% mirror match ups. OH SNAP
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For me, according to SC2gears which I've been using for 3 months, I get 40% PvP, 40% PvZ, and 20% PvT (out of 330 games). It seems like something in the matchmaking system is off, maybe I'm just unlucky, maybe terran is just played less. It would be cool if they made the system intentionally even out the % you play each race.
EDIT: bleh just read the OP fully instead of skimming it, didn't realize this thread was about random players, i play protoss...
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This thread is about random not about other races.
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players.
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As a protoss player, I play about
30% PvP
50% PvZ
20% PvT
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<edit>
nvm misunterdood the OP..
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Im a zerg player and I get a very high percentage of ZvZ's a fair amount of ZvP and barely any ZvT's at all.
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Unfortunately I switch between races (including random) a ton so I cant actually give my exact numbers but I have found that I hit more mirrors as random. The last string of games I played as random a few months ago, I hit 7 mirrors in a row including 2 RvRs where we both got the same race. D:
Edit: So I cant give numbers for random but I can do each race I guess.
80 ZvZs, 81 ZvPs, 66 ZvTs
102 TvZs, 102 TvPs, 69 TvTs
170 PvZs, 171 PvPs, 136 PvTs
So no real inclination towards mirrors on my end, and overall the least games vs Terran with very even numbers of games vs Zerg and Vs Protoss. This pretty much perfectly reflects the distribution of races at my level.
Source: Sc2ranks.com
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Also most people feel they encounter mirrors more often since they hate playing them and thus remember the experience.
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Funny, I thought it was just a coincidence. I think troughout the week about 50% of my games have been ZvZ whereas previous season it was like 20% I think. I figured it was just because more Zerg players started playing again with the new season/patch.
However, my friend, who plays Protoss, also said most of his games were PvP. We both have pretty much the same rating and play around the same time on the same server so this was really weird.
Now I read this thread and I really think there has to be something wrong with the matchmaking system or something.
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On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
This thread is about random not about other races.
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players.
Except that it is extremely unlikely that whatever way they calculate the race to use for a random player takes into account the opponent's race. This is probably just a result of poor sample size and confirmation bias.
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On April 11 2011 04:26 Marradron wrote:
Also most people feel they encounter mirrors more often since they hate playing them and thus remember the experience.
Thats why the OP said to use SC2Gears to verify that your last 10 or 20 or 50 games are in fact mirrors. He's trying to get statistical data to back up his claims and a lot of people are just shitting all over him for trying to get some help.
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On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players.
Yeah, pseudo-random is much more evenly distributed than real random... So it would be surprising to find anything wrong with it... though we dont know the exact algorithm (or at least i dont, point me somewhere if i can find it there, straight from Blizz possibly).
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as protoss i get PvP 60% of the time
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quoted posts = read more often
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I think all the races are just playing each other, concluding in nobody playing different races @_@
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So many things are wrong with this thread and the posts in reply to it...so much bias compounded with wrong inferences made from wrong assumptions.
1.) you start with the assumption that the proportion of players near your MMR who play each race is equal (i.e. 1/3 P, Z, T) when there is no evidence that actually supports this.
2.) You then extrapolate from your sample size of 88 (which others have pointed out already is too small) that a 44% mirror matchup rate is "too high" without even knowing if 1.) is true.
3.) Finally, your solution is to figure out the answer to your question by asking a poll that is begging to churn out an extremely biased result. The vast majority of the people who replied didn't read the whole thread or even understand the title, judging from the number of players who have responded who don't play random. In addition, mirror matchups carry a psychological bias; just look at the number of people who hate PvP and ZvZ (and thus are more prone to feel like they play more mirrors than normal)
The amount of anecdotal evidence being thrown around in this thread is pretty hilarious too. "I'd say I get 50% mirror and 25 PvZ and 25 PvT" lol wtf?
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I play toss and i play a ridiculous amount of PvP on the ladder. But then again some days I hit 5-6 different terrans all in a row. It's very random.
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You can only assume that you should get a 33% chance of mirror if the race distribution is even, which it definitely is not.
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On April 11 2011 04:29 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 04:26 Marradron wrote:
Also most people feel they encounter mirrors more often since they hate playing them and thus remember the experience. Thats why the OP said to use SC2Gears to verify that your last 10 or 20 or 50 games are in fact mirrors. He's trying to get statistical data to back up his claims and a lot of people are just shitting all over him for trying to get some help.
Yeah thats gonna be biased anyway. Anyone who doesnt feel the problem isn't gonna upload replays. I sure won't. Just look at the poll. It's completely biased.
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On April 11 2011 02:14 Gnax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 02:06 Marradron wrote:On April 11 2011 02:03 Gnax wrote:
Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random? Ofcourse not. Theres more protoss players queueing. Thuss the chance of meeting protoss will be 91 procent. That doesn't answer the question one bit. I didn't ask what the chances of playing against protoss is. Try again.
To answer your question, yes, you still get a theoretical 1/3 chance, simple math: add up the chances, assuming you roll each race for yourself with 1/3 chance and the player base is distributed on your MMR level as you stated above:
If you roll T/Z, your enemy will be T/Z with 4%, with P its 92% (you must add the random's 1/3*playerbase chance too), you add up, divide by 3, and you got your 1/3 chance
On April 11 2011 04:40 awu25 wrote:
You can only assume that you should get a 33% chance of mirror if the race distribution is even, which it definitely is not.
