EPT2024 - 2026 Football Thread - Page 23
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
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aseq
Netherlands3978 Posts
On November 07 2024 07:46 WombaT wrote: My other main concern is competitive integrity in a combined league format The real contenders are likely to be guaranteed some kind of spot in the top 8, with rounds to spare. I definitely foresee a scenario where a real top, top elite team if not sending out a B team, isn’t really arsed for a fixture, so some team pulls out a win they maybe wouldn’t have a shot for, whereas another team maybe misses out because their opponent has something to play for This is further exacerbated by this format adding games to an already busy calendar I think this was much, much worse in the old format! Real or PSG would field an entire B-team once they were on 9-12 points. Many groups would be 12-9-3-0 after 4 games. But the last game could be controversial (Ajax 2011) as scores were clear. This year, you can be pretty safe of advancing after 6 games if you do well, but making top8 certainly isn't easy at all. ESPN made a mock group stage here. Only 2 teams are guaranteed top8 after 7! games. And because even finishing 1st or 2nd means an easier bracket, almost all teams have something to play for in the last round (only 3 were out). | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4231 Posts
On November 07 2024 07:46 WombaT wrote: My other main concern is competitive integrity in a combined league format The real contenders are likely to be guaranteed some kind of spot in the top 8, with rounds to spare. I definitely foresee a scenario where a real top, top elite team if not sending out a B team, isn’t really arsed for a fixture, so some team pulls out a win they maybe wouldn’t have a shot for, whereas another team maybe misses out because their opponent has something to play for This is further exacerbated by this format adding games to an already busy calendar They are not guaranteed that. Unless all big teams underperform somehow, you already have 4 of the potential top 8 clubs needing wins (Bayern, city, psg, RM). Fight for top8 will be a thing for 6 or 7 of the teams there. Also qualification wise, teams will be on the verge of top 8 or trying their best to go high in qualification space to get a weaker opponent in the playoff. Point margins are so small they will need the win because 3 pts might be a difference between being out or reaching top half playoff team spot (not top8 tho). Again this is based on many simulations, real life might prove different but in theory the concerns listed should not come to pass. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6934 Posts
On November 07 2024 07:46 WombaT wrote: My other main concern is competitive integrity in a combined league format The real contenders are likely to be guaranteed some kind of spot in the top 8, with rounds to spare. I definitely foresee a scenario where a real top, top elite team if not sending out a B team, isn’t really arsed for a fixture, so some team pulls out a win they maybe wouldn’t have a shot for, whereas another team maybe misses out because their opponent has something to play for This is further exacerbated by this format adding games to an already busy calendar I don't see that yet. Sure some teams may have no chance of qualifying anymore but those teams would be dead in the water anyway and just play for the funsies. On the top end though, this seems like very much a fight till the last second and be it just for better placement in the KO stages | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28674 Posts
Liverpool, even though their next game is home vs RM, is still likely to have 18 points, which is almost certainly securing top 8. Barcelona has also looked amazing lately and I can picture them winning their next 3 (vs Brest, Dortmund and Benfica). But City, RM, Bayern, Arsenal are all currently outside the top 8 - neither of those teams will have secured the spot before the final play day. PSG is currently outside the top 24 even, and they have games vs City and Bayern - as well as Stuttgart away remaining. Anyway: Looking at simulations from CM, over 10000 tries they saw that you'd qualify for top 8 with 15 points 42% of the time. In 28% of cases 14 was enough, in 22% you needed 16. Important to note, however, is that this is different from being qualified with 15 before the final round is played. There are probably more teams with 15 points before the final round, and maybe some seasons we see 4 teams running away from the pack, but at least this season, I think it's possible that spots #3-9 are all within reach and that #8-15 are all within reach. Similarly you from those same simulations you need 9 points to get top 24 in 55% of cases, 8 points can be enough 21%, and in 22% you needed 10 points. Now, if we simply double the points teams currently have, we'd get 18 points for top 8 and 10 points for top 24 - but this doesn't account for some currently top 8 teams having played their easier matches. Brest with 10 points have Barcelona away and RM at home remaining, for example - so I think they're very unlikely to end up with more than 17. Also many situations where current top 8 teams face each other, that obviously makes it harder for both to maintain the current point per game average. And thus basically the current top 8 teams - except liverpool - probably need to win their next 3 games to be safe before the final round. I don't think many are going to do that. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25484 Posts
