thats actually really interesting how zerg has a better win% on NA but Euro is complete opposite (55.0% tvz wow) and 51% pvz isn't too bad thats really close to 50% but this obviously is counting all diamond games not just top top player games but still interesting to see ^^.
Thank god I wasn't the only one who had major TvP troubles(In the U.S anyways, 56% is pretty significant). Don't really understand the point of an adjusted percentage, raw numbers should be more accurate.
So yet again Blizzard releases more percentages with no context... I don't understand why they do this. One thing I've noticed is that in the different regions players like and dislike different maps. Some map specific data would be nice or data on the maps downvoted per region WITH the win percentages. Just seeing a bunch of %'s doesnt really tell us anything. And yet they keep doing it.
Yeah not much can be gleaned from these stats. I think they keep releasing them to show us how close to 50% everything is. Regardless of how they "control" for skill level it's still ridiculous.
How can you tell which side wins? Does PvT 56.5% mean that protoss wins 56.5% in pvt battles and that Terran wins 43.5%? That's how I'm reading it, that the winner is on the left and loser on right side of the 'V' Just want to make sure I'm reading it correctly.
Win percentage by map would probably shed a lot more light on how games are actually working. It would also be interesting to know average game length in each of the matchups, since that would reveal how much rush tactics are affecting the overall numbers.
If anything, it shows that Z is slightly favored in PvZ and its very even in TvZ. Its funny how PvT stats are totally going in differnt directions on different servers
I think Blizzard is pretty happy with these numbers. During Blizzcon the balance team said that for them a skew of +/- 5% in the win/loss percentage was acceptable.
The SEA server is smaller than the other and will have larger deviations than the rest.
On November 07 2010 17:38 Icx wrote: hm interesting,
I was actually thinking that in general that it was T>P in NA and P>T in korea, but it seems like it's actually the other way around :p
it's actually really weird how the PvT mu is so different in general numbers from region to region, while the other Mu's have smaller differences.
I mean from a 45-48% loss for Protoss in EU/kor to a 56,5% win for protoss in the US, that's a fairly big difference.
Thats because more likely than not this stats are not limited to a single league, so even if Diamond Protoss had 44.9% win rate vs Terran, so long as Silver, Bronze, Platinum have 50-55% all of a sudden it will magically look like Protoss is OP.
These stats are pooled from noobs and can tell nothing about game balance... sigh.
Edit: looks to be diamond only misread OP, there is still a huge skill cap in diamond league.
On November 07 2010 17:38 Icx wrote: hm interesting,
I was actually thinking that in general that it was T>P in NA and P>T in korea, but it seems like it's actually the other way around :p
it's actually really weird how the PvT mu is so different in general numbers from region to region, while the other Mu's have smaller differences.
I mean from a 45-48% loss for Protoss in EU/kor to a 56,5% win for protoss in the US, that's a fairly big difference.
Thats because more likely than not this stats are not limited to a single league, so even if Diamond Protoss had 44.9% win rate vs Terran, so long as Silver, Bronze, Platinum have 50-55% all of a sudden it will magically look like Protoss is OP.
These stats are pooled from noobs and can tell nothing about game balance... sigh.
it says it's all from diamond.
That said, these numbers have almost nothing to do with game balance. I think it's absurd that they release it to try to prove anything.
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
OH really? Your counting the SEA which most go to US now. tvz in Europe/Korea favor terran so tvz looks balanced. So the only MU that "looks" like zerg is favored in is protoss. Definitely shows how "imba" zerg is lmao. Not like these stats matter anyway as it counts ALL of Diamond so this again shows nothing ^^.
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
lol
The stats don't show that at all. The stats show that imbalance for every matchup in one region is balanced by the opposite imbalance in another region.
Blizzard should release w/l % by map across particular ladder point distributions within Diamond. As it is, I can't help but question the motives behind releasing these numbers since Blizzard obviously knows this information is relatively meaningless by itself.
On November 07 2010 17:35 iCCup.Raelcun wrote: So yet again Blizzard releases more percentages with no context... I don't understand why they do this. One thing I've noticed is that in the different regions players like and dislike different maps. Some map specific data would be nice or data on the maps downvoted per region WITH the win percentages. Just seeing a bunch of %'s doesnt really tell us anything. And yet they keep doing it.
They might be doing it to promote discussion if anything. I don't see any other reason for it :/
I think it will be really interesting to see the shift PvZ will take withing the next few months as protoss' figure out the new timings in adapted builds.
On November 07 2010 17:47 MooiSh wrote: I think it will be really interesting to see the shift PvZ will take withing the next few months as protoss' figure out the new timings in adapted builds.
I think so too.
It is quite amazing, before this patch PvZ was favored towards Protoss (55%) on NA, but since then it has dropped by 7%! The roach change had a pretty big effect on Toss. But I do agree about the timings part. Up until today I was opening stargate every game because I couldn't handle muta/ling, but after starting a thread, I was informed about a 6gate timing that hits just as mutas pop which works REALLY well. But not sure what if there are any timings that you can exploit to combat mass roaches
I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage Then terran gets their key upgrades and becomes very strong Then protoss gets storm and/or colossus and the balance switches again to (imo) a slight protoss advantage.
As long as these stats include the WHOLE diamond league, then they are meaningless. There are lots of terrible players even in diamond who play casually or semi-casually with people trying funky strategy and goofing around and since they are the majority, they can skew the stats 3-4% one way or the other easily.
If they can include only top200 from each region somehow...
On November 07 2010 17:58 Inori wrote: These stats mean nothing because they take whole Diamond into account, along with the 1000 newbies and etc. A much better situation report would be a graph like this http://sc2ranks.com/stats/race/all/1 and look at stats above 2000.
I agree, though to be even better, they would have the matchup %s as functions of hidden skill rating.
i.e. let P_Z(x) be the percent of wins for protoss against zerg at skill rating x.
Then graph P_Z(x), its possible that it stays pretty stable for all of diamond. I'd bet against that though, more likely protoss wins less as skill rating increases. Just picking a random threshold of 2000 points is roughly as non-enlightening as blizzard picking diamond leage as a threshold.
Really I just want some pretty graphs so I can QQ in style.
I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
On November 07 2010 17:42 fdsdfg wrote: That said, these numbers have almost nothing to do with game balance. I think it's absurd that they release it to try to prove anything.
Exactly.
Blizzard really needs to stop looking so much at statistics and numbers and start looking at the actual game.
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage Then terran gets their key upgrades and becomes very strong Then protoss gets storm and/or colossus and the balance switches again to (imo) a slight protoss advantage.
Heh,I beg to differ. At least the way the the Devs were pitching it at Blizzcon, Terran has the advantage until it gets late into the game where Protoss can tech to storm, but it is pretty difficult, even Dustin Browder was commenting on how hard it was for Protoss to get Storm when he was casting along side Day[9]. It is very difficult to get to the point of getting Storm, at least for me I only ever get to tech to storm once every 5-6 games. But then you have games like Socke vs Jinro on DO during MLG, where Toss went for Storm first but it didn't even seem like he had any advantage at all.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
cannot wait for the gm league so there are actual top level numbers as opposed to people that have 1 build per matchup or less being weighted the same as top players.
Seems like the average t in na is lagging behind in exploiting timings and drops against p so far.
Interesting and encouraging to see that everything really does hover around the 50% mark.
I agree with nearly everyone else though, we can't gather anything from these statistics alone. We'd need the entire suite of numbers and tools available to blizzard to get a good idea of how the game looks. Also, I'm betting that without a patch those numbers will still change quite drastically from simple shifts in the metagame.
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage Then terran gets their key upgrades and becomes very strong Then protoss gets storm and/or colossus and the balance switches again to (imo) a slight protoss advantage.
The only valid criticism of these statistics so far is this one. However, the differences in area results may just highlight the prevalence of superior tactics in that region, and not basic game unfairness. What Blizzard has on its hands is international diplomacy... with each party being from a different planet and each party feeling that they have an unfair disadvantage.
The stats are meaningless, why release them and encourage more balance whining. God damnit blizzard
I am mid diamond and I am not good and neither is anyone at my skill level. dont balance the game around diamond, balance around masters/grand masters leagues.
How is Blizzard factoring in player skill into these figures. They didn't really explain the adjustment process at all, merely why there is a need for it.
I'd really like the win percentages for players above a certain level in diamond. Like, everyone over 1800-1900 mmr or something like that. I'm pretty sure that in PvZ, P is favoured there by quite a lot.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
i think terrans are getting dominated by protoss on the NA server because they aim for end game builds, often they tech to vikings to be able to compete with protoss end game tech, when protoss end game tech will absolutely destroy terrans anyway.
Clearly the better strategy atm is to go for all in aggressive builds and beat the protoss before they can get to mid game.
oh yeah and roaches are insanely cheap for how much they rape protoss ground armies.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
On November 07 2010 17:38 Icx wrote: hm interesting,
I was actually thinking that in general that it was T>P in NA and P>T in korea, but it seems like it's actually the other way around :p
it's actually really weird how the PvT mu is so different in general numbers from region to region, while the other Mu's have smaller differences.