Same for you. The thread is about random players, they ALWAYS have the 1/3 chance (in theory ofc).
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On April 11 2011 04:44 shinarit wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 02:14 Gnax wrote:On April 11 2011 02:06 Marradron wrote:On April 11 2011 02:03 Gnax wrote:
Hmm I am curious about one thing. Maybe some of the math geniuses here can answer.
Lets say 91% of the player base plays Protoss, 3% plays Zerg, 3% plays Terran and 3% plays Random.
Is there still 33% chance that you get a mirror match up when you play as random? Ofcourse not. Theres more protoss players queueing. Thuss the chance of meeting protoss will be 91 procent. That doesn't answer the question one bit. I didn't ask what the chances of playing against protoss is. Try again. To answer your question, yes, you still get a theoretical 1/3 chance, simple math: add up the chances, assuming you roll each race for yourself with 1/3 chance and the player base is distributed on your MMR level as you stated above: If you roll T/Z, your enemy will be T/Z with 4%, with P its 92% (you must add the random's 1/3*playerbase chance too), you add up, divide by 3, and you got your 1/3 chance Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 04:40 awu25 wrote:
You can only assume that you should get a 33% chance of mirror if the race distribution is even, which it definitely is not. Same for you. The thread is about random players, they ALWAYS have the 1/3 chance (in theory ofc).
Thank you. So that means that people can stop using arguments like race distribution to prove that the OPs stats are not valid. Even tough it's a small sample size, with more people adding their own stats it will indeed be a better sample size at some point, asuming people are telling the truth ofc.
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On April 11 2011 04:30 shinarit wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players. Yeah, pseudo-random is much more evenly distributed than real random... So it would be surprising to find anything wrong with it... though we dont know the exact algorithm (or at least i dont, point me somewhere if i can find it there, straight from Blizz possibly).
This whole thread is incredible, but as a programmer, this post is my favorite.
d
Pseudo-random, by definition, is not random but statistically cannot be distinguished from random. A pseudo-random number generator that created numbers more evenly distributed than real random numbers would by that very fact reveal itself as non-random and could then be predicted to some extent without knowledge of the algorithm used ot generate the numbers. Thus, the generator would not be pseudo-random.
Thus, you are full of crap. QED.
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TvT PvP ZvZ - 3 Mirrors
TvP TvZ PvZ - 3 Non-Mirrors
Shouldn't you get 50% mirrors? Where are you guys getting the 33% from?
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On April 11 2011 05:02 ThaZenith wrote:
TvT PvP ZvZ - 3 Mirrors
TvP TvZ PvZ - 3 Non-Mirrors
Shouldn't you get 50% mirrors? Where are you guys getting the 33% from?
More like TvT PvP ZvZ - 3 Mirrors
TvP PvT TvZ ZvT PvZ ZvP - 6 Non-Mirrors
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12/13 of my first games of the reset were PvPs
Even after that i'd say 60% or more are mirror matchups
PvP sucks
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On April 11 2011 05:02 ThaZenith wrote:
TvT PvP ZvZ - 3 Mirrors
TvP TvZ PvZ - 3 Non-Mirrors
Shouldn't you get 50% mirrors? Where are you guys getting the 33% from? If you play Random, you have a 33% chance of rolling the same race as your opponent. For one player, TvP is different than PvT (in one you are the T, in one you are the P), so your count should look like:
TvT PvP ZvZ - 3 mirrors
TvP PvT TvZ ZvT PvZ ZvP - 6 non-mirrors.
33%.
That said, there is nothing wrong with Blizzard's random number generator -- this thread is actually ridiculous. Small sample sizes and massive confirmation bias and the psychological effect of people disliking mirrors and over-estimating how many times they play them are all combining to have a ridiculous result.
If you really want statistics on it, why don't you just do a custom game, play as random, and see how many times you get each race. Do it 1000 times, and I bet you will be right at ~33%, ~33%, ~33%.
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As a random player, the last few times I actually laddered I did get a lot of mirror match ups.
However the sample size of my ladder games is pretty small so it doesn't say much.
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Tbh you won't get enough data even if you have thousands of players to be completely sure.
If I were you I'd just trust that Random is indeed Random and the matchmaker does not match players based on race.
Yeah thats gonna be biased anyway. Anyone who doesnt feel the problem isn't gonna upload replays. I sure won't. Just look at the poll. It's completely biased.
Yup, this is a big problem regarding the "accuracy" of studies/surveys etc.
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44% in 80 games is actually an indication that things are working as intended. If you have played 8000 matches and you still have 44% mirrors, then we might start speculating.
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And of course this polls gonna be biased, everybody who's thinking this ( maybe wrongly) will visit this thread and vote. Most of the people who say "that's bullshit" just won't visit this thread and vote
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I think this is very race/league dependant. And we need some more info. Master's are riddled with P and Z, and I almost never get to mirror anymore (i play terran)
Over the past two days I have played 48 games, 6 of which were tvt, and one of those tvt's was vs random.
Also, looking at my ladder I just noticed I am the only terran in the top 8, and 1 of 3 terrans in the top 25.
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On April 11 2011 05:18 Arkless wrote:
I think this is very race/league dependant. And we need some more info. Master's are riddled with P and Z, and I almost never get to mirror anymore (i play terran)
Over the past two days I have played 48 games, 6 of which were tvt, and one of those tvt's was vs random.
Also, looking at my ladder I just noticed I am the only terran in the top 8, and 1 of 3 terrans in the top 25.
