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SC2 Ladder Analysis: Division Tiers - Page 15

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
November 23 2010 22:47 GMT
#281
On November 24 2010 05:18 Excalibur_Z wrote:
However, this rating normalization (where lower-skilled divisions get higher modifiers) may make me want to keep playing so I can catch up to you.


I'll ask another question for which you may have an easy answer: to your knowledge, has there been a Blizzard statement suggesting that obfuscating actual skill comparisons across divisions is the reason for having ratings modified in this way?

I'd probably first be looking for other reasons they'd do so. For example, having similar numerical ranges for divisions may help ensure that fixed amounts of bonus points and point wins and losses are equally meaningful across a wide range of skill levels. (for example, if top diamond were in the 3000 point range scaling down to bronze level players being in the 10 or 20 point range, it would be hard to assign meaningful point wins or losses to bronze players, and bonus point accrual would have to be different across low vs. high skill levels.)

In the comments made by Blizzard developers about their SC2 matchmaking at multiple Blizzcons, it's been clear that they aren't too concerned about people being able to compare performance across divisions, but at the same time, it hasn't ever seemed to me that obfuscation is an explicit goal, either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
Boshaft
Profile Joined September 2010
2 Posts
November 23 2010 23:04 GMT
#282
Perhaps this is the reason behind the "stuck at platinum" phenomenon. It will promote you once it has an opening in a division at "your level," which means that not only does it have to wait until an opening comes up, but also for your MMR to stabilize.
Too_MuchZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Finland2818 Posts
November 23 2010 23:47 GMT
#283
On November 24 2010 03:24 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2010 03:13 JDM.s2000 wrote:
On November 23 2010 18:28 Feverus wrote:
On November 23 2010 17:34 JDM.s2000 wrote:
my division Dragoon Pepper isnt even on any of those 57 pages. my friend in my divisoin is 2400+ pts. im currently at 2100+ pts with 55+% win ratio. i dont get how this ranking would work..

what if someone got placed in a bad division, nd then got better nd turned out to be an amazing player over practice..


Then he'd be in the horrible position of allaboutyou, having a displayed rating 200 points higher than his actual one.

How absurdly terrifying! His friends will crucify him immediately.



? i dont understand your point.



but basically to get into MY DIVISION to be ranked in the top 200 division, someone from my division needs to get above 2600 pts right?


If your friend in your division had 2400 points as of 7:30 AM Monday, then all you really know is that your division is not S-Rank, because the lowest rating in the Top 200 was an S-Rank division at 2352 points.

If your division is A-Rank, your friend would have needed 2416 (2353 +63) points to get into this week's Top 200.
If your division is B-Rank, your friend would have needed 2479.
If your division is C-Rank, your friend would have needed 2542.
If your division is D-Rank, your friend would have needed 2605.
If your division is E-Rank, your friend would have needed 2668.

If he had more than 2668 points and still wasn't on this week's Top 200, then that would be evidence of a new tier.


Or division leader hasn't been active enough.

The past few times this has come out, fans have been asking about PsY. I never gave it much thought, but looking at PsY's bnet profile now, it is truly bizarre that he is not included on this list. He is 4th place in his division @2437 points. 5th in his division is makoplux, ranked 137 on this list. 6th in his division is Aoratha, ranked 183. I do not understand how this is possible. Blizz must be using some totally wonky numbers to calculate this or else PsY has somehow gotten lost on Blizzard's #s sheet. I wonder if there are any other anomalies like this. If anyone can find any, they should post here.


And indeed PsY is missing from the list. Of course there is chance that he had just below top 200 line and managed to win after that to get past makoplux and Aoratha.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12237 Posts
November 24 2010 00:03 GMT
#284
On November 24 2010 08:47 Too_MuchZerg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2010 03:24 Excalibur_Z wrote:
On November 24 2010 03:13 JDM.s2000 wrote:
On November 23 2010 18:28 Feverus wrote:
On November 23 2010 17:34 JDM.s2000 wrote:
my division Dragoon Pepper isnt even on any of those 57 pages. my friend in my divisoin is 2400+ pts. im currently at 2100+ pts with 55+% win ratio. i dont get how this ranking would work..

what if someone got placed in a bad division, nd then got better nd turned out to be an amazing player over practice..