I mean from a 45-48% loss for Protoss in EU/kor to a 56,5% win for protoss in the US, that's a fairly big difference.
Thats because more likely than not this stats are not limited to a single league, so even if Diamond Protoss had 44.9% win rate vs Terran, so long as Silver, Bronze, Platinum have 50-55% all of a sudden it will magically look like Protoss is OP.
These stats are pooled from noobs and can tell nothing about game balance... sigh.
it says it's all from diamond.
That said, these numbers have almost nothing to do with game balance. I think it's absurd that they release it to try to prove anything.
But... they didn't use it to prove anything. They just said, "here's some stats" and then gave us some stats.
They didn't tell us what conclusions they draw from it, nor did they tell us what they were planning to do about any of these numbers. They just gave us some stats.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
At Blizzcon David Kim said they put more weight on Korea because it tends to be where new metagame changing strats emerge from and a leading indicator of balance. Also the skill level there is higher overall.
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage Then terran gets their key upgrades and becomes very strong Then protoss gets storm and/or colossus and the balance switches again to (imo) a slight protoss advantage.
Heh,I beg to differ. At least the way the the Devs were pitching it at Blizzcon, Terran has the advantage until it gets late into the game where Protoss can tech to storm, but it is pretty difficult, even Dustin Browder was commenting on how hard it was for Protoss to get Storm when he was casting along side Day[9]. It is very difficult to get to the point of getting Storm, at least for me I only ever get to tech to storm once every 5-6 games. But then you have games like Socke vs Jinro on DO during MLG, where Toss went for Storm first but it didn't even seem like he had any advantage at all.
4 warpgate protoss has a very slight advantage over terran, which is why terran is forced to turtle in the early game. Once terran gets their upgrades and can move out is when protoss is forced to defend because of the terran advantage. This is when the struggle begins for protoss to just live until he gets colossus or storm.
We are basically saying the same thing though... so I dont really see why you disagree with me (except at the end where you reference socke vs jinro).
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
Last time I checked, NEXGenius was Korean.. I completely agree that higher skilled players can come from anywhere, but you are forgetting the ratio of higher skilled Koreans (I'm talking top 0.5%) in relation to foreigners. At the very least it's equal (It isn't) Meaning Koreans DO have more weight as far as statistics go. Toss is doing fine anywhere outside of Korea where the metagame is different, you must understand that given time the current strats will move over to the other servers and the current korean % will start looking like everyone elses.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
I thought NEXGenius was korean and loner was the chinese? NEXGenius won blizzcon >.>
EDIT: Koreans are better because they have a better environment to practice in. They have lots of people to talk about strategies in a 1 on 1 setting, they have coaches, they have more hours of training, they just have an overall better way to get better at the game.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
I thought NEXGenius was korean and loner was the chinese? NEXGenius won blizzcon >.>
oops sorry I was thinking of the loner vs sen match, disregard that, was silly
They should filter out at least bottom half of diamond league. Up to 1400 diamond you can get away with never going beyond 20 probes/SCVs and rely on 4-gate/7RR/3 rax stim push.
Oh here look at these stats without map information. This is pretty useless data and seems like a desperate blog post that doesn't give the real picture of how things really are.
On November 07 2010 18:18 5unrise wrote: I think these stats are fine, maybe Terran could use a little buff (e.g. removes depot before rax requirement), but all matchups are pretty well balanced
Terran needing a buff?
If we're looking at statistics, mainly look at Koreas ones, that's where most strats come from and contribute a lot to the metagame that will eventually follow to the other servers.
T is fine.
P doesn't look very good.
I disagree, since there are are progaming teams very much everywhere for sc2, there is no reason to put greater weight on Korea. It's not like this is bw where Korea just dominates. There really isn't much of skill gap between Korea and Europe, for example. Just because toss is doing well in Korea doesnt mean toss is UP, since clearly European and NA players have different experiences, and my ladder experiences tell me that toss is very strong if the player makes good decisions. If anything toss should be watched carefully since they are too strong in lower level leagues. Statistics overall show that protoss is fine, Terran is at more of a disadvantage.
Disclaimer: I play zerg
I disagree. Korea should have more weight seeing how, and this is just about universally accepted: Korea has a higher skill level. It is like bw wher Korea dominates there is a skill gap between Europe and Korea for example DIFFERENT winrates. You know why there's different winrates? The higherskilled players (Koreans, generally) find out most strats first and push races to the limit. Why is there such varying winrates from Korea to, for example SEA or NA? Because the metagame is completely different. I did not say protoss is UP and yes, overall Protoss maybe doing fine but are they doing fine where it counts?
If this was broodwar then it is universally accepted. At this point what you said has no empirical backing. Remember blizzcon winner was a Chinese, not a Korean. Higher skilled players can come from anywhere at this point, and so winrates from each region must be taken into account. In any case, even if you only compare Korea, which is a wrong approach, you will see that protoss winrate against other races are close to 50% to the extent that the differential is negligible. Toss is fine.
I thought NEXGenius was korean and loner was the chinese? NEXGenius won blizzcon >.>
EDIT: Koreans are better because they have a better environment to practice in. They have lots of people to talk about strategies in a 1 on 1 setting, they have coaches, they have more hours of training, they just have an overall better way to get better at the game.
Very true. In actual fact, hardly anything has changed since BW. Korea has always been a better environment to improve in. Hence why so many pros go over there. However, having saying that e-sports has grown in the foreigner scene so we are catching up, but the skill gap is still there. Don't be blinded by foreigners vs foreigners and thinking they're on the same level as Koreans, most, are not.
those stats show nothing, if there was the biggest imbalance that only the top 100 of the respective race are able to use, the stats would still show 50%. this is nothing but useless. if they splittet it in another section for every number of players withing a range from bout 300 pts, it would be interesting. the top 200 are way more helpfull. and the most helpfull stats are those showing the current win% in tournaments provided by teamliquid users.
This is where top players from each server should post the common strats for each match-up used in their region so the general skill level and strategic depth can move forward.
Idra said earlier today there is only 1 zerg in EU which would make sense how a zerg is only winning 49% in zvp. Protoss really can't deal well with hyrdas and roaches until midgame,but it usually doesn't get far enough. Plus mutas are the bane of a protosses existence.
On November 07 2010 19:02 darmousseh wrote: Idra said earlier today there is only 1 zerg in EU which would make sense how a zerg is only winning 49% in zvp. Protoss really can't deal well with hyrdas and roaches until midgame,but it usually doesn't get far enough. Plus mutas are the bane of a protosses existence.
yes, and Idra obviously meant that there is only one Zerg in the entire diamond population.
On November 07 2010 19:02 darmousseh wrote: Idra said earlier today there is only 1 zerg in EU which would make sense how a zerg is only winning 49% in zvp. Protoss really can't deal well with hyrdas and roaches until midgame,but it usually doesn't get far enough. Plus mutas are the bane of a protosses existence.
If what you say were true we would probably see much larger than a ~2% difference in win/loss...
"What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill."
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. i wonder what the %s before all the fancy complicated math are
On November 07 2010 17:29 AyJay wrote: Oh no. WHY BLIZZARD?!?! WHY????
Incoming balance discussions.
Really ?
With numbers like (Europe)PvT - 45.3% versus (North America)PvT - 56.5% I think the last thing this can inspire is a racial balance discussion.
This might explain why players on the boards *feel* for their races to be more unbalanced than they are. A Euro Toss and a NA Terran will probably both feel their races to be at a disadvantage in the PvT matchup, but what these numbers really seem to imply to me is that on each server, one side seems a bit further ahead in developing successful strategies for this particular matchup.
On November 07 2010 19:16 xiaofan wrote: "What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill."
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. i wonder what the %s before all the fancy complicated math are
It would be irrelevent because it doesn't take into account a player's skill level.
On November 07 2010 19:16 xiaofan wrote: "What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill."
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. i wonder what the %s before all the fancy complicated math are
Ok, I'll tell you:
49-51%, because of the matchmaker. They showed these stats at Blizzcon. Take your conspiracy nonsense somewhere else.
On November 07 2010 17:35 StarcraftMan wrote: The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
I disagree , SEA diamond most of the players have moved over to NA - the sample size is too small for SEA diamond to draw any conclusions from.
I think its sweet that 1 not so huge buff changed the whole metagame in PvZ eliminating like 90% of a protoss build arsenal and made them 10 times more predictable. this is the reason behind the huge change in Win%. Cant wait for the next one. it might change back/start falling equal as idra said in "State of the game" or he actually said "Protoss will be favored" but i take that as equal seeing as hes a drama queen. i felt PvZ was kinda balanced prepatch but ZVT needed a fix. witch caused PVZ to change dramatically. i don't think blizzard expected the whole metagame to get messed up because of +1 range. or just continue to go the same way. i myself see Zerg as harder then Terran atm, and i play on EU where theres 55% win% for a terran.