Please, read the OP. He is talking about Random players only. However absurd the premise of this thread is, it still has nothing to do with race distribution. I don't understand why people keep doing this.
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On April 11 2011 05:17 nkr wrote:
44% in 80 games is actually an indication that things are working as intended. If you have played 8000 matches and you still have 44% mirrors, then we might start speculating.
Exactly this. Nobody has played enough games to say whether it is "random" or not, not even close.
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Don't ever play poker. It's just variance man.
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P vs
+ Show Spoiler +
T vs
+ Show Spoiler +
Z vs
+ Show Spoiler +
I've stared logging all my games since reset in a spreadsheet. When I first read your post I thought you were crazy, but my (admittedly small) dataset agrees with yours.
22/51 = 43%
I'm so rusty on my statistics I can't give you a precise confidence interval, but I think its a safe guess that 43% is well within it. This means I still think you're crazy but I'll be interested in tracking this over the whole season.
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Out of 20 games played yesterday 15 were PvP
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map preferences might be affecting the ratio of races you face
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Let's not have the word "significant" involved with "statistics" without actually knowing how statistics work, especially when it's "I feel like it's significant..." >.>
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On April 11 2011 05:33 jeebuzzx wrote:
map preferences might be affecting the ratio of races you face Again, this would have no effect on the percentage of mirror match-ups that a RANDOM PLAYER would get. If you play R, it doesn't matter what the distribution is for the races of your opponents. You should still expect ~33% mirror match-ups.
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On April 11 2011 04:56 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 04:30 shinarit wrote:On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players. Yeah, pseudo-random is much more evenly distributed than real random... So it would be surprising to find anything wrong with it... though we dont know the exact algorithm (or at least i dont, point me somewhere if i can find it there, straight from Blizz possibly). This whole thread is incredible, but as a programmer, this post is my favorite. d Pseudo-random, by definition, is not random but statistically cannot be distinguished from random. A pseudo-random number generator that created numbers more evenly distributed than real random numbers would by that very fact reveal itself as non-random and could then be predicted to some extent without knowledge of the algorithm used ot generate the numbers. Thus, the generator would not be pseudo-random. Thus, you are full of crap. QED.
I think you will be surprised and your world will be crushed: pseudo random generators are not random generators. They are ofcourse cannot be distinguished, but thats because random generator cannot be identified in a finite sample.
But what we were talking about were the random generators of our computers. And if you ever tried one of them (as a programmer you should have, i know i did), they produce a very even distribution, even in low size sample. Real random CAN produce it as well, but it tends not to.
So whats with the crap and all the crunchertalk? You demonstrate nothing, just throw in stuff everyone knows and which are irrelevant to the topic.
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The problem with that is that randomization is bound to the law of great numbers. So we can't evaluate how good is their matchmaking script unless we have data from a "great number" of games. In this case i think only blizzard can have collect data on such a large scale.
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I've been getting a lot of mirror match ups but I don't have the solid statistical evidence. Is there an easier way to pull the matchup information than going to match history? It seems like a LOT of work to go back and check 40-50 games to see if it was or was not a mirror match by clicking every individual match.
Anyway, I seem to get a lot of mirror matches but i think random has a lot of weirdness about it. Last season I would pick random and get zerg 5-10 times in a row regardless of what my opponent was. I don't know if its perfect randomness and such.
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I would say i hit about 75% zvz this season sitting at around mid master. Out of about 60 games i have hit 3 Terrans
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I wouldn't say I've had a lot of TvT recently. TvP on the other hand seems to be around 60-70% for me.
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On April 11 2011 05:41 savagebeavers wrote:
I would say i hit about 75% zvz this season sitting at around mid master. Out of about 60 games i have hit 3 Terrans
On April 11 2011 05:44 LambtrOn wrote:
I wouldn't say I've had a lot of TvT recently. TvP on the other hand seems to be around 60-70% for me.
Did either of you read the OP? This is about RANDOM PLAYERS ONLY. If you are hitting a lot of P that has nothing to do with the amount of mirror match-ups that a random player will see. You are posting in the wrong thread.
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When I play as protoss I get way more pvp then I should, and when I play as zerg I get way more zvz than I should. Both mirrors are around 50% I would say. I often will get a few pvps in a row. It pisses me off.
edit: this didnt start in season 2 though. This has been going on for about 2 months I would say.
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On April 11 2011 05:37 shinarit wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 04:56 AmericanUmlaut wrote:On April 11 2011 04:30 shinarit wrote:On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players. Yeah, pseudo-random is much more evenly distributed than real random... So it would be surprising to find anything wrong with it... though we dont know the exact algorithm (or at least i dont, point me somewhere if i can find it there, straight from Blizz possibly). This whole thread is incredible, but as a programmer, this post is my favorite. d Pseudo-random, by definition, is not random but statistically cannot be distinguished from random. A pseudo-random number generator that created numbers more evenly distributed than real random numbers would by that very fact reveal itself as non-random and could then be predicted to some extent without knowledge of the algorithm used ot generate the numbers. Thus, the generator would not be pseudo-random. Thus, you are full of crap. QED. I think you will be surprised and your world will be crushed: pseudo random generators are not random generators. They are ofcourse cannot be distinguished, but thats because random generator cannot be identified in a finite sample. But what we were talking about were the random generators of our computers. And if you ever tried one of them (as a programmer you should have, i know i did), they produce a very even distribution, even in low size sample. Real random CAN produce it as well, but it tends not to. So whats with the crap and all the crunchertalk? You demonstrate nothing, just throw in stuff everyone knows and which are irrelevant to the topic.
