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On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe.  Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments 
invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better
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On September 22 2019 00:24 brickrd wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 00:08 TentativePanda wrote:On September 21 2019 19:13 SamirDuran wrote:
I would like maru to win but trap deserved it after demolishing maru and giving a blueprint on how to beat the new emp How to beat the new EMP: play better and win before EMP upgrade finishes no? disruptors
Let’s think through this. Before the EMP buff, disrupters were not any more common than other Protoss tech paths. Because they weren’t always the best option. All emp did was force Protoss down that tech path because it’s the only one that can reasonably fight against ghosts.
So first thing to note is that disrupters didn’t get any better, they just got more important.
Second thing to note is that Trap made sure to either not let Maru get to upgrade EMP or made sure to have him in a really bad position by the time is was completed.
So yes, he chose the right tech path for when he wanted to close the game before EMP upgrade (no disruptors) and for when he wanted to be in an advantageous position for when EMP upgrade was done (disruptors)
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On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better
I've always hated that argument. If you don't assume that the pool of players are roughly equal in strength (of course individuals may be outliers) there's no way to do balance. In fact even if they aren't equal in strength you should pretend they are and balance accordingly. Who cares if the zerg pool of players is more skilled by some unmeasurable magical metric--I still don't want ZvZs all the time.
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On September 22 2019 00:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better I've always hated that argument. If you don't assume that the pool of players are roughly equal in strength (of course individuals may be outliers) there's no way to do balance. In fact even if they aren't equal in strength you should pretend they are and balance accordingly. Who cares if the zerg pool of players is more skilled by some unmeasurable magical metric--I still don't want ZvZs all the time.
Also I remember during GOMTvT terran players say7ng that terrans are just better and Zerg and Protoss rightfully calling bullshit on that.
Why is it different when terran is underperforming/protoss is overperforming?
You can defend any imbalance by saying "race x has just better playera".
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Trap made a lot of things look imba during that series, but truthfully he just kept hitting perfect timings against what Maru had and at the stage he was at, just really good preparation from Trap
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Northern Ireland26514 Posts
On September 22 2019 01:52 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 00:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better I've always hated that argument. If you don't assume that the pool of players are roughly equal in strength (of course individuals may be outliers) there's no way to do balance. In fact even if they aren't equal in strength you should pretend they are and balance accordingly. Who cares if the zerg pool of players is more skilled by some unmeasurable magical metric--I still don't want ZvZs all the time. Also I remember during GOMTvT terran players say7ng that terrans are just better and Zerg and Protoss rightfully calling bullshit on that. Why is it different when terran is underperforming/protoss is overperforming? You can defend any imbalance by saying "race x has just better playera".
There are times when it’s actually true though, conceivably and especially in such a small pool as S class Koreans.
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On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better
He said the top 20 terrans in aligulac. That's basically every pro/semi pro terran player.
The 20 best players all collectively having TvP as their worst or middle matchup is not a small sample size btw. Like I said, the odds are 0.03%.
You can tell something's too small a sample size if the supposedly outrageous result is reasonable to happen under normal circumstances. 0.03% is not reasonable.
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seems like maru's having hard time with adapting during the series and trap prepared better
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On September 22 2019 05:19 NotSoHappy wrote:
seems like maru's having hard time with adapting during the series and trap prepared better
he might've won if he didn't assume collossi after scanning 2 robo and a bay in game (he immediately queued vikings)
and the dt game, Maru oddly not saving scans. he usually reads these type of situations well and plays safe, but he succumbed to this.
against dts even the gods struggle in vain
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On September 22 2019 04:07 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 01:52 Charoisaur wrote:On September 22 2019 00:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better I've always hated that argument. If you don't assume that the pool of players are roughly equal in strength (of course individuals may be outliers) there's no way to do balance. In fact even if they aren't equal in strength you should pretend they are and balance accordingly. Who cares if the zerg pool of players is more skilled by some unmeasurable magical metric--I still don't want ZvZs all the time. Also I remember during GOMTvT terran players say7ng that terrans are just better and Zerg and Protoss rightfully calling bullshit on that. Why is it different when terran is underperforming/protoss is overperforming? You can defend any imbalance by saying "race x has just better playera". There are times when it’s actually true though, conceivably and especially in such a small pool as S class Koreans.
Possibly but how do you prove it? At that point it's just your personal opinion.
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On September 22 2019 04:45 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better He said the top 20 terrans in aligulac. That's basically every pro/semi pro terran player. The 20 best players all collectively having TvP as their worst or middle matchup is not a small sample size btw. Like I said, the odds are 0.03%. You can tell something's too small a sample size if the supposedly outrageous result is reasonable to happen under normal circumstances. 0.03% is not reasonable.
As I mentioned earlier those ratings have a ton of inertia especially since some top players don't play online much. The most recent patch would barely register in those ratings (and players don't adapt instantly to a patch).
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On September 22 2019 04:45 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better He said the top 20 terrans in aligulac. That's basically every pro/semi pro terran player. The 20 best players all collectively having TvP as their worst or middle matchup is not a small sample size btw. Like I said, the odds are 0.03%. You can tell something's too small a sample size if the supposedly outrageous result is reasonable to happen under normal circumstances. 0.03% is not reasonable.
we need a bit more time to see how the patch effects things.
that may unfortunately mean that after some months tvp is still in a state, but we can't go about things in a rushed manner in case things become broken down the line.
