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branflakes14
2082 Posts
On May 06 2011 06:59 Voltaire wrote: I wonder what Idra will have to say if Nestea wins this GSL.. If Nestea wins, he outclassed his opponents completely. If anyone else wins, their race was why they won. | ||
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MonsieurGrimm
Canada2441 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:01 MrCon wrote:  I don't get where you see any blind counter in this. (perhaps in TvZ ? but no, even in TvZ I don't see what that means in practice). Unless you think nestea blind countered something ? He reacted. Losira same. Sheth yesterday same. Vibe yesterday same. Allins are only standard until the other race can defend it a good % of the time. And that mean that when allin are not effective anymore, that's because the other race builds have changed (in general for something less greedy). I don't like examples but we can assume the timeline of ZvP evolution would be this : - protoss stomping zergs with deathball - zergs starts to be aggressive early, stomping toss (current situation in GSL and NASL) - toss has to play defensively, so gets deathball later and can't take a 3rd as easily as before (expected development) (we're not yet here) - a new equilibrium is found, where both races can play a macro game, both races knowing that if they cut corners they take the risk to die early - .....(new builds are found, well, the matchup still evolve) Currently zergs refuse to accept the 2nd part is necessary to attain their ultimate goal : 100% of mAcRo GaMeS. The problem is that zerg standard can't defend some allins from the other two races (biggest one I can think of is the nexus-cancel into 5gate). You need to blind counter that and make a bunch of units/spines or you risk dying to it. Every single zerg I've seen who went up against that either blind countered it or died to it. ZvT earlygame is in a decent place right now, although it's still very hard to tell between a marine/scv all-in and an expand. But ZvP earlygame is so ambiguous it isn't funny. | ||
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FighterHayabusa
United States90 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:16 Mordiford wrote: I wouldn't agree there though, because it's not something that is clearly broken, if there were a guessing game involved in this sense, considering the openings available, you'd have something like a 20% chance of getting it right. Even with some wiggle room in the scene, the win rate would be substantially lower with something inherently broken. I don't think it's a situation where Zerg's success is decided by luck over skill, at all... They'd all have to be retardedly lucky to have the win-rate they currently have. You are making the assumption that the defense for all these builds are mutually exclusive, and that isn't the case. While there is more than likely an optimal defense for every build, that doesn't mean that there isn't overlap. IE. Certain zerg openings can defend against a wide variety of these builds, but none will defend them all. The win rate being 50% doesn't mean there isn't a problem there. I'm an actuary, probability is the realm I live in, and I'm telling you that these win rates prove nothing either way. | ||
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Beef Noodles
United States937 Posts
On May 06 2011 00:08 raf3776 wrote: wait. why say isolated events arent the best evidence but than bring up an isolated event lol That was the point. You can use isolated events to prove anything. | ||
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DarkenedLite
United States188 Posts
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Whitewing
United States7483 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:24 DarkenedLite wrote: Sack an Overlord? In the early game, there shouldn't be enough stalkers or marines that you can't scout their tech if you do it effectively. This is wrong, one or two marines or a stalker or two can do the job if the tech is hidden in a good spot. | ||
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Mailing
United States3087 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:19 branflakes14 wrote: If Nestea wins, he outclassed his opponents completely. If anyone else wins, their race was why they won. NesTea barely made it into the GSL by beating Jinro twice and avoiding San while losing to Clide He then gets Fruit -> way outclassed Anypro -> way outclassed sc -> probably will out class Inca and Nada -> will out class NesTea should not lose this GSL now, the stars aligned. | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:25 Whitewing wrote: This is wrong, one or two marines or a stalker or two can do the job if the tech is hidden in a good spot. Again thats a function of the main's size. | ||
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Mordiford