I was pointing out that your comment on pseudorandom algorithms was logically contradictory, because a pseudorandom generator that could be shown to have a more even distribution of values than a truly random source of numbers would by definition not be pseudorandom. This demonstrates that you either don't understand the words that you are using, or you're intentionally saying things that aren't true.
Your comment about pseudorandom behavior producing a very even distribution, "even in a low size sample," is a perfect example of the silliness of this entire thread, which probably only hasn't been closed yet because the mods were enjoying the TSL. No statistical observation based on a low sample size has any significance.
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On April 11 2011 05:29 CakeOrI)eath wrote:P vs + Show Spoiler +T vs + Show Spoiler +Z vs + Show Spoiler +I've stared logging all my games since reset in a spreadsheet. When I first read your post I thought you were crazy, but my (admittedly small) dataset agrees with yours. 22/51 = 43% I'm so rusty on my statistics I can't give you a precise confidence interval, but I think its a safe guess that 43% is well within it. This means I still think you're crazy but I'll be interested in tracking this over the whole season.
And you hit 11/51 P and 25/51 Z, so what's your point?
You can't conclude jack shit from any of this data.
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you have to remember you are playing RANDOM so that means 33.3333333**% chance to be any race every match up, the game isnt going to be like o you are random and hes Terran lets not give u the same % chance of being Terran because of it. honestly you being a random player means you will have a lot of mirrors because of the simple fact there are only 3 races, and well you are a Random player.
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It seems 60% of my games are zvz
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I played 11 ladder games the other day, 8 of them were Zerg vrs. Zerg. Most days its pretty balanced, but I do get those days where there is just a huuuuuge sway in mirror matchups.
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The human brain is a pattern recognition machine.
It does this so zealously it seeks out patterns where none exist.
Whether it's seeing shaes in the clouds or "patterns" in random numbers or events.
There's always a "pattern" if you really want to find one.
"omg a bunch of even numbers in a row"
"omg a bunch of odd numbers in a row"
"omg a bunch of multiples of X in a row"
etc.
Sample size, variance, etc. etc.
Another thing to bear in mind is that there are hundreds of thousands of people playing. Just due to the sheer number there are going to be some people who have very rare looking things happen to them.
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it probably feels like you have more mirror matchups because people don't like them very much. People probably just remember the matches more often because they don't like them.
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Now I'm not math major, and for the record I want to state that this post doesn't actually contribute to the thread in any manner, but I do want to ask...
I think 33% is not what you should be rolling for mirrors as random. I think it would be more like 11%, or 1/3 of 1/3. Allow me to explain:
Assume your possible race is set X, containing A, B, C.
Assume your opponents possible races are set Y, coincidentally also containing A, B, C.
Assuming that a random value is picked from set X to determine your race, you have an approximately 33% chance of rolling any given race. If at the same time, your opponent's race is also determined by randomly pulling a value from set Y, they also have a 33% chance of rolling any given race.
With these assumptions, I think we can state that you are 33% likely to get A from set X, but only 33% of THOSE times that A is pulled from set X will A also be pulled from set Y. Consequently, we must conclude that if you play random you should only be getting mirrors about 1/9 of the time (1/3 * 1/3).
Is that not correct?
Edit:
I'm just pointing this out to say that (as you have correctly noted) if your sample size were big enough to be significant, mirror matchups for random players would be occurring statistically too often if it were more than 11%, not 33%.
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thats wrong nesix because when you enter a game one of the races is already determined. If you are random then at startup screen you have a 33% chance of getting every race still but the opponents race has been determined 100%. However if it is random vs random then your logic would hold.
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On April 11 2011 06:42 neSix wrote:
Now I'm not math major, and for the record I want to state that this post doesn't actually contribute to the thread in any manner, but I do want to ask...
I think 33% is not what you should be rolling for mirrors as random. I think it would be more like 11%, or 1/3 of 1/3. Allow me to explain:
Assume your possible race is set X, containing A, B, C.
Assume your opponents possible races are set Y, coincidentally also containing A, B, C.
Assuming that a random value is picked from set X to determine your race, you have an approximately 33% chance of rolling any given race. If at the same time, your opponent's race is also determined by randomly pulling a value from set Y, they also have a 33% chance of rolling any given race.
With these assumptions, I think we can state that you are 33% likely to get A from set X, but only 33% of THOSE times that A is pulled from set X will A also be pulled from set Y. Consequently, we must conclude that if you play random you should only be getting mirrors about 1/9 of the time (1/3 * 1/3).
Is that not correct?
Edit:
I'm just pointing this out to say that (as you have correctly noted) if your sample size were big enough to be significant, mirror matchups for random players would be occurring statistically too often if it were more than 11%, not 33%.
Took a while but I think where the error is. Atleast what I think is the error.
Your calculations are correct and thats how you can determine the probablity for an A-A mirror matchup.
But there is also the 1/9th chance of the B-B and the 1/9th chance of the C-C mirror matchup. All of them are part of the set of solutions of the number of mirror matchups. It then becomes 3x1/9th and we are back at 3/9th, 1/3th probability for a mirror matchup as random in a single independent game.
