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MLG Format Explanation - Page 15

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
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MangoTango
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States3670 Posts
March 31 2011 14:34 GMT
#281
This...is crazy. And it's unreal how good it is to win your group. :O
"One fish, two fish, red fish, BLUE TANK!" - Artosis
Sebast1aan
Profile Joined March 2011
Belgium163 Posts
March 31 2011 15:00 GMT
#282
How many matches will be played during the whole event?
Gnax
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden490 Posts
March 31 2011 15:06 GMT
#283
On April 01 2011 00:00 Sebast1aan wrote:
How many matches will be played during the whole event?


over 9000.
Workforce
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden70 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 15:18:35
March 31 2011 15:12 GMT
#284
On February 27 2011 15:13 motbob wrote:

And here's the image that ties it all together!

[image loading]
click the image for a larger version



I wonder why everything has to be double elimination? The good thing about the format is that good players dont get knocked out early, but in the late rounds i feel like things start to break down. You are more or less guaranteed to have players playing against each other twice etc. I also feel that double elimination removes a lot of the tension/excitement from the winners bracket as there is no threat of being eliminated in those games.

I think MLG:s format would be GREATLY improved if the championship bracket was single elimination. Make it an 8 player bracket with the 4 players from pool play and 4 players from the open loser's bracket (G, H, I, J in the image). This would allow for some very exciting games at the end of the tournament, while still giving players a second chance if they lose a series early on.

edit: typo
Mr Mauve
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom386 Posts
March 31 2011 16:08 GMT
#285
On March 31 2011 13:25 Antedelerium wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2011 11:37 Orome wrote:
Only just stumbled on this. Holy cow that's a bad format. I get that they want to have interesting matches from the start, but wow. Now, it's 4am and I hope to god I haven't messed my numbers up, but this is what I got from doing a little late-night math, assuming all players are 50/50 vs. each other. Should be correct.

The probability that one of the 16 seeded players will win the tournament: 79.375%
The probability that someone coming from the open qualifiers will win the tournament: 20.625%
The probability for one seeded player to win the tournament: 4.96%
The probability for one open qualifier player to win the tournament (if 256 qualifiers): 0.08%

For any individual player, the probability to win is 62 times higher if you're seeded than if you're playing the open qualifier. This isn't even taking into account fatigue which is going to affect the qualifiers hugely and the championship match format (where the player coming from the winner's bracket only needs to win one Bo3, which skew the results in the seeded players' favour even more).

Now, obviously 4 qualifiers will get into pool play, which will also give them a 4.96% shot (although getting there is extremely unlikely for any given player). If we therefore count the chances of winning of all the players in pool play together, we get 20x4.96%=99.2%. Now where did those 0.8% go? Well, that's the combined chance of all the players that don't make pool play (ie. drop any series during the qualifiers in a 256 man bracket) to win this tournament.

Seriously MLG?


True, but that's assuming that each Bo3 is like a 50-50 coin flip. Skill plays a lot into it. Yes, it sucks for people in the open qualifier due to the sheer number of matches they have to play, but do well, get some points, and do better in the next round. That's how it goes. It's a season and this is just one event.

Arguments aside, thanks for this. I feel like actually understand the whole format for the first time. Awesome graphic too for lazy people who didn't end up reading the whole thing.


It's also assuming that the open bracket won't be seeded.

Here are some rules!

Some rules

Chaps: The seeding doesn't stop at 16. At least, that's the impression I get from the bit in the rules which says "Players will be seeded 1-256 for all Open Brackets".

So if iNkA shows up (I believe he's the highest-ranked attendee who's not in the top 16), he should be playing John Q. Nobodies for the first few rounds (admittedly there's a chance he'll be paired with a highly-skilled debutant) and he will not meet e.g. LZGamer (next highest ranked attendee outside the top 16) or Avilo (next next).

Also, 2010 ranking points will cease to matter after this first competition (again, that's the impression I get from the bit in the rules which says "After the Dallas Competition, 2011 Starcraft 2 Pro Circuit Rank Points will replace all 2010 Starcraft 2 Pro Circuit Rank Points"). There will be lots of pressure on players finishing 4th and 5th in pool play to win enough games to make it back into the top 16 (quite apart from wanting to win the event!).

Yes, there's a big jump in the likelihood of winning from 16th seed to 17th seed, but 17-272 are not all created equal, and the mechanism for advancement is there.

Apologies if I've misread any rules. I'm a fan, not an MLG employee.

