EPTZvZ: 26
ZvT 17
ZvP: 26
Random Mirror Match Up Percentages Off - Page 9
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justdweezil
United States186 Posts
ZvZ: 26 ZvT 17 ZvP: 26 | ||
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Soleron
United Kingdom1324 Posts
Once again. Read what i wrote and think again. Also, sit down and try flipping a coin and generating random 1/2-1/2 chances with your favourite compiler's random generator. Or if its not enough for a show, try with a d20 die. I know what im talking about, i know that random cannot be proved to be random, and that pseudo random generators are KNOWN to NOT be random (thats why we call them pseudo, they just look like one), if you know the seed you can tell the whole series, but thats not the point. The point is, usually they generate more even distribution. If you dont beleive me, try it. If you dont try it, hold back your "arguments". That is true for the most common pseudorandom generators, but it isn't a fundamental property of them. One could easily write a pseudorandom generator that is less even than true randomness. | ||
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Dezire
Netherlands640 Posts
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Pred8oar
Germany281 Posts
 the race u spawn as also differs (another 33% chance) | ||
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Jinsho
United Kingdom3101 Posts
Even if the race of your opponent had to change after each game, which it does not, the chance to see each race would still be 33%, because you still have only three races and all three are equally likely. You should try and think about it in more detail. | ||
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Gigaschatten
Germany79 Posts
However this takes into account the assumption that the all three races are per se distributed evenly among all players (33% Toss, 33% Terran and 33% Zerg) which is definately not the case. You are going to probably see more terran than zerg players out there (pure assumption) - since Terran relates more to humans than the other two races. In addition the race distribution will certainly differ even among the different leagues from copper to master. Despite your individual encounter of a lot of mirrors you can not extrapolate from the current amount of information on how the random-matchmaking works in terms of providing you mirror oponents. I would say that's pure statistical luck. :-) | ||
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SeaSwift
Scotland4486 Posts
On April 11 2011 12:09 Icx wrote: Race: Zerg PLEASE read the OP, people! He is looking for RANDOM players playing vs other RANDOM players. Race distribution -> superfluous. | ||
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DooMDash
United States1015 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/sRyXl.jpg) | ||
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NinjaDrone
United States97 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
However, all random players should have a roughly 1/3 rate of mirrors (TOTAL) because it only matters what race you roll. From the statistics that RANDOM players have posted (such as myself) there is no evidence for anything weird. This thread needs to be closed. | ||
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Neo.NEt
United States785 Posts
On April 11 2011 19:46 Jinsho wrote: No, that's not right. It's 33% for each race because there are three races each with the same probability to be encountered. Even if the race of your opponent had to change after each game, which it does not, the chance to see each race would still be 33%, because you still have only three races and all three are equally likely. You should try and think about it in more detail. ^^ What this guy said. Also it doesn't matter if every single person plays Toss... random is still gonna get mirrors 33% of the time. Sometimes you go to Vegas, bet on black every spin, and walk out a millionaire. It happens. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Trial 1: 144 ones 184 twos 172 threes 28.8% chance of hitting 1/random Trial 2: 133 ones 187 twos 180 threes 26.6% chance of hitting 1/random Trial 3: 161 ones 186 twos 153 threes 32.2% chance of hitting 1/random Trial 4: 180 ones 137 twos 183 threes 36% chance of hitting 1/random Trial 5: 183 ones 144 twos 173 threes 36.6% chance of hitting 1/random So...if you're getting stats of 37.5% out of a sample size of roughly 500, I don't think anything is abnormal. Twice the number generator gave me a result that is +3% of the expected 33%, once at -4.2, and once at -6.4, which is bigger than the difference you see in the stats that were provided to you. I don't think you're going to find anything abnormal. EDIT: Also, since the choice of "1" as the situation in which you land a mirror was completely arbitrary, had I chosen 2, you would've ended up with a result in trial 2 that gives you a 37.4% chance of a mirror, and one in trial 3 that gives you 37.2% | ||
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