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On September 05 2017 09:15 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote:
Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both. No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both. Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists
People just don't think in probabilities 
But yeah you are right ofc, even if Dark had the edge against Inno and Classic with 70%, the one scenario where he is in both finals would be the most likely scenario with 49%, but overall all otehr scenarios combined would still outweigh it making it "unlikely" (though tbf in that example it's basically 50-50 and thus fairly likely :D)
In reality Dark is the slight underdog vs Inno though, so at max 50% so his overall chances to reach both are way below 50%.
Stats already is in one final and he is the favorite vs sOs so his chances are above 50%. You disagree with him being a favorite apparently though, silly you 
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On September 05 2017 09:44 The_Red_Viper wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2017 09:15 Fango wrote:On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote:
Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both. No one has a superb chance to beat Inno in a bo7. Let alone beat Inno and Classic in bo7s within 2 days of eachother. Even if he had a 70% to beat Inno (which he doesn't), and 70% to beat Classic, that's less than 50% to beat both. Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? Nope. Is Dark the only zerg on a level that could do it? Probably. But still, there's a reason that we almost never get dual finalists People just don't think in probabilities But yeah you are right ofc, even if Dark had the edge against Inno and Classic with 70%, the one scenario where he is in both finals would be the most likely scenario with 49%, but overall all otehr scenarios combined would still outweigh it making it "unlikely" (though tbf in that example it's basically 50-50 and thus fairly likely :D) In reality Dark is the slight underdog vs Inno though, so at max 50% so his overall chances to reach both are way below 50%. Stats already is in one final and he is the favorite vs sOs so his chances are above 50%. You disagree with him being a favorite apparently though, silly you
To be honest, I think Dark might be better for Inno than TY would be. As I've mentioned before, INnoVation has a tendency to get arrogant and complacent when he's facing an opponent he knows he is superior to (Soulkey, Maru, Life, Stats, etc). And then it bites him in the ass. Even in his last series against ByuN, he boasted about not having practiced and then nearly got reverse-swept.
But when he respects his opponent, when he really decides to prepare and bring his A-game....well that's when we get the laughably onesided stomps that Inno is so famous for. It's not a coincidence that his most brutal beatdowns were in the finals.
Obviously, I would prefer that Dark put up one hell of a fight against Inno and show us some amazing TvZ games that will go down in history. But if some seer told me that this series would be a complete stomp and I had to put money on who the stomper was, I wouldn't be betting on Dark.
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Well yeah i think Inno is the favorite vs Dark, it is hard to say what probabilities i would give the match though.
A single map could be about 45-55 or 40-60, something along those lines.
So for the whole match around 30-40% for Dark.
To get away from these boring probabilities though, yeah i hope we will get a sick match. Your point about Inno being arrogant here and there, yeah maybe but i feel that's kinda a narrative explanation even when Inno likes to imply it.
Though i agree with the conclusion, if Inno is fully prepared he should win it.
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TY is solid but predictable, easier for a Machine to rip apart with surgical precision. Dark can be an agent of chaos, hence more likely to frustrate and run rings around Inno.
Dark v Classic will likely be a train wreck stomp that can swing either way. Kinda like Classic v soO. Team mind games abound!
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juicyjames
United States3815 Posts
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Remember when ByuL was the greates vs. mech Z that we've ever had and stomped all terrans on his way to the finals (of both starleagues) and then just kinda rolled over and died to Inno?
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On September 05 2017 16:41 Sakat wrote:
Remember when ByuL was the greates vs. mech Z that we've ever had and stomped all terrans on his way to the finals (of both starleagues) and then just kinda rolled over and died to Inno?
He stomped Inno on his way to the SSL finals and then got rekt by him in the GSL final.
ByuL is one of those underrated players than managed to dominate during times of serious imbalance
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On September 05 2017 08:00 Myrddrael wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2017 07:20 pvsnp wrote:On September 05 2017 06:59 Myrddrael wrote:
Really? Dark has a superb chance to make it both finals.
He just took down Dear, who proves more problematic for him than Classic ever has. He beat INnoVation 3-0 a few weeks ago and just stomped TY 3-0. Dark is definitely making it to both finals, and probably winning both. This is one of those comments that simply must be reposted after Dark gets knocked out in both semis, for the dramatic irony. Tempting fate. Counting your chickens. Pride goeth before a fall. Karma. There's a million names for the same flaw of arrogance. Seriously though, while Dark is in great form, claiming that players like Classic and INnoVation will just roll over and die is waaaaay too bold. Dark has a decent chance. Maybe he will make both finals, maybe he will win both Starleagues. Maybe not. I will quote it myself in this very thread when he does.
So yeah.....Inno did not, in fact, just roll over and die.
I guess Dark still has SSL. Best of luck to him there.
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EPT