I mean it lasts ages too. While points aren’t meaningless, we’re weeks and weeks in now and we don’t really know quite how impactful yet. I’m enjoying it as some kind of feast of football, with some high quality games but I’m not really gripped by x match being this huge high-stakes thing, because it’s impossible to really parse within this semi-league structure Rory Smith of the New York Times described this restructure as (to paraphrase, ‘Content first, competition second’ and I’m somewhat inclined to agree there. Specifically this league phase He and I, and most others I imagine still consider the knockouts real peak football drama, and they’re still there. | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10170 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28674 Posts
On November 07 2024 22:45 WombaT wrote: I’m not being down on this format, I’m enjoying it thus far I just think the novelty and lack of familiarity of potential downsides hasn’t kicked in. I mean it lasts ages too. While points aren’t meaningless, we’re weeks and weeks in now and we don’t really know quite how impactful yet. I’m enjoying it as some kind of feast of football, with some high quality games but I’m not really gripped by x match being this huge high-stakes thing, because it’s impossible to really parse within this semi-league structure Rory Smith of the New York Times described this restructure as (to paraphrase, ‘Content first, competition second’ and I’m somewhat inclined to agree there. Specifically this league phase He and I, and most others I imagine still consider the knockouts real peak football drama, and they’re still there. I mean obv it is less exciting than knockout stage, I just really prefer it to the previous group stage. Previous group stage was normally a walk in the park for all the top teams, you'd have maybe one group with 3 very good ones. Top teams being knocked out is prolly even less likely now as they are 24 teams qualifying, but top 8 is a real advantage worth fighting for - more than top 1 rather than top 2 was. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4356 Posts
Is he that good? He is clearly destroying in Portugal this year, 16 goals in 10 games is impressive. His European goals from Europa last year and CL this year are roughly 50% penalties, which is much less exciting. Also he seems to score more against weaker opposition both in European competition and for Sweden, at least until the Man City game. | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8665 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51490 Posts
Championship top scorers are good outliers, you have Jared Bowen, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins to name a few, if you scoring 30 plus in that league you normally fair well in the prem, yet no one took him and Everton for example wasted more money on Beto? lol. I think scouts are so bad these days, at least in the premier league and especially at top clubs. Now, what Gyokeres has done at Sporting is not what i expected, i didnt think he would be some 40 goal a season Haaland level striker, but i thought he was a solid 10-15 goal a season prem striker which is still insane if he went somewhere like Everton or West Ham, but now he is really looking elite. Can't see anyone other than Yanited or Arsenal getting him in the summer now. | ||
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
On November 09 2024 22:33 Pandemona wrote: I knew him from championship, he was top scorer, thought for the bottom half of premier league, the price coventry wanted for him (15-20million) he was an utter steal, yet no one signed him and off to Sporting he went. Championship top scorers are good outliers, you have Jared Bowen, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins to name a few, if you scoring 30 plus in that league you normally fair well in the prem, yet no one took him and Everton for example wasted more money on Beto? lol. I think scouts are so bad these days, at least in the premier league and especially at top clubs. Now, what Gyokeres has done at Sporting is not what i expected, i didnt think he would be some 40 goal a season Haaland level striker, but i thought he was a solid 10-15 goal a season prem striker which is still insane if he went somewhere like Everton or West Ham, but now he is really looking elite. Can't see anyone other than Yanited or Arsenal getting him in the summer now. Premier league (English) scouts are really bad imo. Tbh you have bad scouts, bad coaches, bad refs... XD | ||
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
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Bacillus
Finland1942 Posts