4448 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:22 FighterHayabusa wrote: You are making the assumption that the defense for all these builds are mutually exclusive, and that isn't the case. While there is more than likely an optimal defense for every build, that doesn't mean that there isn't overlap. IE. Certain zerg openings can defend against a wide variety of these builds, but none will defend them all. The win rate being 50% doesn't mean there isn't a problem there. I'm an actuary, probability is the realm I live in, and I'm telling you that these win rates prove nothing either way. But what do we have to suggest that this is a problem? You have a set of builds that are completely defensive but gives you a minor setback, but Zergs don't want to do that. There are builds that are risky that work when your opponent is taking the opposite risk. There are a number of things you have to prove on your way to proving that this is a problem... An actuary, that's pretty cool, I'm a statistician for NASA... Seriously, if you can explain to me why these win rates are irrelevant that would more helpful then simply stating that they're irrelevant. Either way, the result would be Zergs have substantially less chance to win since they have a major disadvantage the other races don't have, unless every Zerg player happens to be ten times better than the players of other races, which once again, there's no way to prove, and once again I don't think that's the case. | ||
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Tabbris
Bangladesh2839 Posts
On May 06 2011 06:52 DarkenedLite wrote: I'd like to sum up my response to IdrA's idea that the Zerg lacks scouting opportunities in the mid to late game with one word. Changeling. He said early game my god ppl are dumb | ||
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SovSov
United States755 Posts
Day9 - Pretentious IdrA - Whiny Tyler - Prideful InControl - Argumentative Machine - IdrA's brainwashing project Tasteless - Baller JP - Greedy enough to sit back and let this all happen cuz he is making $$$$ off of it | ||
NonY
8751 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:02 Archerofaiur wrote: How about maps with smaller mains? also high ground on the edges of bases to protect overlords | ||
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fishjie
United States1519 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:19 branflakes14 wrote: If Nestea wins, he outclassed his opponents completely. If anyone else wins, their race was why they won. nailed it perfectly | ||
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Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:35 Liquid`Tyler wrote: also high ground on the edges of bases to protect overlords Exactly. Small map tweaks like this can go a long way towards solving this alleged "problem". | ||
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jmbthirteen
United States10734 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:35 Liquid`Tyler wrote: also high ground on the edges of bases to protect overlords I think we should just Zerg players complete vision of our base. | ||
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vojnik
Macedonia923 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:35 Liquid`Tyler wrote: also high ground on the edges of bases to protect overlords i dont know if this was sarcastic or not but i like the idea :D | ||
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Sylverin
United States480 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:35 Liquid`Tyler wrote: also high ground on the edges of bases to protect overlords Like Lost Temple?  that's a good idea though, you should totally email dustin :D | ||
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Crazyeyes
Canada1342 Posts
You know, it's actually possible for that to be true. ;P | ||
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Madkipz
Norway1643 Posts
well tbh if you have seen Nestea play then its not hard to see why such a conclution can be made. | ||
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Chicane
United States7875 Posts
On May 06 2011 07:26 Mailing wrote: NesTea barely made it into the GSL by beating Jinro twice and avoiding San while losing to Clide He then gets Fruit -> way outclassed Anypro -> way outclassed sc -> probably will out class Inca and Nada -> will out class NesTea should not lose this GSL now, the stars aligned. You know... the thing I have always hated about this argument... more specifically that the zerg player is just outclassing their opponents, and their opponents are being carried by their race... is it makes me wonder... Where are all the protoss/terran players who would be good zerg players? Let me put it this way... why are all the players who are capable of playing an underpowered race and overcoming the obstacles all playing zerg? Do you see what I am getting at? It seems like (according to many zerg players) none of the protoss or terran players would ever dream of being a good zerg player. It just so happens that all of the most amazing players are zerg, and they are only playing at around the same level as the other 2 races because they are zerg. Yet again in other words... it just so happened that the people with "the most skill" are all zerg, because if not then that player would be crushing everyone. So not one of these top level players is terran or protoss? Or are they? Who? MVP? MC? I can't word it as well as I wanted... so I'll just leave it at that and see if I get a response. | ||
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