On November 07 2010 17:33 blade55555 wrote: I really wish they released these back before the first balance patch. Would have been interesting to see tvz win %.
i'd say it's pretty ballanced looking at those numbers when it doesn't excede 45%-55% margin I'd say things are pretty much ballanced
I think the reason that PvT is so much lower in Korea then in the US is that Terran is stronger early-mid game and Protoss is stronger late game. From the GSLs it was obvious that Koreans manage to abuse this alot more then anywhere else, in US the games are probably going to late-game more.
Well this is fine, these statistics are not specific enough to use for anything, I hope you all understand that. On the other hand, statistics per map, that would actually be interresting and worth discussing a little.
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage Then terran gets their key upgrades and becomes very strong Then protoss gets storm and/or colossus and the balance switches again to (imo) a slight protoss advantage.
Heh,I beg to differ. At least the way the the Devs were pitching it at Blizzcon, Terran has the advantage until it gets late into the game where Protoss can tech to storm, but it is pretty difficult, even Dustin Browder was commenting on how hard it was for Protoss to get Storm when he was casting along side Day[9]. It is very difficult to get to the point of getting Storm, at least for me I only ever get to tech to storm once every 5-6 games. But then you have games like Socke vs Jinro on DO during MLG, where Toss went for Storm first but it didn't even seem like he had any advantage at all.
That's because he was at an economic disadvantage all game. Jinro was 1 base up the whole game.
On November 07 2010 19:54 osten wrote: Well this is fine, these statistics are not specific enough to use for anything, I hope you all understand that. On the other hand, statistics per map, that would actually be interresting and worth discussing a little.
I would rather see game length win statistics.
ie: 5 minute games have protoss ahead of terran, 10 minute games have terran ahead of protoss, 20 minute games have protoss ahead of terran etc etc (maybe in smaller increments).
We need mapspecific winpercentages. Maps were what made Brood War ultimately balanced. And it's better to make new maps than to constantly change up the units.
Blizzard already stated that korea is always on top of the curve, meaning that their percentages are the most meaningful and the other regions slowly cath up. In one or two weeks we should see that the other regions will have nearly the same percentages as korea has now. At least that's what Blizzard says, Korea seems to have the fastest changing metagame.
So many complaints just because blizzard released some statistics!
I don't think these show much on their own, but they are supporting evidence that there's no huge imbalances which span all of diamond league level play.
if they nerf protoss i am gonna cry, they have nothing but all in timing attacks vs zerg. PvT is ok but no one uses storms atm. I dont mind if they nerf collosus i hate that unit it ruins PvP.
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage
On November 07 2010 18:05 TheRabidDeer wrote: I dislike these stats purely because some matchups just have dramatic balance swings DURING the game. ie: PvT Protoss initially has a slight advantage
Pardon?
Until stim finishes and mules are rolling, the chrono boost mechanic increase's P's initial income and makes them stronger. Once stim is done with conc shells T dominates early game until colossus and it would seem they are better lategame with storm but painusers lategame begs to differ. P.S As a european zerg I am not imbalanced!! My opinion is well rounded and unbiased from now on.
Stim fininishes early as hell and is cheap along with the concussive marauder it's attached to. The time window you're talking about is miniscule and from what I've been reading the community, so irrelivant it's never mentioned. The general concensus from what I see is T is superior in the opening minutes, period.
If T blocks ramp i don't see how P could be said to have an advantage early game.You won't be able to push him if he's sat behind his ramp repairing depots whilst those rines happily shoot away.
i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
I think in the EU protoss suffer from more early pressure from terran. In my experience early timing pushes with bio are extremely popular which slows the protoss from acquiring it's deathball/wins outright.
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
Rofl, here comes the balance squad... Yeah, the community definitely suspected zerg op...and of course these stats are meaningful and confirm it...
says the zerg player guess the reason why zerg was buffed?
OT: i dont see why those stats are useless. i dont take the time to compare them to older ones but imagine you work on the game and you sure want every bit of information to see how maybe the latest patch changed things. its a feedback for them. dont deny this fact. and they sharing it with you! what a bunch of stupid selfish bastards, huh?
and rely only on pro gamers would not be a very good idea, would it? or you guys think that every pro says "nah my race is fine but please buff the other 2".
its rare that a gamecompany gives insight in what they do or think. but then bitching about it is ridiculous. prefer blizzard acting like elitists give you no information until the patch hits your faces? you guys would be the first that then spamm these forums "how those idiots balance the game".
I think these stats have the value of keeping everyone in perspective. At least now we won't have terran scrubs saying zerg is winning over 60% of their matches or some other nonsense.
Really should include SOME sort of map data, but I'm sure they keep they info to themselves, for whatever reason.
Thse stats would be more meaningful if they covered matches involving a member of the top200 only, and then map statisics each. We don't know for example if Protoss is winning 80% of the time on Lost Temple, while Terran could be doing the reverse on Stepps of War.
The races are all looking pretty balanced, what we need now is some improvements on map balance.
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
Not to start a flame war or anything but I think NA has generally better Protoss players.
HuK and KiwiKaki said it themselves at the first MLG - maybe as a joke, or just in fun, that they believed the EU server had better players overall (as they both have accounts on NA and EU), but they believed the NA server definitely had better Protoss players. Socke, MaNa, HasuObs, White-Ra, and Naniwa are definitely good. Although I think I'd have to agree that NA has a bit of a stronger line-up, despite a lot of Protoss players in NA are unknown or not given nearly enough credit. TT1 and Axslav are two examples of really great players that just don't get the credit they deserve due to some lackluster tournament performances. Despite that they've torn the ladder up, etc etc.
I think the only time we can figure out racial balance is when they do this for their masters and grand masters league, but then again that sample size might be too small.
On November 07 2010 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
On November 07 2010 22:55 leveller wrote: Interesting for me to know that in US protoss are favoured in TvP but in EU its terrans... I wonder why that is?
Might be because Americans like to turtle up and macro while the Europeans are extremely aggressive and micro. Protoss gets stronger the longer the game goes on than terran so these European terrans are probably just winning their matches sooner.
It's been said before but it's true: The way ladder works, when you win you play stronger opponents and when you lose you play weaker opponents. Add to this the huge range of skill found in diamond and you basically get a win rate that that should be 50% for almost each player (like it is).
That being said, it's interesting how some matchups are more favored in some servers than others.
On November 07 2010 22:55 leveller wrote: Interesting for me to know that in US protoss are favoured in TvP but in EU its terrans... I wonder why that is?
Might be because Americans like to turtle up and macro while the Europeans are extremely aggressive and micro. Protoss gets stronger the longer the game goes on than terran so these European terrans are probably just winning their matches sooner.
Na Europeans play more harass oriented. It's generally Korean players that do the get in your face aggression from the onset
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
Well first of all remember that winrate against Zerg affects the "skill" measurement so the stats aren't that simplistic.
What's interesting is that Korea is in the middle. Since Korea usually leads the trend (according to Blizzard) are they actually behind one of the other regions? Are NA Protoss players better than Korean Protoss players? Having watched the GSL that might actually be true.
I'm worried that a lot of the win percentage changes are just due to dramatic rearrangement of the ladder after the patch. It would be nice to know roughly how long it needs to settle down after something like that.
I think it would be nice if Bliz did a top 200 and per map.
You know a matchup might have a serious problem overall but if the people on the losing side downvote their 3 worst maps at a higher rate than it might mess things up.
I think instead of changing things so quickly, blizzard should work on balancing the maps we have and coming up with new maps that are a bit better or at least on par with some of the better ones they have now (e.g. metalopolis).
On November 07 2010 23:13 udgnim wrote: don't know if anyone has done this yet, but average of all 4 regions is the following:
PvT: 51.25% PvZ: 47.975% TvZ: 50.35%
Brood War like balance where balanced is supposed to be P > T > Z > P
This is so wrong. You cannot just add those numbers and divide by 4, because the number of diamond players in each region differs. We would need to know how many players there are and weight them different while getting the average.
On November 07 2010 23:13 udgnim wrote: don't know if anyone has done this yet, but average of all 4 regions is the following:
PvT: 51.25% PvZ: 47.975% TvZ: 50.35%
Brood War like balance where balanced is supposed to be P > T > Z > P
This is so wrong. You cannot just add those numbers and divide by 4, because the number of diamond players in each region differs. We would need to know how many players there are and weight them different while getting the average.
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
Well first of all remember that winrate against Zerg affects the "skill" measurement so the stats aren't that simplistic.
What's interesting is that Korea is in the middle. Since Korea usually leads the trend (according to Blizzard) are they actually behind one of the other regions? Are NA Protoss players better than Korean Protoss players? Having watched the GSL that might actually be true.
That's why we're exporting Huk there. to teach the Koreans how to play.
Assuming Blizzard changes things based on statistics, this data would support a change in PvZ in P's favor. All the other MU's show fairly even distributions.
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
Well first of all remember that winrate against Zerg affects the "skill" measurement so the stats aren't that simplistic.
What's interesting is that Korea is in the middle. Since Korea usually leads the trend (according to Blizzard) are they actually behind one of the other regions? Are NA Protoss players better than Korean Protoss players? Having watched the GSL that might actually be true.