Finally: Thank you very very much, that is indeed a superb graphic.
Hello! How are you today?
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 16:28:23
March 31 2011 16:16 GMT
#286
Open bracket will be entertaining this time around as there are so many high level debut appearances, and thus unseeded players, and Huk as the #1 seed will likely have to play against at least some of them before the bracket finishes. Thus it's quite possible he might have to, for instance, play PvP against Naniwa in open bracket RO128 or 64. Being the highest seeded player in open bracket is actually detrimental this time around.
FliedLice
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Germany7494 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 16:20:04
March 31 2011 16:19 GMT
#287
why doesn't TL do MLGs job again and add the dates/times to the TL calendar?

or aren't they announced yet?
Kevmeister @ Dota2
Eternalmisfit
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States643 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-31 16:49:47
March 31 2011 16:42 GMT
#288
On March 31 2011 11:37 Orome wrote:
Only just stumbled on this. Holy cow that's a bad format. I get that they want to have interesting matches from the start, but wow. Now, it's 4am and I hope to god I haven't messed my numbers up, but this is what I got from doing a little late-night math, assuming all players are 50/50 vs. each other. Should be correct.

The probability that one of the 16 seeded players will win the tournament: 79.375%
The probability that someone coming from the open qualifiers will win the tournament: 20.625%
The probability for one seeded player to win the tournament: 4.96%
The probability for one open qualifier player to win the tournament (if 256 qualifiers): 0.08%

For any individual player, the probability to win is 62 times higher if you're seeded than if you're playing the open qualifier. This isn't even taking into account fatigue which is going to affect the qualifiers hugely and the championship match format (where the player coming from the winner's bracket only needs to win one Bo3, which skew the results in the seeded players' favour even more).

Now, obviously 4 qualifiers will get into pool play, which will also give them a 4.96% shot (although getting there is extremely unlikely for any given player). If we therefore count the chances of winning of all the players in pool play together, we get 20x4.96%=99.2%. Now where did those 0.8% go? Well, that's the combined chance of all the players that don't make pool play (ie. drop any series during the qualifiers in a 256 man bracket) to win this tournament.

Seriously MLG?


I can still somewhat buy it if the odds against an open bracket player ended at this point.

If you see the MLG schedule, even if someone comes from the open bracket undefeated and enters the pool play, that player then needs to run a gauntlet of games with pool play players on Saturday. According to the schedule, the 4 open bracket 'winners' play 4 Bo3's back to back from 5:00 pm to 10:00 pm on Saturday while the seeded players only have to play 1 Bo3 that day.

I can't see how this is fair even if I can buy the rest of the format.

Edit:
The point I am trying to make is that even if the player coming from the open bracket might have a 50-50 coin flip chance of taking a game of the seeder, the actual odds that day will be much lower due to the gauntlet of games he will have to play. Also, it pretty much allows the seeded player to see nearly the entirety of strategies/builds a player from the open bracket might have prepared due to the sheer number of games they have to play.
oGm`REM
Profile Joined March 2011
United States870 Posts
March 31 2011 18:07 GMT
#289
On March 31 2011 20:48 UnholyRai wrote:
This format favours the top 16 players far too much.

I honestly think it's the best way to do it, otherwise people who aren't top tier will get bracket screwed and get knocked out of the Tournament quicker this way.
It's how they do it with top 16 seeded pros in Halo, Call of Duty and Gears of War.
oriGinal Mixers '99 - www.smiteam.net
hugman
Profile Joined June 2009
Sweden4644 Posts
March 31 2011 18:16 GMT
#290
On April 01 2011 03:07 oGm`REM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2011 20:48 UnholyRai wrote:
This format favours the top 16 players far too much.

I honestly think it's the best way to do it, otherwise people who aren't top tier will get bracket screwed and get knocked out of the Tournament quicker this way.
It's how they do it with top 16 seeded pros in Halo, Call of Duty and Gears of War.

That's how they do it in Halo, you heard it here first last
TestSubject893
Profile Joined September 2009
United States774 Posts
March 31 2011 18:39 GMT
#291
On April 01 2011 03:07 oGm`REM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2011 20:48 UnholyRai wrote:
This format favours the top 16 players far too much.

I honestly think it's the best way to do it, otherwise people who aren't top tier will get bracket screwed and get knocked out of the Tournament quicker this way.
It's how they do it with top 16 seeded pros in Halo, Call of Duty and Gears of War.


I don't disagree with the fact that highly seeded players should get byes, but the fact that the seeds are based only on results of tournaments with this format means that it will be very very hard to lose your spot in the top 16 once you are there.

Consider this situation: Every time a top 16 seed plays an open bracket player they lose. In this situation, at least 8 of the top 16 seeds will remain in the top 16. Moreover, no matter what the results are, it is impossible for more than 8 open bracket players to finish ahead of any of the top 16 seeds.
KiLL_ORdeR
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States1518 Posts
March 31 2011 18:51 GMT
#292
Do players have the option of opting out of consolation matches?

I would imagine it would be an attractive alternative to just take a lower placement than to play a Bo3 after you've play anywhere from 15-20 over the course of three days.
In order to move forward, we must rid ourselves of that which holds us back. Check out my stream and give me tips! twitch.tv/intotheskyy
Skaff
Profile Joined February 2010
United States240 Posts
March 31 2011 19:25 GMT
#293
On April 01 2011 03:39 TestSubject893 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2011 03:07 oGm`REM wrote:
On March 31 2011 20:48 UnholyRai wrote:
This format favours the top 16 players far too much.

