|
I have a game where I gained 12 pts and he lost 11.
Since the game was a few days ago, I don't know how to go back and figure out the unspent pool at that time, but I used match history, current unspent pool, and current max bonus pool to figure out the adjusted points = (points - spent pool) before the game. Like this:
adjusted points before game = (current pts - net gain in pts since game - (current max pool - current unspent pool - bonus pts used since game))
My resutls:
Opponent:
adjusted points before game = -64
points change for game = -11
Plat Sargas Indigo
Me:
adjusted points before game = 116
points change for game = +12
Gold Meinhoff Whiskey
This suggests an offset between my (gold) division and his (plat) division of approximately 180 (approximately because it wasn't exactly 12/12 pts). Maybe it's 63*3=189??
Hope it helps.
|
Yeap, it seems that the in-between leagues offset is closer to 50-90 for gold-platinum.
|
Finally got a 12 point win with 12 points loss for my opponent:D
- how many points you had: 3096
- what your remaining bonus pool was: 22
- what division you're in: Gorn Kilo
- what league you're in: Diamond
- your opponent's league: Diamond
- your opponent's division: Shiloh Charlie
- how many points your opponent had: 3178
- what your opponent's remaining bonus pool was: 10
Hope it helps.
|
On March 11 2011 10:26 Grildrak wrote:
Finally got a 12 point win with 12 points loss for my opponent:D
- how many points you had: 3096
- what your remaining bonus pool was: 22
- what division you're in: Gorn Kilo
- what league you're in: Diamond
- your opponent's league: Diamond
- your opponent's division: Shiloh Charlie
- how many points your opponent had: 3178
- what your opponent's remaining bonus pool was: 10
Hope it helps.
Every bit of data helps, thanks for sharing.
3096 + 22 - 3000* = 96+22
3178 + 10 - 3000* = 178+10
70 points difference, 7 points away from the known division offset.
That probably means that if we can get enough of this data for bronze-platinum we can guess pretty accurate every offset.
|
Made a typo on my bonus pool should be 27
So I guess all we get from that right now is that gorn kilo cant be the lowest diamond division?
|
7-5 = 2
Ok, it's a small amount 
|
Well if you assume that there is no offset difference between the leagues of those two players, that the players points = their mmrs and you pretend that the points change was 12/12 not 12/11 (huge list of assumptions) then the difference between the two leagues would be 116-(-64)=180 points. Since the opponent lost 11 instead of 12, meaning his mmr higher than Kyamo's we can assume that the league offset would have to be greater than 180.
I have been using the assumption of 300 points between leagues, and 60 points per point earned. In this case that would put the point difference at 240 points. If Kyamo is on a division tier one higher than his opponent then that would make the difference 300 points.
|
United States12235 Posts
On March 11 2011 11:05 DiDigital wrote:
Well if you assume that there is no offset difference between the leagues of those two players, that the players points = their mmrs and you pretend that the points change was 12/12 not 12/11 (huge list of assumptions) then the difference between the two leagues would be 116-(-64)=180 points. Since the opponent lost 11 instead of 12, meaning his mmr higher than Kyamo's we can assume that the league offset would have to be greater than 180.
I have been using the assumption of 300 points between leagues, and 60 points per point earned. In this case that would put the point difference at 240 points. If Kyamo is on a division tier one higher than his opponent then that would make the difference 300 points.
I don't think it's quite that large. I've been using this spreadsheet to track games listed by you, Mendelfist, Candles, and others who are contributing to this: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AvndKBD-7b4odHVrRXkwZ0FGb1QtS1hlajZQMUpkbmc&hl=en#gid=0
Without knowing the league offsets, the largest I've seen for a +11/-12 game is about 40 points whereas +12/-12 is closer to 20.
|
How are you calculating the difference? The point difference in the 11/12 game in question is 180 points. There are also games with over 200 point difference in 11/11 games. I see a 12/12 at 47 points, 158 points at 13/12, 149 points in an 11/12... I'm just skimming at the top.
I'm in no way convinced its 300, though, but I have an idea that 300 is the difference when you start accounting for divisional offsets.
|
United States12235 Posts
Because there are multiple tiers in Bronze, Gold, Silver, and Plat as well. The 22 game was line 53, the 98 game was line 112 and 121. I had to make sure not to count 12/-12 games that were not of the same league (to take league offsets out of the equation).
|
I'm updating my spreadsheet to 150 point tiers to see how the numbers look.