On April 11 2011 06:47 eVolvE342 wrote:
thats wrong nesix because when you enter a game one of the races is already determined. If you are random then at startup screen you have a 33% chance of getting every race still but the opponents race has been determined 100%. However if it is random vs random then your logic would hold.
I don't think you can assume that your race isn't determined during the loading screen but I don't know how that matters either. The knowledge of the race of your opponent doesn't affect the probability for you to get one of the 3 races. All the events are independend and thus there is no conditional probability. And the chance to get the mirror matchup becomes 1/3th. So that is correct, but you are ommiting the possibilities that didn't happen. That your opponent spawned as one of the other races. So in the total sample of possibilities, that 1/3th chance still leads to the 1/9th in total.
Ergo, taking probabilities like this, it doesn't really matter if only you are random or if your opponent is also random. And when we consider your opponents are a certain race, but whom of those you play is also random than everything is the same. Except for a person queing with a certain race. Only that would limit the options to only 3 of the other possible races.
So in terms of chances to get mirror matchups. It's 1/3th for random players and 1/3th for people who que with the same race.
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Not sure what the confusion is about the likelihood of getting a mirror match up as Random.
There are nine match ups as Random, three of them are mirrors. 3/9 = 1/3 = 33.3%
ZvZ
ZvP
ZvT
PvP
PvZ
PvT
TvT
TvZ
TvP
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On April 11 2011 06:42 neSix wrote:
Now I'm not math major, and for the record I want to state that this post doesn't actually contribute to the thread in any manner, but I do want to ask...
I think 33% is not what you should be rolling for mirrors as random. I think it would be more like 11%, or 1/3 of 1/3. Allow me to explain:
Assume your possible race is set X, containing A, B, C.
Assume your opponents possible races are set Y, coincidentally also containing A, B, C.
Assuming that a random value is picked from set X to determine your race, you have an approximately 33% chance of rolling any given race. If at the same time, your opponent's race is also determined by randomly pulling a value from set Y, they also have a 33% chance of rolling any given race.
With these assumptions, I think we can state that you are 33% likely to get A from set X, but only 33% of THOSE times that A is pulled from set X will A also be pulled from set Y. Consequently, we must conclude that if you play random you should only be getting mirrors about 1/9 of the time (1/3 * 1/3).
Is that not correct?
Edit:
I'm just pointing this out to say that (as you have correctly noted) if your sample size were big enough to be significant, mirror matchups for random players would be occurring statistically too often if it were more than 11%, not 33%.
This is only true for specific mirrors, such as the likelihood you'll get PvP or ZvZ specifically, even in RvR. It's also only true when the racial representation for all 3 races is equal.
Think about it:
Let's say your opponent is T. You pick R.
1/3 of the time you'll hit T vs his T. IF the racial representation of players you face is equal (1/3 P, T, Z) then you'll hit T players 1/3 of the time, whic means 1/9 of your matchups should be TvT specifically. This works with any specific matchup in the ideal situation.
Let's say your opponent is R.
1/3 of the time, you hit P. Every time you hit P, 1/3 of those times your opponent will also hit P. Thus, in RvR. You have a 1/9 chance of hitting PvP (or any other matchup, for that matter)
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Since I started using SC2Gears,
41 ZvP
35 ZvZ
21 ZvT
Matches pretty well with the racial distribution.
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SC2Gears
16 PvP
8 PvT
7 PvZ
FML
Doing a 1 stat z test, the p value I got was .015, RAGE
Of course, I'm not random, so do whatever
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On April 11 2011 08:11 Sentient wrote:
Since I started using SC2Gears,
41 ZvP
35 ZvZ
21 ZvT
Matches pretty well with the racial distribution.
On April 11 2011 08:33 pikagrue wrote:
SC2Gears
16 PvP
8 PvT
7 PvZ
FML
Doing a 1 stat z test, the p value I got was .015, RAGE
Of course, I'm not random, so do whatever
Again, two people who did not read the OP, or who just aren't trying to contribute to the thread...
If you aren't playing Random, then your distribution of match-ups is going to be completely dependent on the distribution of the races that people with similar MMR play. Neither of these posts has anything to do with the amount of mirror match-ups that a RANDOM PLAYER would get. All they say is that the # of people who play P > Z > T, which is a topic for a different thread.
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So what's the probability of a random player who hasn't had (or noticed) an unusual number of mirror matchups actually contributing to the thread?
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Okay, I just looked at SC2 Gears. I have not noticed anything weird. However, this includes all of my games since November after I made my switch from Z to random, so take that with a grain of salt. (i.e. it is not exclusive to this season) I also have exactly 12 and 21 extra games as P and T, respectively, because I played that many games as each race to learn them during November/December.
Record as T: 51-26-1 or 78 total. TvT, 18-5 or 23 total. TvZ, 17-11 or 28 total. TvP, 16-10-1 or 27 total.
Record as P: 42-23-1 or 66 total. PvT, 6-8-0 or 14 total. PvZ, 26-6-1 or 33 total. PvP 10-9 or 19 total.
Record as Z: 30-22-4 or 56 total. ZvT, 9-4-1, or 14 total. ZvZ, 11-12-2, or 25 total. ZvP 10-6-1, or 17 total.