On November 07 2010 23:13 udgnim wrote: don't know if anyone has done this yet, but average of all 4 regions is the following:
PvT: 51.25% PvZ: 47.975% TvZ: 50.35%
Brood War like balance where balanced is supposed to be P > T > Z > P
This is so wrong. You cannot just add those numbers and divide by 4, because the number of diamond players in each region differs. We would need to know how many players there are and weight them different while getting the average.
I dont quite get this... If the system is looking for 50% winrate for you, how much more irrelevant can these statistics be? Why not at least post map statistics? Or the numbers of players taken into account? Or the average time for a game in each match up?
sorry for not contributing but fuck blizzard one server please.. jesus christ.. or cross realm play at least. stop the stupid stats imo. they mean shit without cross realm play.
On November 07 2010 22:07 Geo.Rion wrote: i dont know if im suppoused to laugh or cry reading these comments here. Ppl go insane over statistics this is the only thing worth discussing: PvT - 56.5% PvT - 45.3% What do NA players do so differently then EU players, that gap is huge
Well first of all remember that winrate against Zerg affects the "skill" measurement so the stats aren't that simplistic.
What's interesting is that Korea is in the middle. Since Korea usually leads the trend (according to Blizzard) are they actually behind one of the other regions? Are NA Protoss players better than Korean Protoss players? Having watched the GSL that might actually be true.
That's why we're exporting Huk there. to teach the Koreans how to play.
Good one:D
I for one am excited to see how Huk will do in korea.
On November 07 2010 23:13 udgnim wrote: don't know if anyone has done this yet, but average of all 4 regions is the following:
PvT: 51.25% PvZ: 47.975% TvZ: 50.35%
Brood War like balance where balanced is supposed to be P > T > Z > P
This is so wrong. You cannot just add those numbers and divide by 4, because the number of diamond players in each region differs. We would need to know how many players there are and weight them different while getting the average.
Region 1: 1 player of each race PvT: 100% PvZ: 0% TvZ: 100%
Region 2: 1000 players of each race PvT: 50% PvZ: 50% TvZ: 50%
According to you logic it would mean: PvT: 75% PvZ: 25% TvZ: 75%
I'd love to do a weighted average but I have no idea how the population numbers compare in each region, so it's either do an average of all 4 regions or focus on the Korean statistics. /shrug
On November 08 2010 00:44 TheDna wrote: They should only release the top 3-10% of diamond games. The rest is like old bronze league anyways.. This doesn't say much tbh :/
I find it funny how europe is very different from the other servers. especialy the europe<->NA difference is strange, because I did not think that theres a huge playstile difference.
Overall I think that Korea does show the most balance significance because they have a much more stacked diamond league.
But I would be very interested in seeing how low-mid-high diamond matchups compare to eachother!
The result of the whole "diamond league" doesn't mean anything. For instance about the PvZ 47% win-ratio. It's most likely 50-50 in low diamond and 40-60 at the highest diamond league (judging at the sc2ranks statistics which show more and more zergs and less and less protoss as the point increases) but as most of the players are at a low level (gaussian distribution) the real balance of the game is obscured by the bad Zerg players who have no idea of how to beat a classic 4 gates push all-in.
Not to read too much into these numbers but by the looks of it TvZ isn't in a terrible state ... it is in fact pretty balanced.
The biggest problems seems to be PvT in fact and Blizzard already said they were looking into it.
Right now in my opinion T and Z are pretty good but P has some weird internal imbalances. What I mean is that they are super strong at a 4 gate push, terribly bad mid game and have the best late game army. I think Protoss needs to be more even over the course of the game in order to balance with the other races.
Once they tweak the P mechanics to make them more even they should be able to balance PvT and PvZ. TvZ is in my opinion both the most fun matchup (to watch and play) and the most balanced non-mirror.
On November 08 2010 00:40 Jayson X wrote: I dont quite get this... If the system is looking for 50% winrate for you, how much more irrelevant can these statistics be? Why not at least post map statistics? Or the numbers of players taken into account? Or the average time for a game in each match up?
I agree with this. If only 20% of players in diamond are protoss, that means that protoss is more difficult to play right. The match making system tries to find a balance between individual players, not between races. A statistic of the distribution of races would make more sense. Oh wait, from the original blog post, they apparently take that into account. But without a detailed explanation on how. But what does that mean for the reliability of the numbers...
(If a lot of people in diamond would play random, the random players could be measured for a reliable measure. Maybe the only reliable method available?)
On November 08 2010 01:14 HalfAmazing wrote: These stats are completely meaningless because blizzard applies some funny math to get these numbers. These are not raw, they are manipulated.
For most people raw numbers would be more misleading that the 'manipulated' ones. They're manipulated in order to balance for many random factors.
However, I agree that Blizzard should release the raw numbers... they should just release ALL the raw numbers, not only w/l.
PvT - 1.25% in favor of protoss PvZ - 2.025% in favor of zerg TvZ - 1.4% in favor of terran (note this is solely due to T dominance on EU servers) TvZ (discounting EU) - 3.6%in favor of zerg
Europe seems to be the outlier in most cases. PvT, as a whole, is anyone's call as each race appears to be dominant over the other on at least two servers. PvZ is most obviously (and consistently) in favor of zerg. In total, T is only ahead of Z due to EU's numbers. Otherwise, Z holds strong in that MU.
On November 08 2010 01:34 Osmoses wrote: I'm really impressed with how balanced the game is already. All matchups everywhere are within 5% deviations of win/loss. Very impressive.
This just means you don't understand statistics very well.
On November 08 2010 01:34 Osmoses wrote: I'm really impressed with how balanced the game is already. All matchups everywhere are within 5% deviations of win/loss. Very impressive.
This just means you don't understand statistics very well.
care to enlighten us on what exactly he's misunderstanding? His statement seems accurate to me..
let me guess.. you analyzed the statistics with your genius statistical mind and have determined that the game is incredibly unbalanced right? so please enlighten us which matchups are soooo IMBA right now??
On November 07 2010 22:14 Chill wrote: These stats are dumb and useless. I'm going to bed.
QFT. You can get to like 1700 by just 4gating or bunker pushing. Being in diamond doesn't qualify you of anything. I taught my friend 4 gate and he got 1100 diamond in 90 games.
Ladder numbers don't mean anything because, based on the ladder mechanism, it should be around 50% even if its completely imbalanced. For instance, in the hypothetical situation that Z is very OP and T very UP, a top T will be matched against a average Z and win % will still be around 50% for both races. The number of Z's that are top ranked will only increase, which could also be an artifact as a consequence of higher Z skill level. A 5% win difference in a matchup is hugh actually, considering it should be 50% based on ladder mechanism.
On November 08 2010 01:34 Osmoses wrote: I'm really impressed with how balanced the game is already. All matchups everywhere are within 5% deviations of win/loss. Very impressive.
This just means you don't understand statistics very well.
care to enlighten us on what exactly he's misunderstanding? His statement seems accurate to me..
let me guess.. you analyzed the statistics with your genius mind and have determined that the game is incredibly unbalanced right? so please enlighten us which matchups are soooo IMBA right now??
Because the deviation isn't one directional. It's not just how much more often one race wins, it's how often the other loses, as well. So if it's 55% in favor of protoss for example, that means it's only 45% for terran. The deviation here would be 10%, not 5 and that is really quite significant.
By the way, Blizzard needs to release their mirror matchup stats, with the same algorithms applied. I bet somehow protoss would be 55% against protoss.
I have the consistent feeling that ultimately, Diamond players just say "fuck it" to whatever happens in a patch and adapt to the situation at hand. I don't think the data means much.
Wow. I never would have guessed that in Diamond, Z beats P slightly more often. As a Zerg player, P is my weakest matchup. If this leads to a buff for P against Z, I'm in trouble :/ I guess I need to L2P.
Also, this data shows that TvZ is very balanced. I still don't agree with the depot before rax, though.
Kind of surprised of Zvt kind of faovuring terran statiscticaly in europe. Kind of suspect that too many zergs favour roach heavy play against bio/tank, which is kind of bad. However that will soon learn that with muta/bling they will have a slight advantage vs terran.
Hilarious how before the latest patch people were using these same stats to prove T was 'overpowered'. Now that the stats actually don't back up their argument they're saying 'oh you can't use these!'
These statistics matter greatly. Back in beta it made it very obvious which races were overpowered. I remember when Zerg roach was incredible and from what I remember, the win percent ZvP was 70%. Things have vastly improved. Some statistics vary inversely between the different servers so I think overall its balanced but they need to do some work on PvZ a little bit maybe. PvT statistics are weird lol dont know what to make out of em
On November 08 2010 03:41 adeezy wrote: These statistics matter greatly. Back in beta it made it very obvious which races were overpowered. I remember when Zerg roach was incredible and from what I remember, the win percent ZvP was 70%. Things have vastly improved. Some statistics vary inversely between the different servers so I think overall its balanced but they need to do some work on PvZ a little bit maybe. PvT statistics are weird lol dont know what to make out of em
yeh its quite interesting that the PvT statistics vary so much over the different servers. The Ps gotta learn from the NA players while it seems that the Ts gotta learn from Europe
These statistics will mean so much more once we can get them from Master League instead of Diamond, so we don't get 7 Roach Rushes and 4 Gates as like half of the games.
