Caster's saying that winning first game of BO5/7 creates additional advantage due to (insert factor other than needing to win more games) is something I'm pretty sure we showed largely doesn't happen last time Wolf had put some stats up =/ Sure there are players who crack fast but by and large I think getting this level of success as a pro-gamer requires being able to play past those game 1 losses.
I tried rewatching that PartinG vs Life series last year, but couldn't. Protoss killed the Zerg 3rd and then tried attacking into mass spine/fungal/+1 ling instead of teching to collo. Highest skill era alright.
On September 04 2017 19:28 Ej_ wrote: I tried rewatching that PartinG vs Life series last year, but couldn't. Protoss killed the Zerg 3rd and then tried attacking into mass spine/fungal/+1 ling instead of teching to collo. Highest skill era alright.
This morning I rewatched PartinG vs Life of IEM tappei 2015, mass swarmhosts gave me cancer again.
On September 04 2017 19:56 darklycid wrote: The one time dark doesnt loose 20 workers in the early but plays defensively he very much wins.
Dear: -Ran oracles into many more queens with energy -Lost many probes to runbys and banes -Cancelled storm
It's like there are other factors to consider there.
He flew into the queens once in the earlygame (and once when the game was over). He lost probes but always had a healthy count. He cancelled storm to hold the push but was pretty dead there anyways. So i dare to say if you dont fuck up the early like that mass oracle isnt that imba.
On September 04 2017 19:56 darklycid wrote: The one time dark doesnt loose 20 workers in the early but plays defensively he very much wins.
Dear: -Ran oracles into many more queens with energy -Lost many probes to runbys and banes -Cancelled storm
It's like there are other factors to consider there.
He flew into the queens once in the earlygame (and once when the game was over). He lost probes but always had a healthy count. He cancelled storm to hold the push but was pretty dead there anyways. So i dare to say if you dont fuck up the early like that mass oracle isnt that imba.
Yeah it definitely isn't imba on the Zerg's strongest map if the Protoss can't control their units versus the best Zerg in the world
On September 04 2017 19:56 darklycid wrote: The one time dark doesnt loose 20 workers in the early but plays defensively he very much wins.
Dear: -Ran oracles into many more queens with energy -Lost many probes to runbys and banes -Cancelled storm
It's like there are other factors to consider there.
He flew into the queens once in the earlygame (and once when the game was over). He lost probes but always had a healthy count. He cancelled storm to hold the push but was pretty dead there anyways. So i dare to say if you dont fuck up the early like that mass oracle isnt that imba.
Yeah it definitely isn't imba on the Zerg's strongest map if the Protoss can't control their units versus the best Zerg in the world
He lost 2 oracles when he flew into the queens and in the big fight he controlled the oracles quite well so nah.
On September 05 2017 01:10 Fango wrote: I don't think a Stats vs Dark final in both leagues will happen tbh. Dark needs 100% of his time to practice ZvT if he wants to beat Inno.
I'd say there's a 50% chance of Stats being in both finals, and maybe 30% chance of Dark being in both. That's 15% overall
Given that he's already in the SSL finals and the favorite in the GSL semis I'd say 50% is a bit low.
Stats is guaranteed SSL finals and favored to make GSL finals (albeit not hugely). Dark is favored against Classic and dead even with Inno. At a guess, Inno vs Stats and Dark vs Stats for GSL and SSL.
Though I would prefer to see Inno vs sOs, personally, so there isn't overlap. Stats will probably win one of the two, but likely not both.
Stats only has to beat sOs and then he is in both finals, that's pretty incredible. Looking at his results the past 12 months one has to start thinking about if it's maybe the best run we ever had considering all factors.
Dark vs Stats in both finals could definitely happen though it's obviously not extremely likely. But it's a decent chance tbh. If i had to guess i would say it's Inno vs Stats in GSL and Dark vs Stats in SSL.
On September 05 2017 01:10 Fango wrote: I don't think a Stats vs Dark final in both leagues will happen tbh. Dark needs 100% of his time to practice ZvT if he wants to beat Inno.
I'd say there's a 50% chance of Stats being in both finals, and maybe 30% chance of Dark being in both. That's 15% overall
Given that he's already in the SSL finals and the favorite in the GSL semis I'd say 50% is a bit low.
Nah, I'd put Stats' chance at 50%. All depends on if sOs shows up or not, he's one of the best PvPers of all time when he's in good form. Especially in a bo7
As for Dark, I'd give him like a 40% to beat Inno, and maybe 60% to beat Classic
Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
This is one of those comments that simply must be reposted after Dark gets knocked out in both semis, for the dramatic irony. Tempting fate. Counting your chickens. Pride goeth before a fall. Karma. There's a million names for the same flaw of arrogance.
Seriously though, while Dark is in great form, claiming that players like Classic and INnoVation will just roll over and die is waaaaay too bold.
Dark has a decent chance. Maybe he will make both finals, maybe he will win both Starleagues. Maybe not.
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
This is one of those comments that simply must be reposted after Dark gets knocked out in both semis, for the dramatic irony. Tempting fate. Counting your chickens. Pride goeth before a fall. Karma. There's a million names for the same flaw of arrogance.