Then he'd be in the horrible position of allaboutyou, having a displayed rating 200 points higher than his actual one.

How absurdly terrifying! His friends will crucify him immediately.



? i dont understand your point.



but basically to get into MY DIVISION to be ranked in the top 200 division, someone from my division needs to get above 2600 pts right?


If your friend in your division had 2400 points as of 7:30 AM Monday, then all you really know is that your division is not S-Rank, because the lowest rating in the Top 200 was an S-Rank division at 2352 points.

If your division is A-Rank, your friend would have needed 2416 (2353 +63) points to get into this week's Top 200.
If your division is B-Rank, your friend would have needed 2479.
If your division is C-Rank, your friend would have needed 2542.
If your division is D-Rank, your friend would have needed 2605.
If your division is E-Rank, your friend would have needed 2668.

If he had more than 2668 points and still wasn't on this week's Top 200, then that would be evidence of a new tier.


Or division leader hasn't been active enough.

Show nested quote +
The past few times this has come out, fans have been asking about PsY. I never gave it much thought, but looking at PsY's bnet profile now, it is truly bizarre that he is not included on this list. He is 4th place in his division @2437 points. 5th in his division is makoplux, ranked 137 on this list. 6th in his division is Aoratha, ranked 183. I do not understand how this is possible. Blizz must be using some totally wonky numbers to calculate this or else PsY has somehow gotten lost on Blizzard's #s sheet. I wonder if there are any other anomalies like this. If anyone can find any, they should post here.


And indeed PsY is missing from the list. Of course there is chance that he had just below top 200 line and managed to win after that to get past makoplux and Aoratha.


I think PsY just missed the cutoff. Going back in his 1v1 match history, he's played 4 games since 11/22, and probably rather late in the day unless he plays very early mornings. He went 4-0 and gained 114 points. Subtracting those 114 points from his current rating, he would have had 2323 at the time of the snapshot, putting him below the #200 mark of 2352.
Moderator
GenesisX
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Canada4267 Posts
November 24 2010 00:37 GMT
#285
Sweet my division is B rank
133 221 333 123 111
DavasiaN
Profile Joined July 2008
United States37 Posts
November 24 2010 01:39 GMT
#286
Let me get this straight:

Player A has 2000 MMR and 2500 points in S-Rank (+0) division.
Player B has 2000 MMR and 2815 points in E-Rank (+315) division.
Both players have the same MMR and sigma (uncertainty) factor.

Since the matchmaking system allows players in different division to be matched up, these two players can be matched up, and rightfully so since their MMR and sigma are equal.

The "favored system" works by comparing Player A's 2000 MMR to Player B's displayed 2815 points, so Player A gets an "Opponent Favored" matchup, whereas Player B only gets a "Opponent Slightly Favored" due to the division point handicap. Therefore, Player A, who is in a "better" division gets a handicap based completely on the fact that he is in a different division? This is despite having an identical MMR.

It seems that the "favored system" must take into account this tiered division system when determining points awarded for wins/losses.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12237 Posts
November 24 2010 02:15 GMT
#287
On November 24 2010 10:39 DavasiaN wrote:
Let me get this straight:

Player A has 2000 MMR and 2500 points in S-Rank (+0) division.
Player B has 2000 MMR and 2815 points in E-Rank (+315) division.
Both players have the same MMR and sigma (uncertainty) factor.

Since the matchmaking system allows players in different division to be matched up, these two players can be matched up, and rightfully so since their MMR and sigma are equal.

The "favored system" works by comparing Player A's 2000 MMR to Player B's displayed 2815 points, so Player A gets an "Opponent Favored" matchup, whereas Player B only gets a "Opponent Slightly Favored" due to the division point handicap. Therefore, Player A, who is in a "better" division gets a handicap based completely on the fact that he is in a different division? This is despite having an identical MMR.

It seems that the "favored system" must take into account this tiered division system when determining points awarded for wins/losses.