All 9 matchups:
200 games total
TvT: 23 games or 11.5%
TvZ: 28 games or 14%
TvP 27 games or 13.35%
PvT 14 games or 7%
PvZ 33 games or 16.5%
PvP 19 games or 9.5%
ZvT 14 games or 7%
ZvZ 25 games or 12.5%
ZvP 17 games or 8.5%
The only thing I notice is that I play a lot of Zergs, and more Protoss than Terran, which perhaps suggests that the number of Zergs near my MMR>the number of Protoss near my MMR>the number of Terrans near my MMR. Everything else is normal, and if you discount my practice custom games you see that I have replays for 167 games with a breakdown of 56 as Z, 54 as P, and 57 as T, which suggests that nothing is wrong with the randomizer.
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Wow this is actually true, I've played 12 PvP's in a row (over three days), and this morning I played 3 ZvZ's when i tried out zerg..
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On April 11 2011 00:54 DarkRise wrote:
I'm low masters protoss and i pretty much get 50% PVTs, 30%PVP, 20% vs Z
i think it depends on your division or league.
Expect more Ps in low league, Zs or Ts in mid and a mix in upper league
same, but i get like 50% pvp 49% zerg and once a month i might play a terran
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Here are my stats when I play random:
Replays: 99
PvP: 10
ZvZ: 6
TvT: 6
PvZ & ZvP: 30
PvT & TvP: 25
ZvT & TvZ: 22
Mirror matchup: 22.22%
Non-Mirror matchup: 77.77%
Protoss Stats for reference (different account and I realize you are not asking for this):
PvP: 247
Non-PvP: 210
Mirror Matchup: 54%
Non-Mirror matchup: 46%
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On April 11 2011 10:17 PokePill wrote:
Here are my stats when I play random:
Replays: 99
PvP: 10
ZvZ: 6
TvT: 6
PvZ & ZvP: 30
PvT & TvP: 25
ZvT & TvZ: 22
Seems normal to me, looks like more Ps near your MMR (while there are more Zs near mine)
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I get too many Random vs. Random match ups...which then turn into PvP or ZvZ. I haven't gotten Terran in ages.
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So many people doing complex maths. Pretty sure it's quite straight forward.
Let P(z), P(t), P(p) be the probability that you roll either zerg, terran or protoss.
Let P(oz), P(ot), P(op) be the probability that your opponent is zerg, terran or protoss.
Let P(mm) be the probability of a mirror match
P(mm) = P(z)*P(oz)+P(t)*P(ot)+P(p)*P(op)
now P(z)=P(t)=P(p)=1/3
therefore you get P(mm) = 1/3(P(oz)+P(ot)+P(op))
but P(oz)+P(ot)+P(op) = 1 since your opponent can only be 1 or 3 races (unless I've been out of the loop for too long).
so P(mm) = 1/3*1 = 1/3 i.e. irrespective of the distribution of races being played. If you are a random player you should get a mirror match 1/3 of the time. Sure you might get more PvPs than other mirror match ups but still 1/3 mirror matchups.
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If you are in a higher league and you play as Protoss or Zerg, you should have more mirrors, as there is less Terran players in those leagues. Protoss is the most played race overall, so if you're a protoss player you better start liking PvP Also, map downvotes might have something to do with it too.
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On April 11 2011 09:30 wherebugsgo wrote:
Okay, I just looked at SC2 Gears. I have not noticed anything weird. However, this includes all of my games since November after I made my switch from Z to random, so take that with a grain of salt. (i.e. it is not exclusive to this season) I also have exactly 12 and 21 extra games as P and T, respectively, because I played that many games as each race to learn them during November/December.
Record as T: 51-26-1 or 78 total. TvT, 18-5 or 23 total. TvZ, 17-11 or 28 total. TvP, 16-10-1 or 27 total.
Record as P: 42-23-1 or 66 total. PvT, 6-8-0 or 14 total. PvZ, 26-6-1 or 33 total. PvP 10-9 or 19 total.
Record as Z: 30-22-4 or 56 total. ZvT, 9-4-1, or 14 total. ZvZ, 11-12-2, or 25 total. ZvP 10-6-1, or 17 total.
All 9 matchups:
200 games total
TvT: 23 games or 11.5%
TvZ: 28 games or 14%
TvP 27 games or 13.35%
PvT 14 games or 7%
PvZ 33 games or 16.5%
PvP 19 games or 9.5%
ZvT 14 games or 7%
ZvZ 25 games or 12.5%
ZvP 17 games or 8.5%
The only thing I notice is that I play a lot of Zergs, and more Protoss than Terran, which perhaps suggests that the number of Zergs near my MMR>the number of Protoss near my MMR>the number of Terrans near my MMR. Everything else is normal, and if you discount my practice custom games you see that I have replays for 167 games with a breakdown of 56 as Z, 54 as P, and 57 as T, which suggests that nothing is wrong with the randomizer.
Can you please give me your season 2 stats only because that's what I'm trying to analyze. Its relatively easy to do with sc2gears. Just only highlight the games from 1.3.1 patch for analyses. Thanks a lot, the more data I can get the better.
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On April 11 2011 10:50 NinjaDrone wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 09:30 wherebugsgo wrote:
Okay, I just looked at SC2 Gears. I have not noticed anything weird. However, this includes all of my games since November after I made my switch from Z to random, so take that with a grain of salt. (i.e. it is not exclusive to this season) I also have exactly 12 and 21 extra games as P and T, respectively, because I played that many games as each race to learn them during November/December.
Record as T: 51-26-1 or 78 total. TvT, 18-5 or 23 total. TvZ, 17-11 or 28 total. TvP, 16-10-1 or 27 total.