Seriously though, while Dark is in great form, claiming that players like Classic and INnoVation will just roll over and die is waaaaay too bold.
Dark has a decent chance. Maybe he will make both finals, maybe he will win both Starleagues. Maybe not.
I will quote it myself in this very thread when he does.
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both.
Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both.
Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists
This.
As strong as Dark is--and he's very strong indeed, the best Zerg around right now--both Inno and Classic are old teammates of his who are very familiar with his playstyle, as well as being top-tier players in their own right. Artosis was just calling Inno the best player in the world on the same day Dark beat TY.
Both of them have just been treated to a great example of Dark's ZvT and ZvP against TY and Dear, respectively, two more top-tier players, so their insight into Dark's playstyle and form couldn't be better. Both of them have at least a week to prepare for one match, while Dark must prepare for two in a handful of days. Both of them are Dark's usual practice partners for ZvP and ZvT, and both of them have more on the line than Dark does.
Going into the GSL and SSL semifinals, both INnoVation and Classic have just about every advantage possible over Dark. The one thing Dark has going for him is also his biggest weakness--he's amply demonstrated his own form on the big stage while neither of them have played a top Zerg in weeks.
Dark is a great player, and he has a reasonable chance to win one series, or even both series. It is completely possible. It is also completely possible that Inno and Classic beat the ever-loving shit out of him, or that they just barely manage to defeat Dark in grueling 7-game series. Or anything in between.
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both.
Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists
People just don't think in probabilities
But yeah you are right ofc, even if Dark had the edge against Inno and Classic with 70%, the one scenario where he is in both finals would be the most likely scenario with 49%, but overall all otehr scenarios combined would still outweigh it making it "unlikely" (though tbf in that example it's basically 50-50 and thus fairly likely :D)
In reality Dark is the slight underdog vs Inno though, so at max 50% so his overall chances to reach both are way below 50%.
Stats already is in one final and he is the favorite vs sOs so his chances are above 50%. You disagree with him being a favorite apparently though, silly you
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both.
Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists
People just don't think in probabilities
But yeah you are right ofc, even if Dark had the edge against Inno and Classic with 70%, the one scenario where he is in both finals would be the most likely scenario with 49%, but overall all otehr scenarios combined would still outweigh it making it "unlikely" (though tbf in that example it's basically 50-50 and thus fairly likely :D)
In reality Dark is the slight underdog vs Inno though, so at max 50% so his overall chances to reach both are way below 50%.
Stats already is in one final and he is the favorite vs sOs so his chances are above 50%. You disagree with him being a favorite apparently though, silly you
To be honest, I think Dark might be better for Inno than TY would be. As I've mentioned before, INnoVation has a tendency to get arrogant and complacent when he's facing an opponent he knows he is superior to (Soulkey, Maru, Life, Stats, etc). And then it bites him in the ass. Even in his last series against ByuN, he boasted about not having practiced and then nearly got reverse-swept.
But when he respects his opponent, when he really decides to prepare and bring his A-game....well that's when we get the laughably onesided stomps that Inno is so famous for. It's not a coincidence that his most brutal beatdowns were in the finals.
Obviously, I would prefer that Dark put up one hell of a fight against Inno and show us some amazing TvZ games that will go down in history. But if some seer told me that this series would be a complete stomp and I had to put money on who the stomper was, I wouldn't be betting on Dark.
Well yeah i think Inno is the favorite vs Dark, it is hard to say what probabilities i would give the match though. A single map could be about 45-55 or 40-60, something along those lines. So for the whole match around 30-40% for Dark.
To get away from these boring probabilities though, yeah i hope we will get a sick match. Your point about Inno being arrogant here and there, yeah maybe but i feel that's kinda a narrative explanation even when Inno likes to imply it. Though i agree with the conclusion, if Inno is fully prepared he should win it.
TY is solid but predictable, easier for a Machine to rip apart with surgical precision. Dark can be an agent of chaos, hence more likely to frustrate and run rings around Inno.
Dark v Classic will likely be a train wreck stomp that can swing either way. Kinda like Classic v soO. Team mind games abound!
Remember when ByuL was the greates vs. mech Z that we've ever had and stomped all terrans on his way to the finals (of both starleagues) and then just kinda rolled over and died to Inno?
On September 05 2017 16:41 Sakat wrote: Remember when ByuL was the greates vs. mech Z that we've ever had and stomped all terrans on his way to the finals (of both starleagues) and then just kinda rolled over and died to Inno?
He stomped Inno on his way to the SSL finals and then got rekt by him in the GSL final.
ByuL is one of those underrated players than managed to dominate during times of serious imbalance
On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote: Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both.
This is one of those comments that simply must be reposted after Dark gets knocked out in both semis, for the dramatic irony. Tempting fate. Counting your chickens. Pride goeth before a fall. Karma. There's a million names for the same flaw of arrogance.
Seriously though, while Dark is in great form, claiming that players like Classic and INnoVation will just roll over and die is waaaaay too bold.
Dark has a decent chance. Maybe he will make both finals, maybe he will win both Starleagues. Maybe not.
I will quote it myself in this very thread when he does.
So yeah.....Inno did not, in fact, just roll over and die.
I guess Dark still has SSL. Best of luck to him there.