On November 07 2010 17:33 blade55555 wrote: I really wish they released these back before the first balance patch. Would have been interesting to see tvz win %.
Zerg is only winning by a couple % it's not THAT bad as you all claimed it to be. It's not considered OP just because Zerg is winning... How would do you expect to have exactly 50% between two races.
they should take away the supply before rax requirement , it slowed a lot of terran early pushes but it still feels weird.
the roach range is not that big change , the thing zergs learned to do well is to actually USE burrow , never seen a zerg using it on EU till this patch.
prolly thats the cause of EU zergs doing not so well , they just dont have the level of NA or SEA.
On November 08 2010 03:37 oxxo wrote: Hilarious how before the latest patch people were using these same stats to prove T was 'overpowered'. Now that the stats actually don't back up their argument they're saying 'oh you can't use these!'
Well, what surprises me is that back when T was thought to be overpowered, threads popped up and STAYED up for weeks. Now you can't find a single thread that talks about Z being somewhat overpowered. I think the small population of Zergs is also harmful too as when one in 128 or whatever doesn't win a tournament, people think "Oh Zergs fine." When in reality only 5/128 were zerg.
Everyone remember, Blizzard has said MULTIPLE times that anything bigger than a 5% margin one way or the either could even BEGIN to describe a potentially "unbalanced" situation. With that in mind, I suggest everyone looks at Korea's numbers and understand that their strategies have made the game almost perfectly "balanced"...
the real situation is that we are all noobs and need to catch up to korea in terms of strategy instead of just blaming "balance" issues that obviously (if you look at the averages as a WHOLE) come out to being 50% +/- 5% (i know there are outliers but that can easily be explained by lack of strategy that the koreans clearly have developed)
If I were blizzard I would tell everyone to suck it up and learn to play well like the koreans
On November 08 2010 05:34 MagnusHyperion wrote: Everyone remember, Blizzard has said MULTIPLE times that anything bigger than a 5% margin one way or the either could even BEGIN to describe a potentially "unbalanced" situation. With that in mind, I suggest everyone looks at Korea's numbers and understand that their strategies have made the game almost perfectly "balanced"...
the real situation is that we are all noobs and need to catch up to korea in terms of strategy instead of just blaming "balance" issues that obviously (if you look at the averages as a WHOLE) come out to being 50% +/- 5% (i know there are outliers but that can easily be explained by lack of strategy that the koreans clearly have developed)
If I were blizzard I would tell everyone to suck it up and learn to play well like the koreans
Sadly most players like both the dedication and the motivation to do such a thing.
I think whats worse than people using these percentages for balance discussions is the fact that blizzard uses these as a base for their balance changes.
On November 08 2010 05:34 MagnusHyperion wrote: Everyone remember, Blizzard has said MULTIPLE times that anything bigger than a 5% margin one way or the either could even BEGIN to describe a potentially "unbalanced" situation. With that in mind, I suggest everyone looks at Korea's numbers and understand that their strategies have made the game almost perfectly "balanced"...
Well, if I understand it correctly, PvZ is potentially imbalanced in Korea (47.4% vs 52.6%), at a 5.2% difference.
On November 08 2010 03:37 oxxo wrote: Hilarious how before the latest patch people were using these same stats to prove T was 'overpowered'. Now that the stats actually don't back up their argument they're saying 'oh you can't use these!'
Well, what surprises me is that back when T was thought to be overpowered, threads popped up and STAYED up for weeks. Now you can't find a single thread that talks about Z being somewhat overpowered. I think the small population of Zergs is also harmful too as when one in 128 or whatever doesn't win a tournament, people think "Oh Zergs fine." When in reality only 5/128 were zerg.
maybe because terran indeed was OP (see huge nerfs and style shifts and still dominating most tournaments) and people are just crying about Z cause they couldnt adapt/their builds dont mean instawin anymore?
you really are trying hard to justify your opinion
I still eat Zergs for breakfast, but I'm pretty good playing them by myself. I currently don't see any huge balance problems anymore. Nevertheless, I severely criticize both the league policy (divide et impera), the statistics policy (which doesn't exist) and the balance policy (weakening everything, not maintaining unit roles).
The whole procedure of balancing by overall looking at ....... [insert master's thesis here] ....... is cheap.
edit: T surely was overpowered. I regularly crushed two times the army sizes of P and Z armies with T in the beta and the early sc2 versions, mainly because they outrange everything.
If I were blizzard I would tell everyone to suck it up and learn to play well like the koreans
Everybody needs an invisible bogeyman to blame. When you're not one of the ten best players in the world, chances are that you didn't play well enough to whine about anything. And if you are, your job is to stop whining about it and get better. So really, people should just play the game.
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
Why is this guy not at least warned for this post, if not banned? This is an absurb statement with no support.
Win percentages in diamond don't really mean much at all. I could teach my grandma to macro to get into diamond. Win percentages at the high levels are the only things that can give indications of balance, if anything can at all.
On November 08 2010 05:34 MagnusHyperion wrote: Everyone remember, Blizzard has said MULTIPLE times that anything bigger than a 5% margin one way or the either could even BEGIN to describe a potentially "unbalanced" situation. With that in mind, I suggest everyone looks at Korea's numbers and understand that their strategies have made the game almost perfectly "balanced"...
Well, if I understand it correctly, PvZ is potentially imbalanced in Korea (47.4% vs 52.6%), at a 5.2% difference.
No, you've misunderstood the 5% range.
Blizzard considers a match-up imbalanced if one race wins more than 55% of the time, or, a 10% difference between win-rates.
It looks to me like TvZ is about as balanced as a match-up can be, which is great news. PvZ looks fairly balanced as well.
The problem, of course, is how to deal with PvT, without ruining the balance of TvZ. Seems to me that Toss needs some race-specific changes to change the TvP problem of early vs late game (which is not real balance).
why should maps matter? If people are sitting there playing starcraft 15 in 500 years, there will still me maps that favour one race or another. It's bizaare and naive to think this can ever be otherwise.
Of course, that's not to say showing map statistics won't help build better maps overall...but the improved maps will still favour various races for various reasons. Especially given there has been and will be more balance changes (reapers go from being deadly around cliffs to being more or less a completely redundant unit within one patch). Todays terran map is tomorrows zerg map etc etc
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
Why is this guy not at least warned for this post, if not banned? This is an absurb statement with no support.
Win percentages in diamond don't really mean much at all. I could teach my grandma to macro to get into diamond. Win percentages at the high levels are the only things that can give indications of balance, if anything can at all.
the lack of humour on TL forums never ceases to amaze me.
On November 08 2010 02:00 Sepp wrote: Ladder numbers don't mean anything because, based on the ladder mechanism, it should be around 50% even if its completely imbalanced. For instance, in the hypothetical situation that Z is very OP and T very UP, a top T will be matched against a average Z and win % will still be around 50% for both races. The number of Z's that are top ranked will only increase, which could also be an artifact as a consequence of higher Z skill level. A 5% win difference in a matchup is hugh actually, considering it should be 50% based on ladder mechanism.
yes! this is why its a bad idea for blizz to even release this kind of statistic to the general public - because 99% of the ppl will not realize that these statistics are meaningless with b.nets matchmaking system
edit: actually they said they adjusted for that in the blog. " In effect, the matchmaking system could be hiding balance issues -- if we didn't use an adjusted win percentage which takes the matchmaker's effects into account.
What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex,..."
These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Diamond is so diverse in skill levels, i can easily crush low-mid level diamond players and some high diamond crush me at times. they really need to add these higher leagues.
I play Terran and literally everyone you find is a zerg now, it's hard not to get a lot of TvZ Practice and it's harder to get beaten by what seems to be the only race you come across.
Lol. I don't see how so many people can interpret these stats so differently. Here are the averages:
PvT 51.25 PvZ 47.975 ZvT 50.35
PvT -> In Protoss Favor TvZ -> Very very miniscule zerg favor PvZ -> In Zerg favor
I'm a little mixed up about these stats though. If anyone's taken care to note, Zerg went from composing 15% of daimond league to composing about 25%. This means that 10% of diamond league Zerg players are probably new zerg players and therefore bad zerg players. I think if we wait longer, Zerg will continue to pull ahead.
Additionally, I would like to see win/loss ratios for the different point ranges. The sc2 ranks graph of race composition is nice but it doesn't say much. Race composition is a measure of how many players play each race and that is what it measures. It's not a measure of skill. Because of this, the fact that just plain more players play terran mean that terran is going to make up the most of each section. Additionally, toward the end you're measuring a very small pool of players. The second from last one is the top 10 players.