Record as P: 42-23-1 or 66 total. PvT, 6-8-0 or 14 total. PvZ, 26-6-1 or 33 total. PvP 10-9 or 19 total.
Record as Z: 30-22-4 or 56 total. ZvT, 9-4-1, or 14 total. ZvZ, 11-12-2, or 25 total. ZvP 10-6-1, or 17 total.
All 9 matchups:
200 games total
TvT: 23 games or 11.5%
TvZ: 28 games or 14%
TvP 27 games or 13.35%
PvT 14 games or 7%
PvZ 33 games or 16.5%
PvP 19 games or 9.5%
ZvT 14 games or 7%
ZvZ 25 games or 12.5%
ZvP 17 games or 8.5%
The only thing I notice is that I play a lot of Zergs, and more Protoss than Terran, which perhaps suggests that the number of Zergs near my MMR>the number of Protoss near my MMR>the number of Terrans near my MMR. Everything else is normal, and if you discount my practice custom games you see that I have replays for 167 games with a breakdown of 56 as Z, 54 as P, and 57 as T, which suggests that nothing is wrong with the randomizer. Can you please give me your season 2 stats only because that's what I'm trying to analyze. Its relatively easy to do with sc2gears. Just only highlight the games from 1.3.1 patch for analyses. Thanks a lot, the more data I can get the better.
Okay, I just did it again. Apparently I hadn't been auto-saving my replays until very recently (lol) so the data didn't change much.
154 games total.
TvX 75 games = 48.7% (I just remembered I practiced with T for a couple dozen games, particularly TvP. This is why T is overrepresented here)
TvT 21 games = 13.6%
TvZ 27 games = 17.5%
TvP 27 games = 17.5%
PvX 45 games = 29.2% (also practiced 5-6 PvPs. Damn my PvP is only 50% ;/ )
PvT 9 games = 5.8%
PvZ 20 games = 13%
PvP 16 games = 10.4%
ZvX 34 games = 22%
ZvT 7 games = 4.5%
ZvP 10 games = 6.5%
ZvZ 17 games = 11%
Total mirrors: 54 games = 35%
Nothing weird. Seems like a low number of Ts and a large number of Zs at my MMR.
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Okay I'll jump in, for maybe someone that wants to compile the people their stats here.
Race: Zerg
Total games: 116
Game distribution:
vsZerg: 51
vsProtoss: 45
vsTerran: 20
Mirrors: 44%
Yes I realize it's not a lot of games, but it's still a good amount above the "normal" number of 33%
Maybe it's basicly just caused by the lack of terrans, and it's just "luck" that I get more Zergs then protoss.
Win/Loss/Draw/percentage
vsZerg 26-25-0 50%
vsProtoss 20-23-2 46%
vsTerran 16-4-0 80%
Overall: 54%
I added the win percentages because I feel like something very strange is going on with terran, I do have to say that I played a lot of terran towards the end of season 1 because I got tired of zerg, and the MU I practiced the most is ZvT, but still.
(and 2 of those losses were against that fast, ton of rax, pull all scv's and marines allin after)
I'm absolutely destroying terrans for some reason, my initial thought was that it just tried to find terrans in the hope of balancing out the race distribution for my games played, and the most of them were just much lower then me, but I didn't get anything special in terms of points, all between 9 and 12
So it kinda boggles my mind why I get paired up against terrans that seem to be below my skilllevel.
And it's not really me playing great, but just the terrans playing very poorly.
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(mathcrafting o_O)
I'm a random player and I've went through my records but they seem pretty balanced. No oversaturation of mirror matchups.
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On April 11 2011 05:50 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2011 05:37 shinarit wrote:On April 11 2011 04:56 AmericanUmlaut wrote:On April 11 2011 04:30 shinarit wrote:On April 11 2011 04:14 Klive5ive wrote:
Random numbers are never actually "random" for computers so it's not inconceivable that there's something slightly wrong for random players. Yeah, pseudo-random is much more evenly distributed than real random... So it would be surprising to find anything wrong with it... though we dont know the exact algorithm (or at least i dont, point me somewhere if i can find it there, straight from Blizz possibly). This whole thread is incredible, but as a programmer, this post is my favorite. d Pseudo-random, by definition, is not random but statistically cannot be distinguished from random. A pseudo-random number generator that created numbers more evenly distributed than real random numbers would by that very fact reveal itself as non-random and could then be predicted to some extent without knowledge of the algorithm used ot generate the numbers. Thus, the generator would not be pseudo-random. Thus, you are full of crap. QED. I think you will be surprised and your world will be crushed: pseudo random generators are not random generators. They are ofcourse cannot be distinguished, but thats because random generator cannot be identified in a finite sample. But what we were talking about were the random generators of our computers. And if you ever tried one of them (as a programmer you should have, i know i did), they produce a very even distribution, even in low size sample. Real random CAN produce it as well, but it tends not to. So whats with the crap and all the crunchertalk? You demonstrate nothing, just throw in stuff everyone knows and which are irrelevant to the topic. I was pointing out that your comment on pseudorandom algorithms was logically contradictory, because a pseudorandom generator that could be shown to have a more even distribution of values than a truly random source of numbers would by definition not be pseudorandom. This demonstrates that you either don't understand the words that you are using, or you're intentionally saying things that aren't true. Your comment about pseudorandom behavior producing a very even distribution, "even in a low size sample," is a perfect example of the silliness of this entire thread, which probably only hasn't been closed yet because the mods were enjoying the TSL. No statistical observation based on a low sample size has any significance.