It has to discount division offsets when determining that. So it would compare A's MMR to B's (2815 - 315 = 2500). If it didn't, it would create inflation. It would also compare B's MMR to A's 2500 rating.

Also, it would show each player as favored, not opponent favored (opponent MMR vs your rating).
Moderator
Camlito
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
Australia4040 Posts
November 24 2010 02:21 GMT
#288
On November 24 2010 00:46 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2010 19:17 Camlito wrote:
Love the work!

Are their any plans to do this for EU or SEA soon? I'd be interested in SEA because i'd like to see what it takes to get into the top 200 for me, since i went inactive for a month on SEA and came back, my MMR is still very high but my points are low, so i always get less points than others. Just curious!


I'm not planning on expanding this to other servers, but I recommend that someone does, since more information is always better. That someone could be you! It actually doesn't take a very long time, it's just more work than I'd want to put in for a region with which I'm unfamiliar.


I've already started doing some research. Finding out which divisions are higher ranked than others. Luckily mine has 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the SEA ladder, so at least i know it's S Rank .
sAviOr...
Black Gun
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Germany4482 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 02:30:12
November 24 2010 02:29 GMT
#289
hmm, very interesting stuff. but doesnt this mean that if u are placed in a weak division, there is almost no chance of ever making #1 on the blizz top 200 rankings as u would have to have some 300-ish points more than top players from s-class divisions?

for example white-ra is at 2.975 points atm, and his division (feld delta) surely is an s-class division. to beat him as a player in a rank E division, u would have to have almost 3.3k points, while the highest amount of points atm is 3.2k. so basically it seems pretty much impossible for any european player to compete with white-ra for the #1 europe spot if this player is in a low-ranked league. so if u are unlucky at the moment of promotion to diamond and end up in a E-ranked division, u are pretty much fucked in terms of the top 200 lists.
"What am I supposed to do against this?" - "Lose!" :-]
tyir
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada15 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 02:39:58
November 24 2010 02:38 GMT
#290
Black Gun: No, that's not correct. The difficult to get to 2975 in an S-class is exactly the same as getting a3.3k (or whatever the modifier is exactly) in in E-class. It's literally identical.

The division you are in has no effect at all in the difficulty of getting in the top 200. The fact that no one is above 3.2k means that no one is ahead of white-ra in the ladder. That's all.


MasterAsia
Profile Joined November 2009
United States170 Posts
November 24 2010 02:45 GMT
#291
excalibur_Z, I found something very difficult to understand.

There are a few players with very low diamond rating in the top 200 list in Taiwan.

For example, this guy:

http://tw.battle.net/sc2/zh/profile/143488/2/Gale/

He has only 600 pts in diamond, and ranks at 196 in the top 200 list this week.

There are more than 1000 people with 1600+ rating diamond on Taiwan server.

Is there an explanation for this?

Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12237 Posts
November 24 2010 03:17 GMT
#292
On November 24 2010 11:45 MasterAsia wrote:
excalibur_Z, I found something very difficult to understand.

There are a few players with very low diamond rating in the top 200 list in Taiwan.

For example, this guy:

http://tw.battle.net/sc2/zh/profile/143488/2/Gale/

He has only 600 pts in diamond, and ranks at 196 in the top 200 list this week.

There are more than 1000 people with 1600+ rating diamond on Taiwan server.

Is there an explanation for this?



Some other people have mentioned anomalies like that in the TW server, too. I can't really figure it out and I can't get an answer from Blizzard either. Maybe it has something to do with the low population? It will be interesting to see if the LA server has the same issues.
Moderator
Ack1027
Profile Blog Joined January 2004
United States7873 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 06:59:17
November 24 2010 06:58 GMT
#293
Haven't been able to comb through every post but, can we assume that the diamonds divisions not listed are either e-rank or just not enough info? Thanks for all the work btw keep it up excal.
RaiZ
Profile Blog Joined April 2003
2813 Posts
November 24 2010 07:38 GMT
#294
Fuk that, i knew from start that my division was just garbage. Even tho i've a decent rank, i knew that it was way less important than someone who was in the same division as dimaga, morrow, tarson & co.
God why is blizzard still nitpicking their stats ? Just give us the real rank already. I really don't give a fcuking godman shit about being 1st or not in my division cauz it's not the same as the S-Rank player
Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth. Oscar Wilde
hephaestos
Profile Joined September 2010
France54 Posts
November 24 2010 07:55 GMT
#295
Ok, I tried to do the work for the EU ladder, and the first data I analyze don't fit, there we are :
Top 200 blizard, rank 30 : Sjow and Infpro http://eu.battle.net/sc2/fr/blog/1010010#blog

They are both in the same division, so if only points count they should have the same number of points at the time of the ranking.