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On September 22 2019 06:46 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 04:45 Fango wrote:On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better He said the top 20 terrans in aligulac. That's basically every pro/semi pro terran player. The 20 best players all collectively having TvP as their worst or middle matchup is not a small sample size btw. Like I said, the odds are 0.03%. You can tell something's too small a sample size if the supposedly outrageous result is reasonable to happen under normal circumstances. 0.03% is not reasonable. As I mentioned earlier those ratings have a ton of inertia especially since some top players don't play online much. The most recent patch would barely register in those ratings (and players don't adapt instantly to a patch).
And, Fango, it's hard to have higher rating against Protoss when their average ranking is significantly lower than Zerg.
Balance has something to do with that, but the correlation is waaay looser than you think.
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Northern Ireland26514 Posts
On September 22 2019 06:23 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2019 04:07 Wombat_NI wrote:On September 22 2019 01:52 Charoisaur wrote:On September 22 2019 00:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On September 22 2019 00:26 brickrd wrote:On September 21 2019 23:45 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:58 tigon_ridge wrote:On September 21 2019 14:52 Fango wrote:On September 21 2019 14:50 tigon_ridge wrote:So after this tournament ends, it will be revealed that the difference between Maru's worst MU and his best MU is literally 400 pts. The biggest gap in a player's MUs in the history of the universe. Is there a single terran that doesn't have TvP drastically lower than their other two matchups? I don't know but I'd be shocked if there was. There isn't a single top20 Terran that has TvP as their best MU, according to their ratings. Ouch... Assuming a balanced state the odds of this happening are 0.03% Sometimes I wish Maru wasn't a thing so people would see how just badly terran does in these tournaments invoking probability but no mention of the fact that the entire korean scene is a meaninglessly small sample size and that it's easily statistically possible the protoss players are actually simply better I've always hated that argument. If you don't assume that the pool of players are roughly equal in strength (of course individuals may be outliers) there's no way to do balance. In fact even if they aren't equal in strength you should pretend they are and balance accordingly. Who cares if the zerg pool of players is more skilled by some unmeasurable magical metric--I still don't want ZvZs all the time. Also I remember during GOMTvT terran players say7ng that terrans are just better and Zerg and Protoss rightfully calling bullshit on that. Why is it different when terran is underperforming/protoss is overperforming? You can defend any imbalance by saying "race x has just better playera". There are times when it’s actually true though, conceivably and especially in such a small pool as S class Koreans. Possibly but how do you prove it? At that point it's just your personal opinion.
*Inserts Big Lebowski gif*
It would be difficult to prove conclusively for sure, it’s a lot easier to do in retrospect.
If a cohort of players of a race produced results they weren’t producing before or after a period considered imbalanced, while not conclusive of anything, it’s probably likely that that period probably didn’t have the best balance.
Looking at the TL community GOAT tournament, the current cohort of S class Protoss players in Korea all placed pretty highly up in that, so that segment of the community does feel a lot of the current crop are at least historically great players. That doesn’t necessarily mean people think they are currently though.
To add yet more fun complexity, ‘race x just has better players’ doesn’t even exist as a straight counter to imbalance, Protoss can have the best crop of players and be unbalanced at the same time.
‘Tis a fun rabbit hole to go down haha.
It does at least appear that Super Tournament was a bit of an anomaly, where folks who hadn’t really made good runs before were crushing it.
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Northern Ireland26514 Posts
Also as an aside there’s so much stylistic variation between Protoss players that it must be a nightmare to face a bunch in succession. From devotees of the Big Protoss Book of Bullshit to a reactive macro player like Stats and everything in between.
Yes I know Protoss can be obnoxious, that specific thing I do like about the race, players give it their own flavour.
Sure Terrans and Zergs don’t all play the same, far from it but there is more similarity than with the Protoss contingent.
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TvP is still toss favored, but toss have it worse with ZvP. Only race that doesn't have a "bad" matchup atm is Zerg. Could be a map issue, balance issue, or both.
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On September 22 2019 23:06 Wombat_NI wrote:
Also as an aside there’s so much stylistic variation between Protoss players that it must be a nightmare to face a bunch in succession. From devotees of the Big Protoss Book of Bullshit to a reactive macro player like Stats and everything in between.
Yes I know Protoss can be obnoxious, that specific thing I do like about the race, players give it their own flavour.
I think thats a big portion too, lastest patches made Terran a very 1 dimensional race: Reaper FE, survive the early game, 2 base push, pray to do enough damage to win from there.
The EMP buff and the stim buff didn't really did much to change, EMP gives a better lategame yeah but the stim buff just makes terran even more 1 dimensional and being so predictable really hurts, protoss has so many choices compared to terran that it can be a big weakness when it comes to the top of the top.
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unexpected result for sure but normally dude wouldve handled late game just fine without focusing around new EMP build.and its been showed dat this build clearly has some weaknesses
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EPT