Once again. Read what i wrote and think again. Also, sit down and try flipping a coin and generating random 1/2-1/2 chances with your favourite compiler's random generator. Or if its not enough for a show, try with a d20 die. I know what im talking about, i know that random cannot be proved to be random, and that pseudo random generators are KNOWN to NOT be random (thats why we call them pseudo, they just look like one), if you know the seed you can tell the whole series, but thats not the point. The point is, usually they generate more even distribution. If you dont beleive me, try it. If you dont try it, hold back your "arguments".
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I'm shocked by how few people understand stats (for example, neglecting the face that players can veto certain maps favored by certain races), but either way, I'm posting my numbers:
ZvZ: 26
ZvT 17
ZvP: 26
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Once again. Read what i wrote and think again. Also, sit down and try flipping a coin and generating random 1/2-1/2 chances with your favourite compiler's random generator. Or if its not enough for a show, try with a d20 die. I know what im talking about, i know that random cannot be proved to be random, and that pseudo random generators are KNOWN to NOT be random (thats why we call them pseudo, they just look like one), if you know the seed you can tell the whole series, but thats not the point. The point is, usually they generate more even distribution. If you dont beleive me, try it. If you dont try it, hold back your "arguments".
That is true for the most common pseudorandom generators, but it isn't a fundamental property of them. One could easily write a pseudorandom generator that is less even than true randomness.
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PVPVPVPVPVPVPVPVPVPVPVP all day long x]
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question: should it really be 33% ? becuase i think that if u were up against one race all the time it would be 33% but because the race uof ur opponent differs from game to game it should be 11% or am i wrong? just had that thought popping up in my head
the race u spawn as also differs (another 33% chance)
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No, that's not right. It's 33% for each race because there are three races each with the same probability to be encountered.
Even if the race of your opponent had to change after each game, which it does not, the chance to see each race would still be 33%, because you still have only three races and all three are equally likely.
You should try and think about it in more detail.
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First of all the amount of games played is not high enough to have a statistical relevance. Even if the base would be high enough for a single person you would most likely NOT see a 33% distribution. Only the average number of games from a lot of persons could in theory show a 33% distribution.
However this takes into account the assumption that the all three races are per se distributed evenly among all players (33% Toss, 33% Terran and 33% Zerg) which is definately not the case. You are going to probably see more terran than zerg players out there (pure assumption) - since Terran relates more to humans than the other two races.
In addition the race distribution will certainly differ even among the different leagues from copper to master.
Despite your individual encounter of a lot of mirrors you can not extrapolate from the current amount of information on how the random-matchmaking works in terms of providing you mirror oponents.
I would say that's pure statistical luck. :-)
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On April 11 2011 12:09 Icx wrote:
Race: Zerg
PLEASE read the OP, people!
He is looking for RANDOM players playing vs other RANDOM players.
Race distribution -> superfluous.
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I know the OP is taking about random, but I've been looking at my sc2gears stats for ladder, and this DOES NOT include my 9 in a row tvt ladder streak a few days ago.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/sRyXl.jpg)
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Over 500 games and the stats are a little high but within tolerances. I'd like to get the number over 1,000 games before I would feel that I would have a sample size where I could draw some real results. Thanks for everyone's help.
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Why do people keep posting when they play one race? If you play ONLY P, T, or Z, the amount of mirrors you get should be the same as the proportion of users of that race at your level.
However, all random players should have a roughly 1/3 rate of mirrors (TOTAL) because it only matters what race you roll. From the statistics that RANDOM players have posted (such as myself) there is no evidence for anything weird.
This thread needs to be closed.
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On April 11 2011 19:46 Jinsho wrote:
No, that's not right. It's 33% for each race because there are three races each with the same probability to be encountered.
Even if the race of your opponent had to change after each game, which it does not, the chance to see each race would still be 33%, because you still have only three races and all three are equally likely.
You should try and think about it in more detail.
^^ What this guy said.
Also it doesn't matter if every single person plays Toss... random is still gonna get mirrors 33% of the time. Sometimes you go to Vegas, bet on black every spin, and walk out a millionaire. It happens.
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Just for kicks, I took a random number generator and ran it for 500 numbers, choosing only between 1 through 3 each time. Call number 1 the situation in which you land a mirror, 2 and 3 the situations in which you do not. The results:
Trial 1:
144 ones
184 twos
172 threes
28.8% chance of hitting 1/random
Trial 2:
133 ones
187 twos
180 threes
26.6% chance of hitting 1/random
Trial 3:
161 ones
186 twos
153 threes
32.2% chance of hitting 1/random
Trial 4:
180 ones
137 twos
183 threes
36% chance of hitting 1/random
Trial 5:
183 ones
144 twos
173 threes
36.6% chance of hitting 1/random
So...if you're getting stats of 37.5% out of a sample size of roughly 500, I don't think anything is abnormal. Twice the number generator gave me a result that is +3% of the expected 33%, once at -4.2, and once at -6.4, which is bigger than the difference you see in the stats that were provided to you.
I don't think you're going to find anything abnormal.
EDIT: Also, since the choice of "1" as the situation in which you land a mirror was completely arbitrary, had I chosen 2, you would've ended up with a result in trial 2 that gives you a 37.4% chance of a mirror, and one in trial 3 that gives you 37.2%
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/EoFPF.png)