Furthermore, this graph seems to pin the whole in Terran's favor, but if we look at average points: Average points R880 P978 T975 Z1,069 It's clearly in Zerg's favor. However, if you limit it to the top 1000, you get something different: Average points Random: 2,286 Protoss: 2,286 Terran: 2,303 Zerg: 2,283
Then the top 500 comes out completely even: Average points Random: 2,376 Protoss: 2,406 Terran: 2,408 Zerg: 2,401
I think that as you approach the top levels of play on the ladder, the races come out even. But even then, these stats are still skewed. I think Terran win most of their games with cheese, but is in general weaker in a macro based game. We don't really have access to statistics to prove that, though.
This is why I'd rather leave the balancing job to Blizzard >.>
These figures would only be remotely meaningful if they were based off the top 30 players in diamond on each region, as most players under this rarely have perfected strategies that maximise the potential of a faction. You can't consider statsitics like this meaningful. For example, i have 2k points and I dont follow any set strategies or build orders on any map, I just do what I feel like and hope i win. Therefore if I lose to a player whos strategy is perfected then it doesnt mean his faction is OP it simply means I don't care enough to use the appropriate build
I loled for a moment when I saw SEA, I was thinking why the hell does the principality of Sealand matter. But I digresses it looks pretty balance to me I guess without looking at the lower leagues.
While these stats look fine, they should show the win % of short games versus long games won in each match up. Terran tend to lose longer games, while P and Z tend to do much better, which makes playing Terran very boring because you're forced to end the game fast.
Pretty interesting to see how different each region is
The stats show that Zerg is OP in 3 out of 4 regions. Not surprising - this is something the community suspected aleady.
You and your stupid posts is the reason why TL sucks. Stop bolding your stupid opinions....
To be fair he probably meant to say zerg is winning I'm 3 out if 4 regions which isn't so much an opinion as a fact (only assuming he meant winning because the races can't really be OP in a single region, doesn't make sense.)
I am in no way skilled enough to be able to tell if a race is OP, but, the top 1000 or so zerg might just be more skilled than the top 1000 toss, or something like that do you can't really lower the test group numbers too much, this is the best measure for now. Probably the best measure plausible without master and grandmaster leagues.
These numbers aren't unreasonable. I'd certainly like to see some changes, but only so that the way the game plays out changes rather than the balance.
zealots? kites to no end. stalkers? utterly pwned. colossus? sniped easymode. ht? ineffective. sentries? can force field, only works in big fights. void rays? just raze their entire base before they can kill the marauders, or get a marine.
they should get the win percentages for like the top 200 in each region rather than just each regions diamond league. There are plenty of bad players in diamond.
On November 08 2010 10:18 The_Voidless wrote: I loled for a moment when I saw SEA, I was thinking why the hell does the principality of Sealand matter. But I digresses it looks pretty balance to me I guess without looking at the lower leagues.
Probably because there are players playing on it, you dolt.
On November 08 2010 10:57 ci_esteban wrote: You and your stupid posts is the reason why TL sucks. Stop bolding your stupid opinions....
Quality post m8. Instead of flaming somebody outright, why don't you provide a constructive criticism and debate his points? It's garbage responses like yours that adds nothing to TL and lowers the overall quality of discussion.
If a player's skill rating and league are determined by their wins and losses, then stats on win/loss percentages at a particular skill rating mean nothing.
Think of it this way, if they nerfed Protoss into the ground by halving the shields and life points of every unit, then for a while Protoss would lose every match. Then, higher skilled Protoss players would start beating lower skilled Zerg and Terran players despite the massive handicap. Then Battle.Net looks at Huk and assign him a skill rating of :mid gold level:. Then Blizzard run the stats and find that Huk is a mid gold player winning 50% of his matches. Balance achieved!
It's not just a matchmaking problem, it's a circular argument. Protoss win 50% of their matches at this skill level = A player's skill level is determined by where they start winning 50% of their matches.
There are a few things that slightly improve the situation: 1) random players since they can maintain their 'skill level' by winning more with one or two of the races. 2) The very, very top since you can maintain a win% higher than 50% (there might be more of a particular race here) 3) The very, very bottom where you can maintain a win% below 50% (there might be more of a particular race here) 4) some other measure of player skill that doesn't entirely depend on wins vs losses (apm? resources? game score?)
Just to reiterate: saying that they've removed the matchmaking bias is all well and good but unless Blizzard have a method of determining player skill that doesn't depend on wins/losses (e.g. apm, game score, whatever) you'll still get statistics that are heavily biased in favour of balance.
On November 08 2010 09:57 Qikz wrote: I'm not suprised about Zerg in Europe.
I play Terran and literally everyone you find is a zerg now, it's hard not to get a lot of TvZ Practice and it's harder to get beaten by what seems to be the only race you come across.
Your post is a good example of why accurately talking about balance is hard.
Those Zergs (if you're a high diamond player?) used to play ZvT in more than half of their games so they should be good at it - contradicting what you're saying. I used to play in the top 200 rating-wise (according to sc2ranks.com) on EU - statistics were showing that ~50% of the players at that level were Terran and I as a Zerg have to this date surely played more ZvT than ZvZ, ZvR and ZvP combined (haven't been playing since midish September and back then the Terran domination was pretty extreme ^^).
The result was that I lost a lot of ZvP and ZvZ but won a lot of ZvT - but that still doesn't mean that ZvT was anything but the hardest match up even if my personal statistics said otherwise.
There are so very many variables to take into account when discussing balance. Statistics shouldn't be completely disregarded but most important is analyses of single games on a huge scale imo.
On November 07 2010 17:33 blade55555 wrote: I really wish they released these back before the first balance patch. Would have been interesting to see tvz win %.
So it looks like Protoss is slightly underpowered but TvZ is around even (50.5%). That's not that bad considering T>Z (52-53%), Z>P (54%) and PvT (51%) roughly historically in professional BW.
After reading through the replies that people have given, I'm astonished at the number of stupid posts that go a little something like this:
"Well, that obviously proves that X is OP!"
or
"Well, that obviously proves that X is UP!"
The numbers don't indicate balance issues -.-' You need to expect variation (not perfect 50/50). Stop QQing.
Quite frankly, I'm pleased with how close the percentages are. It shows that Blizzard is doing a pretty damn good job so early on in the game's life.
If a race was 30/70 all across the board in a match-up, then I'd be concerned.
I think people who have trouble with playing against certain races or builds should focus on strategies and asking for help, rather than insisting on buffs and nerfs.
On November 08 2010 13:48 andrewlt wrote: So it looks like Protoss is slightly underpowered but TvZ is around even (50.5%). That's not that bad considering T>Z (52-53%), Z>P (54%) and PvT (51%) roughly historically in professional BW.
yeah but bw is so different. the only matchup that sometimes looks similar is TvZ imo. PvZ only in a few cases. sangho made it look pretty similar. PvT is nothing like bw.
anyway, blizz does a great job with their balancing I really trust in those guys to do a good job also in the future.
What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill.
I find this to be a hilarious statement. A rating is a measure of your performance, skill is something completely difference. A rating depends on multiple factors including Skill, matchup, conditions(maps), and other factors(maybe a player is really good at laddering or at 4 gating, but bad in lategame)
I've tried to think of any formula that is possible to use in this situation, but here is the problem. They are using a bayesian algorithm. Bayes predicts winning odds against another player. So when the system believes that you should win and you lose, then either 1. You aren't as good as the system thinks 2. Your opponent is better than the system thinks 3. There is recent change which has caused the system to change.
There is no other information that can be gathered.
When blizzard releases their magic formula please let me know.
What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill.
I find this to be a hilarious statement. A rating is a measure of your performance, skill is something completely difference. A rating depends on multiple factors including Skill, matchup, conditions(maps), and other factors(maybe a player is really good at laddering or at 4 gating, but bad in lategame)
I've tried to think of any formula that is possible to use in this situation, but here is the problem. They are using a bayesian algorithm. Bayes predicts winning odds against another player. So when the system believes that you should win and you lose, then either 1. You aren't as good as the system thinks 2. Your opponent is better than the system thinks 3. There is recent change which has caused the system to change.
There is no other information that can be gathered.
When blizzard releases their magic formula please let me know.
they released the formula @blizzcon, havn't they ?
What's an adjusted win percentage? Well, while the math behind calculating an adjusted win percentage is extremely complex, an adjusted win percentage can be summed up as the 'true' win percentage of a given race, produced by removing the skewing effects of the matchmaker and factoring in player skill.
I find this to be a hilarious statement. A rating is a measure of your performance, skill is something completely difference. A rating depends on multiple factors including Skill, matchup, conditions(maps), and other factors(maybe a player is really good at laddering or at 4 gating, but bad in lategame)
I've tried to think of any formula that is possible to use in this situation, but here is the problem. They are using a bayesian algorithm. Bayes predicts winning odds against another player. So when the system believes that you should win and you lose, then either 1. You aren't as good as the system thinks 2. Your opponent is better than the system thinks 3. There is recent change which has caused the system to change.
There is no other information that can be gathered.
When blizzard releases their magic formula please let me know.
On November 08 2010 12:09 HughJorgen wrote: If a player's skill rating and league are determined by their wins and losses, then stats on win/loss percentages at a particular skill rating mean nothing.