Most noticeable difference is that it makes MMR's very low. A gold mmr would now be 300 to 450 rather than 600 to 900.
|
Why can't blizzard just release this data? All it does is shroud players' real skill levels and falsely represents some players as "gosu".
|
On March 11 2011 13:09 101toss wrote:
Why can't blizzard just release this data? All it does is shroud players' real skill levels and falsely represents some players as "gosu".
didnt you read the op fully? thats exactly why they dont want you to know. ANYONE can be number 1, atleast of their bronze league, everyone can achieve and be content or happy or whatever.
a question i have for anyone that might know, if you are promoted and then demoted again do you go back to your first devision? i know the op said its not possible to move to 'higher tier' master leagues but if you went down to diamond, and then on a large win streak could you get yourself into a better master league second time around? just curious.
|
United States12235 Posts
On March 11 2011 13:19 turdburgler wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2011 13:09 101toss wrote:
Why can't blizzard just release this data? All it does is shroud players' real skill levels and falsely represents some players as "gosu". didnt you read the op fully? thats exactly why they dont want you to know. ANYONE can be number 1, atleast of their bronze league, everyone can achieve and be content or happy or whatever. a question i have for anyone that might know, if you are promoted and then demoted again do you go back to your first devision? i know the op said its not possible to move to 'higher tier' master leagues but if you went down to diamond, and then on a large win streak could you get yourself into a better master league second time around? just curious.
There are no "better" Master divisions, they're all the same. Now, if you were talking about Diamond divisions, it's definitely possible to start out in a D-rank Diamond division, get promoted to Master, then get demoted to an S-rank Diamond division. We've certainly seen that happen. Didn't you read the OP fully? 
|
United States12235 Posts
SDream had a great idea to follow Master players (since there are no division tiers for Master) and take note of the point differences, so I'm adding that to the spreadsheet as I find them. Hope State doesn't mind me stalking him for a while.
|
Good news everyone: there seems to be some sort of pattern here, the bigger the difference in points between the players, the far away they'll get +12/-12
Examples:
+12/-12: 5 points difference
+13/-11: 15 points difference
+15/-15: 140 points difference
+19/-19: 270 points difference
Bad news everyone: this is less stable than we'd like it to be, so we can't confirm tiers with 1 or 2 data, we still need a lot to remove anomalies and simple give our best guesses.
|
On March 11 2011 16:04 SDream wrote:
Good news everyone: there seems to be some sort of pattern here, the bigger the difference in points between the players, the far away they'll get +12/-12
Examples:
+12/-12: 5 points difference
+13/-11: 15 points difference
+15/-15: 140 points difference
+19/-19: 270 points difference
Bad news everyone: this is less stable than we'd like it to be, so we can't confirm tiers with 1 or 2 data, we still need a lot to remove anomalies and simple give our best guesses.
I wrote about this here
Gold opponents
-10/+14 : -54
-11/+13 : -25
-12/+12 : ?
-13/+11 : +26
Silver opponents
-11/+13 : -151
-12/+12 : ?
-13/+11 : -99
-14/+10 : -66
"-10/+14" means either a 10 point loss or a 14 point win for me. I only included games where my opponents loss (or win) is the same as my win (or loss).
|
I read everypost in this thread since 20 page I think. I've read that one as well :D
The numbers I gave are without league nor division offsets, actual adjusted points difference, we got them from master x master. When we look into platinum x gold we are not sure how much of it is division tiers, league tiers, that's why we looked at masters to have more solid/stable numbers.
The data from +11/-13 or vice-versa is almost as good as +12/-12 or -12/+13 etc, so I think we can amplify our potential data collection without too much worring and start trying to guess tiers and leagues offsets.
My bet right now is division offsets of 60+/- and leagues offsets of 75+/-, it could be 63 for both and I think we can figure that out sooner than I was expecting (I was expecting never...).
|
Warning - wild speculation ahead.
Someone may have already speculated this, but I wonder if the 73 adjusted points given upon promotion corresponds to the size of the MMR cushion required for promotion. So to be promoted to plat, your MMR would need to stabilise at at least 73 more than the cutoff MMR between the two leagues, or 73 more than the cutoff for the division tier you are placed in. As a result, you get the 73 pts when promoted.
Problems with the idea:
What about demotions? They get 73 too.
It assumes the people in a certain division tier should all have positive points after spent bonus pool is subtracted but without adjusting for tier or league (because it assumes 0 is the bottom). This isn't true, some are negative after subtracting spent bonus pool. However, maybe people in the bottom division tier with less than -73 will be demoted. I saw one person in the spreadsheet with -86, maybe this person was placed in a tier other than the lowest tier, so now belongs in a lower tier in the same league. This type of demotion isn't possible, so they stick where they are with -86?
|
I was looking around in my division hoping to find a +12/-12 game vs a master player too get my division offset from. Found this +24/-12 game (played with a huge bonus pool from both players):
- how many points he had: 1916
- what his remaining bonus pool was: 1430
- what division he is in: Gorn Kilo
- what league he is in: Diamond
- opponent's league: Master
- opponent's division: Stukov Rho
- how many points the opponent had: 2528
- the opponent's remaining bonus pool was: 409
- Opponent lost
master leagues modifier is -150 so:
(points + bonus - modifier) - (points + bonus - modifier) ≈ 0
(1916+1430-x) - (2528+409+150) = 0 -> x ≈ 259
That should make Gorn Kilo's modifier: ~259 ≈ D-rank?
(all numbers are now double checked (made a subtraction instead of an addition when calculating the opponent's bonus pool))
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