On November 10 2024 19:17 sharkie wrote: Will City be able to recover from Rodri's loss? Its crazy how much of peps whole strategy and team build was dependent on him They're still a damn good team, but definitely more vulnerable. I don't think they're necessarily going to go on a 15+ game winning streak after Christmas. I haven't seen many full PL games this season, but seems like Rodri also covered some other issues in City's defense. For example Walker is starting to slow down due to his age and there are some lapses he can no longer cover up with the physique as much as some previous seasons. All that combines into the issues they've got currently. This is also weird situation for Pep probably, might be his first 4 game losing streak or so. We'll see how he reacts. | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4231 Posts
On November 09 2024 13:03 evilfatsh1t wrote: his numbers are impressive this season but theres absolutely zero doubt that the reason hes being hyped is because he plays for sporting and the media want to write stories about how amorim might bring him to united. if amorim wasnt becoming united manager i dont think wed hear much about him at all until we near the transfer window at the end of the season. You are probably right on the timming. He was already chased during the summer but sporting was clear that last year it was release clause value or nothing.....and nobody is going to give 100M for him because that would be ludicrous. On the other hand, most of the times people came to ask for him last year was from united and there were already rumours about Amorim at the time....Amorim has already said he will not take gyokeres with him so he will likely go elsewhere if that wasnt just talking to ease the fans after already taking a hit for their manager leaving. Last year (and this year as well) he is scoring a bunch in Portugal and a lot of that comes from physical ability. He can manhandle our league team's defenses apart from the big teams. But even against those he is getting his gosls (granted a few are PK). I would envision him more in Spain than EPL but he had some success in the championship and has improved since coming to sporting so he might be a good striker there 2. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6934 Posts
On November 10 2024 19:28 Bacillus wrote: This is also weird situation for Pep probably, might be his first 4 game losing streak or so. We'll see how he reacts. It is! The Catalan has lost four consecutive competitive matches for the first time in his career spanning 898 professional games, a feat he never encountered at FC (2008-2012) or Bayern Munich (2013-2016). | ||
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
On November 11 2024 16:45 KobraKay wrote: You are probably right on the timming. He was already chased during the summer but sporting was clear that last year it was release clause value or nothing.....and nobody is going to give 100M for him because that would be ludicrous. On the other hand, most of the times people came to ask for him last year was from united and there were already rumours about Amorim at the time....Amorim has already said he will not take gyokeres with him so he will likely go elsewhere if that wasnt just talking to ease the fans after already taking a hit for their manager leaving. Last year (and this year as well) he is scoring a bunch in Portugal and a lot of that comes from physical ability. He can manhandle our league team's defenses apart from the big teams. But even against those he is getting his gosls (granted a few are PK). I would envision him more in Spain than EPL but he had some success in the championship and has improved since coming to sporting so he might be a good striker there 2. But he would have made more sense than Zirkzee no? | ||
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evilfatsh1t
Australia8665 Posts
On November 11 2024 16:45 KobraKay wrote: You are probably right on the timming. He was already chased during the summer but sporting was clear that last year it was release clause value or nothing.....and nobody is going to give 100M for him because that would be ludicrous. On the other hand, most of the times people came to ask for him last year was from united and there were already rumours about Amorim at the time....Amorim has already said he will not take gyokeres with him so he will likely go elsewhere if that wasnt just talking to ease the fans after already taking a hit for their manager leaving. Last year (and this year as well) he is scoring a bunch in Portugal and a lot of that comes from physical ability. He can manhandle our league team's defenses apart from the big teams. But even against those he is getting his gosls (granted a few are PK). I would envision him more in Spain than EPL but he had some success in the championship and has improved since coming to sporting so he might be a good striker there 2. i think amorims exact words were he wouldnt take any player from sporting in january. he left it open for a transfer to take place at the end of the season so its still possible that he moves. i wouldnt complain for sure; players from sporting have all performed well and been fan favourites at united | ||
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18418 Posts
There is one of the points missing for Liverpool and Klopp. And suddenly city and pep have earned one title less | ||
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