Sjow was 353/153, and he is now 361/157. He has now 2759 points, and if I remove his last 8 victories (+98) and 4 defeats (-43), by looking in his history, he had 2704 points when the top200 was made.

Infpro was 509/386 and is now 514/388. He has now 2723 points. I remove his last 5 victories (+53) and 2 defeats (-19) which brings me to a total of 2689 points.

So, those 5 missing points, how can we explain them ?
hephaestos
Profile Joined September 2010
France54 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 08:11:10
November 24 2010 08:06 GMT
#296
I tried also with vasilisk and mouzmana, and here the 'multiple of 63 paradigm' is off, it is impossible to reconcile the two divisions of these players with a multiple of 63.

(edit : it is in fact possible, if he won 35 points in the unrecorded match he won, I thought it was impossible, but it seems it is possible indeed)
hephaestos
Profile Joined September 2010
France54 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 14:23:33
November 24 2010 09:15 GMT
#297
Ok, i guess the discrepancies come from the bonus pool, how can we take this into account ?

I tried to analyse the data for the EU ladder, here is what I can tell so far :
S-rank :
Feld delta
forge eta
agria alpha
tal'darim theta
stukov foxtrot
uraj eta
akilae lima
Roach Lambda
zealot alamo
mar sara sigma

A-rank:

B-rank :
routhe victor
reaper gravity
chau sara quest

C-rank :
executor alamo
shiloh oscar

D-rank :

E-rank :
duke sigma
Sakai lima
broodling mu

F-rank
Khaydarin X-Ray
hephaestos
Profile Joined September 2010
France54 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-11-24 11:43:52
November 24 2010 10:11 GMT
#298
Also, I have very strange data with two people belonging to the zealot alamo division :

Loz (feld delta) and bischu (zealot alamo), both ranked 90th, had roughly a difference of 63 points (one unknown defeat for bischu).

Kare (feld delta) and playzonefury (zealot alamo), both ranked 54th, had exactly the same amount of points.

Since there are other hints that zealot alamo is S-rank division, I think there is a problem with bischu's data (loz's data fit well with the other). I wonder if it is possible that the points modifier would be different for some players belonging to the same division. I have only one such case so far, but it is a strong one.
Gulzt
Profile Joined August 2009
Netherlands275 Posts
November 24 2010 10:16 GMT
#299
On November 18 2010 05:22 Excalibur_Z wrote:
We know that the Top 200 is generated by points without factoring in "the skill of your division."
We know that the Top 200 is not based on MMR or any other factor except points (including bonus used), confirmed at Blizzcon.


Hi Excalibur,
Great post! Just one question: Can you give us the source to this knowledge? I thought I read every blizzcon post and I never saw this mentioned. In the beta FAQ blizzard clearly stated there was no difference in divisions.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12237 Posts
November 24 2010 16:28 GMT
#300
On November 24 2010 19:16 Gulzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 18 2010 05:22 Excalibur_Z wrote:
We know that the Top 200 is generated by points without factoring in "the skill of your division."
We know that the Top 200 is not based on MMR or any other factor except points (including bonus used), confirmed at Blizzcon.


Hi Excalibur,
Great post! Just one question: Can you give us the source to this knowledge? I thought I read every blizzcon post and I never saw this mentioned. In the beta FAQ blizzard clearly stated there was no difference in divisions.


The first part was touched upon during the Blizzcon Multiplayer Panel Q&A and was in response to my question, which you can find on Youtube. The second part was not recorded anywhere and comes from a discussion Vanick and I had with the senior designer who answered my question in the Q&A after the panel concluded.
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