Think of it this way, if they nerfed Protoss into the ground by halving the shields and life points of every unit, then for a while Protoss would lose every match. Then, higher skilled Protoss players would start beating lower skilled Zerg and Terran players despite the massive handicap. Then Battle.Net looks at Huk and assign him a skill rating of :mid gold level:. Then Blizzard run the stats and find that Huk is a mid gold player winning 50% of his matches. Balance achieved!
It's not just a matchmaking problem, it's a circular argument. Protoss win 50% of their matches at this skill level = A player's skill level is determined by where they start winning 50% of their matches.
There are a few things that slightly improve the situation: 1) random players since they can maintain their 'skill level' by winning more with one or two of the races. 2) The very, very top since you can maintain a win% higher than 50% (there might be more of a particular race here) 3) The very, very bottom where you can maintain a win% below 50% (there might be more of a particular race here) 4) some other measure of player skill that doesn't entirely depend on wins vs losses (apm? resources? game score?)
Just to reiterate: saying that they've removed the matchmaking bias is all well and good but unless Blizzard have a method of determining player skill that doesn't depend on wins/losses (e.g. apm, game score, whatever) you'll still get statistics that are heavily biased in favour of balance.
We can use average points to make sure that what you're proposing isn't true.
2 Players with equal skills, and one no matching the other.
But yeah... it's totally balanced ?
Nowadays I play random and I enjoy zerg in team for their speed and techswitching. This race is way too powerfull. They should nerf the speed bonus given to speedling.
Look two basics units : 4 speedgling : outrun reaper, cost almost the same. But you need factory to research the speed upgrade for reapers...
No wonder why TLO switch to take zerg, he is a smart and creative players, and see that now zerg : 1) can fast expand without any troubles, 2) have the fastest units, the best mapcontrol, 3) fungalgrowth and badling own m&m ball, as well as speedling/roach, 4) better eco... (can make like 12 drones at the same time)
Face it, zerg is currently the best race, and it's more apparent in team game ( I almost never loose as zerg, went 9-1 in 2vs2 with a friend in gold league.)
If no furthers changes are made, I will play with the imbalance in my side. =) Nowadays, since reaper speed nerf, and roach up, fast expand is way too easy, and zerg have some really cost effective units (zerglings, roach, badling etc)
Queen do very fine against fast banshee or voidray.
I just want to say, these statistics are essentially useless for balance discussion, the fact is the majority of diamond players arent on the same level as the pros. I dont care if race X is winning 70 percent of games vs race Y in low diamond, it doesnt mean anything unless it is also the case at the highest level of play.
Not sure why everyone is trying to draw balance conclusions from these. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall diamond TvZ prepatch being ~50% and yet I doubt you'd find anyone credible saying it was balanced.
Diamond, a league which ranges from 6poolers to 4gaters to decent players to pros, is not really representative of anything.
The last patch changed a lot of the matchups and obviously new tactics are emerging on the different regions. It shows what a big difference the last patch made though but we already knew that.
I don't understand why blizzard posts these with no context, this just ends up as a way to say X is OP even if some of the statistics are wildly different on each server. Top 200 server or top 200 world would be a a better sample because just being diamond in general does not mean your good.
Are these numbers really correct? Since these are Diamond statistics and I am a mid-Diamond Terran player I am surprised that the stats are so balanced. It does not align with my personal experience at all.
I win about 75% of my games vs Zerg and about 25% of my games vs Protoss. Ie playing against Zerg is easy on most maps and playing vs Protoss is a total nightmare. I wonder if my personal experience is unique or if other mid-Diamond players have a similar experience?
If there is one things to take from this data its this: Its really awesome blizzard actually released this data. Surprising, in fact. However, its hard to say whose data should be considered most when determining who is playing what right and wrong, and overall skill levels. But the fact that no matchup is more imbalanced then 2.6% on Korean server is kind of amazing.
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
(80+80+40)/3 = 66.6% You = 1,858 points. Won 442, lost 398 (52.62% wins)
Can you explain where the disparity is?
If I solve this, you must play vs Zerg 68.45% of the time, and vs the other two races 15.78% of the time. Is that literally your claim?
I've actually been offracing, I lost about 300 points playing zerg and random over the last 2-3 weeks. And obviously my game history from the beginning of the game isn't going to show anything post-1.1.2. Kind of weird data you're using there.
Edit: as I said before, I also manage to get decent win rates vs Z by 5rax allining, which is why I qualified my post above with "unless I cheese allin".
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
These stats are garbage given the range of ranking, there could easily be vastly different winrates <1500, 1500-2000, 2000+ etc in just one region( those are generalisations really ), does it matter in balance if <1500 pt diamonds are winning/losing in certain matchups, or even <2000 ?
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
(80+80+40)/3 = 66.6% You = 1,858 points. Won 442, lost 398 (52.62% wins)
Can you explain where the disparity is?
If I solve this, you must play vs Zerg 68.45% of the time, and vs the other two races 15.78% of the time. Is that literally your claim?
:Owned lol the chill smackdown.
Except his stats make no sense at all and were completely reaching.
The stats he used make perfect sense. To have achieved a win rate of 80% vs Toss and Terran, a 40% win rate against Zerg, and a 52.62% win rate overall (your win rate) you would have to have played against Zerg 68.45% of the time.
This is a highly unlikely event, especially given that Zerg is the least-played race on the ladder, you should only be running into Zerg approx. 28% of the time.
5 rax isn't cheese, btw, it's (apparently) a winning strategy against Zerg.
since patch i feel the game is much more balanced (i am Z). No more loss to T with half the APM. If i loose nowadays, its mostly because i f*ckd up or get outplayed. In the beginning it felt horrible as i often lost to much worse T players. A lot of T got demoted or dropped down in ranks. I get much better Ts (regarding apm) nowadays. Took some time until the patch effect reflected on ladder.
Everytime Blizzard releases these win percentages, a new balance war is started.
THESE MEAN NOTHING OUT OF CONTEXT. You (probably) lost because you were WORSE than your opponent. Get over it, and learn to play better. If your convictions are correct about an imba race, when they are patched, you will own them extra hard. I'm not saying don't ever talk about balance, but 99% of the time, its your fault, not your or their units.
I seriously think that Blizzard just throws these out there to stir the pot and distract from other things.
These stats don't mean anything unless there is a consistent out-lier in each of the regions (like 60%), because the MM system tries to make it as close to 50% as possible.
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
oGsMC (P) Q. Protoss isn’t doing very well. A. In in-house leagues, I feel that protoss is very hard to play. Zerg became stronger, and PvT became more of a build order risk.
sCfOu (T) Q. Your goal for this season? A. I want to advance to the finals. I think I should be fine as long as I don’t play zergs. After the patch, TvZ became too difficult.
cOreZenith (P) Q. Protoss hasn’t been doing well in the last 2 seasons. A. They have to nerf marauders. They should also return the old range of 3 to roaches. I also wish they would bring back the old zealots. Protoss is so hard.
TSL_GuineaPig (P) Q. How were this season’s qualifiers? A. I played a mirror match-up 3 times. I had to play my weakest PvZ so I thought I would fail, but I’m glad that I won.
NEXChoa (P) Q. Are you confident about the main event? A. I’m confident in PvT but playing against zerg is difficult. I want to avoid PvZ’s as much as possible.
Cyrano (P) Q. What is your goal this season? A. My goal was to go through the qualifiers, but I’m greedier now. I want to make it to the round of 32 at least and play against a zerg rather than a protoss. I’m worried that all zerg players are very good though.
MekaPrime (T) Q. It feels like your TvZ has gotten worse. A. I regret the fact that I didn’t practice enough, but games can go either way, so I shouldn’t be disappointed by it.
IMJunwiPrime (Z) Q. You chose zerg after playing random. A. I was initially going to qualify as terran, but I couldn’t handle TvT. I then tried to play protoss, but PvZ was too difficult. So zerg was the only race left. I actually registered as protoss, but changed to zerg at the last minute. My protoss teammates hate me for that.
GuMihofOu (R) Q. Is there a race that you are better at? A. The zerg is doing well recently and it’s my most confident race. It tends to change every patch.
jookToJung (Z) Q. What do you think about the zerg buff in the recent patch? A. I personally can't believe the current balance in TvZ right now, zerg is way too overpowered.
aLivefOu (T) Q. Are you confident about the main event? A. I already told people that if I make it through today, I will get Code S and advance to the final. I think I can even win if I refine my TvZ.
FOX_Bless a.k.a. Lyn (T) Q. Did you refine your TvP? A. It's my most confident match-up. People around me know me for my TvP, but I lost last time, because I made a mistake.
IMmvp (T) Q. You're known to have very strong TvZ. A. After I got knocked out, I became a 'terran QQ'. TvZ is very difficult, actually, TvP is very difficult too. I want 'terran QQ' to be my concept.
SlayerS_BoxeR (T) Q. We are expecting a strong showing from zergs this season. A. Zergs found a way to win even with smaller sample of representation. Now, more zergs are participating, because zerg became better. I hope that trend continues, so that the development team realizes something is wrong. I really hope zergs have a strong showing, but I hope I'm not one of their preys.