I honestly think it's the best way to do it, otherwise people who aren't top tier will get bracket screwed and get knocked out of the Tournament quicker this way.
It's how they do it with top 16 seeded pros in Halo, Call of Duty and Gears of War.


I don't disagree with the fact that highly seeded players should get byes, but the fact that the seeds are based only on results of tournaments with this format means that it will be very very hard to lose your spot in the top 16 once you are there.

Consider this situation: Every time a top 16 seed plays an open bracket player they lose. In this situation, at least 8 of the top 16 seeds will remain in the top 16. Moreover, no matter what the results are, it is impossible for more than 8 open bracket players to finish ahead of any of the top 16 seeds.


I was thinking the same thing. In addition, I still find the loser bracket under the pool play as a bit redundant and giving a lot of potential outs. Groups of 5 and the 5th place position can still move on? The groups of death instantly become a bit less interesting (yay we all advance). The design just seems to defeat the purpose of pool play.
Better than IdrA
Profile Joined March 2011
Ukraine50 Posts
March 31 2011 19:37 GMT
#294
Better and much more fair than code A and code S as far as I'm concerned.
papaz
Profile Joined December 2009
Sweden4149 Posts
March 31 2011 20:02 GMT
#295
wow, my head exploded clicking on the image. These tournament formats gets more and more complicated.
Blast
Profile Joined May 2010
26 Posts
March 31 2011 20:58 GMT
#296
Makes perfect sense now, thank you.
AmiPolizeiFunk
Profile Joined May 2010
Germany804 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-01 00:16:25
April 01 2011 00:09 GMT
#297
I wonder if this kind of travesty has been committed on a "double-elimination format" in any other sport or competition, including billiards or chess or whatever else. This practically insures that new faces have no chance. They get to dump their money in the pot ($70 $80 each? really?), with the odds completely stacked against them. The whole "pool play" section appears to be a string of meaningless show-matches. The organizers must think that these will please the fans, but an educated fan of the game (and competition in general) won't give a shit about the pool play, and will keep his or her eye on the "Championship Loser's Bracket". What a LOL name in and of itself! Sadly, I'm sure it will be the Pool Play that gets all the broadcast time.

I also find it funny that it's possible for one of these guys (5th-16th) from the open bracket to win the entire tournament without partaking in the "pool play" section at all. Just seems ridiculous. I hope they have some Emergency Services employees on hand to hook these players (suckers?) up to inter-venous injections to keep them alive through this nightmare.
Dingobloo
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Australia1903 Posts
April 01 2011 00:18 GMT
#298
On April 01 2011 00:12 Workforce wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2011 15:13 motbob wrote:

And here's the image that ties it all together!

[image loading]
click the image for a larger version



I wonder why everything has to be double elimination? The good thing about the format is that good players dont get knocked out early, but in the late rounds i feel like things start to break down. You are more or less guaranteed to have players playing against each other twice etc. I also feel that double elimination removes a lot of the tension/excitement from the winners bracket as there is no threat of being eliminated in those games.

I think MLG:s format would be GREATLY improved if the championship bracket was single elimination. Make it an 8 player bracket with the 4 players from pool play and 4 players from the open loser's bracket (G, H, I, J in the image). This would allow for some very exciting games at the end of the tournament, while still giving players a second chance if they lose a series early on.

edit: typo


The championship bracket basically IS single elimination for all but 4 people.
zaii
Profile Joined October 2010
Guam2611 Posts
April 01 2011 00:22 GMT
#299
On April 01 2011 09:18 Dingobloo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2011 00:12 Workforce wrote:
On February 27 2011 15:13 motbob wrote:

And here's the image that ties it all together!

[image loading]
click the image for a larger version



I wonder why everything has to be double elimination? The good thing about the format is that good players dont get knocked out early, but in the late rounds i feel like things start to break down. You are more or less guaranteed to have players playing against each other twice etc. I also feel that double elimination removes a lot of the tension/excitement from the winners bracket as there is no threat of being eliminated in those games.

I think MLG:s format would be GREATLY improved if the championship bracket was single elimination. Make it an 8 player bracket with the 4 players from pool play and 4 players from the open loser's bracket (G, H, I, J in the image). This would allow for some very exciting games at the end of the tournament, while still giving players a second chance if they lose a series early on.

edit: typo


The championship bracket basically IS single elimination for all but 4 people.


Still a double elimination bracket.
FinestHour
Profile Joined August 2010
United States18466 Posts
April 01 2011 05:59 GMT
#300
This really is very informative. Why such complex style for the competition?
thug life.                                                       MVP/ex-
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