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Trying to make sense of the stats - Page 3

Forum Index > SC2 General
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iEchoic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1776 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-19 03:10:33
January 19 2011 03:09 GMT
#41
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.
vileEchoic -- clanvile.com
5unrise
Profile Joined May 2009
New Zealand646 Posts
January 19 2011 03:15 GMT
#42
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
Show nested quote +
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


Take a look at Master's league, where this distribution matters. You will see that the zerg numbers are only slightly behind the other races. If that is the case, and the game is balanced, we'd expect that zerg tourney winners would only be slightly under the 1/3 ratio, which is not the case. Clearly, there is no lack of 'skilled' players playing zerg, yet there is a lack of those who are succeeding. How could anyone deduce anything but imbalance from these statistics is unconvincing to any neutral observer in the very least.
Cambam
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States360 Posts
January 19 2011 03:22 GMT
#43
Cognitive dissonance my friends.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

Quick recap: you feel cognitive dissonance when new information isn't consistent with your current worldview or self-view. You don't like to feel dissonance so you try to either change your view or ignore the new information.

In this case: Terran and Protoss players think they're good and deserve all their wins against zerg. These data cast doubt on that view. This makes T and P players feel dissonance. A few might admit that zerg is UP, but most will ignore the data and just think "Man, Zerg sure QQ a lot."
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-19 03:39:16
January 19 2011 03:30 GMT
#44
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
Show nested quote +
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


I'm sorry; by played I meant 'played competently'. You're right that if you just add up everyone without a care, zerg aren't as popular. It's trivial to see that's not relevent though, and I figured you saw that obviously wasn't important as well.

And even on a global level, in the top leagues there's hardly a difference. Very close to 30%.
Cambam
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States360 Posts
January 19 2011 03:33 GMT
#45
Also, I redid the analysis by taking out the 5 zerg, because their vZ win rate isn't relevant, and I also took out Genius and TOP because they both had 100% vZ win rates but had only played 2 and 1 games respectively against Z on their TLPD, so those 100%s were getting way too much weight. However, the results are still worrying:

Overall winrate = 59.2%
*vZ winrate = 69.2%
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
January 19 2011 03:35 GMT
#46
Why isn't the ZvZ win rate relevent? It shows (for whatever reason) that they have a much stronger ZvZ than they do ZvP and ZvT.
dogabutila
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States1437 Posts
January 19 2011 03:43 GMT
#47
Because zvz global winrate will always be 50%
Baller Fanclub || CheAse Fanclub || Scarlett Fanclub || LJD FIGHTING!
iEchoic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1776 Posts
January 19 2011 03:44 GMT
#48
On January 19 2011 12:30 Dragar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


I'm sorry; by played I meant 'played competently'. You're right that if you just add up everyone without a care, zerg aren't as popular. I don't see how that's relevent though, and I figured you didn't think it important either.

And even on a global level, in the top leagues there's hardly a difference. Very close to 30%.


It shows that the ratio of zerg players who will enter master's league is higher than the ratio of players of other races who will enter master's league. In order to equal out the lower leagues you'd have to add enough zerg players that they'd be way over-represented in Master's. That's why the ratio of lower leagues is important as well.
vileEchoic -- clanvile.com
dogabutila
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States1437 Posts
January 19 2011 03:52 GMT
#49
Pretty much the only thing that the statistics clearly show are that less people play zerg globally, zerg numbers among serious players is about where expected, and that less 'bad' players play zerg.

Is it because zerg is more difficult to play that they decide not to play it? or because people inherently just like zerg less (because they are the badguys in the campaign maybe?)

Who knows, the numbers can only tell you what (and only then sometimes.) They can never really tell you 'why'
Baller Fanclub || CheAse Fanclub || Scarlett Fanclub || LJD FIGHTING!
Galaxy77
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Hong Kong256 Posts
January 19 2011 03:52 GMT
#50
You cant compare one tourneys statistics to another if the way the map pool is decided is different. Its pretty much a known fact that some maps are heavily biased towards some races than others. Therefore in tournaments where the tournament organisers choose the map pool you will get considerably different results from ones where players veto / choose.
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-19 03:56:33
January 19 2011 03:54 GMT
#51
On January 19 2011 12:44 iEchoic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2011 12:30 Dragar wrote:
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


I'm sorry; by played I meant 'played competently'. You're right that if you just add up everyone without a care, zerg aren't as popular. I don't see how that's relevent though, and I figured you didn't think it important either.

And even on a global level, in the top leagues there's hardly a difference. Very close to 30%.


It shows that the ratio of zerg players who will enter master's league is higher than the ratio of players of other races who will enter master's league. In order to equal out the lower leagues you'd have to add enough zerg players that they'd be way over-represented in Master's. That's why the ratio of lower leagues is important as well.


Could you explain that another way? I'm totally not following what you just said. The first sentence makes sense (and is true for diamond league as well) but the rest I don't understand at all.