ST_Steak a.k.a. JulyZerg (Z) Q. The patch must have helped the zergs. A. I think the balance right now is fine, but other terrans and protosses don't seem to think so. You have to admit that zerg was underpowered in the beginning. Terran and protoss should be able to adjust as time passes, just like zerg did.
CheckPrime (Z) Q. You were one of the bigger 'zerg QQ's. A. I got flamed too much, so I think I'll stay quiet for now. I heard that zerg has qualified the most so far, so I guess zerg is strong now.
NEXGenius (P) Q. What makes it so hard to play? A. Terrans are grabbing timing windows too quickly. They don't let the protoss be alone in the early game. Zerg is hard to play against because of the recent patch.
Fruitdealer says PvT, the P needs a buff at the season 2 qualifiers when sSKS failed to qualify
sSKS and SangHo thinks TvP is OP, in fact in the GOM TV Clan Special [http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=166818] sSKS got 1st place inside TSL by defeating SangHo in the finals AS Terran and says , "terrans op"
Fruitdealer says zerg is op in GSL S3 Interview After Ro64 win
KyrixZenith says zerg is op when he won GSL All-Stars
HongUnPrime says zerg roaches are over powered with recent buff
sSKS and InCa said they were considering changing race because of imbalance in Gisado's stream chat (not sure how serious they were, they COULD have been joking around, I personally think they were)
On November 08 2010 09:35 iEchoic wrote: These numbers are completely meaningless, and would be no matter what the numbers are. For example, I could never win a TvZ in a Bo3 against an equally-skilled player but I win 75% on ladder by 5rax allining with SCVs because that's the only chance I have and it works as long as I never have to play the person again.
Ah will thats why your always going to struggle in tvz. If all you do is all in no wonder you suck at the match up lol don't blame balance ^^.
I practice in customs TvZ all the time. Despite practicing TvZ many many hours I still can't beat equally-skilled players. There's no point feeding people wins on ladder so I might as well 5rax allin.
Your post makes no sense. What makes you think you can tell who is equally skilled?
I play plenty of random players and I crush their T and P and lose to their Z, and they tell me themselves they're not any better at zerg. On ladder I win literally like 80-90% of my TvT and TvP and like 40% of my TvZ (unless I cheese allin).
(80+80+40)/3 = 66.6% You = 1,858 points. Won 442, lost 398 (52.62% wins)
Can you explain where the disparity is?
If I solve this, you must play vs Zerg 68.45% of the time, and vs the other two races 15.78% of the time. Is that literally your claim?
Even if IEchoic's stats are true, they would actually show that TvP is horribly T favored and TvZ is either balanced or slightly Z favored. See what happens when you try to pass off anecdotal evidence as real evidence?
Again these numbers are arbitrary, and by no means biased, but something like that would also be a good indicator of the state of balance, and possibly why it feels that way.
oGsMC (P) Q. Protoss isn’t doing very well. A. In in-house leagues, I feel that protoss is very hard to play. Zerg became stronger, and PvT became more of a build order risk.
sCfOu (T) Q. Your goal for this season? A. I want to advance to the finals. I think I should be fine as long as I don’t play zergs. After the patch, TvZ became too difficult.
cOreZenith (P) Q. Protoss hasn’t been doing well in the last 2 seasons. A. They have to nerf marauders. They should also return the old range of 3 to roaches. I also wish they would bring back the old zealots. Protoss is so hard.
TSL_GuineaPig (P) Q. How were this season’s qualifiers? A. I played a mirror match-up 3 times. I had to play my weakest PvZ so I thought I would fail, but I’m glad that I won.
NEXChoa (P) Q. Are you confident about the main event? A. I’m confident in PvT but playing against zerg is difficult. I want to avoid PvZ’s as much as possible.
Cyrano (P) Q. What is your goal this season? A. My goal was to go through the qualifiers, but I’m greedier now. I want to make it to the round of 32 at least and play against a zerg rather than a protoss. I’m worried that all zerg players are very good though.
MekaPrime (T) Q. It feels like your TvZ has gotten worse. A. I regret the fact that I didn’t practice enough, but games can go either way, so I shouldn’t be disappointed by it.
IMJunwiPrime (Z) Q. You chose zerg after playing random. A. I was initially going to qualify as terran, but I couldn’t handle TvT. I then tried to play protoss, but PvZ was too difficult. So zerg was the only race left. I actually registered as protoss, but changed to zerg at the last minute. My protoss teammates hate me for that.
GuMihofOu (R) Q. Is there a race that you are better at? A. The zerg is doing well recently and it’s my most confident race. It tends to change every patch.
jookToJung (Z) Q. What do you think about the zerg buff in the recent patch? A. I personally can't believe the current balance in TvZ right now, zerg is way too overpowered.
aLivefOu (T) Q. Are you confident about the main event? A. I already told people that if I make it through today, I will get Code S and advance to the final. I think I can even win if I refine my TvZ.
FOX_Bless a.k.a. Lyn (T) Q. Did you refine your TvP? A. It's my most confident match-up. People around me know me for my TvP, but I lost last time, because I made a mistake.
IMmvp (T) Q. You're known to have very strong TvZ. A. After I got knocked out, I became a 'terran QQ'. TvZ is very difficult, actually, TvP is very difficult too. I want 'terran QQ' to be my concept.
SlayerS_BoxeR (T) Q. We are expecting a strong showing from zergs this season. A. Zergs found a way to win even with smaller sample of representation. Now, more zergs are participating, because zerg became better. I hope that trend continues, so that the development team realizes something is wrong. I really hope zergs have a strong showing, but I hope I'm not one of their preys.
ST_Steak a.k.a. JulyZerg (Z) Q. The patch must have helped the zergs. A. I think the balance right now is fine, but other terrans and protosses don't seem to think so. You have to admit that zerg was underpowered in the beginning. Terran and protoss should be able to adjust as time passes, just like zerg did.
CheckPrime (Z) Q. You were one of the bigger 'zerg QQ's. A. I got flamed too much, so I think I'll stay quiet for now. I heard that zerg has qualified the most so far, so I guess zerg is strong now.
NEXGenius (P) Q. What makes it so hard to play? A. Terrans are grabbing timing windows too quickly. They don't let the protoss be alone in the early game. Zerg is hard to play against because of the recent patch.
Fruitdealer says PvT, the P needs a buff at the season 2 qualifiers when sSKS failed to qualify
sSKS and SangHo thinks TvP is OP, in fact in the GOM TV Clan Special [http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=166818] sSKS got 1st place inside TSL by defeating SangHo in the finals AS Terran and says , "terrans op"
Fruitdealer says zerg is op in GSL S3 Interview After Ro64 win
KyrixZenith says zerg is op when he won GSL All-Stars
HongUnPrime says zerg roaches are over powered with recent buff
sSKS and InCa said they were considering changing race because of imbalance in Gisado's stream chat (not sure how serious they were, they COULD have been joking around, I personally think they were)
Everyone in those interviews is biased. Now XvZ became harder to play, but that does not mean much about game balance.
Fruitdealer said zerg is op just as a joke, you can't take that serious.
On November 26 2010 15:09 Amui wrote: If they could release win ratio's by both matchup and elapsed time, it could give a bigger insight into what is suspected.
Again these numbers are arbitrary, and by no means biased, but something like that would also be a good indicator of the state of balance, and possibly why it feels that way.
Why not take this whole thing a step further and make graphs of win % vs time? This would be absolutely amazing for both players themselves and blizzard. I really do not like when 1 number is supposed to mean something. Okay fine it's 3 numbers.
On November 07 2010 17:26 blade55555 wrote: thats actually really interesting how zerg has a better win% on NA but Euro is complete opposite (55.0% tvz wow) and 51% pvz isn't too bad thats really close to 50% but this obviously is counting all diamond games not just top top player games but still interesting to see ^^.
Thanks for posting
You wouldn't say that if you saw how most zergs (even in diamond!) play on the Euro server.
Wow every single matchup flips majority winners across the regions. Very impressive balancing by Blizzard. I'm sure many of us have our wishes but from here on out I think it will be very difficult to prove the necessity of a desired change. Also, you can see how hard it must be for Blizzard with people QQing very differently based on region.
EDIT: Hope we can see some map info because that is the pressing issue right now, rather than races.
Wish they would give a closer break down instead of taking diamond as a whole, maybe break it down into 200-500pt segments would be interesting to see how the threads are then.
I would like to see it broken down on a per-map and skill-rating basis as well, I think that might offer additional insights. Overall, very impressive balancing though, no glaring imbalances in win percentages
Because people with similar win ratio get grouped with other players with similar win ratio etc it would also be interesting to see how the ratio of the different races in the diamond league. How high percentage of the diamond league players play what race?
And as Ive already said, It's be interesting what maps races usually thumb down and the win rates on them.
I still don't understand how they get these numbers and "adjust for player skills". Shouldn't these numbers be very close to 50 percent because of how the ladder works?
Anyway, the only thing I see if the numbers are legit,is that it's pretty well balanced for now.