The only two reasons I can imagine the higher leagues having far more Z representation in the higher than the lower leagues, is that Zerg is grossly overpowered at diamond or higher skill levels, or that there are a lot more people who play Terran and Protoss in a very casual fashion, while if someone wants to play zerg, they'll play enough to learn (and at the higher skill levels, it's fairly balanced).

We can test that last idea, not just assume it. The average number of games played by a zerg should be higher than the average Terran or Protoss, over all leagues. I wonder if SC2 ranks has that information?
iEchoic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1776 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-19 04:00:08
January 19 2011 03:59 GMT
#52
On January 19 2011 12:54 Dragar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2011 12:44 iEchoic wrote:
On January 19 2011 12:30 Dragar wrote:
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


I'm sorry; by played I meant 'played competently'. You're right that if you just add up everyone without a care, zerg aren't as popular. I don't see how that's relevent though, and I figured you didn't think it important either.

And even on a global level, in the top leagues there's hardly a difference. Very close to 30%.


It shows that the ratio of zerg players who will enter master's league is higher than the ratio of players of other races who will enter master's league. In order to equal out the lower leagues you'd have to add enough zerg players that they'd be way over-represented in Master's. That's why the ratio of lower leagues is important as well.


Could you explain that another way? I'm totally not following what you just said. The first sentence makes sense (and is true for diamond league as well) but the rest I don't understand at all.

The only two reasons I can imagine the higher leagues having far more Z representation in the higher than the lower leagues, is that Zerg is grossly overpowered at diamond or higher skill levels, or that there are a lot more people who play Terran and Protoss in a very casual fashion, while if someone wants to play zerg, they'll play enough to learn (and at the higher skill levels, it's fairly balanced).

We can test that last idea, not just assume it. The average number of games played by a zerg should be higher than the average Terran or Protoss, over all leagues. I wonder if SC2 ranks has that information?


a) Why do more zergs end up in master's league by percentage than other races?

b) If the answer to your question relates to the skill level of the players playing those races (i.e. zerg players are more skilled), why can't you apply that same answer to results from tournaments (i.e., terran/protoss is more skilled)? Why does that answer only apply when Zerg does well?
vileEchoic -- clanvile.com
5unrise
Profile Joined May 2009
New Zealand646 Posts
January 19 2011 03:59 GMT
#53
On January 19 2011 12:44 iEchoic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2011 12:30 Dragar wrote:
On January 19 2011 12:09 iEchoic wrote:
But the claim that Zerg is played less than Terran and Protoss is, in America and EU, false


http://sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all

What are you talking about? Zerg is the least-played in every single league. What I said was 100% correct. I don't care to argue how much less it is or in what region or what league or blah blah blah. What I said wasn't false.


I'm sorry; by played I meant 'played competently'. You're right that if you just add up everyone without a care, zerg aren't as popular. I don't see how that's relevent though, and I figured you didn't think it important either.

And even on a global level, in the top leagues there's hardly a difference. Very close to 30%.


It shows that the ratio of zerg players who will enter master's league is higher than the ratio of players of other races who will enter master's league. In order to equal out the lower leagues you'd have to add enough zerg players that they'd be way over-represented in Master's. That's why the ratio of lower leagues is important as well.


Why do you need to "equal out the ratio of players in the lower leagues"? Taking into account the race choices of bronze and silver league players, who are just learning the game, contributes nothing to why zerg isn't doing so well at the top level, in spite of the fact that there is no shortage of good players playing zerg at that level. Many players switch races when they are through with learning the game, and some players switch to zerg after they feel like they have a deeper understanding of the other races. The fact remains:

1. At Master's league racial representation are approximately equal, albeit slightly less for zerg.
2. Zerg wins significantly less than their racial representation in tournaments.
3. Adding in numbers from any league other than Masters only distort this data.

It sounds like you are desperately trying to find ways to explain away these facts using tedious arguments that are not convincing at all. My question to you is: Why bother?
iEchoic
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States1776 Posts
January 19 2011 04:02 GMT
#54
^^^

This is the essence of your argument:

- When zerg does disproportionately well (Zerg players reach master at a higher ratio than other races, Zerg winning 2/3 GSLs), it is because the people playing Zerg have more skill
- When zerg does disproportionately badly, it is because of imbalance, not because the T/P players have more skill

It's a really annoying and common double-standard.
vileEchoic -- clanvile.com
UniversalSnip
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
9871 Posts
January 19 2011 04:03 GMT
#55
On January 19 2011 09:06 haffy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2011 08:57 Silidons wrote:
but yet zerg has won 2 GSL's, which if you wanted to win any tournament, you would want to win that one.

sorry but zerg UP isn't going to work, GSL has the best players in the world.


Yeah well done. When presented with a larger number of statistics you chose to use a smaller sample to discredit them. When using numbers you always use the larger sample size because it is less likely to be effected by variance.


That's naive logic, and not something an actual statistician would say. You use the larger sample size if both sources of data are of the same quality and relevance... if they aren't you have a legitimate debate over which to use, if any.
"How fucking dare you defile the sanctity of DotA with your fucking casual plebian terminology? May the curse of Gaben and Volvo be upon you. le filthy casual."
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-19 04:05:36
January 19 2011 04:04 GMT
#56
On January 19 2011 12:59 iEchoic wrote:
a) Why do more zergs end up in master's league by percentage than other races?

b) If the answer to your question relates to the skill level of the players playing those races (i.e. zerg players are more skilled), why can't you apply that same answer to results from tournaments (i.e., terran/protoss is more skilled)? Why does that answer only apply when Zerg does well?


I suspect it's because if someone plays Terran, they are more likely to play very few games. Same with Protoss. It's not that Terran's are generally better, it's just that there's a lot of people who don't compete at competent levels at all. These all appear in the platinum and lower levels of play.

I'm going to try and compute the numbers to test this, based on the achivements panel.


We could indeed apply the same to tournaments. It could just be that if someone plays Zerg, they are less likely to enter tournaments.

IdrA
Profile Blog Joined July 2004
United States11541 Posts
January 19 2011 04:11 GMT
#57
On January 19 2011 13:02 iEchoic wrote:
^^^

This is the essence of your argument:

- When zerg does disproportionately well (Zerg players reach master at a higher ratio than other races, Zerg winning 2/3 GSLs), it is because the people playing Zerg have more skill
- When zerg does disproportionately badly, it is because of imbalance, not because the T/P players have more skill

It's a really annoying and common double-standard.

its not like this is some theoretical situation
watch the games from the 2 gsl's zergs won. fd was head and shoulders above all his opponents, still should have lost to top and still felt the need to allin inca. he was way better than everyone, he got a relatively easy draw, and he got lucky a number of times on top of it all.
nestea got 2 zvz's in ro16 and 8, not a comment on balance, and then he held off a series of retarded cheeses from boxer and mk. and has since proven hes a really good player who has a special knack for holding off cheesy stuff. not only was he better than his opponents, he won games that werent very meaningful at all in terms of balance, poorly executed undeveloped cheeses.

zerg has never done proportionately well on the whole, besides qualifications or season 3 where every z dropped out in the first 2 rounds anyway. its always been a very very few z's having success and you can watch the games, they quite clearly were more skilled than their competition.
http://www.splitreason.com/product/1152 release the gracken tshirt now available
Dragar
Profile Joined October 2010
United Kingdom971 Posts
January 19 2011 04:19 GMT
#58
Unfortunately the achievements listing seem to be only for a small number of players on sc2 ranks. So unless someone can find someway to query the database to ask for the average number of games played by Terran, Protoss and Zerg players, it will have to wait until another time to answer...
dcberkeley
Profile Joined July 2009
Canada844 Posts
January 19 2011 04:28 GMT
#59
On January 19 2011 12:22 Cambam wrote:
Cognitive dissonance my friends.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

Quick recap: you feel cognitive dissonance when new information isn't consistent with your current worldview or self-view. You don't like to feel dissonance so you try to either change your view or ignore the new information.

In this case: Terran and Protoss players think they're good and deserve all their wins against zerg. These data cast doubt on that view. This makes T and P players feel dissonance. A few might admit that zerg is UP, but most will ignore the data and just think "Man, Zerg sure QQ a lot."

The irony in this post is delicious.
Moktira is da bomb
5unrise
Profile Joined May 2009
New Zealand646 Posts
January 19 2011 04:31 GMT
#60
On January 19 2011 13:02 iEchoic wrote:
^^^

This is the essence of your argument:

- When zerg does disproportionately well (Zerg players reach master at a higher ratio than other races, Zerg winning 2/3 GSLs), it is because the people playing Zerg have more skill
- When zerg does disproportionately badly, it is because of imbalance, not because the T/P players have more skill

It's a really annoying and common double-standard.


When zerg wins, I can guess all the possible candidate zergs on the five fingers of my left hand. Sen, IdrA, Dimaga, Ret, Haypro and that kind of concludes all reasonable possibilities on the foreign scene. The fact that so few carries the meagre chances of so many is why I believe they are just way more skilled than their opponents. Their history in bw also indicates that, with Ret IdrA and Sen being some of the most dominant foreigners in the sc1 scene for the last 2 years.

When terran or protoss wins, it would often be very different players than the ones who had won before, or somebody who isn't considered as top-notch. You have a whole list of terran and toss winners whose names nobody has even seen before, and this is possible because they win so much more often. I'm not saying that they all win because of imbalance, because they can very well be legitimately good and better than the zergs they were facing. To say that they win so much more often because these players are just superior every time to their zerg opponents, when the win ratios are so lop-sided, however, is just ignorant.
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